USING A CGE MODEL TO IDENTIFY THE POLICY TRADE-OFF BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION. THE EFFICIENT PHILLIPS CURVE

This paper provides a new reading of a classical economic relation: the short-run Phillips curve. Our point is that, when dealing with inflation and unemployment, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decision-making problem. Hence, we use so-called multiobjective programming in connection with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to determine the combinations of policy instruments that provide efficient combinations of inflation and unemployment. This approach results in an alternative version of the Phillips curve labelled as efficient Phillips curve. Our aim is to present an application of CGE models to a new area of research that can be especially useful when addressing policy exercises with real data. We apply our methodological proposal within a particular regional economy, Andalusia, in the south of Spain. This tool can give some keys for policy advice and policy implementation in the fight against unemployment and inflation.     

An Application of an Integrated Transport Network– Multiregional CGE Model: a Framework for the Economic Analysis of Highway Projects

This paper develops a framework for the economic analysis of highway projects that is then used to estimate the dynamic economic effects of a highway project on the economic growth and the regional disparity in Korea. The framework is composed of a transport model and a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The transport model measures a change in interregional shortest distances and the accessibility due to the highway project. The CGE model estimates the spatial economic effects of the project on GDP, the price, exports, and the regional distribution of wages and population. The simulation allows policy makers to determine which highway development deserves the priority for investment, based on consideration of economic growth and regional economic equity in the long run. The simulation found that all the highway projects have positive effects on GDP and export growth as well as regional equity in terms of wage and population.     

Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty on growth performance of Pakistan through developing a small macroeconomic model. The GARCH method has been used for construction of economic uncertainty variables related to macroeconomic policies. The structural outcomes clearly indicate that economic policy uncertainty affects negatively on real and nominal sectors of Pakistan. The forecasting of model and different policy uncertainty simulation shocks also indicated that an adjustment in economic policies due to change of policy objectives create uncertain environment in country, which not only deteriorates the investment climate of country, it also affects the economic growth. Our study concludes that economic uncertainty not only reduces the current investment and economic growth, it also affects the future decision of investment and economic growth. This study suggests that sustainable and steady economic policies always reduce economic uncertainty and promote the confidence of economic agents, which help in achieving the targets of investment, trade and economic growth. Our study also maintains the predictability and reliability of government policies for the accomplishment of macroeconomic goals and economic development of country.     

Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

We use a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of inflation and output growth to examine the causality relationship among nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. The application of the constant conditional correlation GARCH(1,1) model leads to a number of interesting conclusions. First, inflation does cause negative welfare effects, both directly and indirectly, i.e. via the inflation uncertainty channel. Secondly, in some countries, more inflation uncertainty provides an incentive to Central Banks to surprise the public by raising inflation unexpectedly. Thirdly, in contrast to the assumptions of some macroeconomic models, business cycle variability and the rate of economic growth are related. More variability in the business cycle leads to more output growth.     

Nicaragua: structural adjustment policy analysis in the nineties

Three of the most relevant aspects of structural adjustment are presented in this paper: exchange policies, tariff policies, and fiscal policies. They are evaluated with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The model is used first to assess the exchange rate as the most relevant macroeconomic variable both for inflation control and for the promotion of exports. Secondly, the CGE considers how trade liberalization sustained on Ricardian principles of comparative advantages within a framework of trade integration agreements. Finally, the CGE analyzes public expenditure contraction as a central element in the new role the state has in the economy. The model is based on a Social Accounting Matrix built for 1991, a key year for these transformations.     

Transitions in thinking: changing the mindsets of policy makers about innovation

This article addresses the often overlooked S&T policy makers in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies and the challenges they face in transition. While still coming to grips with patterns and processes innovation under market conditions, policy makers are under pressure to resolve financial and organisational crises and to secure budgetary support. In this paper, we demonstrate how the socialist model of innovation is still shaping innovation policies in the CEE in general and with examples from individual countries. We outline three reasons for the persistence of the model: (1) that the model is embedded in these societies; (2) that the policy tools and targets associated with model remain unchallenged; and (3) that vested interests amongst policy makers and researchers encourage a continuation in policy focus. Finally, we consider how the persistence of the model may harm the long-term economic performance of the CEE and what can be done to change the mental models that underlie innovation policy making.     

OECD Efforts to Address the Measurement and Policy Challenges Posed by the Information Society

The OECD has acted as a forum for the discussion of policies regarding the information society for over 20-years, producing guidelines and recommendations in areas such as privacy of personal information, computer security, cryptography, regulatory reform of communications, and most recently on-line consumer protection and the taxation of e-commerce. By and large, this work was undertaken without the benefit of statistical measures. But the economic performance of a number of OECD Member countries during the 1990s underscores that the policy challenges being posed by the information society are increasingly economic in nature—how ICT is affecting productivity, growth rates, inflation, labour markets etc.—necessitating the need for statistically rigorous data. This paper outlines how recent efforts by national statistical offices to improve this situation have allowed researchers to gain new insight into the economic impact associated with ICTs and applications like e-commerce, leading to a number of policy recommendations as to how best to exploit the economic potential of these technologies. The paper ends by outlining important policy issues that require new statistical efforts.     

危机后发达国家的非传统货币政策研究

次贷危机爆发以后,各国纷纷实行非传统的货币政策来刺激经济。自2009年下半年以来,随着一些国家的经济状况开始恢复,人们开始担心通货膨胀的出现,因此研究非传统货币政策何时退出就成为当前各国宏观经济保持稳定的一个重要任务。发达国家实行非传统货币政策的原因在于传统的货币政策传导机制,即从市场基准利率向短期利率和长期利率的传导受阻。因此非传统货币政策实施的目的在于降低短期利率预期和风险溢价,同时提高通胀预期,降低长期实际利率,最终起到刺激实体经济的作用。文章以美国为例,考察了美国金融指标、通胀指标和宏观经济指标,得出结论:传统的货币政策传导机制的恢复还未得到充分的确认。另外,由于欧洲债务危机的出现给全球经济复苏蒙上阴影,因此全面退出非传统货币政策尚不具备条件。但是在全球化时代,寻求大国之间退出策略的合作和协调是十分必要的。     

Derivatives market and economic growth nexus: Policy implications for emerging markets

The derivatives market plays a crucial role in an economy. However, its link to economic growth and macroeconomic factors seem to be insufficiently covered in academic research despite the publication of many empirical studies on the causality of finance and growth. Recently, many emerging markets, such as Vietnam, have decided to establish a derivatives markets for risk management to ensure stability in the economy. This paper investigates the dynamic relationship among these key variables using up-to-date panel data on 17 countries, for which required data are available until 2017. This study yields various findings. First, bidirectional Granger causality between derivatives markets and economic growth exists internationally. Second, using panel vector autoregression, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition techniques as well as panel econometrics estimations, we find that trade openness and government spending have more effects on the derivatives market than economic growth and inflation. Third, we document that the derivatives market has a more integrated direct relationship with economic growth and macroeconomic factors in high-income countries than their upper-middle-income counterparts. These new findings are essential for consideration by policy makers in emerging markets in relation to the development of their derivatives markets.     

Assumptions–Central Forecast

We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments rather than assuming 'unchanged' policies. In the central forecast we assume that the broad thrust of policy is unchanged, i.e. we have made the technical assumption that the present government is returned in the next General Election. But, because an election must be held within the next 15 months, we also consider the medium-term prospects under alternative economic policies. (For details see p. 19.) In the central forecast. e herefore. we assume that policy will continue to be guided-though not completely determined-by an extended Medium- Term Financial Strategy (MTFS). For 1983-4 the MTFS requires the PSBR to be 23/4% per cent of GDP at market prices. Given official inflation and output forecasts, the Chancellor is therefore aiming for a 1983-4 PSBR of £8bn (Autumn Statement, p. 13). In the central forecast. however, we have assumed that the Budget of 15 March will give greater weight to the political objectives of cutting income tax and maintaining the attack on inflation, even if this implies slippage from the MTFS targets. Specifcally we have assumed that the standard rate of income tax will be cut by lp. that personal tax allowances will be raised by 12 per cent and that indirect taxes will be raised by only half the amount required for full revalorisation. This amounts to a total tax giveaway (compared with unchangedpolicy) of £1 1/2 and results in a PSBR of just over £9bn. 3.1 per cent of GDPat market prices.     

Honduras: application of a CGE model

This paper constructs a social accounting matrix for Honduras to serve as a database for the computable general equilibrium (or CGE) model adapted to the characteristics of the Honduran economy. A number of simulations of economic policy modifications were carried out to quantify their possible impact on Honduran economy. This paper first considers the general characteristics of the Honduran economy and the main policy reforms put into effect these last few years. CGE model characteristics for Honduras are briefly presented, and the Honduran SAM for 1991 is described. Several simulations were run to assess the impact of selected policy changes. Results show that, in general, structural modification policies used to redirect the Honduran economy outwards (trade liberalization and devaluation of the lempira) favor agriculture, not only in terms of its domestic production but also concerning income distribution. The results are consistent with the ones proposed in the literature on economic development that maintains that interventionist policies linked to the import substitution model that were in fashion until the eighties were anti-agrarian. On the other hand, a reduction in public expenditure promotes less the Honduran rural sector, though it does not stop doing so. However, results also point to the fact that there are underlying problems in carrying out these liberalization measures. The clearest case is free trade, since compensating the drastic reductions to state income that are brought by the reduction or elimination of tariffs is no easy task.     

Economic development and resource degradation: Conflicts and policies

The paper develops a model that shares common features with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. It is used to address two questions. First, what are the future prospects of a green gross domestic product (GDP); should we be concerned with resource degradation or not; and, to what extent, and under which conditions? Secondly, which policies are more effective than others? Model closures are simulated using different specifications of exogenous variables. Further, alternative policies are treated: human capital, price incentives, property rights and poverty reduction. In the African context, we show that while the prospects of environment-friendly economic development, i.e. a rising green GDP, are weak in the medium-run, under certain structural conditions there is a range of effective policies that resolves the conflict between economic growth and resource degradation, thus contributing to a rising green GDP.     

Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate*

This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework, using a Lagrange multiplier procedure with a standard null‐limit distribution. The empirical results suggest that the US unemployment rate can be specified in terms of a fractionally integrated process, which interacts with some nonlinear functions of labour‐demand variables such as real oil prices and real interest rates. We also find evidence of a long‐memory component. Our results are consistent with a hysteresis model with path dependency rather than a non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model with an underlying unemployment equilibrium rate, thereby giving support to more activist stabilization policies. However, any suitable model should also include business cycle asymmetries, with implications for both forecasting and policy‐making.     

GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and non-EMU members (Norway, Sweden and the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q3. For each country, we extract the long run trend and the cyclical component of real economic activity, while the corresponding ECB euro area government benchmark bond interest rates of long and short term maturities are used for the calculation of the yield spreads. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables: the respective unemployment rates and stock indices. The methodology employed in the effort to forecast real output, is a probit model of the inverse cumulative distribution function of the standard distribution, using several formal forecasting and goodness of fit evaluation criteria. The results show that the yield curve augmented with the non-monetary variables has significant forecasting power in terms of real economic activity but the results differ qualitatively between the individual economies examined raising non-trivial policy implications.     

Out-of-sample forecasts of China's economic growth and inflation using rolling weighted least squares

Macroeconomic forecasting in China is essential for the government to take proper policy decisions on government expenditure and money supply, among other matters. The existing literature on forecasting Chinas macroeconomic variables is unclear on the crucial issue of how to choose an optimal window to estimate parameters with rolling out-of-sample forecasts. This study fills this gap in forecasting economic growth and inflation in China, by using the rolling weighted least squares (WLS) with the practically feasible cross-validation (CV) procedure of Hong et al. (2018) to choose an optimal estimation window. We undertake an empirical analysis of monthly data on up to 30 candidate indicators (mainly asset prices) for a span of 17 years (2000–2017). It is documented that the forecasting performance of rolling estimation is sensitive to the selection of rolling windows. The empirical analysis shows that the rolling WLS with the CV-based rolling window outperforms other rolling methods on univariate regressions in most cases. One possible explanation for this is that these macroeconomic variables often suffer from structural changes due to changes in institutional reforms, policies, crises, and other factors. Furthermore, we find that, in most cases, asset prices are key variables for forecasting macroeconomic variables, especially output growth rate.     

Forecasting CPI inflation components with Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Networks

We present a hierarchical architecture based on recurrent neural networks for predicting disaggregated inflation components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the majority of existing research is focused on predicting headline inflation, many economic and financial institutions are interested in its partial disaggregated components. To this end, we developed the novel Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (HRNN) model, which utilizes information from higher levels in the CPI hierarchy to improve predictions at the more volatile lower levels. Based on a large dataset from the US CPI-U index, our evaluations indicate that the HRNN model significantly outperforms a vast array of well-known inflation prediction baselines. Our methodology and results provide additional forecasting measures and possibilities to policy and market makers on sectoral and component-specific price changes.     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

The current economic outlook is dominated by fears of continued industrial unrest and uncertainty regarding wage increases. The key issues for output and expenditure will be the outcome of the almost inevitable conflict between the monetary objectives and wage inflation. The most recent indicators provide some evidence of the type of problems the economy will face during 1979. The figures for industrial output and consumption suggest that, by end of 1978, the growth of output was slowing down and the figures for wholesale and retail prices suggest that inflation was picking up. Adherence to the monetary targets is already, on a short-term basis, requiring little or no growth in the real money supply and accompanying high interest rates. The latest official longer-term indicators also point to a slowdown in domestic demand.
Inflation would probably have increased by now had it not been for the recent tight monetary policy and the resulting stability of the exchange rate. We have earlier argued that earnings increases of about 12% will be consistent with the current financial background. But earnings increases of 15% or more will put extreme pressure on the company sector and would bring into sharp focus the choice between finanacing wage increases and letting the exchange rate fall with resulting higher inflation rates: or holding the monetary targets and accepting the short-term consequences for output and unemployment.     

Tightening the Fiscal and Monetary Controls

The Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) is a new departure in post-war policy-making. As David Smith's Briefing Paper shows the ideas behind it are well rooted in historical experience, but nevertheless it was inevitable that there would be a major element of trial and error in the early years of its use. The experience of 1980-81 however has produced some alarming results. The monetary limits have been drastically exceeded and the PSBR is likely to be far above the original target. There are two possible explanations. Either the control system is gravely defective or the government has deliberately followed the kind of short-term discretionary policies (and has indulged in the kind of ad hoc interventionism) which the strategy was expressly designed to avoid. We believe that both explanations are true. It is also probable that they reinforced each other. The first year of the strategy was likely to be the year of greatest strain. It involved a highly ambitious attempt to reduce inflation at a time when cost pressures from wages and higher energy prices were particularly strong. The strains rapidly revealed the defects in the control system. Since the government was alarmed at the short-term consequences of its policies, it chose to make a virtue of necessity and in effect suspended its commitment to the control of sterling M3. It is possible to look back at 1980 and to say that, in the event, the government's loss of control over its policies was justified as statesmanlike flexibility. But there always appear to be good reasons for sacrificing long-term objectives for short-term expediency. The MTFS was intended to avoid the chronic tendency to accept the easy option. It is essential that in 1981 the commitment to the MTFS should be re-established and that it should be reinforced, as appears to be necessary, by a system of indicators and controls to ensure that the errors of 1980 are not repeated. Otherwise there is a serious risk that the hard-won gains in the fight against inflation will be lost in the economic upturn. In the first part of this Viewpoint we examine what happened to fiscal and monetary policy in 1980 and discuss the general lines that policy should follow in 1981-82. We conclude that in order to get fiscal policy back on course the authorities should aim for a PSBR of £10 bn in 1981-82. In the second part we discuss in more detail the reasons why monetary policy went so badly astray in 1980, focusing particularly on the role of the Bank of England. We argue that just as ‘dirty floating’ (i.e. the pursuit of exchange rate objectives) may threaten the monetary targets, so ‘dirty monetarism’ (i.e. the pursuit of interest rate objectives) may prove an even greater threat. We conclude that the discretionary activities of the Bank of England contributed to the excessive monetary growth in 1980, and that it is necessary to ensure that in future the Bank should conduct its policy on a non-discretionary basis.     

Modelling the inflation process in transition economies: Empirical comparison of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic

This paper starts from the observation that inflation in transition economies appears to be persistently high and volatile and attempts to provide some empirical characterisation of the inflation process in three such transition economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. We first consider the role of monetary growth as a major causal factor for inflation in these economies, and argue that the evidence provides rather weak support for the causal relationship. We then propose a transition economy cost-plus model and estimate this using the equilibrium-correction modelling (ECM) strategy augmented by introduction of a number of transitory factors and changes in the internal structure of the real economy which we believe may have had a significant impact on inflation in these economies. We show that this approach enables us to account for long-run inflation in these economies from the early 1980s to the present despite the turbulence of the latter part of the sample period. Our results support wage and exchange rate based inflation policies.