基于金融生态视角的金融中心形成机制研究

本文借鉴生态学的基本观念和方法,从金融生态的视角,构建了金融生态概念模型,分析金融中心的不同形成机制,并以深圳金融中心建设为例,验证和分析了基于金融生态视角的金融中心形成机制,最后得出了对我国金融中心建设的三条重要启示。     

宏观经济不确定性、融资约束与企业现金持有行为——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文建立一个简化的存货缓冲模型来形式化管理者的现金持有决策,并基于中国非金融类上市公司2001-2009年间的面板数据,考察不同融资约束条件下宏观经济不确定性对企业现金持有行为的影响。研究发现,宏观经济不确定性对企业的现金持有水平具有显著的正向影响;相比于低融资约束的公司,高融资约束公司的现金持有水平对宏观经济不确定性变化具有更高的敏感性。研究结果有助于增进对中国制度情境下企业流动性需求行为的理解。     

Executive Cash Compensation and Corporate Performance During Different Economic Cycles*

Current practice of management cash compensation is based on financial targets. The financial targets for a year may be above, equal to, or below the previous year's publicly available performance measures based in part on the prevailing economic conditions. Accordingly, during economic downturn, a flat relation between changes in management cash compensation and simple changes in corporate performance, like annual profits or return on equity, is predicted, while during economic growth, a positive relation is predicted between changes of management cash compensation and corporate performance measures. The evidence in this study is based on the period 1987‐95. Pooled, cross‐sectional results are consistent with the propositions of no relation between changes in management cash compensation and changes in measures of corporate performance during periods of economic downturn and significant positive relation during economic growth. Further sensitivity analysis of these results with respect to market‐based performance measures, size, and industry classifications confirm the main results.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm’s cash holding in China: The key role of asset reversibility

This paper investigates how asset reversibility affects the sensitivity of firm’s cash holding to economic policy uncertainty in China. Using the 2012 national input-output table for 139 industries, we measure the industry-level asset reversibility and match them with nonfinancial publicly listed firms over 2007−2017. The results show that asset reversibility has a significant and negative effect on the positive uncertainty-cash holding sensitivity, especially for firms with more severe financial constraints. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher asset reversibility invest more in fixed assets, suggesting that real investment is an important mechanism. In addition, baseline results are robust to potential endogeneity and alternative measures of asset reversibility and economic policy uncertainty. Our findings reveal that asset market friction is a critical determinant of firm’s cash holding.     

中部地区县域金融需求发展的实证分析和对策研究——以河南舞阳为例

中部地区县域金融需求分析对于提高当地经济的发展水平,快速实现农村经济的工业化和现代化有重要意义。本文以舞阳县的有关资料为样本,用近十年来的数据建立了舞阳县商业贷款需求和经济增长的计量模型,得出两者的正相关关系,并由此提出发展和完善县域金融市场的政策建议。     

有效实现地方国库现金管理的建议

国库现金管理有利于提高财政资金的使用效益,是财政国库管理体系的重要组成部分。地方国库现金管理是指在确保地方国库现金支出需要的前提下,实现地方国库闲置现金余额最小化,投资收益最大化的一系列财政资金管理活动。作为地方国库现金管理工作,应从健全相关法律法规、丰富运作模式、建立现金流量预测机制、调节各部门关系、协调货币政策等多个方面,完善我国地方国库现金管理制度,推进地方国库现金管理改革。     

International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views,Theory and Evidence

This paper compares the importance of precautionary and mercantilist motives in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. Overall, empirical results support precautionary motives; in particular, a more liberal capital account regime increases international reserves. Theoretically, large precautionary demand for international reserves arises as a self-insurance to avoid costly liquidation of long-term projects when the economy is susceptible to sudden stops. The welfare gain from the optimal management of international reserves is of a first-order magnitude, reducing the welfare cost of liquidity shocks from a first-order to a second-order magnitude.

“撤县设区”如何影响财政收支?——基于激励视角的再研究

文章从激励差异视角重新考察\"撤县设区\"的财政收支效应。基于广东的区划改革和转移支付政策实践构造一个\"准试验\"样本,样本期内既有\"撤县设区\"案例,也涉及省财政对县区激励性转移支付政策的重大调整,因而能够区分二者对财政收支的影响。分析过程包括两步,首先,基于倾向得分匹配和双重差分（PSD-DID）方法,发现\"撤县设区\"降低了县区财政收支增速;其次,依据激励性转移支付政策变化构建三重差分（DIDID）考察\"撤县设区\"政策效应的产生机制,发现财政激励差异是导致\"撤县设区\"政策效应的原因。文章为检验\"撤县设区\"等行政区划调整如何影响当地发展提出一种识别机制,并发现激励落差是导致\"撤县设区\"影响财政收支的背后机制,而\"撤县设区\"本身的影响不显著。     

数字金融如何影响农户正规信贷需求?

基于2015-2019年中国家庭金融调查数据和北大数字普惠金融指数,构造面板数据,使用面板Probit模型、工具变量法和机制检验模型实证检验数字金融对农户正规信贷需求的影响.研究发现,数字金融显著提高了农户生产性正规信贷需求和消费性正规信贷需求的概率.进一步研究发现,数字金融主要通过促进金融知识积累进而提高家庭生产性正规信贷需求,对消费性正规信贷需求的促进作用则通过数字支付渠道实现.     

F-字典偏好与稳定匹配

研究有同事效应的双方匹配博弈的稳定性。利用拒绝-接受算法证明了,当工人具有F-字典偏好而企业具有替代性偏好时,稳定匹配一定存在。同时,给出了F-对应偏好的定义,得出在F-对应偏好下,企业一方存在一个最优稳定匹配,工人一方存在一个稳定匹配将每一个工人与他最偏好的企业匹配。     

金融改革：制度容量扩张与金融的区域化、精细化

本文回顾和总结了我国金融改革60年来特别是近30年来取得的成就,并从制度容量的角度解释了金融改革的主要变化,指出了金融区域化和精细化的发展趋势以及由此带来的对金融业的影响。     

COVID-19 impact on firm investment—Evidence from Chinese publicly listed firms

The COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on business cash flows and investment activities. This paper examined the COVID-19 impact on Chinese business investment in 3326 A-share listed quarterly financial reports, from which it was found that the negative relationship was more pronounced in the large, eastern Chinese state-owned firms. Using a propensity score matching method and difference-in-differences estimation, corporate financial flexibility was also examined, with the results indicating that high cash flexibility provided a buffer that allowed firms to better deal with adverse external shocks as the firms that had high cash flexibility were able to significantly increase their investments after the COVID-19 outbreak. Various robustness tests were conducted, all of which verified the robustness of the results. Overall, the empirical results provided evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic in China had a negative impact on Chinese listed firms, and verified the vital role of flexible financial reserves for firm survival and development during crises.     

我国上市公司股利分配现状探析

上市公司股利政策作为一项重要的财务决策,体现了企业各类投资者、管理者等主体之间的利益分配关系。本文首先介绍了我国上市公司股利分配的现状,然后从委托代理角度进行了得出我国投资者和上市公司的短期行为比较严重,最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

基于会计信息的上市公司财务风险及其预警研究

本文从投资者应对上市公司会计报告这个角度对上市公司的财务风险进行了分析,首先从会计信息和投资风险的内在联系进行了阐述,在对财务失败和财务失真两方面的风险进行理论界定和对其具体内容进行研究的基础上,对综合财务风险预警问题进行了探索。     

Accounting Information and CEO Compensation: The Role of Cash Flow from Operations in the Presence of Earnings*

We examine the role of cash flow from operations (CFO) in chief executive officer (CEO) cash compensation. We predict that CFO is contract‐relevant in the presence of earnings, and more so when (1) the quality of earnings relative to the quality of CFO as a measure of performance is low and (2) the need for CFO as a financing source is high. Our analysis is motivated principally by normative arguments and anecdotes from financial disclosures linking CFO to managerial effort and contracts, notwithstanding the traditional role of earnings in performance measurement. We find that the weight of CFO in the compensation model is positive and significant in the presence of earnings and stock returns. We also find that the relative quality of CFO compared with that of earnings has a positive (negative) impact on the weight of CFO (earnings). We further find that the relative weight of CFO is enhanced substantially when enterprise activities crucially depend on internally generated cash flow. These findings are unaltered when we include CEO age, firm size, and risk in the model and allow the coefficients to vary across industries.     

积极应对全球金融危机,完善我国金融监管法律

为应对金融危机,我国可从完善以中国人民银行为总协调人的法定监管协调法律、建立与巴塞尔新资本协议相配套的金融监管法律体系、加强国际金融监管协调与合作完善国际金融监管体系、改变监管方式,以功能监管为主,机构监管为辅、对客户存款保险进行立法等方面加强金融监管完善金融监管法律。