The effects of works councils on overtime hours

This study analyzes the relation between works councils and overtime hours in Germany. The estimated effects differ considerably in dependence of standard contracted working time. Furthermore, we find differences across the quantiles of the overtime hours distribution and these differences between quantiles also vary between employees of establishment with and without works councils. By considering contracted working time effects and comparing conditional quantiles we find in some quantiles that employees of establishments with a works council have a higher amount of overtime hours if an employee regularly works 35 hours per week. This effect diminishes with increasing quantiles of the distribution of overtime hours. If an employee of a codetermined establishment regularly works 40 hours per week, overtime hours are reduced. This reduction becomes larger if higher quantiles are analyzed.     

The effect of unemployment insurance on weekly hours of work in Canada

Major revisions to the Canadian unemployment insurance program in 1997 created a benefit structure that effectively provides more insurance to workers who are employed for longer workweeks. This anomaly creates an incentive for workers and firms to tailor their weekly work schedules to maximize net program benefits. Analysis of Labour Force Survey data shows that workers and firms responded to these changes by altering weekly hours as expected. This behavioural response demonstrates the sensitivity of hours of work decisions to labour market policies. JEL classification: J65
Les effets de l'assurance-chômage sur le nombre hebdomadaire d'heures de travail au Canada. Des changements majeurs dans le programme canadien d'assurance-chômage en 1997 ont mis en place une structure de prestations qui fournissait un support additionnel aux travailleurs qui travaillaient de plus longues heures dans la semaine. Cette anomalie a créé une incitation pour travailleurs et entreprises à ajuster leur cédule hebdomadaire de travail de manière à maximiser les bénéfices nets du programme. L'analyse des données de l'Enquête sur la population active montre que travailleurs et entreprises ont répondu à ces changements en ajustant les heures hebdomadaires de travail comme prévu. Cette réaction montre bien la sensitivité des heures de travail aux politiques du marché du travail.     

Employment and hours of work

This paper develops a dynamic model of the labor market in which the degree of substitution between employment and hours of work is determined as part of a search equilibrium. Each firm chooses its demand for working hours and number of vacancies, and the earnings profile is determined by Nash bargaining. The earnings profile is generally nonlinear in hours of work, and defines the trade-off between employment and hours of work. Concave production technology induces firms to overemploy and, as a result, hours of work are below their optimal level. The Hosios condition is not sufficient for efficiency. When there are two industries, workers employed by firms with higher recruitment costs work longer and earn more. That is, “good jobs” require longer hours of work. Interestingly, technology differentials cannot account for working hours differentials.     

Changes in women's hours of market work: The role of returns to experience

Over the past several decades, married women's hours of market work increased significantly in the US. I argue that changes in behavior by married women with children account for much of this change. In particular, the pattern of married women's work hours has changed substantially over the life cycle. In the past, married women in childbearing age tended to specialize in childrearing and home production activities at the expense of engaging in market work. Now they do not curb the hours they work in the market.What factors contribute to this change in behavior? In this paper, I focus on relative changes in returns to experience as an explanation. I use PSID data for the 1970s and the 1990s to estimate the extent to which relative returns to experience have changed. I then use a life-cycle model with human capital accumulation and home production to quantitatively assess the consequences of this increase for married women's hours of work over the life cycle.The estimates of the human capital production function show that women's marginal returns to experience increased by 25% across decades, whereas men's increased by only 6%. I show that this relative change accounts for 96% of the observed variation in married women's hours of work. Moreover, according to the model, the increase in returns to experience accounts for roughly half of the increase in the female/male wage ratio that is found in the data. I also show that a decline in the gender wage gap, holding returns to experience constant, accounts for only 18% of the total increase in hours of work. As a consequence, it cannot explain the change in the shape of women's life-cycle profiles. Although the focus of the analysis is the labor supply behavior of women, the model also allows predictions about the behavior of men and single women. These predictions are consistent with the data.     

The impact of Sunday shopping on employment and hours of work in the retail industry: Evidence from Canada

Between 1980 and 1998 every Canadian province passed legislation that in some way relaxed restrictions on Sunday shopping. This study exploits the variation in deregulation dates between provinces to identify how retail employers adjust employment and hours of work when deciding to open on Sundays. A major complication of this analysis is to first determine for which provinces the deregulation dates are useful indicators of increases in Sunday store openings. This paper uses a unique trading-day regression approach to identify these provinces and then uses aggregate data from the selected provinces to estimate a simple dynamic labour demand model that allows employment and hours to be imperfect substitutes in production. The results suggest that retailers’ needs for Sunday labour were disproportionately satisfied through increases in employment levels. Comparison of the estimates at three levels of the retail industry suggests that the employment and hours gains were larger among general merchandise stores than among more specialized retail establishments and relatively modest at the aggregate retail industry level. In addition, despite evidence of an immediate shortfall in the employment level below the long-run optimal level, the results suggest that firms were unable to compensate by temporarily increasing the hours of their existing employees.     

Dynamics and stability in IS-LM models: A re-examination

This paper shows that when inventory adjustments are introduced in production decisions, there is no longer such thing as a “stable” or “unstable” system of ISLM curves, even when the inventory policy is completely specified. For one such system and one inventory policy, the trajectories of output and interest rate can either be stable or unstable. The fact that the IS-LM diagram can no longer be regarded as a phase diagram leads to problems in the definition of the aggregate demand curve.     

Aggregate instability under balanced-budget consumption taxes: A re-examination

We re-examine the destabilizing role of balanced-budget fiscal policy rules based on consumption taxation. Using a one-sector model with infinitely-lived households, we consider a specification of preferences derived from Jaimovich (2008) [14] and Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) [15] which is flexible enough to encompass varying degrees of income effect. When the income effect is not too large, we show that there exists a Laffer curve, which explains the multiplicity of steady states, and that non-linear consumption taxation may destabilize the economy, promoting expectation-driven fluctuations, if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is sufficiently larger than one and the tax rate is counter-cyclical with respect to consumption. Numerical illustrations also show that consumption taxation may be a source of instability for most OECD countries for a wide range of structural parameters? configurations. We finally prove the robustness of our conclusions if we consider a discrete-time setup.     

The Verdoorn law revisited: A note

In his Fattori che regolano lo sviluppo della produttività del lavoro Verdoorn (1949) presented empirical evidence on the constancy of the ratio of productivity growth to output growth. As a theoretical underpinning he used a neoclassical growth model. The main purpose of this paper is to emphasize that in this model the ratio is constant only in the steady state. If Verdoorn's underpinning of his law is to be correct, the steady-state assumption should be empirically tested. Some available evidence for Verdoorn's sample appears to throw doubt upon this assumption.     

Participation and hours of work: Two stages in the life-cycle of married women

A 1979 cross-section of Dutch households is used to estimate an integrated labor force participation and hours of work labor supply model for women. Young women and older women are found to behave differently. Wage and income elasticities are always higher for older than for younger women (in absolute terms), and the relative importance of participation and hours elasticities is reversed as the average woman grows older, thereby implying that younger women tend to be more preoccupied with the participation decision whereas older women are more concerned with the hours decision. Econometrically the paper builds on Heckman's (1974) participation cum-hours model by adapting the estimation method to allow for the fact that hours worked are only observed in intervals. A maximum likelihood model in which we integrate over parts of the hours distribution is used. This technique, though computationally involved, gave satisfying results. We compare the results with estimates of a similar but much simpler probit model to identify the possible biases in the simpler approach.     

Individual incentives by adjusting work hours: Bellamy's egalitarian economy

Edward Bellamy proposed an ideal egalitarian economy in which production is carried out as a nonprofit government service, income is shared equally by all individuals independently of work exertion, and relative work hours are used as incentives to allocate labor to different jobs. This economy is shown to possess an equilibrium consistent with full freedom of individual choice of occupation and consumption, to be achieved through a fully decentralized titonnement process. However, individuals have an obligation to work which deprives them of their freedom to choose between income and leisure, so that the scale of output is indeterminate and may be nonoptimal unless a social-welfare function is introduced.     

The effect of a law limiting upcoding on hospital admissions: evidence from Italy

Policy makers have made several attempts to limit hospitals’ upcoding. We investigate the impact of a law introducing a minimum length of stay for discharges with complications. We analyze its effects on the probability of a discharge with complications, on its length of stay and on its reimbursement. We show that the policy has been effective in limiting upcoding, since, after the law, (1) the probability of a discharge with complications has decreased by 3%; (2) its length of stay has risen by 0.17 days more than the observed corresponding variation in the length of stay of a discharge in the control group; (3) the hospital’s revenue on a discharge with complications has decreased by 8.5% more than the observed revenue change on a discharge in the control group. Furthermore, we find evidence of an ownership effect on upcoding, since not-for-profit and for-profit hospitals have been more affected by the law than public hospitals.     

A re-examination of the savings displacement hypothesis

This paper re-examines the savings displacement hypothesis. It uses a new dataset that disaggregates aid into project aid, financial programme aid, technical assistance grants and programme food aid. When considering the whole sample of 97 countries, results obtained from estimating a savings function using the GMM-System approach to dynamic panel suggest that project aid flows are the only type of aid exerting a negative effect on domestic savings. The results also show that the effects of the different categories of aid on domestic savings vary across regions, thus highlighting the importance of regional disaggregation in cross-country studies. The author would like to thank Jean-Louis Grolleau at the OECD Credit Reporting System for his helpful advice and his encouragements during the construction of the disaggregated aid database used in this paper.     

Gender differences in the volatility of work hours and labor demand

This paper examines the role of heterogeneity in a real business cycle model, which traditionally has not fully captured the relative volatility of hours to output. Men and women have different cyclical volatilities in hours worked, which is robust to different filtering methods. This empirical regularity is used to motivate a standard RBC model augmented to allow for two different agents following Jaimovich et al. (2013). These two agents have identical utility functions, but face different elasticities of labor demand due to their different complementarities with capital. These estimated elasticities find that women are more complementary to capital. The calibrated model generates the cyclical volatility of work hours by gender and for the total hours worked that matches the U.S. data better than the traditional representative agent model. I then explore other extensions to this model including investigating the stability of the estimated labor demand elasticities and allowing for various Frisch elasticities of labor supply. This paper demonstrates that allowing for even broad levels of heterogeneity in a simple framework can increase the model’s tractability with the data. Since gender is important to explain U.S. business cycle dynamics, we need to carefully consider heterogeneity when analyzing counter-cyclical economic policy, as it may not have symmetric effects across assorted groups.     

The law of proportionate effect and OECD bank sectors

The paper investigates the growth dynamics of the bank sectors in the OECD area over the period 1985–1994 and examines whether the structural financial reforms of the late 1980s have affected their growth path. Based on a test of Gibrat's law of proportionate effect, it is found that the 1985–89 period was characterized by size convergence, implying that smaller bank sectors were expanding more rapidly. However, in the 1990–1994 period the pattern reversed to proportionate growth. The analysis of the determinants of bank market growth reveals that macroeconomic growth, operational bank efficiency, credit quality, and capitalization are the main drivers of bank industry growth.     

Estimates of a labour supply function using alternative measures of hours of work

Depending on data source, estimates of hours of work give widely different results both as to level and change. In this paper three alternative measures of hours worked are used to estimate a simple labour supply function to investigate if the estimated wage rate and income effects are data dependent as well. The measures used include those from time-use surveys and those from regular surveys. The latter are based on the responses to a question about normal weekly hours of market work. The results suggest that the estimates of the wage rate effects become much smaller when measures of normal hours are used compared to data collected for a well-defined time period close to the date of interview, such as time-use data. The income effects appear less sensitive to the choice of data.     

Deconstructing the law of effect

Do the consequences of past behavior alter future policy, as the law of effect assumes? Or, are behavioral policies based on behaviorally produced information about the state of the world, but not themselves subject to change? In the first case, stable policies are equilibria discovered by trial and error, so adjustments to abrupt changes in the environment must proceed slowly. In the second, adjustments can be as abrupt as the environmental changes. Matching behavior is the robust tendency of subjects to match the relative time and effort they invest in different foraging options to the relative incomes derived from them. Measurement of the time course of adjustments to step changes in the reward-scheduling environment show that adjustments can be as abrupt as the changes that drive them, and can occur with the minimum possible latency. Broader implications for theories about the role of experience in behavior are discussed.