近期汇率体制改革后股价与汇率的联动效应及其检验

在全球外部失衡的宏观背景下，伴随着中国经济体制市场化和金融深化进程的加快，股票价格同汇率波动的相关性日益增强。根据从理论层面阐释二者相互作用的潜在机制和渠道，并采用中国的数据利用协整分析，发现在汇率体制改革（2005年7月21日）之后，二者的波动存在稳定的协整关系和双向的因果关系。因此，应理顺二者的互动机制需要推进各方面的综合改革，理顺这两个核心变量的互动机制，保持经济高效和健康发展。     

Reviews of the research on water resources management system at home and abroad

The reform of the system of water resource management abroad has started since the 50s of last century, it has left us a lot of experiences in many aspects with the innovation of system, such as the legal environment in water resources, water rights, water market theory, and the ＂participation＂ management of water resources, these experiences has been promoted in more than 40 developing countries. Based on analyzing the theory and experiences of water resources management both at home and abroad, especially the theory and experiences of agricultural water resources management, this paper puts forward the main problems waiting for further investigation in China＇s water resources management and provides some reference and inspiration for the innovation of the system of water resource management in China.     

限售股流通与股价效应关系的实证研究

本文运用事件研究法对限售股上市流通的股价效应进行了实证研究。研究结果袁明：限售股的上市流通带来负的股价效应;样本公司的特征及股票的交易特性显著影响股价效应;在累积超额收益率为正的样本中,累积超额收益率与净资产收益率负相关,与区间日均股票换手率、股票每股收益正相关;在累积超额收益率为负的样本中,累积超额收益率与IPO到限售流通股上市流通的时间、账面市值比、区间日均成交量负相关。     

The water footprint of coffee and tea consumption in the Netherlands

A cup of coffee or tea in our hand means manifold consumption of water at the production location. The objective of this study is to assess the global water footprint of the Dutch society in relation to its coffee and tea consumption. The calculation is carried out based on the crop water requirements in the major coffee and tea exporting countries and the water requirements in the subsequent processing steps. In total, the world population requires about 140 billion cubic metres of water per year in order to be able to drink coffee and tea. The standard cup of coffee and tea in the Netherlands costs about 140 l and 34 l of water respectively. The largest portions of these volumes are attributable to growing the plants. The Dutch people account for 2.4% of the world coffee consumption. The total water footprint of Dutch coffee and tea consumption amounts to 2.7 billion cubic metres of water per year (37% of the annual Meuse runoff). The water needed to drink coffee or tea in the Netherlands is not Dutch water. The most important sources for the Dutch coffee are Brazil and Colombia and for the Dutch tea Indonesia, China and Sri Lanka. The major volume of water to grow the coffee plant comes from rainwater. For the overall water need in coffee production, it makes hardly any difference whether the dry or wet production process is applied, because the water used in the wet production process is a very small fraction (0.34%) of the water used to grow the coffee plant. However, the impact of this relatively small amount of water is often significant. First, it is blue water (abstracted from surface and ground water), which is sometimes scarcely available. Second, the wastewater generated in the wet production process is often heavily polluted.     

Estimation of the effects of price on apartment water demand using cointegration and error correction techniques

Water price is a key instrument in regulating water demand in the residential sector. Many empirical studies have assessed the effects of price through quantifying the price elasticity of water demand. However, most of these studies have mainly focused on the single-family housing rather the multifamily housing. An in-depth understanding of the price elasticity of multifamily housing water demand is paramount for water planners in order to properly manage water use in the fast growing intensive housing developments in urban areas. This study investigates both the long-term and short-term price elasticities of water demand in the residential apartments in Auckland central city. Using 6 years of monthly time series data, the price elasticities were estimated through cointegration and error correction methods. The results showed that the price elasticities of water demand were ?0.14 and ?0.12 in the short term and the long term, respectively. The price is inelastic yet negative and statistically significant, thus it can play a role in demand management.     

Estimation of resource utilisation difference between lithium and valproate treatment groups from the VALID study

Abstract

Objective:

To assess the difference in resource utilisation between lithium and valproate treatment groups from the VALID study.

Methods:

A modelled economic study was conducted as an appendage to the VALID study, an international, randomised, open-label, parallel-group, 12-week, equivalence study in patients with bipolar I disorder experiencing a manic/mixed episode, compared the efficacy and safety of valproate against that of lithium. The difference in health resource utilisation between the treatment groups was analysed based on information collected from a standardised questionnaire.

Results:

Efficacy and tolerability of valproate and lithium were shown to be comparable in the management of bipolar disorder in the VALID study. Cost analysis was based on information for 138 (35.5% male, mean age: 37.73 years) and 131 (45.8% male, mean age: 38.98 years) patients from lithium and valproate treatment groups, respectively. The groups differed in the number of hospital visits (503 vs. 421), outpatient visits (15 vs. 2), and number of work days lost (907 vs. 514.5) due to bipolar disorder. All differences were in favour of the valproate treatment group. In the modelled analysis and subsequent sensitivity analyses, the total cost saving was calculated to be US$199,322 (range: US$37,629–$226,903). This would translate into a cost saving of US$1444 per patient, or a cost saving of US$6278 per patient per year (range: US$1185–$7145 per patient per year).

Limitations:

The present study suffers from the limitations inherent in any economic evaluation that uses data from multicentre clinical trials with potential variations in treatment provision as well as the theoretical bias from an open-label study design. The study sample size had also limited statistical power to detect moderate differences in total medical costs, given the large variances often observed on cost variables.

Conclusions:

The use of valproate over lithium is likely to result in substantial cost savings to the healthcare system and reduce the financial burden to patients.     

The importance of social learning and culture for sustainable water management

Currently water resources management is undergoing a major paradigm shift. Water resources management has a strong engineering tradition based on controlling environmental problems with technical solutions. The management of risks relied on the ability to predict extremes and limit their impact with technical means such as dikes, dams and reservoirs. In this paradigm, belief systems, human attitudes and collective behaviours are perceived as external boundary conditions and not as integral part of management. However, the situation has started to change dramatically. Over the past years, integrated water resources management has become the reigning paradigm. The importance of governance and cultural adaptation has become a major issue of concern. At the same time, there is a paucity of adequate scientific concepts that would allow addressing these issues. This paper introduces a concept for social learning developed in the European project HarmoniCOP and discusses its implications for the cultural and institutional context of water resources management. It aims to contribute to the new paradigm of integrated resource management by discussing the importance of processes of culture and social learning for environmental resources management, in general, and water resources management, in particular.     

Complementarity between water pricing, water rights and local water governance: A Bayesian analysis of choice behaviour of farmers in the Krishna river basin, India

To ensure efficient water allocation and use, policy designers have adopted various strategies, including price setting, decentralising irrigation water management or improving water rights. Most of these strategies have been applied individually, without considering the complementary relationships between them. This paper uses a discrete choice model to analyse the scope for combinations of tools for irrigation water demand management and farmers' acceptance of these. In terms of local irrigation water governance, the presence or absence of collective irrigation water management, in the form of a Water Users Association, is considered. Water rights are specified in terms of the duration and quality of the entitlement and its transferability. Finally, four types of water pricing methods (area, crop, block and volumetric pricing) are considered. Using a choice experiment, we elicit the most preferred water pricing method, under different water rights situations, at different price levels and under various contexts for local irrigation water governance. Our results indicated that under conditions of improved water rights, preference for volumetric pricing increases, whilst the presence of a Water Users Association reduces this preference. Furthermore, it was found that using an appropriate combination of water demand management tools considerably increases the willingness to pay for a change in scenario.