SOME PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES RAISED BY THE DEREGULATION OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Successful deregulation of financial institutions promotes flexibility and effeciency while avoiding the instabilities and abuses that characterized the financial system prior to the reform legislation of the 1930s. It is essential that deregulation nut undermine the efficacy of deposit insurance. The growth of money market funds has already resulted in a shift from insured to uninsured accounts. With deregulation there will be much larger shifts of funds to uninsured transactios accounts. In a deregulated world, it is essential that insurance be extended to cover transactions accounts, no matter who issues them, The paper also asserts that existing statutes are inadequate to deal with the conflicts of interest and anti-competitive practices that are likely to occur with deregulation. Safeguards should be established before deregulation goes any further. Finally, it is argued that in a deregulated environment, most forms of money will pay interest, and required reserves will disappear. While these developments will not destroy the efficacy of monetary policy, they will affect it. Little work has been done an the issue of monetary policy in a deregulated world. The paper discusses existing studies and suggests some topics for future research.     

THE ISSUES RAISED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF UTILITY PRIVATIZATION IN THE UK

ABSTRACT^**: The UK utilities have all had a change of ownership over the last decade and a half. Does it really change things and, if so, in what ways? In fact, very little research has been carried out on this much copied experiment and evidence on efficiency gains is not that strong. But two main things have emerged. First, regulation and competition are the key drivers of change. It may well be that privatization was needed in the UK to allow these things to happen. It does not follow, however, that in other industries, or other countries, change is dependent on privatization. Second, different groups gain and lose (in absolute and relative terms) from privatization. In the UK, shareholders and large consumers have gained far more than small consumers, ex-employees and the tax payer. In particular, the fact that low-income consumers have done less well than the generality of consumers raises important issues for social cohesion and for policy.     

FISCAL MULTIPLIERS DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: FISCAL AND MONETARY INTERACTION MATTERS

This study investigates the fiscal multipliers of 21 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries during the global financial crisis using panel vector auto regression methodology. Our findings suggest that the 1‐year fiscal multiplier was greater than 1 during the crisis, whereas it was less than 1 before the crisis because of different fiscal and monetary interactions. The combination of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis boosted gross domestic product more effectively through internal and external transmissions: investment crowding‐out was limited, and net exports were spurred by the policy interaction. In addition, our results are robust to various specifications. (JEL E61, E63, E65)     

金融包容：新型危机背景下金融地理学视阈的新拓展

新型危机背景下,金融空间结构由于路径依赖而呈现的刚性开始松动,金融包容成为实现社会公平、协调、增长、共赢的必需手段。它是金融排斥理念的拓展与深化,也是动态、多层次、复合维度理念,不仅包括微观供求主体的包容,也涵盖了区域层面的包容共生,即各区域经济、金融、社会的协调、城乡金融协调以及区际金融协调。影响金融包容的因素包括需求、供给与社会三个方面,其作用渠道与强度随国别、文化、历史、经济、社会的不同而有所差异,深度包容比宽度包容更为重要,不能将其简单理解为金融普惠。包容的精髓在于充分信息下所有参与主体的机会均等、自主选择与互利共赢。     

HOUSING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF A CREDIT SHOCK

We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis‐induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)     

THE BEHAVIOR OF U.S. PUBLIC DEBT AND DEFICITS DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

In this paper we test the sustainability of U.S. public debt for the period 1916–2012 by analyzing how the primary surplus to gross domestic product (GDP) responds to changes in the debt to GDP ratio in a time‐varying parameter model. Further, we determine the stationarity property of the debt/GDP ratio while accommodating possible breaks in the data caused by wars and economic crisis under both the null and alternative hypotheses of an endogenous unit root test. The results show that the U.S. public debt was sustainable until 2005 when the primary surplus to GDP reacted negatively to the debt/income ratio. This is further exacerbated during the global financial crisis when primary surpluses continued to fall with increased debt, thus jeopardizing the sustainability of fiscal policy. While the stationarity test shows that the U.S. fiscal debt/GDP ratio is sustainable, it fails to highlight the risk that its debt policy has been becoming unsustainable in recent years. (JEL H62, E62, C2)     

金融危机对跨国银行企业的影响——以花旗集团为例

以花旗集团为例,分析当前金融危机对跨国银行企业的影响.研究发现:金融危机造成花旗的利润下降,总资产缩水,股价波动;迫使花旗减少组织层级,在全球大规模裁员;同时金融危机迫使花旗停滞部分原有扩张计划,收缩成本高、风险大的市场.除此常规影响外,危机中花旗仍在一些国家和地区进行扩张,如新加坡、中国、菲律宾、墨西哥和巴西,这些国家多为新兴市场国家,具有长远战略地位,体现了跨国银行企业全球空间调整中获取超额利润的最终目的.从中得到启示:我国银行业企业应吸取花旗的经验,谨慎对待多元化经营战略,并不失时机地实施全球化战略.     

关于金融危机的十个问题

一场对世界经济和金融体系产生深远影响的金融危机,正在全球不断蔓延开来。对中国来说,如何从这场全球性金融危机中吸取经验教训、总结理论启示,是我们面临的重要任务。全球金融危机产生的原因、实体经济与虚拟经济的关系、国际货币体系改革、国际金融秩序重建、金融创新与监管、政府干预与市场原则、投资银行出现危机的原因、金融高杠杆、资产证券化的未来以及货币政策的目标选择等与金融危机相关的10个问题,是我们在理论上应该作出进一步思考的问题。     

危机转移视角下的金融危机解读

传统的危机态主要是以产能危机为核心特质的危机形态;而现代的危机态则是以信用危机为核心特质的危机形态。这两种危机态在发生机制、传导机制等方面存在着本质上的差异,这使得经典的危机"中心—边缘"结构假说在解释此次美国金融危机时陷入了理论困惑,但两种危机态的"中心—边缘"危机转移规律是不变的。我国应当在世界金融体系不断解构与升级的进程中准确地定位,加强监管,防范风险,从金融制度、金融工具乃至产业发展等方面采取积极有效的策略加以应对。     

论金融危机中财政救助的成本与收益

作为应对国际金融危机的主要力量,财政救助是促进全球经济企稳回升的关键,但与此同时也会带来财政赤字加重、道德风险上升等潜在成本。本文认为,政府在关注财政救助收益的同时,更要关注其风险及成本,以实现财政救助效用的最大化。     

金融危机背景下的中国经济增长

自金融危机爆发以来,中国经济乃至世界经济都受到了大小不同程度的影响,如何在恶劣的国际环境下发展我国的经济,成为目前我们要认真研究的课题。我们要在千方百计稳定经济的同时,淘汰、清理一批过时的生产力,着眼于扶持一批新兴产业,提前布局危机之后的经济发展。     

鲁比尼视野中的金融危机和经济危机

美国经济学家鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼因在西方经济学家中最早预言有可能爆发金融危机和经济危机而备受瞩目。危机爆发后,他跟踪研究,对危机提出了自己的若干独特见解。他尝试分析危机的原因,展望经济发展前景,提出应对危机的政策建议。但是,作为西方经济学家,他对危机根源等问题的认识具有明显的局限性。     

CURRENCY VERSUS BANKING IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1931

During the 1920s, Germany was the world's largest capital importer, financing reparations through U.S. credits. We examine financial channels in crisis transmission between these two countries around the German financial crisis of 1931. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find substantial crisis transmission from Germany to the United States via the financial channel, while monetary or financial crisis transmission from the United States to Germany was weak. We also find major real effects of the 1931 crisis on both economies, again transmitted via the financial channel.     

THE REGULATION OF MORTGAGE SERVICING: LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Pivotal litigation against the largest subprime mortgage servicer in the United States provides lessons about the appropriate regulation of mortgage servicing and adds to research about the causes of the financial crisis. Mortgage servicing is essential to the functioning of the financial system so servicers must be held to a high standard. The litigation revealed egregious practices but was settled quickly for a nominal amount and provided the servicer a very broad release of liability, allowing it to expand without correcting serious problems, and created significant wealth gains for the parent firm. Regulatory authority should not be split between agencies. (JEL G28, G21, K40)     

关于“十五”计划的几个问题

《国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要》准确反映了党的十五届五中全会提出的大政方针、发展目标、重大任务和主要政策措施,充分体现了国家战略意图,是我国国民经济和社会发展的行动纲领。     

东南亚区域发展与金融危机

本文从东南亚国家的发展角度探讨了其金融危机的必然性。认为始于 １９９７ 年的东南亚金融风暴并不是简单的金融信用危机，而是其经济发展模式的必然结果。经济发展过于依赖“外贸”和“外资”，为其经济发展的不稳定和爆发金融危机隐患之一；投资结构不合理，导致经济结构发展失衡，产业结构未能适时升级和转换，为其经济发展不稳定和日后爆发金融危机隐患之二；世界范围内区域经济一体化的冲击，动摇了东南亚国家经济基础，是其爆发金融危机的原因之三。     

CREDIT CRUNCH AND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE,THE CASE OF THE KOREAN FINANCIAL CRISIS*

We examine how the credit crunch in Korea in the late 1990s affected household behaviour and welfare. Using 1996–1998 household panel data, we estimate a consumption Euler equation, augmented by endogenous credit constraints. Korean households coped with the negative shocks of the 1997 credit crunch by reducing consumption of luxury items while maintaining food, education and health related expenditures. Our results show that, in 1997–1998, during the crisis, the probability of facing credit constraints and the resulting expected welfare loss from the binding constraints increased significantly, suggesting the gravity of the credit crunch at the household level.