外资、产业集聚与失业:新经济地理观

本文整合Harris-Todaro(1970)的城市失业现象与Krugman(1991)的新经济地理理论,建立新经济地理失业模型,探讨外资对于就业、城市失业量(率)与产业结构的影响;焦点置于要素替代差异、Todaro矛盾以及引进外资国家的福利分析。在两国架构中,当引进外资时,若要素替代弹性较低,资本引进国随着制造业扩张,其劳动雇佣量固然上升,但城市失业量亦随之上扬,出现Todaro矛盾现象。反之,在高要素替代情况下,引进外资的国家可能出现制造业就业和城市失业量同时下降的现象。     

20世纪发展中国家对外贸易及发展战略演进

发展经济学在不同阶段的发展思路和指导方针,决定了上个世纪发展中国家对外贸易发展战略的演进历程.从强调以进口替代为主的内向型发展战略到实行以出口替代为主的外向型发展战略,再到进一步关注区域贸易制度的创新,实行区域一体化的对外贸易发展战略.从总体上看,这一演进历程促进了发展中国家的对外贸易政策与优化本国产业结构、加快资本积累以及技术进步等目标的有效结合,从而为发展中国家自身经济目标的实现创造了有利条件.     

Labor‐eliminating technical change in a developing economy

Developing countries face significant challenges arising from automation. While the trade theory literature has tended to focus on factor‐neutral and factor‐augmenting technical change, automation processes suggest another form of technical change is relevant: factor‐eliminating. We explore the impact of a labor‐eliminating technical change in the context of a small developing economy. Unlike labor‐augmenting technical changes, labor‐eliminating technical changes are not necessarily cost‐reducing, and thus will not necessarily be adopted. A manufacturing wage held artificially higher than at the market‐clearing level, as in the Harris–Todaro framework, increases the incentive to automate. We establish the conditions under which firms will adopt a labor‐eliminating technology, and describe the resulting changes in equilibrium outcomes. Under plausible circumstances, automation can actually lower output, and may raise both the rate and level of unemployment. Immiserizing growth becomes a possibility, and can be tied directly to the underlying wage distortion.     

企业国际化发展中税收政策运用的国际比较

政府税收政策的制定和实施对企业的国际化发展起重要的促进作用,无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,税收政策都为企业的发展融入全球经济提供了必不可少的条件。随着中国经济形势的变化和发展,我国税收政策面临诸多挑战,和发达国家比较,不仅存在一些不合理的因素,甚至和有些发展中国家的某些税收政策相比,也有不足之处。本文试图分别从出口、海外引资及境外投资等3种企业国际化主要形式入手,对比典型发达国家及发展中国家与我国政府税收政策的差异、优劣,佐证企业的国际化发展绝对离不开政府税收政策的支持和指导,也离不开具体的税收制度提供的服务和帮助。     

Attitudes Towards Foreign Products and Welfare with Capital Mobility

We develop a model of trade with imperfect competition to study the welfare implications in developing and developed countries of the asymmetry in attitudes towards foreign products. In the developed country, consumers benefit from a better perception of foreign products while the rental rate of capital declines as long as the location of capital remains unchanged. However, when capital is mobile, the developing country hosts more and more capital at the expense of the developed country as perception of varieties produced in the developed country improves and the surplus of consumers in the developed country can decrease.     

Aid for Trade in Developing Countries: Complex Linkages for Real Effectiveness*

Abstract: Aid for trade is intended to support the integration of developing countries into the world trading system. Although this form of aid is being hailed as a promising new development tool, it lacks the strategic dimension that it needs if it is to be truly effective and fulfill donors' policy commitments. From a theoretical perspective, this paper presents the various aid‐for‐trade categories and analyzes the linkages between foreign direct investment, aid for trade and development. It also presents a typology of trade‐related needs for a panel of countries, to serve as a guide for donors in formulating their aid supply strategies. This typology reveals a number of disparities between countries and regions, as well as a low level of regional integration. Trade‐related needs are particularly significant in West Africa and East Africa, and substantial in the infrastructure sector. This paper also stresses the importance of refining the formulation of actual demand by beneficiaries, structuring the aid supply in accordance with donors' specific areas of expertise and enhancing coordination among the various stakeholders, both public and private. Lastly, further trade liberalization will not by itself suffice to generate strong growth and improve the geographical and sectoral distribution of foreign direct investment. Factors such as political stability, the business climate, physical infrastructure, institutions and human capital also play a fundamental role. Of particular importance is the coherence of trade, sectoral, macroeconomic and tax policies, not only within each country and region but also between industrialized and developing countries.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia: A Revisit

Abstract

The paper re-examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia, for the period 1970–2006. The cointegration results show that market size of both Malaysia and China have major, and a statistically significant impact, on FDI inflow to Malaysia. The results seem to support the argument that foreign investors tend to be more attracted to the country with a higher growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) because it indicates a larger potential demand for their products. In addition, the results also demonstrate that openness level of the country has a positive and statistically significant effect on FDI inflow, which supports the hypothesis that FDI can be attracted to a country with more liberalized economic reforms. Finally, the results show that literacy rate (human capital development) has significant positive effect on FDI inflow. The finding suggests the need for labor force expansion and education policy to raise the stock of human capital in the country. Using Granger causality test, we also find that there exist unidirectional causality from real GDP of both Malaysia and China, degree of openness and literacy rate to FDI inflow.     

Trade liberalization and welfare: Differentiated-good versus homogeneous-good markets

In this paper, we examine the effects of liberalization on industrial location and national welfare in a framework of new economic geography. Specifically, we explicitly incorporate arbitrary trade costs in both differentiated-good and homogeneous-good sectors into a two-country model, and clarify the effects of trade-barrier reduction in each sector. We show that their impacts on welfare levels in the two countries are different, and, if an industry is liberalized while the other is protected, a conflict between the countries might occur. Therefore, appropriate liberalization in both sectors is effective to alleviate such a conflict.     

Botox and bridges: South African exports of health and construction services

Until relatively recently, policy makers and academics directed little attention to trade in services. This has changed in recognition of the increasing role of services in economic growth, trade and investment. In World Trade Organisation (WTO) and other trade negotiations, discussions on services have become as important a. s., if not more important than, those on trade in goods. Despite the growing contribution of services to exports and economic development, trade in services remains highly regulated, especially in developing countries. This article outlines the main methodological and policy challenges facing developing countries, such as South Africa, in trying to understand the economic implications of service liberalisation. This is achieved largely by means of two case studies of the construction and health services sectors. While the findings are preliminary and the policy conclusions speculative, the article provides some examples of the key analytical difficulties that arise in services analysis. More importantly, it highlights the need for the government to develop integrated service sector strategies that recognise the contribution of trade to development policy and the impact of domestic regulations on trade.     

North-South interdependence: The case of the Federal Republic of Germany

This study examines economic relations between West Germany and the developing countries in the fields of trade, capital flows and migration of labour. Activity in most fields has expanded enormously since the mid-1960s; in addition the traffic has become markedly less one-way. For the purposes of analysis the developing countries are differentiated according to their economic capacity; prospects for co-operation with West Germany appear to differ markedly according to their stage of development. So German development policy, for its part, needs to employ a variety of different strategies. The more highly developed the partner country, the more the field can be left to private initiative, supported by a liberal foreign trade regime.     

中亚五国的贸易分布、对外投资与贸易政策

丝绸之路经济带建设充分说明了我国与中亚五国合作的重要意义。本文通过对中亚五国的贸易分布、对外投资与贸易政策的分析发现,中亚五国的主要贸易伙伴是中国和俄罗斯;其外国直接投资表现为净流入;其贸易政策的本质是以贸易优惠吸引外资流入。为此,我国今后在与中亚五国经贸合作中器重视其贸易政策的本质。     

维护中国外汇储备的价值

目前的世界金融危机，很可能使中国持有的许多债券甚至美国的政府债券连本金都无法收回。外汇储备的境外资金流入，降低了中国国内资金的回报率，控制了一个个中国产业。应采取三项措施：只要中国还没有出现对外贸易逆差，就严格禁止国外资金流入；立即对资本项目下对外资金往来实行集中计划控制，管制资金汇出；对中国外汇储备中外国债务人违约，不还本付息，中国政府可强行以债务人所属国在中国的所有金融权益抵偿中国外汇储备受到的损失。必要时可抛售其相应国家的债券。     

Customs Union and the Harris-Todaro Model with International Capital Mobility

Traditional customs union theory concludes that trade creation enhances welfare. Thus, Yu's (1982) conclusion that trade creation may decrease welfare in the presence of general unemployment is an important observation. Parai and Batra (1987) reestablish the traditional results in the Harris-Todaro model, where unemployment is sector-specific. We conclude that trade creation may decrease welfare in the Harris-Todaro model with international capital mobility when labor subsidies or capital taxes (subsidies) exist. Moreover, second-best labor subsidies or capital subsidies (taxes) recommended by some authors increase the chances of welfare decreasing trade creation.     

Foreign capital, unemployment and national welfare

We consider a situation where foreign capital is allowed to flow only into the export-processing zone of an economy characterized by unemployment and pursuing protectionary policy. We derive conditions under which growth induced by an increase in the flow of foreign capital will be immiserizing. The results are derived when foreign capital does not directly flow into the protected sector but alters the composition of outputs in the other traded sectors through inter-sectoral reallocation of other resources.     

Foreign ownership,technological capabilities and clothing exports in Sri Lanka

Drawing on recent developments in applied international trade and innovation and learning in developing countries, this paper examines the links between firm-level export performance, foreign ownership and the acquisition of technological capabilities in a sample of 205 clothing enterprises in Sri Lanka. Econometric analysis indicates that foreign ownership, firm size, human capital, technological capabilities and geographical location are all positively associated with export shares. Furthermore, higher levels of technological capability are associated with larger firm size, university-level manpower and in-house technological effort. Micro-level investigations are a complementary input to developing policies for promoting private sector competitiveness in outward-oriented developing countries.     

Capital Flows: Issues and Policies

This paper presents an analytical overview of recent contributions to the literature on the policy implications of capital flows in emerging and developing countries, focusing specifically on capital inflows as well as on the links between inflows and subsequent capital-flow reversals. The objective is to clarify the policy challenges that such inflows pose and to evaluate the policy alternatives available to the recipient countries to cope with those challenges. A large menu of possible policy responses to large capital inflows is considered, and experience with the use of such policies is reviewed. A policy “decision tree”—i.e., an algorithm for determining how to deploy policies in response to an exogenous inflow episode—is developed, and strategies to achieve resilience to both inflows and outflows in a world where exogenous events may frequently drive capital flows in both directions are discussed.     

Free trade zones,tariffs and the real exchange rate

This article examines the consequences of changes in final and intermediate good tariffs on structural adjustment, urban unemployment, and the real exchange rate in the presence of a free trade zone (FTZ) and foreign capital in the host country. The location of the FTZ and the disaggregation of the economy allows us to examine the consequences of a tariff change on regional incomes. It is shown that as a consequence of a tariff change the urban and rural incomes need not necessarily move in the same direction (hence the potential for rural and urban conflict in policy making). It is also shown that an increase in the tariff on an immediate good may result in both export promotion and an increase in welfare. Such expansion is a nonconventional result, since raising barriers to trade normally leads to a contradiction in the volume of the trade. The interconnection between the real exchange rate and intermediate good tariff is also explored in this article. It is shown that a policy of imposing tariffs on these goods may result in the appreciation of the real exchange rate.     

Changes in the living standards of the poor in Sri Lanka during a period of macroeconomic restructuring

Beginning in 1977, Sri Lanka moved away from its welfare-oriented economy characterized by extensive government intervention in controlling prices and expensive consumer subsidies toward a more market-oriented, outward-looking liberalized economy. Investment increased due largely to dramatic increases in the inflow of foreign capital combined with greater deficit financing. Unemployment declined and the rate of growth of GDP increased. The major increase in foreign assistance, coupled with deficit spending, enabled the government to undertake the ambitious infrastructure projects that stimulated demand. However, this policy change had deleterious consequences for the poor. Rapid inflation which resulted in a decline of real wages, coupled with dramatic decreases in the value of the food stamp scheme, brought about a decline in calorie consumption for lower expenditure groups. In addition, levels of malnutrition, as measured by acute wasting, were higher after the policy change.     

WTO框架下政府战略性补贴政策应用研究

本文研究表明：作为战略性出口贸易政策替代品的战略性研发补贴，在提升本国企业竞争力和提高国民福利的应用过程中，其政策效果一方面严重依赖于企业产品成本和产品间替代弹性等微观因素；另一方面也受各国政府反应策略的极大制约。     

Revenue enhancing tariff reform

Revenue Enhancing Tariff Reform. - Programmes of gradual trade policy reform have been included in most of the structural adjustment packages adopted by developing countries. So far the literature on piecemeal trade policy reform has concentrated on finding reform programmes that improve the welfare of a representative individual. Yet trade taxes are an important source of government revenue in many developing countries. This paper therefore examines tariff reform programmes that are both welfare improving and revenue enhancing. It first determines general conditions under which such a reform will exist and then considers specific reforms of both single tariffs and groups of tariffs. The standard welfare improving reform programmes — proportional and concertina reforms - are also discussed.