The Impact of the Welfare State on the Economic Status of Indigenous Australian Women

This article uses census data and Department of Social Security administrative records to examine the role of social security income in explaining the growth and relative improvement in the income status of indigenous Australian women. The real median income of indigenous women was 81 per cent of that of non-indigenous women in 1991 compared with 74 per cent in 1976. Much of the change has come about from an improvement in the position of indigenous women who were not in employment. The article argues that much of this improvement can be attributed to increased access to social security benefits for indigenous women and therefore needs to be qualified by the circumstances in which these women live.     

The Cost of High and Long-Term Unemployment

The sharp increase in unemployment in the 1990s has focused attention once again on the causes, extent and effects of high and long-term unemployment. This article presents a methodology for estimating the cost, in income terms, that individuals and their families bear as a result of becoming unemployed. Estimates of the cost of job loss are developed for Australia for the period 1973 to 1992. Two methods of estimating the cost of job loss are presented in this article. The first method is the conditional cost of job loss which refers to the loss in income an employed person would incur over a given period of time if they became unemployed. In Australia, the conditional cost of job loss rose sharply in the mid 1980s and again in the early 1990s because of a marked increase in the average duration of unemployment which more than offset a slight increase in the net replacement ratio (that is, the ratio of unemployment income to wage income). The second cost of job loss measure we estimate is the expected cost of job loss. This measure refers to the difference between the expected income stream of workers and the income stream associated with continued certain employment. We interpret the expected cost of job loss as an indicator of the bargaining strength of workers.     

Self-assessed vs. statistical evidence of racial discrimination: the case of indigenous Australians

This paper provides new insights on the labour market discrimination faced by indigenous Australians one of the most disadvantaged indigenous populations in developed countries. Combining two large, nationally representative datasets, we decompose the employment gap between indigenous and non-indigenous populations as of 2014–2015, and show that differences in characteristics between the two groups account for only 43% of the employment gap for females, and 23% of the gap for males. We then demonstrate that statistical measures are positively related to discrimination reports of females and negatively related to discrimination reports of males. Our findings underscore the importance of improving transparency in employment processes for addressing the issue of disadvantage of racial minorities.     

Fewer in Number but Harder to Employ: Incidence and Duration of Unemployment in an Economic Upswing

During an upswing in the Norwegian labour market in the early 1990s, inflow to unemployment fell by one-quarter from October 1991 to October 1993. In contrast, the employment probabilities of the inflow rose much less for males and even decreased for females. A duration analysis showed that the average "employability" of the unemployment inflow declined due to lower previous income, a lower proportion with job experience, a higher proportion with previous unemployment experience, a higher proportion with immigrant background, and a lower proportion on recall. They were fewer in number, but harder to employ.
JEL classification : E 32; J 64     

The Labour Market and Inequality

Newspoll reported in 2000 that by a margin of 70 to 28 per cent, Australians would prefer the gap between rich and poor to get smaller rather than have the nation's overall wealth grow as quickly as possible. This article examines the reasons for the increase in the dispersion of earnings, and changes in unemployment and workforce participation, which are central to this concern about inequality. The major finding is that the widening dispersion of earnings and changes in labour force status are principally due to changes in the structure of labour demand in favour of more skilled jobs. The article then considers what this changing job mix implies for policy directed to maintaining income inequality.     

Aspects of Australian and US Living Standards: The Disappointing Decades 1970–1990*

One theme documents the parallel US and Australian histories of real wages, employment and unemployment since 1950 and notes the break in relativities in the mid 1970s which began with a 30 per cent Australian real wage increase relative to the US. Since then Australian real wages have remained constant, unemployment increased fourfold and the male full-time employment-population ratio fallen 25 per cent The other theme relates to the widening dispersion of male real wages, the large job loss from the middle of the earnings distribution and rapid employment growth at low earnings     

Job Security,Financial Security and Worker Well‐being: New Evidence on the Effects of Flexible Employment

This paper uses panel data drawn from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey to provide new evidence of the links between unemployment, wages, job security, financial security and workers' well‐being for workers in flexible employment. Our findings indicate that workers in flexible employment encounter more unemployment and experience increased job insecurity; unemployment is associated with wage penalties. Lower wages, job insecurity and financial insecurity affect well‐being. However, these negative outcomes are mitigated by longer job tenure. Our results have implications for moves towards a flexicurity model of employment     

Labour Market Inefficiency and Frictional Unemployment in Australia and its States: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

This paper provides estimates of labour market inefficiency and the frictional unemployment rate for Australia and its States over the period January 1978 to December 1997. These estimates are derived from parametric statistical models of employment growth in which technical inefficiencies are accounted for. The mean estimate of the (technically efficient) frictional unemployment rate for Australia over the sample period is S3 per cent of the labour force. Technical inefficiency in the labour market matching process is significant and contributes around 13 per cent to the mean steady-state (naturaľ) unemployment rate. Investigation of the factors explaining the levels of inefficiency suggests that inefficiencies vary countercyclical, are related to which political party is in power and the time of year and that only Western Australia and Queensland have exhibited a significant decline in inefficiency over the period.     

Equilibrium unemployment, search behaviour and unemployment persistency

Unemployment persistency and high equilibrium unemployment isoften assumed to be caused by rigidities and low search efficiencyin the labour market, especially in European welfare stateswith generous income replacement schemes. These arguments aretested on data from Sweden, an old welfare state with a longperiod of full employment that has changed into a situationwith high unemployment. Data show a clear and very strong unemploymentduration dependency, but it is not possible to prove that thisis a result of low employability among the long-term unemployed.Getting a job is most of all associated with relative qualifications,recall expectations and local labour market conditions, andnot with search behaviour or high wage demands. It is arguedthat unemployment duration when unemployment is high can bestbe understood as a selection process rather than a search process,and that econometric estimations of equilibrium unemploymentare too pessimistic about the potential for an expansive economicpolicy. It is also argued that an active labour market policyis a more efficient compliment to such a policy than changesin income replacement ratios.     

Do Benefit Cuts Boost Job Finding? Swedish Evidence from the 1990s

In June 1995, the Swedish parliament decided to cut the replacement rate in unemployment insurance from 80% to 75%, a change that took effect on 1 January 1996. The paper exploits a quasi-experimental feature of the benefit reform to examine the effect on job finding. We compare the evolution of transitions to employment before and after the reform among those affected and those not affected. Our estimates suggest that the reform caused an increase in the transition rate of roughly 10%. Moreover, the reform appears to have affected behaviour several months before its actual implementation in January 1996.     

Optimum income taxation and layoff taxes

This paper analyzes optimum income taxation in a model with endogenous job destruction that gives rise to unemployment. It is shown that optimal tax schemes comprise both payroll and layoff taxes when the state provides public unemployment insurance and aims at redistributing income. The optimal layoff tax is equal to the social cost of job destruction, which amounts to the sum of unemployment benefits (that the state pays to unemployed workers) and payroll taxes (that the state does not get when workers are unemployed).     

Youth labor market expectations and job matching in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from school-to-work transition surveys

In this paper, we investigate the factors that influence youth labour market expectations and outcomes. We also perform a job matching exercise to understand youth labour market dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results show that youth education is an influential factor of youth employment expectations and employment, ceteris paribus. Higher educational attainments have a great impact on expecting and securing better jobs, particularly in the technical and professional fields. Youth with low educational attainments, particularly primary education and lower, have a higher tendency to expect to be employed in occupations with low job complexity. Our results indicate a severe job-skill mismatch in all occupational categories, both before and after the youth’s transition into the labour market. Using education as the only selection criterion, we found that less than 10 per cent of employment expectations match with skills required while 55 per cent and 34 per cent are under or over-educated for the jobs expected, respectively. Over and under education is a notable feature in youth labour markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. About 47 per cent of employed youth in the sample are overqualified for their respective jobs while 28 per cent are under qualified.     

“Jobs for all”: Another dream of the rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

The Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. wrote extensively on economic matters, especially unemployment policy. King supported a federal job guarantee for anyone ready and willing to work. He believed it would provide employment and income security, as well as increased public and community services. Dr. King's writings on employment are reviewed and discussed. His policy proposals are just as relevant today as they were when they were first put forward some forty years ago.     

浅析中国失业现状及其解决对策

近来,由于受金融危机的影响,中国的就业状况面临严峻考验.为此,应采取积极有效措施提高劳动者就业能力,转变就业观念,优化产业结构,完善社会保障制度,扩大内需,以推动就业,消减失业影响.     

Employment- and growth effects of tax reforms

Since the mid-1990s almost all OECD countries have engaged in fundamental reforms of their tax systems. There is a trend towards higher social security contributions and lower tax rates on personal and corporate income. This paper explores whether these tax policy measures are effective means for reducing unemployment and accelerating economic growth. Using a Pissarides type search model with endogenous growth, we analyze how savings and the incentive to create new jobs are affected by revenue-neutral tax swaps between wage income taxes, payroll taxes, capital income taxes and taxes levied on capital costs. In our framework, cutting the capital income tax (reducing the double taxation of dividend income) financed by a higher payroll tax turns out to be superior, such a policy mix fosters both employment and growth. Most other tax reforms imply a trade-off between employment and growth.     

HOW TO VALUE THE POORER PROSPECTS OF YOUTH IN THE EARLY 1990s?

Young workers in the 1990s can expect greater economic insecurity, as well as lower average earnings, compared to older workers, or compared to the youth of previous decades. The cost of greater insecurity depends upon an individual's probability of unemployment, marginal utility of income gains/losses and the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption over time by borrowing and drawing down assets. Since unemployment insurance cutbacks and higher unemployment have increased the risk exposure of youth, changes in the expected value of their income may understate utility losses as measured by the change in certainty equivalent income.
This paper uses a behavioural microsimulation model to compare the impacts of 1971 and 1994 unemployment insurance legislation and unemployment rates in Canada. It calculates both the expected value of income changes and, using a Stone-Geary utility function, the change in inequality of well-being (as measured by certainty equivalent income) for youth and for prime age workers. Both calculations reveal that youth were disproportionately affected by Canada's changing labour market environment. Very few youth have enough assets to finance consumption during spells of unemployment.     

A net impact analysis of active labour programmes in Hungary

This paper presents estimates of the impact on re-employment and earnings of the two most popular active labour programmes used during the economic transition in Hungary: retraining and public service employment (PSE). To adjust for non-random assignment of programme participants, net impacts were computed using matched pair samples and regression models. The evidence suggests retraining may improve the chance for reemployment, is unlikely to improve re-employment earnings, but may improve job durability. Net societal benefits could be improved by retraining relatively more males, older persons, and those with less education. PSE does not appear to provide a reliable path to a regular non-subsidized job, and may even lower re-employment earnings. PSE might best be viewed as an income transfer programme having the collateral benefit of maintaining basic work habits. The net societal impact of PSE could increase if it involved relatively more females and older persons.     

Employment Status Persistence in the Japanese Labour Market

The growth of non‐standard employment has become a cause for concern for policy‐makers trying to boost output and keep unemployment low while also maintaining job security. This paper estimates a dynamic unobserved effects model using the Keio Household Panel Survey, an individual‐level panel data set, to investigate the effects on future employment opportunities of employment in Japan's non‐standard employment and regular employment sectors. I find strong evidence of persistence within the labour market, suggesting that past employment experience has a significant impact on future labour market outcomes.     

THE DECLINE IN MALE EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA: A COHORT ANALYSIS

We use Census data to investigate the sources of the decline in the level of employment of working age males in Australia in recent decades. Alternative measures of the male employment rate are considered before settling on two complementary measures: the full‐time employment rate and the full‐time equivalent employment rate. The latter measure weights part‐time jobs according to the fraction of a full‐time job they represent. Models of the determinants of these two employment rates are estimated using data from the Censuses conducted between 1971 and 2001. We construct a pseudo panel by ‘stacking’ the seven Census data sets ( Deaton, 1997 ; Kapteyn, et al., 2005 ). This facilitates the tracing of birth cohorts over time, in turn making it possible to control for cohort unobserved heterogeneity that may bias cross‐sectional estimates of effects of other characteristics, in particular age and year/time period. We produce evidence that a number of factors have contributed to the decline in male employment, including the decline in couple households with dependent children, growth in income taxes and welfare replacement rates and changes in the structure of labour demand away from traditionally male‐dominated industries. We also find that, all else (observable) constant, more recent birth cohorts have no lower – and possibly higher – employment rates than earlier birth cohorts.