Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place.     

Sustainable management of renewable resources: an experimental investigation in continuous time

This study addresses one of the most basic questions in renewable resource management: the ability of economic agents to exploit a renewable resource in an efficient and sustainable manner. In a laboratory experiment, subjects are presented with renewable resource extraction problems, where optimal management will lead to a stable steady state. A test of sustainability of the extraction practices shows that extraction behaviour results in steady states only 56% of the time. The mode of the steady state distribution coincides with the optimal steady state extraction. The trade-off between accruing a higher payoff in the present and sustaining the resource for future exploitation leads to suboptimal behaviours such as initial overextraction of the resource compared to the optimal extraction policy, costly downward adjustment of the extraction later in time, and settling down for lower long-run resource and extraction. The suboptimal behaviours lead to 17% loss in efficiency on average in terms of the accumulated payoff. We further look at extraction behaviour in terms of the degree of impatience it projects and find, based on their extraction decisions, that most of our subjects seem more impatient in managing their resource than is justified by the decision-making problem presented to them.     

The internalization of externalities in the production of electricity: Willingness to pay for the attributes of a policy for renewable energy

This paper investigates the willingness to pay of a sample of residents of Bath, England, for a hypothetical program that promotes the production of renewable energy. Using choice experiments, we assess the preferences of respondents for a policy for the promotion of renewable energy that: (i) contributes to the internalization of the external costs caused by fossil fuel technologies; (ii) affects the short-term security of energy supply; (iii) has an impact on the employment in the energy sector; and (iv) leads to an increase in the electricity bill. Responses to the choice questions show that our respondents are in favour of a policy for renewable energy and that they attach a high value to a policy that brings private and public benefits in terms of climate change and energy security benefits. Our results therefore suggest that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for electricity in order to internalize the external costs in terms of energy security, climate change and air pollution caused by the production of electricity.     

Energy transition under mineral constraints and recycling: A low-carbon supply peak

What are the implications of primary mineral constraints for the energy transition? Low-carbon energy production uses green capital, which requires primary minerals. We build on the seminal framework for the transition from a dirty to a clean energy in Golosov et al. (2014) to incorporate the role played by primary minerals and their potential recycling. We characterize the optimal paths of the energy transition under various mineral constraint scenarios. Mineral constraints limit the development of green energy in the long run: Low-carbon energy production eventually reaches a plateau. We run our simulations using copper as the limiting mineral and we allow for its full recycling. Even in the limiting case of a 100% recycling rate, after five to six decades green energy production is 50% lower than in the scenario with unlimited primary copper, and after 30 decades, GDP is 3–8% lower. In extension scenarios, we confirm that a longer life duration of green capital delays copper extraction and the green energy peak, whereas reduced recycling caps moves the peak in green energy production forward.     

International trade and renewable resources under asymmetries of resource abundance and resource management

This paper examines the interaction between relative resource abundance and resource management regimes in determining trade patterns and gains from trade in a two-country model with a renewable resource. A model developed by Brander and Taylor [Brander JA, Taylor MS (1997b) Resour Energy Econ 19:267–297] is extended. It is shown that relative resource abundance determines trade patterns if resource abundance is similar in both countries and the relative demand for the resource good is moderate, or if resource abundance is sufficiently different and the relative demand is not so high. Otherwise, a difference in resource management regimes determines trade patterns. Even under an open-access regime, the resource-scarce country gains from trade unless resource abundance is similar and the relative demand is low.      

Distribution of phosphorus resources between rich and poor countries: The effect of recycling

Phosphorus (P) is an essential input into agriculture with no substitute. Thus international and intertemporal P allocations greatly impact food security which requires increased food production for a growing world population. As high quality phosphorus mines are being depleted, recycling gains importance and developed countries explore new technologies for P recycling. We analyse the effects of P recycling in developed countries on global extraction of rock phosphates and the imports of developing countries. We build a resource extraction model for a competitive fertilizer market that reflects the fact that most developed countries have P-saturated soils while soils in many developing countries are P-deficient. Our model extends a simple cake eating problem. We consider two types of countries that differ in demand and recycling options. We find that P recycling in developed countries does not only prolong the resource life-time, but it also increases the developing counties' share of the resource.     

Shark hunting: On the vulnerability of resources with heterogeneous species

This paper examines the unprecedented decimation of sharks. In accordance with the biological characteristics and the economic environment of sharks, we extend the Brander-Taylor model of renewable resources and trade to a resource with a continuum of species which are heterogeneous with respect to their growth rate. The model implies that heterogeneity increases the vulnerability of a resource as relatively abundant species make harvesting economically viable even though slow-growing species are driven to extinction. The empirical analysis assesses the fate of sharks in the light of the model and finds that the likelihood of extinction is, indeed, significantly greater for shark species which exhibit low intrinsic growth.     

Quantifying landscape externalities of renewable energy development: Implications of attribute cut-offs in choice experiments

Renewable energy is worldwide seen as a key element necessary to address climate change. However, finding socially acceptable locations for renewable energy facilities and the accompanying infrastructure increasingly often faces fierce opposition. This paper quantifies the landscape externalities of renewable energies employing a choice experiment. In addition, it is investigated how accounting for non-compensatory choice behavior, i.e. attribute cut-offs, affects welfare measures and subsequently policy recommendations. The empirical application is Germany where we conducted a nationwide survey on the development of renewable energies. We first show that cut-off elicitation questions prior to the choice experiment at least partially influence preferences. We further find that most participants state cut-off levels for attributes. Many are, however, at the same time willing to violate the self-imposed thresholds when choosing among the alternatives. To account for this effect, stated cut-offs are incorporated into a mixed logit model following the soft cut-off approach. Model results indicate substantial taste heterogeneity in preferences and in the use of cutoffs. Also, welfare estimates are substantially affected. We conclude that welfare changes from renewable energy development could be strongly underestimated when cut-offs are ignored.     

Natural resources in the theory of production: the Georgescu-Roegen/Daly versus Solow/Stiglitz controversy

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical and methodological account of an important controversy between neoclassical resource economics and ecological economics from the early 1970s to the end of the 1990s. It shows that the assumption of unbounded resource productivity in the work of Solow and Stiglitz–and the related concepts of substitution and technical progress–rest on a model-based methodology. On the other hand, Georgescu-Roegen’s assumption of thermodynamic limits to production, later revived by Daly, comes from a methodology of interdisciplinary consistency. I conclude that neither side provided a definitive proof of its own claim because both face important conceptual issues.     

R&D decision support by parallel assessment of economic, ecological and social impact — Adipic acid from renewable resources versus adipic acid from crude oil

The concept of eco-efficiency has largely been applied along these years. This study proposes the earlier application of this concept, namely the R&D stage of a product. Together with the economic and ecological assessment, the social impacts were analysed in the production of adipic acid from renewable resources. Conventional adipic acid based on crude oil served as a benchmark. The work was carried out within the frame of the EU funded project BIOFOAM. The ecological aspects were addressed in the Life Cycle Perspective by performing a Life Cycle Assessment. The economic impacts were assessed by the application of the Life Cycle Costing under a ‘total production cost’ perspective. In this case, the addressee is interested in several steps of the value chain, but only of the steps that are related to the consortium as a single player in the value chain. The Life Cycle Working Environment method was used to assess the social impacts. Data sources were based on the project consortium, literature and statistics. Despite of the fact that the conventional routes still outperform the new bio-source based adipic acid, the application of this methodology has shown as successful way of identifying problem fields and paving further research.     

Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: A case study of renewable energy in Taiwan

This work presents a novel gray-based cost efficiency (GCE) model that integrates the gray forecasting model into a two-factor cost efficiency curve model for renewable energy (RE) technologies and identifies the optimal forecasting model for power generation cost of RE technologies. The analytical framework of proposed GCE model improves short-term prediction of power generation cost, and can be applied during the early developmental stages for RE technologies. Empirical analysis is based on wind power data for Taiwan. Time lag of knowledge stock was simulated to represent the actual relationship between R&D expenditures and cost reductions in power generation by knowledge stock. Analytical results demonstrate the GCE model is a useful tool to quantify the influences of cost reductions in power generation. The implications of analytical results are that institutional policy instruments play an important role in RE technologies achieving cost reductions and market adoption. The proposed GCE model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to RE technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed GCE model and directions for further research.     

Optimal exporting of exhaustible resources with endogenous trade revenue: The case of a resource-scarce and capital-short economy

This paper discusses a dynamic trade problem of a resource-scarce and capital-short open economy. In this economy, exhaustible resources are traded for foreign capital. Different from previous research on similar topics, the models in this paper allows for endogenous export revenue. The optimal trade behavior of the economy is discussed here. The efficiency conditions for the optimal trading under various assumptions are derived. These conditions correspond to the noted Hotelling rules in a closed economy. Finally, policy implications of the results are presented.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Resourceship</Emphasis>: An Austrian theory of mineral resources

Economists inside and outside of the Austrian-school tradition have formulated a subjectivist theory of mineral resources. While von Mises (1940) presented a rudimentary theory, institutionalist Zimmermann (1933 and after) provided an in-depth mind-centered approach distinct from the objective, neoclassical theory for minerals developed by Jevons (1865, 1866), Gray (1913), and Hotelling (1931). A full-fledged Austrian theory identifies the fixity/depletionism view of minerals as incompatible with entrepreneurship. Mineral resourceship, praxeologically akin to manufacturing, or the making of capital goods, demotes the distinction between depletable and nondepletable resources for the sciences of human action. Instead of nonreproducibility, the interplay of geography and institutions becomes the locus of mineral-resource theory, given the nonuniform distribution of deposits. An Austrian-institutional theory is more robust for explaining changes in mineral-resource scarcity than neoclassical depletionism, and offers a wide research agenda for current debates over resource production, usage, and future availability.

Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry: System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis

We present a dynamic model of the indigenous natural gas industry in the UK. The model has been built using a system dynamics approach. Using the model several scenarios have been analyzed. We found that management of the supply-side policy alone cannot substantially postpone the discovery, production and consumption peak. We also found that the dynamics of the main variables, namely, exploration, production and consumption, are sensitive to initial demand conditions. Postponing the onset of gas price increases can therefore be achieved more effectively through efforts to reduce demand growth. One might expect that a low taxation policy would encourage more exploration and production of gas and thereby stimulate higher consumption rates. Instead, there was no overall net effect on production and consumption in the long term. The depletion effect on cost of exploration acts as counterbalance to low taxation policy. Depletion effect causes cost and thus price to rise further which depress consumption rate. The advances in exploration and production technology can delay the peak of exploration, production and consumption. Technological improvements mean lower cost of exploration and production which pressure down the long-term pattern of price dynamics.     

The value of conserving genetic resources for R&D: A survey

The value of genetic resources for R&D is placed within the framework of discussions concerning sustainability. We assess the extent to which society is able to invest now in order to prepare for future risks and uncertainties in the arrival of biological problems. Each of the approaches to valuation is discussed within this setting. Weitzman's approach to measurement is seen to be one that considers society's current objectives and information to be little relevant to future risks and uncertainties. Sedjo, Simpson and Reids' search-theoretic perspective is seen to reduce future uncertainties to highly tractable and known problems. Goeschl and Swanson's bio-technological approach also constrains the problem to be one without any real uncertainty, and focuses on the need to maintain genetic resources in order to maintain control over the problem. Kassar and Lasserre place uncertainty at the core of the problem, and assess the extent to which additional value is added by this feature. In sum all of the approaches to the problem evince a pessimism regarding the capacity of future technological change automatically to resolve these problems. Given this, the value of genetic resources depends on beliefs concerning the ability of current objectives to anticipate future risks and uncertainties.     

Public support for reducing US reliance on fossil fuels: Investigating household willingness-to-pay for energy research and development

In order to reduce future dependence on foreign oil and emissions of CO₂, how much would US households be willing to pay annually to support increased energy research and development (R&D) activities designed to replace fossil fuels? Does it matter whether the R&D includes nuclear energy options? We explore these questions using data from a unique set of national telephone and Internet surveys. Using a national advisory referendum format, the contingent valuation method is applied to estimate annual household willingness-to-pay (WTP) for US household support of a national Energy Research and Development Fund (ERDF) for investments in energy sources not reliant on fossil fuels. While accounting for the level of (un)certainty in voting responses, the WTP modeling includes a comparison of both classic maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Bayesian analysis. Evidence indicates that MLE and Bayesian analysis achieve similar statistical inference, while the Bayesian analysis provides a narrower confidence interval around estimated WTP.     

A research of green taxation policy for promoting energy saving and emission reduction

It＇s been proved by theory and practice that taxation policy is one of the important means of realizing energy saving and emission reduction. The green taxation system in the Western countries has got better effects in energy saving and environmental protection. In the recent years, China has in succession released some taxation policies promoting energy saving and emission reduction, but still has a huge gap to meet the real needs of energy saving and emission reduction. By analyzing China＇s status quo of the polices of energy saving and emission reduction and drawing upon experiences of the developed countries about green taxation, this paper presents how to perfect ideas of China＇s energy saving and emission reduction taxation policies： adjusting taxes relevant to green taxation in the current taxation system, such as resource tax, consumer tax, and so on; collecting new environmental tax; perfecting the preferential taxation policies for the energy saving and environmental protection industries.     

Support to renewable energy sources and carbon capture and sequestration: comparison of alternative green tax reforms

We compare the economic and environmental effects of several specifications of a green tax reform (GTR) where tax revenues are used to support renewable energy sources (RESs) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) activities. With this aim, we propose an equilibrium model where final-goods production uses labour and energy, and energy production uses nonpolluting RES and polluting fossil fuels. The comparison is based on three key indicators: output per worker, energy intensity and the ratio of renewables over nonrenewables. We test five variations of the GTR in addition to the no-policy case. Results show that a GTR as the one we propose here never provides a double dividend. There are environmental benefits but at the expense of the economy. Additionally, for lower tax levels, prioritizing RES support has lower economic costs and potential environmental benefits. For higher tax levels, CCS support becomes more competitive.     

Study on security and protection of original ecotourism resources in the mountain areas of western Guangxi

Original ecotourism resources mainly refer to natural and human original ecotourism resources, and it＇s of fragility, rarity and irreversibility. As a valuable historic heritage and hnportant tourism resources, it plays a significant role in developing tourism and economy in such areas as the underdeveloped areas, the mountain areas and mimority areas. The tourism resources in the western mountain areas of Guangxi owe ,superiorities and characteristics ＇o their original ecology, Yet, western Guangxi is an ethnic region with fragile karst eco-environment, so it is specialto exploit the tourism resources. The paper defines original eeotourism and analyses the specialties and advantages of the original ecotourism resources as well as thefrailty of the ecotourism resources of the region. The ways of thinking are put forward for safe preservation and sustainable development of the original ecotourism resources, i.e. carrying out measures for the multi-grade protection of heritage resources, setting up a ethnic eco-museum/ ethnic culture eco-park and a gene pool of ethnic cultures, etc.