探讨大饥荒的成因：集权、计划失误与政治行为的影响

本文评述此期《经济学（季刊）》关于中国大饥荒成因的两篇论文,并提出一个＂大跃进＂期间,国家集权、计划经济失误和干部政治行为相互作用,促发并加剧大饥荒的思路。     

灾害冲击、“大饥荒”与内生的财政分权

1959~1961年发生的"大饥荒"改变了政治集权体制下推行财政分权模式的路径,为中国后来的政府间财政关系奠定了基础。文章利用县级层面的数据,通过气象灾害引发粮食作物减产的外生冲击,检验了饥荒严重程度与财政分权度之间的因果关系。实证结果表明,饥荒越严重的县,其后来的财政分权度越低。财政分权可能内生于"大饥荒"之后中央通过财政集权加强对地方的控制、降低政治经济风险的需要。这一发现拓展了"大饥荒"长期影响、财政分权决定因素以及分成合约与风险分担等领域的相关文献,有助于更好地理解集权体制的运行模式以及县际财政分权度差异的形成机制。     

论行政集权体制对当代中国经济、政治的影响

在我国,由于民主制的不健全,行政集权体制已拓展至政治制度层面,脱离了民主制的制约.另外,腐败的行政集权体制还促使了官僚资本的产生.作为一种原始积累形式的资本,官僚资本与其他资本不同,它用其政治特权以直接掠夺的方式在流通和金融领域参与财产再分配.行政集权体制对中国当代的经济、政治造成了诸多影响.在经济方面,首先,行政集权体制所导致的官僚资本与公有制经济始终处于你强我弱的态势;其次,官僚资本的发展有其两面性,它一方面阻碍自由私有资本和小农经济的发展,另一方面,在某些商品经济发展落后的地区起到了一定的正面作用.在政治上,行政集权体制所衍生的行政特权,破坏了行政权、立法权、司法权和国有资产与资源占有权这四个公共权利之间的相互制约与平衡因而破坏了民主法制.     

经济作物、食物获取权与饥荒:对森的理论的检验

本文采用面板数据双向固定效应方法对中国1959—1961年饥荒发生时农村地区的死亡率差异进行分析,得出制度性因素是导致该差异的主要原因;第一个五年计划中的统购统销制度严重影响了随后发生的饥荒的地区性差异,其中缺粮区的衡定是一个关键因素。在所有缺粮区中,我们发现经济作物主产区的影响比传统缺粮区的影响要大得多。同时还对森的食物获取权理论和传统的食物供给量下降理论(FAD)的解释能力进行对比,发现前者在解释中国饥荒时更有效。     

“大跃进”运动与中国1958—1961年饥荒——集权体制下的国家、集体与农民

1958—1961年中国发生人类历史上最为严重的饥荒,现有研究从粮食供给下降、公共食堂、城市偏向政策、缺粮区偏向、政治激进主义、政府救济不力及饥荒的历史记忆角度对大饥荒成因提出了不同的解释。在赶超战略及＂大跃进＂运动的背景下,本文考察了人民公社内部分配制度,发现＂大跃进＂运动时期人民公社大幅度提高集体积累,农民个体可消费粮食急剧下降,这可能是＂大跃进＂饥荒的另一重要成因。本文利用1953—1966年省级面板数据证明了上述假说,并提出集权体制下农民个体政治权利的缺失是传统社会主义饥荒频发的主要原因。     

“政治集权,经济分权”与政府差别化税收策略研究

基于1998~2010年中国工业企业微观数据,本文研究了"政治集权,经济分权"规制下政府对企业的差别化征税行为对企业有效税率的影响。研究发现,"政治集权"与"经济分权"的政府都会降低企业税负以吸引或留住资本,促进区域经济发展,但"政治集权"下政府的征税参考因素更加多元化。在控制相关变量后,企业有效税率的高低主要受企业对区域经济增长贡献、企业空间移动能力和企业政治游说能力三方面因素的影响:企业对区域经济增长贡献越大,有效税率越低;企业的空间移动能力越强,有效税率越低;企业的政治游说能力越强,影响层级越高,有效税率越低。     

组织衰落如何影响组织创新:集权结构、冗余资源与环境丰腴性的作用

以往研究主要从组织成长视角探讨组织创新路径,鲜有文献研究组织衰落对组织创新的影响及其作用机制。基于前景理论、行为理论和公开市场理论等,探讨组织衰落驱动组织创新的机理,并从企业内部因素（集权结构、冗余资源）和外部条件（环境丰腴性）两方面探析组织衰落与组织创新关系的调节机制。实证结果显示：组织衰落与组织创新之间存在正相关关系;企业内部因素（集权结构和冗余资源）对组织衰落与组织创新的关系存在正向调节作用;企业外部条件（环境丰腴性）正向调节组织衰落与组织创新之间的关系。研究结果进一步丰富了组织创新路径理论,并对企业如何挖掘组织衰落的价值以促进创新实践具有一定的决策参考作用。     

1950年代粮食危机的研究:共识与展望

在20世纪50年代末,中国发生了大范围的粮食危机,并进而导致了巨大的人口损失。学术界自20世纪80年代开始就对此次历史事件展开了详细的研究,最近更是有一批高质量的文献关注饥荒的长期影响。现有研究在大饥荒所造成的非正常死亡人口规模,大饥荒爆发的核心区域,引起大饥荒的政策失误等方面已取得了共识。但在粮食征购的目的,公共食堂的重要性,饥荒的选择效应等方面还存在争议。因此,在关于大饥荒对人口的影响,公共食堂对大饥荒的作用,大饥荒对之后制度演进的作用等几个方向上应继续深入探索。     

半公营机构的兴起与政治市场中的理性行为

半公营机构的迅速兴起基于深刻的社会、经济和政治背景。自利动机和理性行为是政治市场中一切政治行为的基础,半公营机构的发展与政治市场中的理性选择密不可分,政治家的自利行为是推动半公营化发展的政治动因。     

"大跃进"运动与中国1958-1961年饥荒-集权体制下的国家、集体与农民

1958-1961年中国发生人类历史上最为严重的饥荒,现有研究从粮食供给下降、公共食堂、城市偏向政策、缺粮区偏向、政治激进主义、政府救济不力及饥荒的历史记忆角度对大饥荒成因提出了不同的解释.在赶超战略及"大跃进"运动的背景下,本文考察了人民公社内部分配制度,发现"大跃进"运动时期人民公社大幅度提高集体积累,农民个体可消费粮食急剧下降,这可能是"大跃进"饥荒的另一重要成因.本文利用1953-1966年省级面板数据证明了上述假说,并提出集权体制下农民个体政治权利的缺失是传统社会主义饥荒频发的主要原因.     

中国"大跃进"饥荒成因再辩-政治权利的视角

针对杨涛和范子英提出的评论意见,本文再次澄清以下问题:森的食物获取权理论是否适用于计划经济下的饥荒分析,"大跃进"运动中农村人民公社的集体高积累是否减少了农民口粮消费,大饥荒成因实证研究中的计量问题.最后,本文提出,发展一个包括政治权利在内的饥荒理论,是深入理解社会主义计划经济下饥荒问题的钥匙.     

Famine: Adam Smith and Foucauldian Political Economy

It is often assumed that the attitudes of the early political economists, such as Smith, to issues of scarcity and famine were dogmatically laissez‐faire. This view has been given fresh impetus by Michel Foucault's recently published lectures on the history of political economy. The article challenges this view. By examining Smith's texts and analyzing the way that Smith was received by critics in the century following the publication of the Wealth of Nations, the article argues that contemporary interpretations of Smith's views on scarcity and famine must be nuanced.     

指标管理的失败：“大跃进”与困难时期的官员造假行为

论文从高指标、高压出发,分析了20世纪50年代末到60年代初的“大跃进”与困难时期的官员造假基础,指出指标考核让造假成为官场的一种游戏规则,趋利避害是官员的正常行为。论文分析了几类造假动机和几种官员的造假,最后指出指标考核弊病的危害。     

Classical economics and the Great Irish Famine:A study in limits

The Great Irish Famine resulted from two massive failures: the blight that destroyed the potato crop and the non-interventionism of the English government. The first failure, which also occurred in other European countries, was devastating for the Irish who depended on the potato as their main source of nourishment. The second failure was a human failure because English government policy was instructed by classical economics to let the market clear the surplus population from the land and was reinforced by the anti-Irish racism common in England at the time, even among classical economists, notably Nassau Senior and J.S. Mill.     

Classical economics and the Great Irish Famine:A study in limits

The Great Irish Famine resulted from two massive failures: the blight that destroyed the potato crop and the non-interventionism of the English government. The first failure, which also occurred in other European countries, was devastating for the Irish who depended on the potato as their main source of nourishment. The second failure was a human failure because English government policy was instructed by classical economics to let the market clear the surplus population from the land and was reinforced by the anti-Irish racism common in England at the time, even among classical economists, notably Nassau Senior and J.S. Mill. For most of the 19th century, the English answer was to ignore the hate and crush the crime which [the land system] produced. In the forty years before 1870 forty-two Coercion Acts were passed. During the same period there was not a single statute to protect the Irish peasant from eviction and rack-renting.—Winston Churchill, The Great Democracies,p. 343. It is commonplace in economic research to assume that the investigator has removed all traces of personal values from his/her work. As Becker (1961, p. 10) implies, that could be a serious error. For that reason, let me state at the outset that I am a first-generation Irish-American, holding dual citizenship in the United States and the Republic of Ireland. My mother and father both were born and raised in County Mayo—the poorest county in western Ireland, where the toll in human lives lost during the Great Famine was staggering. I do not know how many of my own Irish ancestors suffered and died during the Great Famine. What I do know and acknowledge is that my selection of this topic clearly is related to that family background which also very likely influenced the way I have interpreted the evidence presented herein. I concede that someone else sifting through the evidence might come to different conclusions, but I know of no other way to proceed. Supportive comments by Hans Jensen and Peter Danner on earlier drafts are gratefully acknowledged, as are the suggestions made by the editor and an anonymous referee. Any remaining errors are entirely mine.     

专项转移支付存在的合理性:政治逻辑与实证检验

分税制改革在增强中央财政实力的同时,也带来了地方财权与事权不对称及地区财力差异的问题,转移支付成为中央平衡这些财力差异的重要手段。然而,它却没有起到应有的均等化效果。其中,专项转移支付饱受诟病却持续增长。研究表明,在我国特殊的政治经济制度下,专项转移支付的存在具有合理性。基于城市最低生活保障的实证分析,证实了专项转移支付确实能起到促进均等化的作用。目前,应通过建立监督机制,设计效益评价体系以及转变地方政府考核体系等来发挥其应有的功效。     

从退堂权的失而复得看"大跃进"饥荒的成因和教训

本文旨在利用最新的历史资料,采取历史逻辑方法,并从自由退出权的丧失和复得的经济学意义,揭示以剥夺自留地、取消家庭副业、对农民的全部口粮实行强制性集体化为标志的公共食堂的兴起、散伙、重新加强和最后的迅速解散,与"大跃进"饥荒的爆发、加剧及突然终结在时间上的重叠并非偶然,而是与这一退出权的丧失和复得有着深刻的内在因果关系.     

The Political Economy of Geoengineering as Plan B: Technological Rationality,Moral Hazard,and New Technology

Geoengineering would mask and reproduce capital’s contradictory needs to self-expand, on the one hand, and maintain a stable climate system, on the other. The Plan B frame, which presents geoengineering as a back-up plan to address climate change in case there is a failure to sufficiently reduce emissions (Plan A), is one means to depict this condition to the public and is a product of, and appeals to, a prevalent ‘technological rationality’. Despite its misleading simplicity, logical flaws, and irrational rationality, the Plan B frame is a relatively valid representation of geoengineering in current political-economic conditions. Although the Plan B frame will gain traction because Plan A is too expensive in the short term and does not serve powerful interests, there are alternative social futures in which technology could be used to address climate change in ways that preserve the environment and reduce social risks.