Differential effects of active labour market programs for the unemployed

The differential performance of six Swedish active labour market programs for the unemployed is investigated in terms of short- and long-term employment probability and un-employment-benefit dependency. Both relative to one another and compared to more intense job search, the central finding is that the more similar to a regular job, the more effective a program is for its participants. Employment subsidies perform best by far, followed by trainee replacement and, by a long stretch, labour market training. Relief work and two types of work practice schemes appear by contrast to be mainly used to re-qualify for unemployment benefits.     

Evaluating the dynamic employment effects of training programs in East Germany using conditional difference‐in‐differences

This study analyzes the employment effects of training in East Germany. We propose and apply an extension of the widely used conditional difference‐in‐differences estimator. Focusing on transition rates between nonemployment and employment, we take into account that employment is a state‐ and duration‐dependent process. Our results show that using transition rates is more informative than using unconditional employment rates as commonly done in the literature. Moreover, the results indicate that due to the labor market turbulence during the East German transformation process the focus on labor market dynamics is important. Training as a first participation in a program of Active Labor Market Policies shows zero to positive effects both on re‐employment probabilities and on probabilities of remaining employed with notable variation over the different start dates of the program. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is labour market training a curse for the unemployed? Evidence from a social experiment

In 1994 a social experiment was conducted in Denmark, where unemployed applicants for classroom training were randomised into treatment and control groups. The data are contaminated by the presence of no‐shows and crossovers, biasing the traditional experimental estimator. We interpret our experiment within an economic model of agents maximising outcomes facing different cost regimes and present results interpretable within this model. Surprisingly, we find that classroom training significantly increases individual unemployment rates and decreases employability. We discuss possible reasons for this finding and some related policy issues. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-run growth and welfare effects of public policies with distortionary taxation

In a one-sector growth model with infrastructure investment, we study the impact of fiscal policies on growth. The government collects taxes on labor income and profits. The government uses these revenues to purchase infrastructure investment, provide utility enhancing government services, and to provide transfer payments to the households. We show that the balanced growth rate is an increasing function of the percent of government revenues that goes to infrastructure. We find that the growth maximizing mix of taxes depends on the elasticity of substitution between inputs. In particular, with distortionary taxes, the growth maximizing tax rate on capital is higher the lower the elasticity of substitution between private physical capital and public capital. In addition, the growth maximizing size of the government is higher when the elasticity of substitution between public and private inputs is low. We also investigate welfare effects of other public expenditures as well. Depending on the elasticity of substitution in production, the welfare implications of different public policies can be substantial.     

Does comprehensive education work for the long-term unemployed?

In this paper we evaluate the effects of comprehensive adult education on wage earnings of long-term unemployed, an essentially unexplored issue. We use register data pertaining to a large sample of long-term unemployed in Sweden who enrolled in upper secondary comprehensive adult education. Estimates with propensity score matching indicate that more than one semester of study results in substantial increases in post program annual earnings for both males and females. According to our rough calculations, the social benefits of offering these individuals comprehensive education surpass the costs within five to seven years.     

Repercussions of reunification: patterns and trends in the socio-economic transformation of East Germany

This article presents empirical evidence about the first stage of the social and economic transformation process of East Germany after political reunification. It shows that, while political and institutional unification may have been achieved in 1990, the social and economic gaps have been widening since then. The authors identify groups which have become clear winners in this transition as well as the losers.     

Vocational training and new production concepts in Germany: some lessons for Britain

This article shows the pivotal role, played by the German system of vocational education and training, in the emergence of a new manufacturing policy. It offers a critique of recent changes in British training policy and practice and suggests further radical revisions in that area, in order to break out of the vicious circle of low training effort–low technology–low competitiveness.     

Benefit shifting: The case of sickness insurance for the unemployed

This study describes the probability of transition from unemployment with unemployment insurance (UI) to sickness insurance (SI), using a proportional hazard duration model and a large register-based dataset. The combination of limited UI duration and the fact that SI rights do not depend on remaining UI, creates an incentive to use SI to effectively extend UI. The separate effects of elapsed unemployment duration and of UI duration on hazard rates are identified through a reform of the UI system. The estimated hazard rate for transition from unemployment to SI increases sharply the last months before UI exhaustion. The spikes are larger for diagnosis for mental illness, and vary across individuals, but are present for all groups and all diagnoses.     

Employment effects of the Football World Cup 1974 in Germany

This study demonstrates that the Football World Cup 1974 in Germany was not able to generate any medium to long-term employment effects that were significantly different from zero. It is the first work to examine the employment effects of Football World Cup tournaments. It is also the first work to undertake a multivariate analysis of the employment effects of a major sporting event outside of the USA. In addition, this study does not arbitrarily determine the time period for the potential positive effects of a major sporting event but instead examines several alternative periods. Furthermore, the study tests for method sensitivity by analysing the data set in parallel with the approaches used in the studies of sporting events in the USA as well as in a fourth modifying estimation approach. In contrast to the conclusions reached in comparable studies, the results are not regarded as a clear refutation of the positive effects of major sporting events.     

Information shocks and the empirical evaluation of training programs during unemployment spells

We study the role of notifications in the evaluation of training programs for unemployed workers. Using a unique administrative data set containing the dates when information is exchanged between job seekers and caseworkers, we address three questions: Do information shocks, such as notification of future training, have an effect on unemployment duration? What is the joint effect of notification and training programs on unemployment? Can ignoring information shocks lead to a large bias in the estimation of the effect of training programs? We discuss these issues through the lens of a job search model and then conduct an empirical analysis following a “random effects” approach to deal with selectivity. We find that notification has a strong positive effect on the training probability but a negative one on the probability of leaving unemployment. This “attraction” effect highlights the importance of accounting for notifications in the evaluation of active labor market policies.     

The application of learning theories to improve cross-cultural training programs in MNCs

Cultural intelligence and intercultural competence are concepts that have been identified as antecedents for success in global management, and both depend on the acquisition of cultural knowledge. However, although a lack of cultural knowledge is cited in the international management literature as a frequent source of failure in expatriate assignments, there is scant research about how cultural knowledge is created and diffused within organizations. We cite evidence that cross-cultural training programs, which are widely utilized for cross-cultural knowledge transfer, tend to be ineffective in transferring cultural knowledge, and we examine in detail how cultural knowledge is acquired in MNCs and reveal the importance of its tacit component. Then, drawing upon five relevant learning models, we propose a framework for the effective transfer of cultural knowledge. Based on this theoretical underpinning, we offer four sets of effective cross-cultural training methods, as a function of the resources available, that the firm can apply to achieve more effective cross-cultural training for global managers.     

The search for success: do the unemployed find stable employment?

We use discrete time proportional hazards regressions to model the impact of previous unemployment incidence and duration on job tenure. We find that jobs that follow an unemployment spell have shorter mean duration than other jobs. Only one half of jobs that follow unemployment last for 12 months. Multivariate results suggest that an unemployment spell has a severe penalty on subsequent job tenure, and that it is unemployment incidence rather than duration which has the major impact.     

我国货币长期超中性实证研究

通过一个三元(货币供应量M2的增长率、名义利率、实际产出)结构向量自回归模型研究货币供应量增长率的一次永久性变动对实际产出、名义利率的长期影响，结果表明在中国货币超中性不成立，存在Mundell-Tobin效应，即货币供应量M2增长率的一次永久性变动使实际产出增加，实际利率下降。     

BETWEEN DEPRESSION AND HOPE: Affective Mediations of Urban Restructuring in Leipzig,East Germany

In this article, which is based on an empirical analysis of neoliberal restructuring in Leipzig, East Germany, I describe how the study of affective atmospheres adds to our understanding of urban restructuring, showing how collective moods affect (de)mobilization, contestation and the regulation of urban political economy to shed light on the relation between institutional, political and social processes. I demonstrate the relevance of affect for power relations, political interactions beyond rationality, and the rhythms and temporalities of urban restructuring, as exemplified by two prominent atmospheres that characterize Leipzig—post shrinkage depression (PSD) and anticipatory hope (AH).     

Bootstrap and Asymptotic Tests of Long-run Relationships in Cointegrated Systems

Hypothesis testing on cointegrating vectors based on the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are known to suffer from severe small sample size distortion. In this paper an alternative bootstrap procedure is proposed and evaluated through a Monte Carlo experiment, finding that the Type I errors are close to the nominal signficance levels but power might be not entirely adequate. It is then shown that a combined test based on the outcomes of both the asymptotic and the bootstrap tests will have both correct size and low Type II error, therefore improving the currently available procedures.     

Different roads: changes in industrial and employee relations in the Czech Republic and East Germany* since 1989

This article examines the differential impact of post Communist restructuring on industrial and employee relations in the Czech Republic and East Germany. It reviews the pre and post Communist systems of industrial relations and personnel management in the two countries and draws on original survey data to examine how this influences employee relations at organisation level.     

Modeling the number of unemployed in South Sumatra Province using the exponential smoothing methods

The number of open unemployment in South Sumatra Province from year to year is found to be unstable. It can cause serious developmental problems. One solution to this problem is to build an early warning system by predicting the number of open unemployment in the future so that the Regional Government can establish relative policies to anticipate the negative impacts it will have on the environment, economy, social and politics. Therefore, this study discusses the best model to predict the number of unemployed in South Sumatra Province. The methods used to identify the best model are Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Brown’s Exponential Smoothing (BES), and Holt’s Exponential Smoothing (HES). The Exponential Smoothing methods are compared to obtain forecasting results with a minimal error rate. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metrics are used to measure the performance of the forecasting model. Empirical results show that the SES model with the smoothing parameter value?=?0.7 is the best significant model in predicting the number of open unemployment in South Sumatra Province with a MAPE value of 6.24% and an RMSE value of 23.058. Thus, this SES model can be a reference for the Government to predict the number of open unemployment in South Sumatra Province so that the Regional Government can anticipate the negative impacts it can cause.

     

Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies

We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980–2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of the cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in the potential growth rate. In the short run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe-haven” flows.     

Neighborhood revitalization's effects on tenants and the benefit-cost analysis of government neighborhood programs

This paper analyzes the potential effects of neighborhood improvements on low-income tenants. The theoretical model shows that tenants with strong psychological ties to their current neighborhood may suffer significant losses due to rent increases caused by neighborhood improvement, even if no displacement occurs. These tenant effects bias property value measures of the benefits of government neighborhood programs. The model is tested using data from the Experimental Housing Allowance Program, and modest but important tenant effects are found.     

The effects of job-search motives and coping on psychological health and re-employment: a study of unemployed Hong Kong Chinese

We examine the influences of job-search motives and coping behaviours on psychological well-being and re-employment on 104 unemployed Hong Kong Chinese within a longitudinal context. Participants were tested on two different occasions separated by eight months. Results indicated that, at the first survey, use of coping strategies predicted higher psychological well-being while higher financial hardship was associated with decreased mental health. Results of ANOVA indicated that participants who scored high in employment commitment at the first survey were more likely to regain employment subsequently. Contrary to prior findings reported in studies with Western samples, psychological well-being was not affected by employment status at the follow-up survey. The psychological well-being of participants deteriorated from the first to the second survey. These findings point clearly to the significance of psychological factors in determining the response of Hong Kong Chinese to job loss. Implications of these data for future unemployment research among Chinese are discussed.