保险投资和实物黄金投资的抗通货膨胀能力比较

通货膨胀是现代经济的一个普遍现象,也是投资者在投资过程中面临的重要风险之一.通货膨胀的主要危害是削弱投资者实际购买力,从而使投资者对投资产品的信心减弱,购买投资产品意愿降低.近年来,我国经济呈现不稳定状态,CPI指数的跌宕波动显示出通货膨胀的压力,因此,如何在不同时期选择不同投资方式来抵抗通货膨胀对个人投资的影响尤为重...     

Is Financial Reporting Still Useful? Australian Evidence

There has been recent and growing criticism of the usefulness of financial reporting for investors, particularly the annual financial statements. In response, the IASB is pursuing several projects aimed at improving the relevance of financial information. To inform the IASB’s work, we investigate, using a mixed-method approach, the extent and nature of the use of annual financial statements by equity investors. We examine the relevance of financial reporting for equity valuation in Australia across time. We find that financial reporting (specifically, reported net income, shareholders’ equity, and operating cash flows) remains relevant for investment decisions. We further support this finding with evidence from field interviews that provide insight into how and why financial statements are used by equity investors. The field evidence also demonstrates that no one financial statement dominates in investor decision making. Given the increasing availability of more timely, forward-looking information from alternative sources, we examine the relevance of non-GAAP financial information and other non-financial information for investor decision making. We find that non-GAAP financial information (as proxied by EBIT and EBITDA) is more value relevant than statutory measures. We further find a broad range of non-financial information is utilized by investors in making investment decisions both as a ‘screen’ and for valuation purposes. Our findings inform regulators and other stakeholders as we provide evidence of the continuing relevance of financial statements and the complementary role of non-GAAP financial and other information. Our evidence provides a rebuttal to the recent criticism.     

Analysts' Roundtable on Integrating ESG into Investment Decision‐Making

In this third of the three discussions that took place at the SASB 2016 Symposium, practitioners of a broad range of investment approaches—active as well as passive in both equities and fixed‐income—explain how and why they use ESG information when evaluating companies and making their investment decisions. There was general agreement that successful ESG investing depends on integrating ESG factors with the methods and data of traditional “fundamental” financial statement analysis. And in support of this claim, a number of the panelists noted that some of the world's best “business value investors,” including Warren Buffett, have long incorporated environmental, social, and governance considerations into their investment decision‐making. In the analysis of such active fundamental investors, ESG concerns tend to show up as risk factors that can translate into higher costs of capital and lower values. And companies' effectiveness in managing such factors, as ref lected in high ESG scores and rankings, is viewed by many fundamental investors as an indicator of management “quality,” a reliable demonstration of the corporate commitment to investing in the company's future. Moreover, some fixed‐income investors are equally if not more concerned than equity investors about ESG exposures. ESG factors can have pronounced effects on performance by generating “tail risks” that can materialize in both going‐concern and default scenarios. And the rating agencies have long attempted to reflect some of these risks in their analysis, though with mixed success. What is relatively new, however, is the frequency with which fixed income investors are engaging companies on ESG topics. And even large institutional investors with heavily indexed portfolios have become more aggressive in engaging their portfolio companies on ESG issues. Although the traditional ESG filters used by such investors were designed mainly just to screen out tobacco, firearms, and other “sin” shares from equity portfolios, investors' interest in “tilting” their portfolios toward positive sustainability factors, in the form of lowcarbon and gender‐balanced ETFs and other kinds of “smart beta” portfolios, has gained considerable momentum.     

Individual investors’ information use,subjective expectations,and portfolio risk and return

What information do individual investors use when making their financial decisions and how is it related to their stock market expectations, their confidence in these expectations, and the risk and return of their stock portfolios? I study these questions by combining survey data on the information usage among individual investors in Sweden with detailed registry data on their stock portfolios. I find that investors use filtered financial information (e.g. information packaged by a professional intermediary) more frequently than they use unfiltered financial information (e.g. information from annual reports and financial statements). Investors who frequently use filtered financial information are, however, more confident in their stock market expectations and take larger risks in their stock portfolios. Investors that instead use unfiltered financial information take lower portfolio risks and obtain higher portfolio returns. The findings in this paper thus suggest that investors can improve their financial decisions by using more unfiltered financial information rather than filtered financial information when they make their financial decisions.     

Financial advice and gender: Wealthy individual investors in the UK

We examine how gender differences in investment risk tolerance, knowledge, confidence and portfolio cash allocations relate to the gender mix of investors and financial advisors among a sample of wealthy individuals in the UK. Our results demonstrate that gender effects are more nuanced than previously assumed. First, while even wealthy women consider themselves more conservative and allocate a higher proportion of their investable assets to cash than men, previous findings of lower investment knowledge and confidence do not extend to our sample. Second, having an advisor matters. Advised investors perceive themselves to have a higher risk tolerance and invest 10.6%-points more than self-directed investors. Finally, the investor-advisor gender combination matters, but only for female investors. Women with male advisors are more risk averse, feel less knowledgeable and less confident about their investment decisions. They also invest 11%-points less than women with female advisors. Indeed, female investors advised by women report the highest risk tolerance and make the lowest portfolio allocation to risk-free assets across the full sample, including men.     

内部控制缺陷信息披露对个人投资者风险认知的影响:一项实验研究

研究个人投资者对内部控制信息披露的反应机理具有重要的与内部控制披露管制相关的政策含义。本文运用实验研究方法,研究了内部控制缺陷信息披露对个人投资者风险认知的影响。研究发现,内部控制缺陷的严重程度对个人投资者的风险认知具有显著影响,但投资者对不披露任何缺陷与披露重要缺陷并没有进行差异化的风险认知反应;管理层对内部控制缺陷的描述程度对个人投资者的风险认知无显著影响。本文研究还发现,对管理者的信任是内部控制缺陷对个人投资者风险认知影响的一个重要中介变量;注册会计师的内部控制审计报告对个人投资者风险认知具有显著影响,在披露内部控制缺陷的情况下,对内部控制审计报告的使用程度越高,越能强化内部控制缺陷对个人投资者风险认知的消极影响。     

Understanding investors’ reliance on disclosures of nonfinancial information and mitigating mechanisms for underreliance

This study uses two experiments to examine whether nonprofessional investors rely on voluntarily disclosed nonfinancial information (NFI) and the factors that affect their reliance on such information. Results from experiment one suggest that nonfinancial disclosure affects high-experience (long-term) investors more than low-experience (short-term) investors. In addition, more investing experience seems to compensate the insensitivity to NFI caused by a short-term investment horizon. Results from experiment two suggest that merely requiring participants to evaluate firms’ performance separately based on the financial and nonfinancial measures (NFMs) – or merely presenting the NFMs in a more readable format – does not significantly alter the reliance on the nonfinancial disclosure for low-experience and short-term investors. However, when the two interventions are implemented simultaneously, NFI significantly affects the amount invested by those investors.     

Do individual investors learn from their trading experience?

After analyzing retail investors’ stock trades for potential learning behavior, we present evidence that individual investors learn from their trading experience. Initially, we question whether investors’ previous forecasting ability (inferred from prior purchases’ subsequent risk-adjusted performance) affects their future trade profitability and activity. Indeed, as an investor's inferred ability increases, so does her ensuing trade profitability and intensity. Further, because additional investment experience allows more accurate ability inference, we posit that trading experience should help investors obtain better investment performance. Consistent with this hypothesis, not only do excess portfolio returns improve with account tenure, but we also find that trade quality (i.e., average raw and excess buy-minus-sell returns) significantly increases with experience (i.e., calendar time and account tenure). In sum, individual stock investors do learn, and they consequently adjust their behavior and thus effectively improve their investment performance.     

How to Integrate ESG into Investment Decision‐Making: Results of a Global Survey of Institutional Investors

The authors review the findings of their global survey of 582 institutional investors that were either practicing or planning to practice some degree of integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into their investment decision‐making process. The investors were evenly split between asset owners and asset managers, equity and fixed income, and across the three regions of the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa. The survey explored reasons for ESG investing; the barriers to such investing and investor approaches to overcoming them; and the time frames used for making investment decisions, evaluating the performance of managers, and awarding compensation. The authors report finding that the commonly perceived barriers to ESG integration—the belief that ESG integration requires sacrificing returns, that fiduciary duty prevents one from doing so, and unrealistically short‐term expectations for ESG to deliver outperformance—were not as great as commonly believed. The biggest barrier is the lack of high quality data about the performance of companies on their material ESG factors—a scarcity that the authors attribute to the lack of standards for measuring ESG performance and the lack of ESG performance data reported by companies. The results were very similar between asset owners and asset managers, equity and fixed income, and across regions. However, the investment horizons of asset owners were notably longer than those of asset managers, and the same was true of equity vs. fixed income investors. Investors in the Americas were more patient about time frames for seeing outperformance from ESG, while those in Asia Pacific were the least patient. There were also differences across regions in how to overcome the barriers to ESG integration.     

NARRATIVE CORPORATE SOCIAL DISCLOSURES: HOW MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE DO THEY MAKE TO INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING?

This paper reports the results of a study on the usefulness of typical social disclosures from corporate annual reports for investment decision-making. Rather than seek to solely survey respondents about their stated behaviour, the present study also seeks to examine if narrative social disclosures in the annual report actually impact on the behaviour of how investors allocate their investment funds. The experiment provides a basis for assessing the magnitude of any decision impacts. The results indicate that from a sample of sophisticated users (accountants and investment analysts) social disclosures from annual reports do not elicit any more than a 15% switch in investment funds. Furthermore, the switch in funds is not always in favour of the company providing the information. Consistent with these behavioural reactions the survey evidence also reveals moderate attitudes to the decision usefulness of narrative social disclosures for investment decision making.     

The effects of investment knowledge and visual communications on comprehension of investment disclosures

This study examines how online investors process and comprehend the disclosures about a mutual fund through two factors: Visual communications and knowledge about investing in mutual funds. The results reveal that visual communications of the disclosures affect investors’ attention toward and processing of the disclosures, but not comprehension of the disclosures. Specifically, two types of visual communications, semantic and feature primes, influence investors’ attention toward the disclosures and processing of the disclosures more than categorical primes. More importantly, investment knowledge influences comprehension of the disclosures. The results of this study promote informed investment decisions through two main approaches: Adopting effective visual communications of disclosures; and implementing investor education initiatives to enhance investors’ ability to process disclosures. In fact, an educated and informed investor provides the best defense against costly mistakes in investing.     

A behavioral analysis of investor diversification

This paper studies the link between individual investors’ portfolio diversification levels and various personal traits that proxy informational advantages and overconfidence. The analysis is based on objective data from the largest Turkish brokerage house tracking 59,951 individual investors’ accounts with a total of 3,248,654 million transactions over the period 2008–2010. Wealthier, highly educated, older investors working in the finance sector and those trading relatively often show higher diversification levels possibly because they are better equipped to obtain and process information. Finance professionals, married investors, and those placing high-volume orders through investment centers show poorer diversification possibly as a reflection of overconfidence. Our analysis reveals important nonlinear effects, implying that the marginal impact of overconfidence on diversification is not uniform across investors but varies according to the investor's information gathering and processing abilities.     

Technical Analysis as a Rational Tool of Decision Making for Professional Traders

The psychological background of technical analysis usage is investigated to further explain the popularity and common usage of technical analysis as an investment decision tool. Attitudes toward technical analysis of professional futures market traders and neophyte investors, represented by finance students, were examined. Technical analysis is one of the most popular methods supporting investment decisions and it is much more popular among future market traders than among neophyte investors. The concept of processing information was used to explain this phenomenon. Neophyte investors are more experiential and intuition-driven while using technical analysis models, while futures market traders are more rationally driven. Technical analysis methods help professional traders on futures markets, which are less transparent than regulated stock markets, to process information; those methods are perceived by them as rational, cognitive tools supporting their decision making.     

The Impact of Regulation FD on Institutional Investor Informativeness

Although there is conflicting evidence and resulting skepticism regarding the value provided by professional investment management, Gibson, Safieddine, and Sonti (2004) document institutional investor informativeness relative to seasoned equity offering (SEO) purchases. We find that Regulation Fair Disclosure's significantly reduces institutional investors’ ability to identify mispriced SEO firms. Informativeness is diminished not by investors following analysts who have experienced a reduction in forecasting accuracy, but limiting investors’ direct access to private information. This information loss is replaced by reliance on a greater number of public information variables resulting in less consideration for prudence proxies and a liquidity motive and more for higher price momentum.     

Welfare effects of information and rationality in portfolio decisions under parameter uncertainty

We analyse and quantify, in a financial market with parameter uncertainty and for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion investor, the utility effects of two different boundedly rational (i.e. sub-optimal) investment strategies (namely, myopic and unconditional strategies) and compare them with each other and with the utility effect of full information. We show that effects are mainly caused by full information and predictability, being the effect of learning marginal. We also investigate the saver's decision regarding whether to manage her/his portfolio personally (DIY investor) or hire, against the payment of a management fee, a professional investor and find that delegation is mainly motivated by the belief that professional advisors are, depending on investment horizon and risk aversion, either better informed (‘insiders’) or more capable of gathering and processing information, rather than possessing the ability to learn from financial data. In particular, for very short investment horizons, delegation is primarily, if not exclusively, motivated by the beliefs that professional investors are better informed.     

Examining the effect of deception detection decision aids on investors' perceptions of disclosure credibility and willingness to invest

Recent evidence suggests that the trend of issuing video disclosures is growing and investors are exposed to the risk of including deceptive information in their decisions. This study suggests that investors can use deception detection decision aids to identify deceptive behavior in video disclosures, and that the use of such decision aids affects their perceptions of disclosure credibility and willingness to invest. The theoretical framework of this study suggests that providing investors with a deception detection decision aid affects their willingness to invest through their perceptions of disclosure credibility, and that this effect is conditional on management's reputation. Using data from 387 nonprofessional investors, the findings provide support for the predicted effect of deception detection decision aid on investors' judgment and decision making. The effect of providing investors with a deception detection decision aid is fully mediated by investors' perceptions of disclosure credibility, and that effect is significantly stronger when management's reputation is good than when management's reputation is bad.     

Whose money is smart? Individual and institutional investors’ trades based on analyst recommendations

This study explores how institutional and individual investors respond to analyst recommendations. Using a unique account-level trading dataset taken from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we obtain direct evidence to show that (1) active institutional investors are significantly net buyers (net sellers) on “strong buy” and “buy” (“hold” and “sell”) recommendations; (2) active institutional investors condition their trades based on the buy-side pressure of analysts; (3) institutional investors earn abnormal returns by incorporating analysts’ buy-side pressure into their trading reactions to analyst recommendations; and (4) individual investors, in contrast, exhibit abnormal trade reactions opposite to those of active institutional investors. Our results are robust to alternative measures and different specifications. This study provides evidence that active institutional investors are more sophisticated processors of information and provides support for regulators’ concerns about the sub-optimal investment decisions made by individual investors who are unaware of the potential conflicts of interest analysts may face.     

Do Female Mutual Fund Managers Manage Differently?

We examine the performance and investment behavior of female fixed‐income mutual fund managers compared with male fixed‐income mutual fund managers. We find that male‐ and female‐managed funds do not differ significantly in terms of performance, risk, and other fund characteristics. Our results suggest that differences in investment behavior often attributed to gender may be related to investment knowledge and wealth constraints. Despite the similarities between male and female managers, we find evidence that gender influences the decision making of mutual fund investors. We find that the net asset flows into funds managed by females are lower than for males, especially for the manager's initial year managing the fund.     

Financial literacy and the demand for financial advice

The low level of financial literacy across households suggests that they are at risk of making suboptimal financial decisions. In this paper, we analyze the effect of investors’ financial literacy on their decision to demand professional, non-independent advice. We find that non-independent advisors are not sufficient to alleviate the problem of low financial literacy. The investors with a low level of financial literacy are less likely to consult an advisor, but they delegate their portfolio choice more often or do not invest in risky assets at all. We explain this evidence with a highly stylized model of strategic interaction between investors and better informed advisors with conflicts of interests. The advisors provide more information to knowledgeable investors, who anticipating this are more likely to consult them.