央行：实施好稳健货币政策

中国人民银行12日发布的《2011年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》称,物价形势仍不乐观。下一阶段要实施好稳健的货币政策。     

简单稳健的货币政策

着重介绍简单规范性的货币政策,央行可以用它来指导他们的利率决策规则,这些规则首先来自于20世纪70年代和80年代的黏性价格与理性的预期的实证货币模型的研究。在过去二十年,在确立这些规则的强健性方面已经取得了实质性进展,他们在各种更新、更严格的模型和政策评价方法中表现的很好,简单的规则也经常比完全最优的规则的更加稳健,在对于如何调整简单的规则来处理测量误差和期望也取得了重要进展。此外,历史经验表明,简单的规则可以在现实世界中运行的很好,因为央行的决策按这些规则指导执行时宏观经济表现已经比较好。最近的金融危机并没有改变这些结论,但它引起了对于如何处理资产泡沫和零利率约束的重要研究。     

未来三年我国应继续实施稳健的货币政策

由于我国现阶段市场运作机制尚不健全 ,经济发展不平衡的矛盾比较突出 ,货币供应不足不是物价下跌的唯一因素。在这种经济背景下 ,实行积极的货币政策只能会进一步加剧经济发展的不平衡性 ,使经济生活中的矛盾进一步加深。未来三年继续实行稳健的货币政策 ,为经济运行提供相对稳定的货币环境是我国货币政策取向的最佳选择。     

货币政策今年将延续“稳健”

今年央行仍然会继续“稳健的货币政策”,但具体措施却有了变化。近日,央行召开的2014年工作会议提出,今年将继续实施稳健的货币政策,不断完善调控方式和手段,增强调控的前瞻性、针对性和协同性。而去年的表述则是“保持政策的连续性和稳定性”。在不少业内人士看来,央行对货币政策表述的改变,是为应对今年国内经济更多的不确定性。     

规则性货币政策框架与相机抉择原则——关于2006年我国货币政策的基本取向和政策选择

针对当前我国宏观经济面临的矛盾和困难,通过分析货币政策总体取向、最终目标、中间目标和工具组合的选择,建议将规则性和相机抉择有机结合。     

如何看待货币政策的稳健与紧缩

首先研究了中国经济发展和对货币政策的影响,然后运用OLS回归分析法分析了货币供给量对国内生产总值GDP影响,发现了稳健的货币政策对经济的发展有着最优的影响,从而提出了实行稳健的货币政策的主张。运用因果联系识别法分析了货币的增长率对国民生产总值的影响,提出了实行稳健的货币政策,以能使社会资源得到最大的利用。     

规则性货币政策框架与相机抉择原则——关于2006年我国货币政策的基本取向和政策选择

针对当前我国宏观经济面临的矛盾和困难,通过分析货币政策总体取向、最终目标、中间目标和工具组合的选择,建议将规则性和相机抉择有机结合.     

最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 ,并提出改进的方案     

试论通货膨胀定标的货币政策规则在我国的适用性

从实践上看,20世纪90年代中有些国家采用了通货膨胀定标的货币政策规则,达到了一定的经济增长和稳定的通货膨胀的效果。本文以此为出发点,首先分析了通货膨胀定标框架下的货币政策的优点与缺点,然后指出了就这一框架运行成功的前提条件,最后对我国央行采取通货膨胀定标的可行性和适用性进行探讨。     

中国最优货币政策的选择、比较和影响——基于混合型新凯恩斯模型的实证研究

文章通过构建和估计一个混合型新凯恩斯模型,首次检验了中国最优货币政策的类型,并系统比较了相机抉择和事先承诺的货币政策对中国经济的影响。文章综合运用极大似然估计法、反事实仿真、似然比检验、贝叶斯信息准则、二阶矩比较和脉冲响应等方法研究发现:(1)我国实施的货币政策与最优货币政策不存在显著差异,我国的最优货币政策类型是相机抉择的货币政策;(2)在我国,相机抉择、事先承诺的货币政策和最优泰勒规则都把产出稳定作为最重要的政策目标,其次是通胀稳定;(3)相对于事先承诺,相机抉择的货币政策使我国的产出和通胀更不稳定,并造成更大的社会福利损失;(4)在我国货币政策调控中,最优泰勒规则可以很好地近似和代替事先承诺的货币政策。     

Unconventional monetary policy,liquidity trap,and asset prices

This article offers a fundamental critique of monetary policy implemented in the United States following the 2007–8 global financial crisis. It aims to show that the misunderstanding of the mainstream theoretical thinking underlying monetary policy actions led to the ineffectiveness of the policy response to the 2007–8 global financial crisis. The conventional view that monetary policy is the stabilization tool has serious flaws and is ineffective for bringing about economic recovery. The Federal Reserve’s experiment with the so-called unconventional monetary policy exposed the weakness of the conventional belief in understanding how banks operate, how the monetary authority can influence the yield curve, and how the monetary transmission mechanism works, resulting in prescribing an ineffective treatment to boost economic activity. In this regard, it is argued that the Federal Reserve’s decision to let long-term interest rates be market determined represents a significant self-imposed constraint, which limits policy options regarding monetary policy actions and the effective control of long-term interest rates. By limiting the setting of policy rates only to the overnight interest rate, the ability of the monetary authority to influence long-term interest rates is both weak and indirect.     

EMU and the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from business lending rates

This paper analyses the pass-through of money market rates to short-term and long-term business lending rates in the four largest euro area countries. The main findings of the paper are (1) that since the start of EMU loan rates appear to have become more responsive to money market rate changes in France, Italy and Spain, but not in Germany, and (2) that German loan rates are significantly more sluggish than loan rates in the other three large euro area countries. I also test for non-linear pass-through based on an asymmetric error-correction model but do not find much evidence of non-linearity in euro area interest rate pass-through.The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.     

ECB monetary policy and commodity prices

We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ an SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial crisis. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on commodity prices during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, indicating the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools. The largest impact is documented on energy (fuel) and food commodities. Our results also suggest that the effect of ECB monetary policy on commodity prices transmits through the exchange rate channel, which influences European market demand.     

An interest-rate-spread-based measure of Turkish monetary policy

A coherent method to measure the effectiveness of a monetary policy improves the monetary authority’s management capacity and renders the possibility of applying sound policies prior to and during a crisis. The trend in employing complicated and ambiguity-bearing unconventional monetary tools in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis has increased the value of such a method. The aim of this article is to introduce a coherent and consistent monetary policy evaluation method for Turkey. Accordingly, we suggest that innovations in the spread between overnight interest rates and Treasury auction interest rates are informative for exchange rate, output, and prices. Empirical evidence for this identification reveals that positive innovation in spread (implying a tight monetary policy measure) decreases output temporarily, permanently decreases prices, and appreciates local currency. This result is also robust to alternative specifications.     

当前我国央行货币政策走向分析

今年以来,固定资产投资继续快速增长,货币信贷居高不下,我国经济过热的风险仍然存在.央行在将近4个月的时间里先后两次提高存款准备金率,两次提高利率以抑制过快增长的货币信贷.本次货币政策的目的将限于通过抑制信贷过快膨胀来平滑经济增长,其理想效果是防热而不会致冷."稳健"仍会是央行的货币政策基调.继续加息不是央行的最优选择,高固定资产投资、高经济增长速度仍将是今后较长一段时期内我国经济发展的特点.     

Quantitative easing tilts the balance between monetary and macroprudential policy

Quantitative easing by central banks has stimulated risk-taking in financial markets and contributed to a liquidity-driven boom in asset prices. It puts the relation between monetary policy and financial stability into a new perspective. We show by a regression analysis for a panel of 11 advanced economies that an asset price bust has adverse effects on inflation. The effect of stock prices and corporate bond rates on inflation is significant, also if we control for developments in credit. This insight implies that in conducting and implementing quantitative easing, central banks should closely monitor and take into account asset bubbles.     

The impact of (un)conventional expansionary monetary policy on income inequality – lessons from Japan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on income inequality in Japan, using hitherto unexplored data from the Japan Household Panel Survey. Empirical evidence shows that expansionary monetary policy in Japan has contributed to diminishing the gender pay gap through an increase in working time of women relative to men, but also to increasing the education pay gap. These effects may have materialized via the aggregate demand channel and the labour productivity channel. In contrast, expansionary monetary policy has had no significant impact on the development of the age pay gap.     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.

We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated with central bank information conveyed with the announcement. To disentangle these two types of shocks, we impose sign restrictions on high frequency changes in interest rates and stock prices around announcements. We find that information shocks lead to persistent declines in the 10-year government bond yield, whereas the actual unconventional policy shock induces only small interest rate responses. We also find that expansionary output effects of unconventional monetary policy are to some extent counteracted by the information shock.     

货币政策对房价的影响：一个文献综述

通过文献资料法和比较分析法,评述有关货币政策对房价影响的研究方法与研究结论。研究成果：（1）房价与利率问题正日益受到各界关注;（2）房价与利率的关系,学者之间研究的结论不相同,有的学者认为利率对房价产生影响,有的学者认为利率对房价没有影响。研究启示：货币政策与房价的关系还需进一步研究,调控政策还需要不断地完善。     

Bank asset quality & monetary policy pass-through

The funding mix of European firms is weighted heavily towards bank credit, which underscores the importance of efficient pass-through of monetary policy actions to lending rates faced by firms. Euro area pass-through has shifted from being relatively homogenous to being fragmented and incomplete since the financial crisis. Distressed loan books are a crisis hangover with direct implications for profitability, hampering banks ability to supply credit and lower loan pricing in response to reductions in the policy rate. This paper presents a parsimonious model to decompose the cost of lending and highlight the role of asset quality in diminishing pass-through. Using bank-level data over the period 2008–2014, we empirically test the implications of the model. We show that a one percentage point increase in the impairment ratio lowering short run pass-through by 3%. We find that banks with severely impaired balance sheets do not adjust their loan pricing in response to changes in the policy rate at all. We derive a measure of the hidden bad loan problem, the NPL gap, which we define as the excess of non-performing loans over impaired loans. We show that it played a significant role in the fragmentation of euro area pass-through post-crisis.