The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices

During the late 1970s, U.S. house prices were appreciating rapidly even though mortgage interest rates were climbing. Recently, interest rates have eased but prices have moderated. This study examines the role of appreciation expectations in overcoming the negative effects of nominal mortgage interest rates on house prices. Expectations of future appreciation are important determinants of house sales prices, remaining influential during periods of declining and moderating real prices, not just when prices are rising. The real rate of interest, as viewed by the homebuyer, is the mechanism for affecting change in housing price levels. Because the nominal interest rate is slow to reflect changes in expectations, these real rates vary over time. This ebb and flow of real interest rates appears to explain market price levels. Nominal rates play a role as well, primarily in the formation of appreciation expectations.     

Illiquidity and its discontents: Trading delays and foreclosures in the housing market

The macroeconomic effects of housing illiquidity are analyzed using a novel directed search model of housing with long-term debt and default. Debt overhang emerges when highly leveraged sellers are forced to post high prices that produce long selling delays. These delays increase foreclosures, raise default premia, and curtail credit. Cheaper credit fuels temporarily higher house prices, faster sales, and fewer foreclosures, but the borrowing surge facilitates future debt overhang and default. More stringent foreclosure punishments also expand credit and, therefore, either generate higher foreclosures or more debt overhang. Leverage caps avoid this conundrum but reduce welfare by restricting borrowing.     

Does credit rationing affect residential investment? Déjà vu all over again

This paper develops an empirical model to examine the impacts of credit rationing on residential investment for the 1960–1984 period. Our statistical results strongly support the position that noninterest rate variables affect mortgage activity and housing construction. Though we find a structural change in the housing construction and mortgage markets in the early 1980s, probably attributable to capital market integration and financial institutional deregulation, noninterest rate terms continue to matter. In other words, credit rationing continues to be an allocative device in the housing and mortgage markets.Earlier versions of this article have been presented at the Western Economic Association Conference, Los Angeles, June 1988; the Tenth Pacific Regional Science Conference, Pusan, Korea, July 1987; the AREUEA Annual Meetings New York City, December 1985; and the American Finance Association Annual Meetings, San Francisco, December 1983.     

Why do national GAAP differ from IAS? The role of culture

In this paper, we investigate the role of culture as an explanatory factor underlying differences between national GAAP and International Accounting Standards (IAS). National GAAP can differ from IAS in two ways: (1) divergence: both national GAAP and IAS cover a specific accounting topic but prescribe different methods; or (2) absence: national GAAP do not cover an accounting issue regulated by IAS. Based on Nobes' [Nobes, C. (Ed.) (2001). Gaap 2001—A Survey of National Accounting Rules Benchmarked Against International Accounting Standards. IFAD.] data, we construct a measure for the level of divergence of national GAAP benchmarked on IAS. We also create a measure (labeled absence) to assess the scope of national accounting rules compared to IAS. Our sample is made up of 52 countries. We show that culture matters more than legal origin (common law/civil-law) in explaining divergences from IAS. This result is robust to two proxies for culture: Hofstede [Hofstede, G. (2001). Culture's Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions and Organizations Across Nations. Second, Sage Publications (London).] and Schwartz [Schwartz, S. H. (1994). Beyond individualism/collectivism: New cultural dimensions of values. In U. Kim, H. C. Triandis, C. Kagitcibasi, S. C. Choi, & G. Yoon (Eds.), Individualism and collectivism: Theory, method and applications (85–119). Sage.]. Our findings contribute to the ongoing debate on accounting harmonization. More specifically, they suggest that the technical and/or political dimensions of the debate, although essential, are not the only ones involved. Opposition to IAS is not exclusively driven by contractual motives, a claimed technical superiority, or legal origin, but also by diversity in cultural factors. Another contribution of this paper is the development of a two-dimensional score to measure the differences between national GAAP and IAS.     

Mortgage credit growth for lower-income borrowers during the 2000s housing boom: Evidence and implications

I examine the relationship between mortgage credit and borrower income from 1993 to 2009. I find that the relationship was positive throughout this period. However, it became significantly flatter (i.e. less positive) from 1998 to 2006, implying that growth in mortgage credit was most substantial for lower-income borrowers during this time. The evidence suggests that a disproportionate share of credit growth during the boom accrued to borrowers that previously would have had the most limited access to mortgage credit. This is consistent with the view that the housing crisis of the mid-2000s was precipitated by a dramatic expansion in the supply, or availability, of mortgage credit and that this expansion began as early as the late 1990s.     

Forecasting state- and MSA-level housing returns of the US: The role of mortgage default risks

We analyze the ability of an index of mortgage default risks (MDRI) for 43 states and 20 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) of the US derived from Google search queries, in predicting (in- and out-of-sample) housing returns of the corresponding states and MSAs, based on various panel data and time-series approaches. In general, our results tend to prefer the panel data model based on common correlated effects estimation. We highlight that growth in MDRI negatively impacts housing returns within-sample, with predictive gains primarily concentrated beyond a year. These results are robust to alternative out-of-sample periods and econometric frameworks. Given the role of house prices as a leading indicators, our results are of value to policymakers, especially at the longer-run.     

The moderating effects of national culture on escalation of commitment

This study tests the cross-cultural sensitivity of three determinants of escalation of commitment: agency conditions, negative framing, and self-justification. A multiple-case experiment, using a sample of 1208 managers and MBA students surveyed over several years in nine countries investigated the moderating effects of national culture. We find that the effect of negative framing on escalation of commitment is significant, but unaffected by differences in national cultures. The adverse selection problem arising from agency predictions has a stronger effect in high-individualism countries than in low-individualism countries, and managers in higher long-term orientation countries are more likely to escalate projects with potential long-term payoffs.     

The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing boom and bust

From 1999 to 2013, U.S. mortgage debt doubled before contracting sharply. I estimate mortgage inflows and outflows that shed light on the sources of volatility. During the boom, inflows from real estate investors tripled, far outpacing other segments such as first-time homebuyers. During the bust, a collapse in inflows keyed the debt decline, while an expansion of outflows due to defaults played a more minor role. Inflow declines partly reflect a dramatic falloff in first-time homebuying, especially for low credit score individuals. Further analysis helps support the notion that the differential decline by credit score reflects markedly tightened credit supply.     

The “Rent-To-Own” mortgage and prepayment risk

The most important risk factor in the mortgage and mortgage-backed security market has been prepayment risk. Various innovations have arisen to deal with it but none hedge it fully. The Rent-To-Own (RTO) mortgage discussed here is a mortgage instrument that reduces or even reverses prepayment risk. It does so by creating an incentive structure within the framework of the mortgage contract that penalizes prepayment when interest rates are low and rewards it when interest rates are high. This is the opposite of standard mortgages. The RTO incentive structure is based on a unique buyout feature. Borrowers who want to buy out the financial interest of the lender may do so whenever they want, but the buyout price is a negative function of the market interest rates prevailing currently, that is, at the time of the buyout. Hence the lower these rates, the higher the buyout price. Other advantages of the RTO mortgage are also described.     

Housing,mortgage bailout guarantees and the macro economy

What are the macroeconomic and distributional effects of government bailout guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises (e.g., Fannie Mae)? A model with heterogeneous, infinitely lived households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed to evaluate this question. Households can default on their mortgages via foreclosure. The bailout guarantee is a tax-financed mortgage interest rate subsidy. Eliminating this subsidy leads to a large decline in mortgage origination and increases aggregate welfare by 0.5% in consumption equivalent variation, but has little effect on foreclosure rates and housing investment. The interest rate subsidy is a regressive policy: it hurts low-income and low-asset households.     

美国住房金融体系及其经验借鉴——兼谈美国次贷危机

本文系统地介绍了美国住房金融体系的发展历史和现状特点,重点分析了公共住房政策在美国住房金融体系中的体现,以及次级抵押贷款危机的原因和应对措施,总结了美国住房金融体系的经验和教训,为我国进一步深化金融体制改革、完善住房金融市场建设,提供了可资借鉴的经验。     

The impact of interest rates,income, and employment upon regional housing prices

The objective of this article is to identify important differences in the way new housing prices react to local and national economic factors. The study finds that regional housing prices react uniformly to certain national economic factors, such as mortgage rates. On the other hand, local factors such as population shifts, employment, and income trends often have a unique impact on housing prices. The study rejects the hypothesis of a single national housing market in favor of one that allows for broad national trends to be superimposed upon unique regional markets.     

Mortgage defaults

A life-cycle model is developed in which households face income and house-price risk and buy houses with mortgages. This model, which accounts for key features in U.S. data, is used as a laboratory for prudential policy. Recourse mortgages increase the cost of default but also lower equity and increase payments. The effect on default is nonmonotonic. Loan-to-value (LTV) limits increase equity and lower the default rate, with negligible effects on housing demand. Combining recourse mortgages and LTV limits reduces the default rate while boosting housing demand. Together, they also prevent spikes in default after large declines in aggregate house prices.     

National culture and small firms' use of trade credit: Evidence from Europe

We examine the use of trade credit in Western Europe by relying on a sample of 182,296 small firms for the period 2003–2013. Building on information asymmetry theory, we explore how a country's culture can impact SMEs use of trade credit. We discover that countries' cultural norms play a key role in explaining trade credit differences in Europe. We find that in countries with high power distance, high individualism, high masculinity, and high uncertainty avoidance rely more on trade credit.     

Government intervention in the housing market: Who wins,who loses?

Many U.S. government policies aim to encourage homeownership. We use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to consider the effects of temporary homebuyer tax credits and the asymmetric tax treatment of owner-occupied and rental housing on prices, quantities, allocations, and welfare. The model suggests that homebuyer tax credits temporarily raise house prices and transaction volumes, but have negative effects on welfare. Removing the asymmetric tax treatment of owner-occupied and rental housing can generate welfare gains for a majority of agents across steady states, but welfare impacts are substantially more varied along the transitions between steady states.     

National culture and bank performance: Evidence from the recent financial crisis

We examine whether the prevailing national culture has been material in determining bank performance during the recent financial crisis. In this paper, we focus on three particular national culture dimensions: uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism, and power distance. We expect banks from high uncertainty avoidance and power distance societies to perform relatively better during the recent financial crisis. On the other hand, banks in individualistic (collectivist) societies are likely to perform worse (better) during the crisis. Using an international sample of 3438 banks from 48 countries, we find support for our main conjectures. Specifically, we establish that uncertainty avoidance, collectivism, and power distance have a first order impact on bank performance during the crisis. Our results are robust to a battery of additional checks, including additional variables, alternative samples, and correcting for potential endogeneity.     

Optimal fiscal zoning that distorts housing consumption

When entrants to Tiebout-type communities face limited alternatives, local governments possess some monopoly power over the use of land within their boundaries. One way they exercise that power is through fiscal zoning which attempts to extract tax revenues from newcomers in excess of the cost of the local services they consume. Ideally, the community would like to do this by regulating the newcomers' tax bases, but in practice this is impossible. Thus, indirect methods such as minimum lot size zoning are necesary. Since it is not possible to control all inputs into the production of housing, however, zoning is distortionary. This article examines the impact of the distortions of minimum lot size zoning on the ability of local governments to implement fiscal zoning.     

The spatial demand for housing with uncertain quality

This article extends the models of household location and the spatial housing market to examine the impact of uncertain housing quality on the demands for housing and location and the spatial characteristics of the housing price and consumption gradients. The well-known basic predictions of the certainty models remain qualitatively unaltered: equilibrium housing price is still decreasing convex, and (planned) housing consumption increases with commuting distance. Quality risk by itself, though, is seen to reduce the demand for housing and increase the demand for CBD proximity in the location choice model and decrease the equilibrium housing price at all locations in the competitive spatial housing market. The effect of quality risk on the consumption gradient comprises two offsetting effects arising from the increase in risk and the decrease in equilibrium housing price.     

次贷危机、信息不对称和指数交易

次贷危机源于房价上涨停滞后的次贷及其衍生品市场的快速萎缩,信息不对称在危机爆发前风险累积阶段和危机后市场过度反应阶段都是关键因素.次贷及其衍生产品设计繁复且对房价系统性下跌高度敏感,次贷的衍生产品多在场外市场交易使得危机前相关信息未被充分披露.随着指数交易的陆续推出,如基于次债的ABX.HE指数和CME的房地产价格指数期货期权合约,使房价、次贷及其衍生产品的概括性信息得以揭示,基于信息不对称因素的恐慌加重了危机程度.综上,本文针对衍生品设计和市场的完善提出了建议.     

The good,the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mortgages. In contrast to the popular stock delinquency approach, this model provides estimates of default and cure flows: a requirement of the stress test approach adopted by the European Central Bank's comprehensive assessment. In addition, both default and cure transitions are modelled as functions of micro- and macro-covariates including loan characteristics and current macroeconomic conditions such as house prices and unemployment. When comparing the competing equity and affordability effects, labour market deterioration played a stronger role than house equity in the rise of Irish default rates. For cures, a scarring effect of default is identified and estimated with the probability of a loan returning to performing reducing by almost four per cent each month a loan remains delinquent.