Refinery mix in the U.S., Canada,and the E.E.C.

This paper examines the response of gasoline's share of a barrel of crude oil to changes in relative petroleum product prices. An inter-country comparison of the U.S., Canada, and the E.E.C. allows investigation of different parts of the production possibility frontier. In the U.S. and Canada, with relatively large amounts of cracking capacity, there is price responsiveness of the product mix to changes in relative product prices. In the U.S., both residual and distillates are substitutes in production for gasoline, but for Canada, only distillate is a substitute. Part of this difference is attributed to the U.S. oil quota. For the E.E.C. with relatively small amounts of cracking capacity there was no discernible effect of product prices on product mix.     

C.E.S. production functions in the light of the Cambridge critique

The Cambridge debate of the 1960s showed conclusively that the aggregation of capital, so as to obtain a surrogate production function according to Samuelson, is not possible in general, with critical implications also for other variants of neoclassical theory. The framework for the demonstration is that of linear activity analysis.There is an individual wage curve in function of the rate of profit for each technique. If these individual wage curves were straight lines, their envelope would define a wage curve resulting from all techniques, from which a surrogate production function could be derived, but all wage curves are straight only, if there is only one industry. And if wage curves are not straight, phenomena such as reswitching show that essential neoclassical hypotheses need not hold. A recent empirical investigation by Han and Schefold has found one empirical example for reswitching and several for reverse capital deepening.A rigorous derivation of surrogate production functions thus is ruled out also on empirical grounds, but the paradoxes seem not to be as frequent as the critics once thought, so that the question arises whether approximate surrogate production functions could be derived, with individual wage curves which would be sufficiently linear to construct approximate surrogate production functions, indicating a relationship between the intensity of capital and output per head which would be sufficiently precise to work with.The paper is part of a wider investigation, in which conditions for the existence of quasi-linear wage curves and the possibility of the construction of approximate surrogate production functions are given. The emphasis here is on the special hypotheses needed to obtain C.E.S. production functions.     

Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

ABSTRACT

Three major concerns drove the U.S. into initiating the trade war, and they are (a) the concern that China’s chronically large trade surplus was depressing job creation in the U.S. (b) the concern that China was using illegal and unfair methods to acquire U.S. technology at an effectively discounted price; and (c) the concern that China seeks to weaken U.S. national security and its international standing. On the dispute over China’s exchange rate and trade imbalance, the first conclusion is that it was marked by analytical confusion over the meaning of the term ‘equilibrium exchange rate’. The second conclusion is that China’s trade imbalance reflects the economic conditions in both China and U.S., and that the efficient and fair solution of the problem requires policy changes in both countries. On the industrial policy dispute, the first conclusion is that the issue of forced technology transfer is largely a dispute about China using its market power to benefit itself at the expense of its trade partners. The second conclusion is that China’s use of market power can last only until the other large countries could unite and retaliate as a group. The inevitability of retaliation means that China should replace the joint-venture (JV) mechanism for technological diffusion with other ways to strengthen its technological capability. On the U.S. concern about whether China trade weakens its national security, the first conclusion is that the notion of national security that is commonly adopted in the U.S. trade policy debate is ignorant about the primary determinants of U.S. capability in innovation. By focusing instead mainly on how to hold down China technologically, the long-run outcome will be a technologically weaker U.S. and hence, a more vulnerable U.S. The second conclusion is that the U.S. must identify a clear, short list of critical technologies and critical infrastructure for the recently reformed Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to cover, and update this list constantly. Otherwise, the broad and changing nature of notions about national security would allow the bureaucratically driven phenomenon of mission-creep to steadily expand the coverage of the CFIUS process, thereby steadily rendering CFIUS to be operationally capricious. Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978 (e.g. many parts of China now look like Singapore and China is Africa’s biggest donor), there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite China’s status as a developing economy under WTO rules. Our principal policy suggestion to President Trump is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game. While fair economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short run, it generally creates a win-win outcome in the long run.     

Determinants of U.S. direct investment in the E.E.C.: Revisited

This paper expands upon an earlier work in this Review concerning the specification of a model to identify the determinants of U.S. direct foreign investment (DFI) in the E.E.C. Compared to earlier studies, a longer data series is used, an improved tariff discrimination proxy is employed, and ‘predicted sales’ are estimated and used as the output variable in the empirical work. A variable to capture the effect of the U.S. capital control programs is also included. The findings reaffirm the importance of market size, especially in the plant and equipment equations, as being an important determinant of DFI. Strong support was also found for the growth hypothesis. Consistent statistical support was found for the tariff discrimination hypothesis. In addition, the findings imply that a variable to capture the effects of fluctuating exchange rates should be included in future studies.     

U.S. farm dynamics and the distribution of U.S. agricultural subsidies

The persistent instability of the agricultural sector is the fundamental premise of most agricultural policy. Yet no research has ever quantified the aggregate dynamics of individual farms in the US. This article is the first to combine the US Census of Agriculture with the Agricultural Resource Management Survey to observe the dynamics of nearly 1.5 million farms. The data reveal substantial variation in farm size expansion and contraction. Most of this variation is unobservable in the sector totals reported by the US Department of Agriculture each year. The distribution of agricultural subsidies suggests that subsidies become more important as farms get smaller and may play a role in slowing farm size contraction.     

Determinants of U.S. direct investment in the E.E.C.: Further evidence

This study attempts to identify the determinants of U.S. direct foreign investment in the E.E.C. Previous studies are examined and an alternative specification is presented. The results indicate that the size of the market, growth of the market, height of trade barriers, and lagged net plant and equipment expenditures are important. Even so, the author feels that the data is too weak to permit strong policy statements from being made, as has been done in some of the previous papers.     

The Effectiveness of the U.K. Travel Allowance

This paper discusses a method for analyzing the pricing and production behaviour of a mature oligopoly, characterized by stable market shares and well established patterns of price leadership. The oligopoly utilized as an example is the US primary producers of copper. The paper develops three pricing/production strategies which are felt to be most relevant to the US primary producers. While one of these strategies (collusive monopolistic pricing) is more desirable to the oligopoly, the ability of the oligopoly to impose any of the strategies depends upon market conditions and government stockpile intervention. A generalized logit probability model is developed and estimated to indicate the effects of market conditions and government action upon the ability of the oligopoly to impose its desired pricing/production strategies.     

Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the U.S.

This paper examines the effect of changes in the level and volatility of exchange rates on the demand for money. It hypothesizes that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative influence on money demand separate from the effect of the level of exchange rates. Using U.S. data covering the period from 1974.1 to 1990.4, it is found that, regardless of whether the adjustment process is modeled as an error-correction or a partial-adjustment model, exchange rate volatility is negatively related to the demand for real M2 balances. This relationship is found to be more pronounced when exchange rates are expressed in real terms. The results imply that money demand responds to both the volatility of domestic prices relative to foreign prices and to the volatility of nominal exchange rates. Little evidence is found in support of the hypothesis that the level of exchange rates exerts a significant influence on money demand.     

Productivity growth and the U.S. saving rate

Over the last half century, the saving rate in the United States exhibited significant variations. In this paper, I examine whether a general equilibrium model that allows for shifts in the growth rate of total factor productivity can account for these variations. The model generates significant medium-run variations in the U.S. saving rate, and establishes a link between episodes of productivity growth slowdowns or accelerations and the saving rate—two concepts that have often been treated in isolation. While a productivity-growth based explanation is able to account for broader trends in the rising consumption–income ratio from about 1980 to 2000, there are other episodes during which the model is less successful.     

Cost of Protection of the U. S. Wool Sector

The present system of protection of the U. S. wool sector affords an opportunity for examining the interdependence of intermediate and final goods sectors when both are protected. It also illustrates the cumulative nature of protective devices.
In this study an intermediate good model is employed to investigate the cost to the United States of maintaining the present method of protection for raw wool and wool products¹. The concept of a net tariff is utilized to represent the actual protection afforded to a final good when its inputs are also protected. This net tariff is related to the effective protective rate which has been frequently mentioned in the literature. It is, however, more useful when the question of cost allocation between sectors is under consideration. The intermediate good model also permits an estimation of the gain from the removal of protection in either the raw wool or wool products sector as well as an estimation of the gain from adopting alternative methods of protection such as deficiency payments.     

Why the U.S. economy is not depression-proof

Summary The U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient over the years. In the turbulent 1970s, it was able to rebound from the energy crises, food shortages, and double-digit inflation. In the disinflationary 1980s, it has had to overcome major credit crunches, volatile financial markets, and banking crises. In short, Armageddon has been postponed.Nevertheless, while the United States and other western countries may be depression-resistant, they are not depression-proof. They are highly susceptible to deep recessions from time to time. Governments have been remarkably successful in averting disaster over the past fifty years. One wonders if Armageddon can be postponed indefinitely. So far, the government forces of inflation have effectively beaten back the free-market forces of deflation. But while the government has won many battles, the war is not over. Macroeconomic imbalance is still very much in evidence; and it is, in fact, growing as monetary and fiscal policies become more and more precarious. As long as the financial-banking system is built on a volatile, destabilizing inflationary policy coupled with a fragile fractional reserve system, the possibility of financial chaos and a subsequent economic cataclysm should not be discounted.I would like to thank Kenna Taylor of Rollins College, Larry Wimmer of Brigham Young University, Murray Rothbard of the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, Walter Block of the Fraser Institute, and Harry Browne for their comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to Warren Heller of Veribanc, Inc., for providing bank data.     

The value of ecosystem services provided by the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System in the contiguous U.S.

Studies that demonstrate the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by public conservation lands can contribute to a more accurate appraisal of the benefit of these lands. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic value, in real (2004) dollars, of the ecosystem services provided by the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System (Refuge System) in the contiguous U.S. In order to estimate this value, we determined the ecosystems present on the Refuge System in the contiguous 48 states, the proportion in which they are represented, and the dollar value of services provided by each. We used land cover classes as an approximation of ecosystems present in the Refuge System. In a geographic information system (GIS), we combined land cover geospatial data with a map of the Refuge System boundaries to calculate the number of acres for each refuge and land cover class within the Refuge System. We transferred values for the following ecosystem services: climate and atmospheric gas regulation; disturbance prevention; freshwater regulation and supply; waste assimilation and nutrient regulation; and habitat provision. We conducted a central tendency value transfer by transferring averaged values taken from primarily original site studies to the Refuge System based on the ecoregion in which each study site and refuge was located and the ecoregion's relative net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is a parameter used to quantify the net carbon absorption rate by living plants, and has been shown to be correlated with spatially fungible ecosystem services. The methodologies used in the site studies included direct market valuation, indirect market valuation and contingent valuation. We estimated the total value of ecosystem services provided by the Refuge System in the contiguous U.S. to be approximately $26.9 billion/year. This estimate is a first cut attempt to demonstrate that the value of the Refuge System likely exceeds the value derived purely from recreational activities. Due to limitations of current understanding, methods and data, there is a potentially large margin of error associated with the estimate.     

The value of ecosystem services provided by the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System in the contiguous U.S.

Studies that demonstrate the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by public conservation lands can contribute to a more accurate appraisal of the benefit of these lands. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic value, in real (2004) dollars, of the ecosystem services provided by the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System (Refuge System) in the contiguous U.S. In order to estimate this value, we determined the ecosystems present on the Refuge System in the contiguous 48 states, the proportion in which they are represented, and the dollar value of services provided by each. We used land cover classes as an approximation of ecosystems present in the Refuge System. In a geographic information system (GIS), we combined land cover geospatial data with a map of the Refuge System boundaries to calculate the number of acres for each refuge and land cover class within the Refuge System. We transferred values for the following ecosystem services: climate and atmospheric gas regulation; disturbance prevention; freshwater regulation and supply; waste assimilation and nutrient regulation; and habitat provision. We conducted a central tendency value transfer by transferring averaged values taken from primarily original site studies to the Refuge System based on the ecoregion in which each study site and refuge was located and the ecoregion's relative net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is a parameter used to quantify the net carbon absorption rate by living plants, and has been shown to be correlated with spatially fungible ecosystem services. The methodologies used in the site studies included direct market valuation, indirect market valuation and contingent valuation. We estimated the total value of ecosystem services provided by the Refuge System in the contiguous U.S. to be approximately $26.9 billion/year. This estimate is a first cut attempt to demonstrate that the value of the Refuge System likely exceeds the value derived purely from recreational activities. Due to limitations of current understanding, methods and data, there is a potentially large margin of error associated with the estimate.     

美国证券市场兴衰的非理性因素剖析

美国股市泡沫的膨胀和崩溃，无法完全用传统的金融理论和各种定价模型来说明，一些非理性因素对股市泡沫的形成和膨胀也有着重要的甚至决定的作用。从上世纪美国发生的四次股灾说明，非理性预期是股市泡沫形成的基础，其推动机制是庞氏骗局效应。此外，一些社会心理和行为，突发事件和随机因素，都对股市的兴衰起着推波助澜的作用。     

J. K. Galbraith: Liberal Politics and the Economics of the Modern Business Firm

This appreciation of J. K. Galbraith (JKG) is one of an occasional series of Reputations that New Political Economy carries reviewing the work and life of significant political economists. It is appropriate to include JKG is this series, not only because of his obvious academic stature but also in recognition of the fact that ten years ago he opened the Political Economy Research Centre at the University of Sheffield, UK, from which NPE is managed. To some extent the discussion presented here is based on published work, but in addition an important source involves an interview with JKG conducted on 27 March 2003 in Cambridge, Massachusetts, by Michael Dietrich and Andrew Gamble. Much of the material covered in the interview is developed in more detail in a forthcoming book by JKG to be published in the near future. All quotations and information sources that are not obviously referenced in the text are based on this interview. The discussion is organised as follows. Following a brief introduction, the main section considers Galbraith as a political economist. The focus here is to trace the structure and evolution of JKG's intellectual project. This leads on to a consideration of Galbraith as a political animal and commentator on world affairs. One objective here is to trace the linkages between the intellectual and political projects. Finally, a conclusion is presented under the rubric of Galbraith the man.     

Investigating the distribution of personal income obtained from the recent U.S. data

This study considered the conservation of money in a closed economic system. In such system, the probability distribution of money is exponential, and similar to the Boltzmann-Gibbs function in a closed energy system. The theoretical concept of econophysics is compared here with empirical data. The current work analyzes the recent data with regard to personal income distribution obtained from United States Census Bureau for the years 2006, 2007 and 2008. The data was best fitted with the exponential function, which supports the theoretical assumption for the income of the majority of the population. This study also investigates this distribution for a population with high personal income.     

On the upsurge of U.S. food prices revisited

The objective of this study is to empirically examine the effects of changes in exchange rate, commodity price and energy price on five U.S. food prices — cereal/bakery, meats, dairy, fruits/vegetables and beverages. The Johansen cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction (VEC) model are applied to monthly data for the 2001–2010 period. Results show the existence of stable long-run relationships among the selected variables. We also find that energy and commodity prices have influenced U.S. food prices mainly through changes in prices of cereal/bakery, meats and dairy. Finally, exchange rate is found to have been a significant factor influencing U.S. food prices. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 is one of main driving forces for the recent food price inflation, which has affected negatively consumers, especially low income households, in the United States.     

The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar

In this paper the validity of the monetary exchange rate model in the long run for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate is examined. The primary test employed is the Johansen (1991) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration technique. The effects of dummy variables and lag specification on the statistical inference are considered, and Monte Carlo simulations based on the estimated parameters are employed. Despite the use of the longest data set yet for the Canadian case, no evidence is found in favour of the monetary exchange rate model using the Johansen procedures. This result is confirmed by several other cointegration procedures. JEL Classification: F31; F41
La faillite du modèle monétaire du taux de change pour les dollars canadien et américain. Ce mémoire examine le modèle monétaire du taux de change pour savoir s'il est validé par l'expérience canado-américaine en longue période. Le test principal utilisé est la technique de cointégration de Johansen (1991) et Johansen et Juselius (1990). Les effets des variables fictives et de la spécification de la structure de délais sur l'inférence statistique sont considérés, et on utilise des simulations de Monte Carlo fondées sur les paramètres calibrés. Malgré le fait qu'on fait appel à la plus longue série chronologique utilisée dans ce type d'analyse à ce jour, on ne trouve aucun support du modèle monétaire du taux de change en utilisant les procédures de Johansen. Ce résultat est confirmé par l'utilisation de plusieurs autres procédures de cointégration.     

从伊拉克战争看美军网络中心战

本文首先介绍了网络中心战的基本概念，说明网络中心战是信息化战争的新阶段。进一步从伊拉克战争，说明取得太空优势是实现网络中心战的基础。接着本文介绍了在这次战争中，美军网络中心战的巨大威力和不足之处。     

The sources of the U.S. money demand instability

The structural stability of money demand relations has been the issue of a substantial number of empirical studies. In most studies for the U.S. structural breaks were found in the 1970s and the 1980s. In the present study a money demand function is specified in error-correction-form which involves realM1, realGNP, the deflator and a short-term interest rate. Using flexible least squares it is shown for the U.S. that the long-run coefficients ofM1, GNP and the interest rate are relatively stable over a period of more than 30 years while the deflator does not enter the relation. The instability of the relation is mainly due to changes in the short-term dynamics.The author thanks Martin Moryson for outstanding research assistance. The computations were performed with a GAUSS program written by the late Wolfgang Schneider.