中央银行利润、财政铸币税和最优铸币税的探讨

中央银行的利润主要受机会成本铸币税以及转移的机会成本铸币税二者共同作用的影响。文章定义的财政铸币税（fiscal seigniorage）包括央行上缴的利润,扣除对央行支付的利息,再加上央行对政府存款所支付的利息,以及央行对政府债权和政府存款的变动等。文章理论分析认为央行利润、财政铸币税和通货膨胀率存在非线性关系,在MIU模型下,铸币税呈U型特征或"倒U型"特征,这与铸币税因子和货币需求函数的变动特征有关。ARDL模型实证结果显示我国中央银行货币铸币税、央行利润和财政铸币税的变动存在"U型"特征;转移的机会成本铸币税呈现"倒U型"特征;机会成本铸币税既没有"U型"特征,也没有"倒U型"特征。以MIU模型中的货币需求函数为前提,铸币税的U型或倒U型特征取决于铸币税因子的变动特征。     

利率变动对国际铸币税的影响

国际储备货币的一个重要收益是货币主权国家将会获得相当规模的国际铸币税,而国际铸币税受到众多因素的影响。文章利用费雪方程式和非抛补利率平价理论构建模型,基于储备货币主权国的角度从定性到定量分析了利率水平对于一国国际铸币税的影响。实证结果表明:一国利率水平对该国未来国际铸币税的规模起到负向的影响作用,当期利率的提高会导致下一期国际铸币税的减少,反之亦然。这一结论对于刚刚加入SDR一篮子货币,同时正在进行利率市场化改革的中国来说有着重要的启示,中国只有继续推动人民币国际化并维持利率稳定才有可能更好地享受国际铸币税收益。     

中央银行铸币税的测算

如何测算中央银行铸币税是一个重要问题,但由于关注的侧重点不同,文献中使用了不同的测算方式,还没有文献对这些测算方式给予详细说明.区别于其他文献,本文首先对中央银行铸币税给出理论界定,详细地讨论可兑换货币和不可兑换货币两种情形下中央银行铸币税的测算;在此基础上详细讨论文献中使用的机会成本铸币税、货币铸币税、通货膨胀税在测算中央银行铸币税时的适用范围,并说明了中央银行铸币税和中央银行利润的关系.     

1900—1928年天津金融风潮研究——以货币发行为分析中心

<正>中国在很长历史时期,货币并不统一,铸币权由政府和民间分享。晚清以来,中国面临内忧外患,铸币权渐由官民分享转向政府垄断。1935年,国民政府实施法币改革,这种转向最终完成。国家垄断货币发行是近代世界的潮流,中国同样顺流而去。在此过程中,中国传统币制多被斥为混乱无序、极度落后。这种混乱落后有无某些合理因素?应该如何评价这种巨变?20世纪70年代,哈耶克提出货币非国家化理论,明确反对国家统一货币,强调货币应该多元发行。这为我们重新审视中国传统币制带来很大启发。货币是金融的核心,货币发行理论博大精深。如能选取一个城市,结合哈耶克的理论,比较政府发行货币与民间发行货币的利弊得失,则有希望在货币发行理论中寻幽探     

关于国际铸币税收益的再探讨

铸币税是一个国家的中央银行凭借着发行货币的权利而得到的一种类似于税收的收益,而国际铸币税则是一个国家凭借着本国货币的国际储备货币地位所获得一种类似于国内铸币税收益。国际铸币税收益有流量和存量之分,美国凭借着美元的主要国际储备货币地位获得了巨额的国际铸币税收益。但是,国际铸币税在性质上是一种债务,一旦美国经济地位下降,美国将返还以前的国际铸币税收益,从而有可能对持有美元的国家造成重大损失,也可能对美国经济带来严重的不利影响。     

发展中国家物价上涨趋势与政府对策

<正> 物价,特别是消费品价格,是制约货币收入向实际购买力的转换水平的关键因素。在货币发行量既定的条件下,物价普遍上涨率是测定一国通货膨胀程度的基本标准。对于广大发展中国家来说,名义货币的实际购买力的降低,一是因货币的过度供给,二是因物价的上涨,这两者之间既相互区别又相互关联.就物价而言,它对各国经济的影响是双重的,即不仅通过要素价格的变化,影响各国生产力资源的配置,以及经济增长,而且又通过个人消费品价格的消长,影响各国居民的实际收入与生活水平。这种双重作用,往往使各国政府在物价问题上面临两难选择:在运用价格杠杆调节社会总供给与社会总需求的均衡中,是优先考虑经济增长还是首先满足个人消费?这一难题,在发展中国家的社会再生产过程中也同样存在。     

美元国际铸币税为美国带来的收益和风险分析

1944年召开的布雷顿森林会议确立了美元在国际货币体系中的中心地位.20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后,美元在国际货币制度中的地位虽然有所下降,也先后受到了日元和欧洲货币的一定程度的挑战,但由于其他货币尚不具备取代美元的实力,美元仍然是全球经贸活动中最为重要的货币.根据国际金融统计(IFS)的数据,截至2003年年底,美元在全球外汇储备、外贸结算、外汇交易结算中所占比重分别为63.8%、48%、83%.美元作为国际货币对国际贸易的稳步发展、国际金融市场的运行和稳定起到了极其重要的作用;同时美国也从美元的国际地位中获益颇多,如美国可以获得国际铸币税及其他间接收益.不过,美国也承担了铸币税逆转风险等潜在的风险,其国内经济更容易受到国际资本流动的影响.本文将国际铸币税收入划分为三个层次,估算美元作为国际货币的收益,并分析美国为维持美元的国际货币地位所承担的风险,为人民币今后逐步走向国际化提供有益的参考和借鉴.     

1900—1928年天津金融风潮研究——以货币发行为分析中心北大核心CSSCISSCI

中国在很长历史时期,货币并不统一,铸币权由政府和民间分享。晚清以来,中国面临内忧外患,铸币权渐由官民分享转向政府垄断。1935年,国民政府实施法币改革,这种转向最终完成。国家垄断货币发行是近代世界的潮流,中国同样顺流而去。在此过程中,中国传统币制多被斥为混乱无序、极度落后。这种混乱落后有无某些合理因素？应该如何评价这种巨变？     

“劣币”何以驱逐“良币”

无论是在中国还是在西方,铸造重量轻、成色低的铸币在古代货币流通中都反复发生,短暂的足值铸币稳定流通的状况往往被不足值铸币流通的不稳定状况所代替。当劣币出现于流通中时,人们则会把足值货币收存起来。这就叫"劣币驱逐良币律"。在现实生活中,类似这样的现象也不乏其例。     

绚丽多姿的铸币世界

绚丽多姿的铸币世界陈军金属铸币，在货币家族里占有重要的一席。几千年的货币史上，最早脱离实物范畴的就是铸币。中国从商、周的青铜贝币到封建王朝结束时的３０００多年历史中，铸币一直占有主导地位。与纸币相比，铸币有许多独特之处。铸币由于质地坚硬、使用寿命长，...     

Restaurant Prices and the Mexican Peso

Of prime interest to border economies is exchange rate performance and currency valuation. Commonly used tools for this task include purchasing power parity (PPP) nominal benchmarks, and inflation-adjusted trade-weighted indices. The latter have the advantage of relying on commonly available international macroeconomic data but overlook microeeonomic information that may offer additional insight to issues surrounding exchange rate policy debates. Other efforts have utilized small samples of international product price comparisons to shed light on currency valuation questions. This paper develops one such tool by repeated sampling of prices charged for identical menu items sold at restaurant franchises in El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua. A battery of statistical tests indicate that the international currency value of the peso consistently differed from the exchange rate implied by the border region restaurant price ratios in 1997, 1998, and 1999.     

Generalized purchasing power parity and the case of the European Union as a successful currency area

This article uses multicountry purchasing power parity (PPP) tests to study the success of the European monetary system (EMS) in creating a successful currency area for a stable European monetary union. If the EMS has sufficiently integrated the fundamentals within the European Union, then real exchange rates between member countries will share a common stationary trend when denominated by a common outside currency. Previous research using two-country PPP tests have been inadequate in explaining the nonstationary nature of real exchange rates between the EMS countries and nonmember countries. The use of generalized PPP tests can show that even though individual exchange rates within the EMS may appear to be nonstationary with respect to outside countries, some of them will combine to form a currency union with a stable stationary trend.     

完善政府采购投标保证金制度的思考

在政府采购活动中,设立投标保证金是招标文件的重要条款,在招投标活动中发挥着约束招投标行为、维护政府采购活动严肃性等积极作用。但目前投标保证金也存在相关法律制度不健全、缺乏有效的监督管理等问题。因此,必须进一步完善政府采购投标保证金的法律法规,加大监管处罚力度,这样才能充分发挥投标保证金的积极作用,保证政府采购招投标工作的顺利开展。     

通货膨胀与人民币升值并存问题研究

据"购买力平价理论",开放经济条件下,高通货膨胀率引起通货对外贬值,而我国目前的经济表现是高通货膨胀率环境下人民币汇率对外升值态势更加强劲,这一经济现象与传统的经济学原理相违背,给国民经济健康发展造成极大危害。本文分析了通货膨胀与人民币升值并存的原因,提出了相应的政府调控政策建议。     

通货膨胀与汇率升值并存的分析——人民币对内贬值和对外升值的原因

中国通货膨胀和人民币对美元汇率上升同时出现,人民币对内贬值和对外升值形成了鲜明的对照。这一现象意味着购买力平价不成立,人民币的实际汇率正在上升。本文证明,人民币实际汇率上升反映了中国产品国际竞争力的提高和巴拉萨-萨谬尔森效应的逐渐显示。     

How Japan remained on the Gold Standard despite unsustainable external debt

In the period of the classic gold standard, most peripheral countries were frequently affected by so-called sudden stops as well as by financial and currency crises. Yet pre-War Japan was an outlier. Though its level of external debt was not sustainable, Japan issued many government foreign loans to cover its current account deficits, was never affected by currency crises, and was never forced to suspend convertibility. We argue that, from the late nineteenth century until just before World War I, Japan and Britain engaged in a politico-economic exchange: Japan offered to protect Britain's economic and political interests in the Far East provided that Britain gave the rising Asian power access to financial markets—namely, in the City of London.     

EVIDENCE OF PURCHASING POWER PARITY IN SILVER‐BACKED MEXICO AND INDIA

This paper examines whether the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) existed between Mexico and India for the period 1886–1910. It finds that despite not having a known trade relationship, PPP did hold. The explanation lies in the fact that these very different countries adhered to the silver standard far longer than most others – India through to 1893 and Mexico until 1905. The economic consequences of this adherence exposed both countries to similar international currency fluctuations that also provoked similar policy reactions within each country.     

东亚货币合作——基于最优货币区理论的分析

随着经济全球化和区域化的发展,世界范围内的区域金融合作也深入开展起来。欧元的成功实践为国际货币体系改革提供了宝贵的经验,也为东亚国家(地区)开展货币合作提供了良好的示范效应。本文先从东亚货币合作的必要性出发,然后对货币合作的理论基础——最优货币区理论进行探讨,接着按照最优货币区理论的标准和结论对东亚货币合作的经济基础进行分析,最后对东亚货币合作给出一些看法。     

Export Currency Pricing and Fiscal Multipliers

This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the implications of the use of foreign currency in export pricing for fiscal policy in East Asian economies. The result shows that external currency pricing amplifies the effect of an exogenous government spending shock on output. The impact and cumulative multipliers are larger under external currency pricing. However, the result depends on the government policy regime. When the government allows for a systematic response of government spending to public debt, the multipliers in the medium-term are smaller under external currency pricing.     

The Great Deflation of 1929–33: it (almost) had to happen1

There are many explanations of the fall in prices and production called the Great Depression of 1929–33, but this article argues that a sufficient explanation of the price fall—the Great Deflation—was the resumption of the gold convertibility of currencies at prewar parities. The value (general purchasing power) of a convertible currency must be the relative cost of producing gold and other goods, which did not change significantly between 1914 and the 1930s. Monetary and fiscal policies might have affected the timing but not the ends of the price paths that were determined by the decisions to resume.