Japanese Banks’ monitoring activities and the performance of borrower firms: 1981–1996

We construct an index measure that quantitatively describes the monitoring activities of Japanese banks. Using micro data on Japanese banks and borrower firms, we examine the effects of bank monitoring on the profitability of borrower firms. We find significant positive effects in the periods 1986–1991 and 1992–1996, although there is no significant effect in the period 1981–1985. We also examine how banks’ monitoring affects borrowers. The results show that the positive effects of banks’ monitoring on borrowers’ profitability are mostly caused by screening effects, not performance-improving effects.

Housing Loan Patterns Toward Minority Borrowers in Mississippi: Analysis of Some Micro Data Evidence of Redlining

We apply a cross-regional probit analysis to examine the existence or otherwise of the discriminatory practice of “redlining” in housing loan lending practices of banks in Mississippi. Data on loan denial rates across three Mississippi regions of Tri-County Metro-Jackson, Southern Mississippi Corridor, and the Northern district are studied to determine the pattern of bank lending activities regarding owner-occupied housing loan extensions to minority members of Mississippi's population. The purpose is to determine the degree to which the banks have or have not observed fair and equitable lending practices toward minority borrowers, relative to the members of the majority population. The results suggest that there is a consistently high denial rates against minorities. The results indicate strong evidence of redlining practices in housing loan decisions, which contribute to the growth of racial segregation in the state.

Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy

This paper describes a simple framework for monetary policy analysis in a small open economy where bank credit is the only source of external finance. At the heart of the model is the link between banks’ lending rates (which incorporate a premium over and above the marginal cost of borrowing) and firms’ net worth. In contrast to models in the Stiglitz-Weiss or Kiyotaki-Moore tradition, the supply of bank loans is perfectly elastic at the prevailing rate. The central bank sets the refinance rate and provides unlimited access to liquidity at that rate. The model is used to study the effects of changes in official interest rates, under both fixed and flexible exchange rates. Various extensions are also discussed, including income effects, the cost channel, the role of land as collateral, and dollarization.

Does financial integration make banks more vulnerable? Regulation,foreign owned banks,and the lender-of-last resort

We describe a simple model in which banks’ prudential efforts and public regulation can reduce the probability of bankruptcy. Focusing on the European example, we contrast the national case with an integrated banking market and find that banks will exert, and public regulators will demand, greater prudential effort to monitor their bank’s activities. Thus, financial integration may increase voluntary prudential behavior by banks, avoid a regulatory “race to the bottom,” and improve the soundness of the financial system. Along similar lines, we show that the absence of a dedicated lender of last resort within the euro area can reduce the probability of financial crisis. Despite these findings, the overall level of regulatory activity may remain suboptimal from a European perspective. We also discuss incentives for European banks to organize their foreign holdings in branches or subsidiaries.

Implications of Basel II for Different Bank Ownership Patterns in Europe

This paper explains that Basel II has different implications for stakeholder-owned (mutual) and stockholder banks in the European Union. Some strategic paths for stakeholder-owned banks are proposed as a response to the Stockholder Value Maximization goals Basel II implicitly advances. Even though empirical evidence indicates that capital strength and risk-taking exposures do not differ across bank ownership structures, SME lending and other characteristic specializations of stakeholder banks promise to generate high capital charges. However, improved corporate-governance practices and cooperative securitization and risk-management activities can reduce the compliance costs and risk-taking constraints mutual banks might experience from shifting to a Stakeholder Value Maximization Model. For all EU banks irrespective of their ownership structure, the analysis stresses that establishing an incentive-compatible cross-country safety-net scheme poses a critical challenge.

Overall trade specialization and economic development: countries diversify

This paper provides evidence for an aspect of trade often disregarded in international trade research: countries’ sectoral export diversification. The results of our semiparametric empirical analysis show that, on average, countries do not specialize; on the contrary, they diversify. Our results are robust for different statistical indices used to measure trade specialization, for the level of sectoral aggregation, and for the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated with per capita income. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) with country-specific fixed effects it can be shown that, controlling for countries’ heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income.

Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization Between Canada and the USA: A CGE Investigation

In this paper, we develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to shed quantitative light on the implications of a scenario of deeper economic integration between Canada and the United States, where the barriers for foreign direct investment are preferentially eliminated. Our model distinguishes between the activities of domestic and foreign-owned firms at the microeconomic level, both in terms of demand and production characteristics. Overall our findings suggest that further investment liberalization between the two countries will accelerate the shaping of Canada’s industrial structure, as manifested by recent trends.

Multinationals: Too Many or Too Few?— The Proximity–concentration Trade-off

The paper builds an analytically tractable model that illustrates the “proximity–concentration trade-off” involved in horizontal multinationals. For low trade costs, firms are single-plant firms, for intermediate costs, some are single-plant firms whereas others are multinationals, for large trade costs, firms are multinationals. Because of the modeling strategy, the model is suited for a welfare analysis of multinationals. It shows that too many firms choose to concentrate their production in only one location. Also, for some transport costs, a reduction in transport costs worsens welfare.

Zombie firms and economic stagnation in Japan

It is often claimed that one contributing factor to Japan's weak economic performance over the past decade is that Japanese banks have continued to provide financial support for highly inefficient, debt-ridden companies, commonly referred to as ‘zombie’ firms. Such poor banking practices in turn prevent more productive companies from gaining market share, strangling a potentially important source of productivity gains for the overall economy. To explore further the zombie-firm hypothesis, we use industry- and firm-level Japanese data and find evidence that productivity growth is low in industries reputed to have heavy concentrations of zombie firms. We also find that the reallocation of market share is going in the wrong direction in these industries, adding to already weak productivity performance. In addition, we find evidence that financial support from Japanese banks may have played a role in sustaining this perverse reallocation of market share.

A note on why more West than East German firms export

Germany is one of the most important exporters of manufacturing goods in the world, but by far not all manufacturing firms in Germany are exporters, and there is a remarkable gap between the share of exporters in all manufacturing firms between West Germany and East Germany. While in West Germany in 2004 about two in three manufacturing plants were exporters, fourteen years after re-unification this share was less than fifty percent in the former communist East Germany. Given that exports play a key role in shaping business cycles and growth in Germany, and the much higher unemployment in East compared to West Germany, promotion of exports by East German firms figure prominently on the policy agenda. However, the reasons for the large difference in the propensity to export between East and West German firms are not yet well understood, not least due to a lack of comprehensive micro data. Using unique new data and a recently introduced non-linear decomposition technique this paper shows that the huge difference in the propensity to export between West and East German plants can only partly be explained by differences in firm size, productivity, and technology intensity.

Connecting National Safety Nets: The Dialectics of the Basel II Contracting Process

Basel II consists of supervisory guidelines negotiated by representatives of central banks and national regulatory commissions that were members of the Basel committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). The BCBS is itself a regulatory response to globalization, which is connecting national safety nets in market-driven ways. A country’s financial safety net is a social contract established by short-lived agents for principals in long-lived economic sectors. Restraints placed on the authority of the BCBS members to contract for their principals by domestic politics explains: why Basel II authorizes individual countries to implement the agreement in markedly different ways; why US implementation of Basel II ran into so much doubt, controversy, and delay; and how the implementation debate set small and large banks and the Federal Reserve and other federal regulators against one another.

Introducing Instruments of Central Bank Accountability in a Monetary Union

With an increasing number of independent central banks, accountability of central banks is also getting more attention. This paper analyses the possibility of introducing instruments of central bank accountability in a monetary union. In our model, monetary policy is influenced by the governments of the member states according to the degree of independence granted to the central bank. Instruments of democratic accountability are introduced which generate different expected losses for a government. The amount of the expected loss will determine the approval of a government to the implementation of a particular mechanism. We show that the agreement between the governments will only be unanimous for the definition of the inflation target of the central bank.

Euro-Area Inflation: does the Balassa–Samuelson effect matter?

The paper argues that the Balassa–Samuelson effect is of little importance for the inflation target of the ECB. First, econometric tests of the Balassa–Samuelson effect suggest that the most robust link is found between relative sectoral deflators and relative unit labour costs; i.e. a link that accounts for an incomplete wage pass-through. For the (change in the) HICP — the target of the ECB — and its components additional factors seem to cause divergent international and sectoral developments. Second, countries with high productivity growth in industry may experience a real devaluation in the sector of tradable goods which counters the real appreciation resulting from a relative increase in service prices. It follows that the difference in productivity growth and thus the difference in the size of the relative price adjustment between countries does not have unambiguous consequences for the overall inflation rate, and as such can thus not justify an inflation target well above zero.

The choice of inflation targeting—an empirical investigation

A growing number of countries have anchored their monetary policy to an explicit numerical rate or range of inflation since such an inflation targeting framework was first adopted by New Zealand in 1989. This paper empirically investigates economic structure and institutional factors associated with a country’s choice of inflation targeting using a dataset of 66 countries for the period of 1980–2000. It is found that a sound fiscal position is significantly and positively associated with the choice of inflation targeting framework; the central bank is more likely to adopt inflation targeting with greater financial depth; institutional capacity including central bank autonomy and flexible exchange rate regime is important for the choice of inflation targeting.

The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece

This paper estimates the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for Greece. We calculate the effect directly, using sectoral national accounts data, which permits estimation of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the tradeables and nontradeables sectors. Our results suggest that it is difficult to produce one estimate of the BS effect. Any particular estimate is contingent on the definition of the tradeables sector and the assumptions made about labour shares. Moreover, there is also evidence that the effect has been declining through time as Greek standards of living have caught up on those in the rest of the world and as the non-tradeables sector within Greece catches up with the tradeables.

Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour

In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in 11 industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.

Do Campaign Contributions and Lobbying Expenditures by Firms Create “Political” Capital?

We examine the relation between a firm’s campaign contributions and lobbying expenditures and its Tobin’s q. We follow other studies that use q to measure the value of the firm’s intangible capital (e.g., the value of advertising, R&D, or environmental performance). Researchers have found a positive and significant relation between intangible assets and q. If political capital exists, it is an intangible asset. However, we find little relation between q and political contributions, suggesting that campaign contributions may not have long term effects on political markets. This is consistent with the view that contributions are done by firms as a response to a short term opportunity not as a way of building long-term political capital.

Funding Shocks and Optimal University Admissions and Financial Aid Policies

A positive shock to funding, such as a major donation, causes an optimizing university to raise its admissions standards and reduce tuition charges net of financial aid across all student categories. However, the shock’s effect on enrollment may not be uniform. Student categories given little weight in the university’s objective function may be treated as inferior goods; that is, positive shocks decrease their enrollments, while other student categories’ enrollments are increased. The paper’s findings shed light on the effect of federal direct-to-student aid on tuition levels, permitting a new perspective on William Bennett’s controversial hypothesis that aid accommodates tuition hikes.

Implications of Monetary Union for Catching-up Member States

We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilization in catching-up participating countries. We allow member states’ supply conditions to differ, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks of the type associated with the Balassa–Samuelson effect tend to hamper the stabilization properties of a currency union. In the face of aggregate supply disturbances, the stabilization costs of renouncing monetary autonomy diminish with a steeper supply curve (as induced by higher trade openness) and—barring idiosyncratic shocks—with a larger reference country size, more homogeneous supply slopes and a higher preference for price stability.

Live or Let Die? Alternative Routes to Industry Exit

Each year around 8% of Swedish manufacturing firms leave an industry. Of the exit routes available, the least likely is firm closure. Firms are more likely to merge, become acquired or switch to a new industry. We investigate the importance of a range of firm and industry characteristics for the exit decision of Swedish firms from 1980–1996. From our analysis two patterns are evident. First, firms that close down appear to be the most distinct compared to those that remain within the sector. Second the same characteristics can have quite different associations with different exit strategies.