An Efficiency Analysis of Proposed State and Local Sales Tax Reforms

With few exceptions, state and local general sales and use taxes are levied primarily on tangible goods. Secular trends in production and consumption of goods and services, as well as legislated exemptions and exclusions, have eroded sales tax bases. A number of reforms designed to reduce base erosion have been proposed, including base broadening, conversion to a consumption tax, and wholesale replacement of sales taxes with income taxes. Each proposal has potential to shore up sales tax bases. From an economic perspective, the policy choice should turn on efficiency, equity, and simplicity. This paper reports on a computer analysis of efficiency effects. The results suggest that (i) base broadening can increase economic efficiency, (ii) converting to a consumption tax base dominates base broadening, (iii) replacing sales taxes with higher income taxes could produce large efficiency losses, (iv) base broadening could generate efficiency gains even if untaxed remote sales become a “sizable” fraction of total sales, and (v) even partial base broadening could produce sizable efficiency improvements.     

LONG-TERM CHANGES IN FOOD CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN*

The Japanese economy has shown a high rate of growth compared with European countries and America. Food consumption in Japan, however, has risen less rapidly than in these countries. The purpose of this paper is to explain the prewar rigidity in food consumption in Japan and to show how this has changed in the postwar period. The main factor in the rise of food consumption is usually the increase in per-capita income. Consumption of starchy foods generally decreases at certain levels of percapita income. In Japan, however, this level of income is lower than in other countries. While in the West the decline in demand for starchy foods has generally been due to the increased substitution of livestock products, in Japan this has been due mainly to low caloric consumption. Before the Second World War, starch intake in Japan remained fairly constant despite the rise in per-capita income. One reason for this rigidity is Japan's fondness for rice. In the postwar period, however, income elasticity for food and drink has doubled and livestock products have become more important, thus raising total caloric intake. This shift in food consumption, however, has caused problems for food production and agricultural incomes.     

Local Taxation in Indonesia: Opportunities for Reform

The Indonesian Government has recently completed a major reform of national taxation; an obvious follow-up is the reform of local taxation. Provinces and kabupaten/kotamadya levy a wide range of local taxes, but with the exception of provincial taxes on motor vehicles, these are mostly small, inelastic and costly to collect. In addition, many have undesirable equity and efficiency implications. This paper analyses the present range of local taxes in terms of a set of criteria, and discusses such issues as local fiscal performance, the effect of multiple taxes, and taxation versus charging. The paper concludes with a review of the options for reform aimed not only at simplifying and improving local taxation, but also at reducing local government's dependence on central government grants.     

PROBLEMS IN EXPANDING JAPAN'S IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES FROM DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: A SURVEY*

The Japanese economy is now the second largest market economy, with a large trade surplus. And yet, Japan's imports of manufactures have long been very low relative to its GNP, when compared with other industrial countries; its ratio of manufactured imports to GNP was in the range of 2.1–2.7% in the 1980-87 period, as compared with 8.5–10.3% for the industrial countries as a whole or 4.7-7.2% for the United States. The share of developing economies in total imports of manufactures in Japan is about the same as, if not higher than, those for most other industrial countries. If Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP were to rise in the future to approach closer to those of other industrial countries, Japan's imports of manufactures from developing economies could be two to three times what they are today, even if Japan's GNP does not increase at all and the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports does not increase. This paper is an attempt to probe the potential of the Japanese market for imports of manufactures from developing economies in terms of rising ratio of such imports to GNP. The paper explores the reasons why Japan's ratio is exceptionally low, on the basis of existing literature. (a) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports to GNP has remained exceptionally low compared with those for other industrial countries. (b) Japan's ratio of manufactured imports from developing economies to GNP has remained distinctly low despite the recent surge in such imports. (c) If a part of the reason for the low ratio for Japan was a market access problem as often alleged, the problem is not with formal import barriers such as tariffs and formal non-tariff barriers because these barriers in Japan are no higher than in other industrial countries. As for informal import barriers, evidence found indicates that: (i) Administrative guidance and flexibly managed competition policy, which in the past had considerable effects of limiting imports, appear to have declined-in importance, but they still have import-limiting effects in certain areas. (ii) Market access difficulties involving import procedures, product standards, testing and certification requirements, which were enormous in the past, may have also decreased in severity over the last decade, but problems in these areas persist. (iii) There are aspects of the Japanese distribution system and practice that seem to make foreign access to the Japanese market significantly more difficult than the access by Japanese exporters to the markets in other industrial countries. Distribution in Japan suffers from overregulation. (iv) Users of manufactured products in Japan are sensitive to quality, perhaps more so, on the average, than in other industrial countries. Does the recent upsurge in Japan's imports of manufactures suggest that the traditional import behavior of Japan is changing? Japan's manufactured imports measured in yen increased by 18 and 27 percent in 1987 and 1988, respectively, and those coming from developing economies increased even more rapidly. There is also some evidence that price and income elasticities of demand for manufactured imports may have increased recently. These are encouraging, but it remains to be seen whether the trends will continue far enough into the future to bring Japan's import behavior more into line with those of other industrial countries. If they do, implications for the market prospects of manufactured exports from developing economies could be far-reaching. Outstanding questions are: (i) How much of the recent increase in manufactured imports is attributable to the appreciation of the yen (price effect)? How much is attributable to the increase in income or industrial output (income effect)? How much is attributable to removal of formal and informal import barriers effected so far (structural change)? Has consumer taste changed? (ii) Why have Latin American countries not been successful in promoting their exports of manufactures to Japan, when Asian exporters have been so successful? (iii) Up until now, the share of developing economies in Japan's manufactured imports has not been particularly low compared with those for other industrial countries, but is this share likely to fall or rise in the future? (iv) What is the likely impact of recently increased direct investment (DFI) by Japanese manufacturers in developing economies on the imports of their products into Japan?     

促进收入公平分配的税收政策研究

税收作为国家宏观调控的重要手段之一,应当在调节收入分配差距方面发挥积极作用。本文从"双主体"税制结构出发,通过分析引起收入差距的税收原因,总结现有税种调节作用的效果和不足,从流转税、个人所得税、财产税及社会保障税等几方面提出增强税收公平收入功能的政策建议。     

日本对东盟OFDI的母国产业升级效应

基于2003—2020年日本对东盟十国的直接投资数据,并选取产业结构高级化IS和合理化IR两种指标来衡量日本国内产业结构演进状况,构建向量自回归模型,实证分析日本对东盟对外直接投资（OFDI）对国内产业升级的影响。长期Johansen协整检验和短期向量误差修正VECM模型的研究结果表明,日本对东盟的直接投资对国内产业结构合理化和高级化存在稳定的均衡关系。最后在借鉴日本对东盟直接投资近50年的投资经验的基础上对中国产业发展提出了相关产业合理化和高级化调整建议。     

A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers

Increasing integration of the Asian Tigers with the world economy through trade has exposed their income and trade to greater uncertainty and volatility. This paper models uncertainty in trade and income and re-examines the stability of the trade-growth nexus for Japan and the Asian Tigers in a dynamic framework. We find that in a volatile environment Japan's GDP growth is only import-led while Hong Kong's GDP growth is both export and import growth-led. On the other hand, incorporating uncertainty breaks the causal link between Korea's GDP growth and trade but it does not affect Taiwan's mutually causative relationship between GDP growth, with exports and imports. Lastly, the varied qualitative and quantitative impact of volatility in imports and exports on income growth among the Asian Tigers provides further thought for policy making.     

Strategies for fiscal consolidation in Japan

Japan's key fiscal challenge is to put public finances on a more sustainable footing. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies for Japan using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The results suggest that (i) an adjustment package that achieves primary balance through lower social transfers and government spending and a higher VAT is the most viable option and has a smaller negative impact on growth than other fiscal measures; (ii) achieving primary balance is not sufficient to stabilize the net debt ratio; (iii) prefunding future aging costs provides greater long-term benefits compared with less front-loaded strategies; (iv) tax reform involving shifting from corporate taxation to consumption taxation could mitigate the short-term output losses associated with fiscal consolidation; (v) the spillovers to the rest of the world from consolidation in Japan are positive in the medium term, but modest.     

The effect of exchange rate changes on Japanese consumption exports

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect Japanese exports. This is difficult because many of Japan's exports are used to produce goods for re-export. An appreciation in the importing country that decreases exports can decrease its imported inputs from Japan. To avoid this bias we examine consumption exports. Using a panel dataset of Japan's consumption exports to 17 countries over the 1988–2009 period, we find exchange rate elasticities of about one. These results indicate that the large swings in the value of the yen over the last decade have caused large swings in the volume of Japanese exports.     

Gerschenkron Redux? Analysing New Evidence on Joint‐Stock Enterprise in Pre‐War Shanghai

Alexander Gerschenkron (1904–78) famously postulated that the more backward an economy was at the outset of industrialisation, the more reliant it would be on state‐backed banks as a means of directing investment. Gerschenkron thereby implied that impersonal equity markets were likely to play a less significant role in countries aiming to catch up with the West. This article is aimed at examining Gerschenkron's thesis primarily through an analysis of shareholding in 1930s Shanghai. Drawing on newly discovered archival material as well as on recent studies, the paper clarifies the magnitude of joint‐stock enterprise and the ubiquity of stock‐exchange trade in a city that was by far China's most important economic hub. The pattern of joint‐stock enterprise in pre‐war China is compared with that of Japan, the first non‐Western society to become fully industrialised. The argument advanced is that Gerschenkron's thesis incorrectly played down the significance of impersonal equity markets to pre‐war Japan's successful industrialisation and to the limited nature of pre‐war China's industrialisation. Japan could sustain its industrialisation thrust in the early 20th century on a nation‐wide scale partly because of the growing vitality of its equity markets in Tokyo and Osaka. By contrast, China's pre‐war industrialisation was much less extensive because its equity markets were more limited.     

Japan's outward FDI potential

While Japan's outward FDI stock is historically high, it is not necessarily clear whether there is untapped growth potential, given the economic size of Japan and that of partner countries. This paper examines whether Japan's actual outward FDI stock is high or low relative to the FDI predicted by the gravity model using the outward FDI patterns of all OECD nations, which we call counterfactual FDI. The results indicate that the ratio of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI is the highest among the OECD countries as of the year 2015. The regional distribution of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI favors Southeast Asian nations, South Africa and the US. These results imply that Japan has no unrealized potential for outward FDI.     

中国个人收入分配改革探析

改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,城乡居民总体收入不断增加,个人收入水平大幅提升。然而,在取得辉煌成就的同时,我国个人收入分配存在的问题亦日渐凸显。其中,个人收入分配不公日趋严重、个人收入分配差距显著扩大、个人收入分配秩序比较混乱已成为阻碍构建公平与效率相统一的橄榄型个人收入分配新格局的三大难题。有鉴于此,我们须完善国家宏观调控体系,深化个人收入分配及相关领域的体制改革,有效规范个人收入分配秩序,尽快扭转个人收入差距不断扩大的趋势。     

Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China

The year 1996 was a turning point both in terms of Chinese labor market reform aria m China＇s economic growth pattern. Before 1996, labor market reform was mainly implemented through adjustment of people＇s occupation and income structure. Since 1996, employment restructuring has led to differentiation in terms of employment status. Labor market reform in the former stage resulted in slow growth in wages, whereas reform in the latter stage enhanced economic efficiency. Both stages have enabled the Chinese economy to apply its comparative advantage of low labor cost. Labor market reform has also increased income disparity and, therefore, new challenges are posed in sustaining economic growth. China needs to adjust its development strategies and introduce labor market reform that can improve income equality, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.     

Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation

We examined the accuracy of prediction of Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States from the viewpoint of forecast errors. Compared with the forecast error of each country at the around same time, the forecast error of Japan is about 2 times larger. In case of Japan, even immediately before release of quarterly GDP, the forecast error is over 1 %, which is the same level of forecast error as 94 days before in the United States and 135 days before in Canada.Evaluating the characteristics of forecast errors, it can be pointed out that Japan's forecasts are as efficient as those of other countries, and the addition of major economic statistics is unlikely to improve forecast errors. The reason for Japan's large forecast errors is the fluctuations in the GDP growth rate. These results provide evidence that volatile GDP may make the outlook worse.Large fluctuations in Japan's quarterly GDP have already been pointed out. It is necessary to examine the factors behind the large fluctuations in the rate of change in Japan's quarterly GDP.     

竞争性国有企业混合所有制改革对企业盈利能力的影响研究

基于2015—2021国企数据,采用双向固定效应模型,研究混改后企业股权结构对盈利的影响,为竞争性国企混改提供参考。结果显示,提高股权深入度与盈利正相关,适度股权集中度也积极影响盈利。异质性分析指出东部地区混改效果较佳。稳健性检验支持结论,总体而言,混改通过提高股权深入度和适度股权集中度,对企业盈利有积极影响。研究为混改提供理论和实证支持,同时为企业提升盈利能力提供有益借鉴。     

Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa–Samuelson effect?

Japan's real exchange rate appreciation during the post-WWII manufacturing-led growth period has been regarded as a classical example of the Balassa–Samuelson effect. We choose the most conspicuous sub-period—1956–1970—to confirm the effect. Japan was in a rapid growth period under the U.S. dollar peg (real GDP growth, 9.7% per annum). The nominal anchor was weak as Japan's inflation rate (GDP deflator-based, 5.4%) was markedly higher than the U.S. rate (2.6%) during the 15-year period. The decomposition of the annual 2.7% (geometric) Japan–U.S. inflation rate gap (real exchange rate appreciation of the Japanese yen) reveals that the Balassa–Samuelson effect accounted for 0.7%; most of the real exchange rate appreciation (1.7%) was attributed to greater price increases in Japan's tradables. Although Japan's tradable sector achieved high TFP growth, the joint effect of the tradable–nontradable TFP growth difference between the two economies was too small to generate a sizable Balassa–Samuelson effect. Japan's example may suggest that even in rapidly growing economies, the magnitude of the effect in long-run real exchange rate appreciation is generally modest.     

How is suicide different in Japan?

This study investigates suicide rates among OECD countries, with particular effort made to gain insight into how suicide in Japan is different from suicides in other OECD countries. Several findings emerged from fixed-effect panel regressions with country-specific time-trends. First, the impacts of socioeconomic variables vary across different gender–age groups. Second, in general, better economic conditions such as high levels of income and higher economic growth were found to reduce the suicide rate, while income inequality increases the suicide rate. Third, the suicide rate is more sensitive to economic factors captured by real GDP per capita, growth rate of real GDP per capita, and the Gini index than to social factors represented by divorce rate, birth rate, female labor force participation rate, and alcohol consumption. Fourth, female and elderly suicides are more difficult to be accounted for. Finally, in accordance with general beliefs, Japan's suicide problem is very different from those of other OECD countries. The impact of the socioeconomic variables on suicide is greater in Japan than in other OECD countries.     

我国税收政策影响初次分配的实证分析

近年来,在我国经济保持持续高速增长的同时,我国居民的收入分配不平等现象也在加剧。税收政策历来都是各国调节收入分配的重要政策杠杆。根据1994～2009年我国的基尼系数、税收收入占GDP比重的时间序列数据,所建立的多元线性回归模型表明,我国现行的以间接税为主体的税制结构,整体上拉大了不同阶层的收入差距。增值税、营业税等税种与基尼系数呈正相关,个人所得税、财产税等直接税也由于征收规模过小、征管存在漏洞等原因,没有充分发挥出直接税应有的收入调节作用。     

The impact of the rise and collapse of Japan's housing price bubble on households’ lifetime utility

This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan's bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints. We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan's housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35–45.     

Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effect of RMB-JPY volatility on Japan-China trade with a special emphasis on the impacts of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime implemented on July 21, 2005. We estimated two types of volatility measures (one based on the ARCH model and the other the usual standard deviation) utilizing daily data from Jan. 2002 through Dec. 2011 and examined both short-run and long-run effects of this volatility on exports of each country to the other with an ARDL approach. The results indicate that Japan's exports to China are not affected by the exchange rate volatility, but China's exports to Japan are negatively influenced during the reform period. Furthermore, the level of the exchange rate has no influence on Japanese exports, but it has a significant impact on Chinese exports. This asymmetric result may be due to differences in the depth of financial markets and in the maturity of exporters of the two countries.