Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria

This paper studies relationships between the local determinacy of a stationary equilibrium in the perfect foresight dynamics, and its local stability in dynamics arising from econometric learning procedures. Attention is focused on linear scalar economies where agents forecast only one period ahead, and with an arbitrary, but fixed, number of predetermined variables. In such a framework, it is well known that there are no clear links between the determinacy of the stationary state in the perfect foresight dynamics on the levels of the state variable, and its stability under learning. The paper emphasizes, however, that this is not the right perfect foresight dynamics to look at whenever agents try to learn the coefficients of the perfect foresight dynamics restricted to an eigenspace of lower dimension. Indeed the paper introduces a growth rate perfect foresight dynamics on these coefficients and proves equivalence between determinacy in that dynamics and stability under learning provided that a simple sign condition is satisfied. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E32, D83.     

Inflation and nominal tax system in an open economy

This paper provides an analysis of the implications of the interaction between inflation and a tax system which is not fully indexed within the context of an open economy. The model used is characterized by perfect foresight, full employment, imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign assets, and an endogenous stock of capital. Three distinct channels through which an increase in the inflation rate disturbs the initial equilibrium are analysed separately. The global effect is then discussed with respect to the position of the economy as debtor or creditor to the rest of the world. The financing of the public deficit is also briefly discussed.     

The design of a consumption tax under capital risk

This paper focuses on the design of a consumption tax in a world of capital risk. The certainty literature discusses two standard options, namely the cash flow method and the pre-payment method (i.e., the wage tax), and finds the two approaches to be equivalent. Models that consider capital risk (via asset choice) reach different conclusions. This discrepancy arises in part due to a different choice of the social discount rate. In light of the failure of the discount-rate argument to resolve the issue at hand, we explore the market certainty equivalence of risky government revenue. We let revenue risks stay in the private sector, and examine the market value of the feasible transfer (e.g., in the form of a public good) back to households. We reach three broad conclusions. First, we find that if the state returns to each household its own tax-revenue risks, equivalence will be re-established as in certainty models. Next, we show that if the state engages in intergenerational risk sharing (e.g., through a system of stochastic tax transfers), the wage tax cannot be construed to be a valid pre-payment alternative to the cash flow or a modified wage-tax-ation system. Efficient risk allocation across generations under a cash flow tax (or, one that includes future capital gains as well as wages in the tax base) leads to a Pareto improvement over the simple wage tax. Finally, a major policy implication follows; in order to be practicable, a consumption tax would have to be implemented via registered savings accounts much in the fashion of the Canadian registered retirement savings plans program rather than through the pre-payment route.     

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO₂ price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO₂ price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented.     

Ramsey Equilibrium in a Two-Sector Model with Heterogeneous Households

We prove an existence theorem for a stationary perfect foresight equilibrium under borrowing constraints in a two-sector model with infinitely lived heterogeneous agents. The most patient agent holds all the capital in this solution. We also show that if the capital goods sector is capital intensive and capital income is increasing in the aggregate capital stock, then the aggregate capital stock eventually is monotonic and converges to the steady state stock. If the consumption goods sector is more capital intensive and capital income is increasing in aggregate capital we prove convergence to the steady state under more restrictive conditions. Periodic equilibria are shown to exist under weaker hypotheses. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D90, E13.     

The Optimal Tax Treatment of Housing Capital in the Neoclassical Growth Model

Should housing capital be taxed like other forms of capital? We analyze this question within a version of the neoclassical growth model. We derive the optimal tax treatment of housing capital vis‐à‐vis business capital allowing for relatively general household preferences. In the first‐best, the tax treatment of business and housing capital should always be the same. In the second‐best, in contrast, the optimal tax treatment of housing capital depends on the elasticities of substitution between nonhousing consumption, housing, and leisure. This is because housing taxation may be used to alleviate the distorting effect of taxing labor. As a result, the optimal tax treatment of housing capital may be different from that of business capital. We complement these analytical results with a numerical analysis.     

Green tax reforms and habits

Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we explore the role of habit formation when analyzing green tax reforms under the double dividend hypothesis. We assume increases in energy taxes and adjust capital taxation in a revenue-neutral framework to evaluate the effects on welfare. Since the existence of an environmental dividend is uncontroversial, we mainly focus on the efficiency dividend. Our findings show that, when taxes on household energy consumption increase, habits and transitional dynamics alter household decisions, and change the efficiency dividend. However, when the tax increase is on energy used as an input, reform always induces a welfare cost in terms of efficiency. In this case, habits play a less important role.     

中国税制改革的税负代际间归宿——世代交叠生命周期税负归宿模型的理论与模拟

文章建立52期世代交叠生命周期税负归宿模型用以研究税制改革的税负在不同年龄人群之间的归宿。也即在考虑完全预期因素和消费者偏好的情况下,通过构建包括家庭、生产和政府三部门在内的方程组模型,来描绘出整个经济的均衡路径,并用此模型对我国税制改革对不同年龄人群福利的影响进行实证分析——计算我国增值税由生产型转为消费型和税制由流转税为主体税种转为以所得税为主体税种的两项最重要的税制改革对不同年龄人群福利的影响。     

Endogenous leadership and sustainability of enhanced cooperation in a repeated interactions model of tax competition: Endogenous leadership in tax competition

In this study, the endogenous timing of moves is analyzed in an infinitely repeated game setting of capital tax competition between a subgroup (a tax union) of countries agreeing on partial tax harmonization and outside countries. It is shown that in a subgame perfect equilibrium of the infinitely repeated tax competition game, they simultaneously set capital taxes in every stage game when a tax union comprises similar countries with respect to productivity, whereas they may set capital taxes sequentially in every stage game when a tax union comprises dissimilar countries. This finding is significantly different from Ogawa (2013), although we also assume that capital is owned by the country's residents, as in Ogawa's model. This is because a disadvantaged member country of the tax union would suffer from larger losses when a tax union comprising dissimilar countries, and thus the tax union will choose the strategy of moving Late for the sake of sustaining tax harmonization to avoid such losses.     

Capital and Consumption Tax Reforms in a Small Open Economy

The effects of a reform in capital and consumption taxes on private welfare and government tax revenue are examined for a small open, capital‐importing economy. A trade‐off between private welfare and tax revenue is encountered in maximizing social welfare. Nonetheless, lowering capital taxes and raising consumption taxes can increase both private welfare and tax revenue if the initial tax rates are not optimal. In addition, a tax reform by this fashion is a likely response to a rise in the foreign rate of return on capital.     

Capital accumulation,income distribution and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model

A study is conducted in attempts to increase the understanding of the links between macroeconomic effects and causes of population growth in formulating policy. An overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed aggregating household decisions about fertility, savings, and investment in the human capital of children with the objective of studying intertemporal relationships among population growth, income distribution, inter-generation social mobility, skill composition of the labor force, and household income. As a result of endogenous fertility, the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation. Income tax transfer, child taxation, and social security taxation policies are also examined in the paper. A structural explanation is given for the inverse household income-child quantity and negative child quality-quantity relationships seen in developing countries. In a Cobb-Douglas economy, these relationships hold in the short-run, potentially working over the long-run in other economies. Overall, the model shows that group interests may hinder emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives. Where developing countries are concerned, these results have strong implications for population policy. A policy mix of building good quality schools, or subsidizing rural education, introducing a formal social security program, and providing high-yield, risk-free investments, banking, and insurance services to the poor is recommended.     

Tax reforms under market distortions in product and labour markets

Using a two-agent model comprised of capitalists and workers, this paper examines the importance of imperfect competition in product and labour markets in determining the welfare effects of tax reform. The reform considered consists of eliminating the capital tax alongside a concurrent rise in the labour tax. In contrast to the perfectly competitive model, models with product or labour market failures each result in welfare losses for the workers in the long-run. In a realistic calibration to the UK economy, combining these imperfections implies that this tax reform will be Pareto improving in the long-run. However, these welfare gains over longer time horizons come at the cost of short-run losses, which, consistent with previous research, result in welfare losses for workers post-reform.     

On the emergence of competitive equilibrium growth cycles

A basic discrete-time heterogeneous capital goods competitive environment is considered, its potential for displaying steady growth solutions analyzed and the properties of the latter characterized. A first composite good may be used for consumption or investment on a one-to-one basis, while a second good is only used for accumulation, solely capital inputs being part of the production process. This framework is first considered from the allocative standpoint through the derivation of the frontier of the production possibility set. Having defined the perfect foresight competitive equilibrium that also describes a Pareto optimum over time, attention is then given to the potential for unbounded steady growth solutions. Under interiority, summability, and expansivity restrictions, there is a unique optimal steady growth rate. For unitary depreciation rates of both capital goods, locally there exists a unique convergent sequence to this steady growth solution that exhibits a saddlepoint structure. However, as soon as one of the depreciation rates of the capital goods is non-unitary and the profit share accruing to the first capital stock is greater in the second pure accumulation industry than in the first composite good industry, the steady growth solution shows a loss of stability, and competitive equilibrium growth cycles emerge through the occurrence of a flip bifurcation in its neighborhood. This is the first optimal cycles result based upon a production set that does not explicitly incorporate any exogenously determined primary labor input in its definition.     

Optimal capital accumulation and durable goods production

Summary We have examined the optimal production of a consumer durable with the aid of a capital stock subject to deterioration. We assumed the durable was owned by the producer and its services rented; this is equivalent to assuming sale with perfect foresight and used good markets. If the firm has no more than modest initial endowments of productive capital and durable good, the deterioration of capital induces a hump-like profile of the stock of the durable product, with the top of the hump above the eventual steady state level. The rental price of the consumer durable, therefore, falls from its initial level to a low from which it ascends to its steady state value. This implication might be amenable to empirical testing.Among the possible extensions of this work might be an analysis of the relationship between market structure and the choice of durability along the lines of [7] with allowance for deterioration of the capital stock. Recent generalizations of the traditional model of capital accumulation to take into account obsolescence and maintenance, as in [19], [11] and [13], might also be applied to this model. Lastly, policy questions regarding the consequences of an investment credit tax addressed in [4] and [16] might also be investigated in the context of the model presented in this paper.     

促进我国区域间产业资本转移的税收政策研究

现阶段我国区：域经济发展仍不协调．东部地区的产业资本向中西部转移尚存制度上的障碍。文章基于东部产业资本向中西部转移的动机分析,对我国现行税收政策在促进区域间产业资本转移的效果进行评价,为有效促进我国区域间产业资本转移。提出尽快在中西部全面实施资源税改革、落实增值税扩围和增加对中西部产业的流转税优惠以及推进消费税、个人所得税和企业所得税改革等政策建议。     

COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE TAX AND TRANSFER TREATMENT OF CHILDREN USING ADULT EQUIVALENCE SCALES

This paper estimates adult equivalence scales in the context of a nonlinear demand system using cross-section individual household data. It then evaluates the treatment of children under the tax allowance and child benefit systems on the basis of the estimated equivalence scales. The results suggest that a child benefit system allowing for economies of scale in the family is consistent with the cost of children implied by the notion of adult equivalence scale.     

Implementing partial tax harmonization in an asymmetric tax competition game with repeated interaction

This paper investigates the conditions under which partial harmonization for capital taxation is sustained in a repeated interactions model of tax competition when there are three countries with heterogenous capital endowments. We show that regardless of the structure of the coalition (i.e., full or partial tax coordination), whether partial tax harmonization is sustainable or not crucially depends on the extent to which the capital endowment of the medium‐sized country is similar to that of the large or small country. The most noteworthy finding is that the closer the capital endowment of the median country is to the average one, the less likely the tax harmonization including the median country is to prevail and the more likely the partial tax harmonization excluding the median country is to prevail. We also show that partial tax harmonization makes the member countries of the tax union better off and non‐member countries worse off, which stands in sharpe contrast with previous studies, such as Konrad and Schjelderup (1999) and Bucovetsky (2009).     

Redistributive taxation and the household: the case of individual filings

In this paper I look at the tax treatment of households under individual filings and characterise the efficiency properties of an income tax schedule that redistributes from rich to poor households. Because tax liabilities are determined on individual incomes but the decision to earn those incomes is made at the household level, tax liable members of the same household can side trade leisure for net income with one another, and such side trade enables them to carry out tax arbitrage. I analyse the problem for a two-class economy both with and without perfect assortative mating. The main conclusion is that the prevention of tax arbitrage imposes structure on the graduation of the tax schedule.     

强化个人所得税调节功能的政策建议

个人所得税是经济发展与国家调节个人收入相结合的产物,是随着个人收入差距的逐步拉大而产生的,我国目前个人所得税的收入结构与当前我国城镇居民的所得主要来源于工薪所得这一现状是相适应的。在个人所得税发挥了积极作用的同时,也无可否认,个人所得税的流失还很严重,其调节收入分配的作用还未得到充分发挥,对不同收入项目的调节作用发挥也不平衡,客观上说明个人所税税制有必要进一步加以改革和完善。     

Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth

We study capital accumulation and innovation as determinants of long-run growth by adding capital to our earlier model of creative destruction. No special functional forms are imposed on the aggregate production function. The equations describing perfect foresight equilibrium are identical to those of the augmented Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, except that the rate of technological change is a function of the stock of capital per effective worker. Contrary to previous models, a subsidy to capital accumulation will raise the long-run growth rate. The key assumption is that capital is used in R and D. Some evidence is presented on the capital intensity of R and D.