资产减值与盈余管理——基于长期资产减值转回的实证研究

2006年2月15日《企业会计准则第8号：资产减值》的颁布，作为我国会计准则与国际会计准则的实质性差异之一，长期资产减值能否转回问题又成为人们瞩目的焦点。本文试图利用实证研究论证我国上市公司确实有利于资产减值转回（尤其是长期资产减值转回）进行盈余管理的行为，旨在为《资产减值》准则的制定与实施提供一些经验数据。同时重点关注上市公司2006年对于以前年度计提的长期资产减值准备的处理方式，以观测新准则的发布和实施对于上市公司的影响程度，以及是否的确出现了部分学者预言的“最后的疯狂”——上市公司资产减值转回的“赶集”现象。     

Reframing long-term controversies in transboundary river management. The intermediate role of puzzling and powering in tackling wicked problems

In this paper we analyze how the process of visioning about ‘wicked’ long-term policy issues developed as a result of co-evolving processes of “framing”, “puzzling” and “powering”. In this article we discuss a case of cross-border joint visioning on multi-purpose land use planning in a multi-stakeholder process on the transboundary river Scheldt, whose estuary is shared by the Netherlands and Belgium, in which three different rounds can be distinguished, showing a different logic to organizing the processes of framing, puzzling and powering when the focus on the long term diminishes. This analysis helps us move beyond an often naïve perspective of beyond multi-stakeholder processes. We conclude that productive interaction between framing, puzzling and powering is more easily realized in situations of drafting a long-term vision, compared to situations in which long-term visions have to be translated in shorter-run implementation projects.     

Market Dependence and Economic Events

Recent studies on stock market pricing have rejected the random walk model for short-term periods and have concentrated on long-term persistent or mean-reverting dependence. The problem with these studies is that their statistical results can be biased by the shorter term dependence. Rather than trying to develop a unified theory that explains both short- and long-term dependence, current studies use different methodologies to correct for the short-term dependence while trying to test for long-term dependence. This paper uses a sequential information theory to focus attention on short-term dependence effects. This theory states that the market process is a nonstationary mean process surrounded by a nonstationary autocovariance error process. A nonstationary mean process implies short-term dependence resulting from changing economic events (new information). Long-term persistent dependence then derives from nonperiodic economic cycles. A new empirical approach, a cross-sectional autocorrelation coefficient is used since it is free from the stationarity problems of previous techniques.     

The determinants of positive long-term performance in strategic mergers: Corporate focus and cash

Using a sample selection and benchmarking methodology designed to more accurately assess merger-related changes in corporate focus, we find a significantly positive relationship between corporate focus and long-term merger performance. Focus-decreasing (FD) mergers result in significantly negative long-term performance with an average 18% loss in stockholder wealth, 9% loss in firm value, and significant declines in operating cash flows three years after merger. Mergers that either preserve or increase focus (FPI) result in marginal improvements in long-term performance. These results are consistent with many corporate focus studies, suggesting that merger studies finding opposite results are the result of measurement error.A positive relationship between changes in focus and long-term performance continues to hold after controlling for other variables. A continuous measure of focus change indicates that the extent of focus changes is significant. Every 10% reduction in focus results in a 9% loss in stockholder wealth, a 4% discount in firm value, and a more than 1% decline in operating performance. Cash-financed FPI mergers exhibit the best, and stock-financed FD mergers the worst, long-term performance. Tests of subsample time periods show that the focus change measure is significant in both time periods, indicating that the extent of corporate focus changes is the more important measure of corporate focus or diversification.     

The capital budgeting process and the energy trilemma - A strategic conduct analysis

This paper examines capital budgeting and its role in the ‘energy trilemma’. The key focus is on the role of knowledgeable agency in the analysis of strategic conduct. In particular, this study demonstrates how accounting tools can be used by executive managers, who, whilst dominant in their own organisations, are themselves subordinate to government in the United Kingdom and at the European level. The strategic conduct of actors is examined in a narrative, theorised case study setting spanning an 11-year period from 2006 to 2017. The principal contribution to knowledge from this study is the extent to which strategic investment accounting has played a role in changing regulatory and government policy in a privatised industry. Government and regulators were forced to take the generators' concerns seriously, because the generators (based on knowledge derived from capital budgets) restricted their capital expenditure rather than mobilising their resources. The generators highlighted that not only was this a problem of environmental sustainability and price for consumers, but also one of long-term supply. They argued that the government had to address all aspects of the trilemma when creating policy.     

经济增长、能源转型与CO2排放的长期均衡——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

采用线性面板计量方法,依据2000~2014年中国30个省区CO2排放因子数据,考量经济增长、能源转型与CO2排放的长期均衡关系.结果表明:工业经济部门能源消费是导致CO2排放增加的重要因素;能源强度与CO2排放之间存在显著相关性与长期均衡性,能源强度降低1%,CO2排放量将减少0.22%;可再生能源替代化石能源对CO2排放具有长期抑制作用,可再生能源占比每增加1%,CO2排放量将减少0.48%.鉴此,应转变经济增长方式,实现能源转型战略,包括提高能源效率、可再生能源替代等政策建议.     

金融系统期限转换与我国中长期融资优化

中长期资金有助于促进资本积累,对于经济增长具有重要意义。与发达国家相比,我国中长期资金供给不足、渠道单一、配置低效等问题均较为突出。金融结构论者将原因归结为我国银行体系一家独大、直接融资市场发展滞后,解释力可能稍显不足。鉴此,本文站在金融功能论的视角,淡化直接、间接融资渠道的概念,抽象出金融系统通过期限转换供给中长期资金的一般原理,即通过市场化或政府主导的方式,为资金供给方提供安全补偿、流动性补偿、外生风险补偿、盈利补偿,是金融系统实现和促进期限转换的必要条件。国际对比的结果也表明,我国金融市场不发达和银行中长期资金投放不足的深层次原因是上述补偿机制有待进一步完善。据此,本文认为,优化我国中长期融资应充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,更好发挥政府作用,集中精力优化上述补偿机制,强化金融系统的期限转换功能,稳步增加中长期资金供给,着力提高中长期资金配置效率。     

内蒙古财经大学发展能源经济专业分析

能源经济学产生于20世纪70年代,近年来,伴随着国际市场上能源价格的波动,以及由此带来的对各国经济的冲击,能源问题再次成为全世界瞩目的焦点。从能源发展趋势、学科发展需求、人才培养趋向、促进地方进步、优化专业结构等方面来看,有必要在内蒙古财经大学发展能源经济专业,并且内蒙古财经大学为发展能源经济专业准备了充分条件。因此,发展能源经济专业,在内蒙古能源经济发展的大背景下,既有广阔的就业前景又有助于为教学科研提供丰富的研究内容。     

Back to the future: The dream of a perpetuum mobile in the atomic society and the hydrogen economy

This article analyses a certain kind of society in which it is proclaimed that abundant energy can be used without any negative side effects. In such “utopias”, individual needs are described as unrestricted, and economic and technological change is said to be unlimited - as if the society were to have a perpetuum mobile at its command. The two examples connected with such expectations are “the atomic/nuclear society” and “the hydrogen economy”. Although these two utopias do differ, their many similarities are the focus of this article. They are similar in that they both invoke the dream of controlling a virtual perpetuum mobile, propose an expert/lay knowledge gap, downplay any risks involved, and rely on a public relations campaign to ensure the public’s collaboration with companies and politicians. I thus connect these two different utopias, discussing them as a part of the modern history of energy production and consumption. Making this connection clarifies some lessons for future energy planning, such as the need for reflection on and critical engagement with utopias, awareness of how a more participatory democratic process may be secured regarding energy issues, and the negative consequences if risk is described in solely economic terms.     

Different open book accounting practices for different purchasing strategies

Extant studies of open book accounting focus primarily on data disclosure in long-term, committed purchasing arrangements. We extend research beyond that context by exploring the association between open book practices (in terms of nature and uses of disclosed data as well as conditions of data disclosure) and two different purchasing strategies. Three case studies are performed. Results indicate that within market procurement characterized by a transactional purchasing strategy, cost data primarily serve to reduce purchase price. Therefore, data disclosure is limited in scope and scale, occurs primarily during supplier evaluation and selection, and is characterized by an adversarial atmosphere. Incentives for suppliers to open their books focus on short-term tangible gains. Within a hybrid exchange arrangement characterized by a relational purchasing strategy, data disclosure supports cost reduction, e.g., through joint product development, and is more comprehensive. The atmosphere is less adversarial and suppliers reap long-term benefits.     

新能源汽车财务与非财务消息对股市影响的多维特征及差异

新能源汽车股市是投资者对公司财务绩效、政策导向、技术水平和发展前景等多方面因素综合反应的结果。将新能源汽车产业相关消息分为"财务"和"非财务"消息,应用事件研究法从"敏感性""、强弱性"和"持续性"三个维度分析了财务与非财务类消息对于新能源汽车股市影响的差异性。结果表明,新能源汽车非财务类消息对于股市表现影响的强度和持续性相对更显著。新能源汽车非财务类消息中的政策、市场消息对于股市表现影响的敏感性要高于技术消息,政策、技术消息对于股市表现影响的强度明显高于市场消息,技术消息对于股市表现影响的持续性明显优于政策和市场类消息。新能源汽车产业的政策扶持不应仅仅关注现阶段新能源汽车制造商的财务指标,更应高度关注新能源汽车制造商的创新能力。制造商要进一步加大新能源汽车的研发投入,通过资本市场的合理融资促进新能源汽车技术创新和长期盈利能力提升。     

Capturing the real value in high-tech acquisitions

Eager to stay ahead of fast-changing markets, more and more high-tech companies are going outside for competitive advantage. Last year in the United States alone, there were 5,000 high-tech acquisitions, but many of them yielded disappointing results. The reason, the authors contend, is that most managers have a shortsighted view of strategic acquisitions--they focus on the specific products or market share. That focus might make sense in some industries, where those assets can confer substantial advantages, but in high tech, full-fledged technological capabilities--tied to skilled people--are the key to long-term success. Instead of simply following the "buzz," successful acquires systematically assess their own capability needs. They create product road maps to identify holes in their product line. While the business group determines if it can do the work in-house, the business development office scouts for opportunities to buy it. Once business development locates a candidate, it conducts an expanded due diligence, which goes beyond strategic, financial, and legal checks. Successful acquires are focused on long-term capabilities, so they make sure that the target's products reflect a real expertise. They also look to see if key people would be comfortable in the new environment and if they have incentives to stay on board. The final stage of a successful acquisition focuses on retaining the new people--making sure their transition goes smoothly and their energies stay focused. Acquisitions can cause great uncertainty, and skilled people can always go elsewhere. In short, the authors argue, high-tech acquisitions need a new orientation around people, not products.     

Some future scenarios for renewable energy

Energy security issues, climate change, fossil fuel depletion, new technologies, and environmentally conscious consumers are powerful forces shaping the renewable energy sector. The future of renewable energy depends upon how powerful these forces are and which combination of forces prevails. This paper defines and analyzes four different scenarios, business as usual (2010–2030), focus on climate change (2010–2060), focus on energy security (2010–2030), and a clean and secure energy future (2010–2100) for the future of renewable energy. A clean and secure energy future, where renewable energy accounts for between 50% and 80% of total energy demand, is the most favorable scenario for the future of renewable energy but also the scenario that takes the greatest amount of commitment, in terms of time and money from businesses, individuals, governments, and policy makers.     

Issuance Decisions and Strategic Focus: The Case of Long-Term Care Insurance

Increasing costs of long-term care are placing ever greater burdens on state and federal budgets, yet private long-term care insurance remains a relatively minor financing vehicle. Although many researchers provide rationales for the limited private market, some life–health insurers have forged ahead into this relatively new and risky line of business. We investigate what makes these insurers different and whether managers are following a diversification or strategic focus strategy. We find that strategic focus is a consistently important factor and that managers' participation and volume decisions are made independently.     

Interest rate variability,government securities dealers,and the stability of financial markets

Monetarists argue that monetary policy should focus on controlling monetary growth rather than interest rates. Arguments to smooth rates at the expense of stabilizing monetary growth frequently emphasize the adverse effects of rate variability on financial markets. Assuming that financial market performance can be correctly inferred from dealer positions and spreads, this paper estimates the parameters of a model that allows for both short- and long-term effects of rate variability on dealer positions and spreads. Estimates of variability effects on government securities dealer positions and spreads provide little support for limiting variability to maintain or improve market performance because most of the adverse effects of variability are temporary.     

The effect of quarterly earnings guidance on share values in corporate acquisitions

We investigate whether quarterly earnings guidance by corporate takeover targets is associated with acquisition premiums. Regulators have expressed recurring concerns that quarterly guidance is associated with a misallocation of resources because it encourages management to focus on excessively short-term horizons. If so, firms providing quarterly guidance represent an acquisition opportunity for non-guiding firms because acquired resources can be redeployed towards more productive long-term uses. Based on prior research that finds value created by acquisitions accrues primarily to target shareholders, we predict that an expected increase in value from the termination of guidance will be observed in acquisition premiums. We find that, after controlling for the other determinants of acquisition gains, the premium paid for an acquired corporation is associated with the target's practice of issuing quarterly earnings guidance. Consistent with our prediction, we find that no incremental premium is paid to acquire guiding targets when the bidding firm also provides guidance.     

Time-varying risk and return in the bond market: a test of a new equilibrium pricing model

This article uses bond market data to empirically test the assetpricing model of Kazemi (1992). According to this model therate of return on a long-term, pure-discount, default-free bondwill be perfectly correlated with changes in the marginal utilityof the representative investor. The covariability between financialasset returns and returns on such a bond can therefore serveas a measure of the riskiness of assets. The aim of this studyis to determine whether the model can explain cross-sectionaldifferences in the monthly returns of bonds with different maturitydates. We estimate and test the restrictions imposed by themodel on returns of default-free bonds, while allowing the conditionaldistribution of bond returns to be time varying. The model isrejected during the full sample period (1973-1995) and the subperiod(1973-1980) when the Federal Reserve's focus is on interestrates, while the model is not rejected during the subperiod(1981-1995) when the Federal Reserve's focus is on money supply.     

我国上市公司股权激励实施效果的研究

目前股权激励在国内越来越受到重视,作为一种长期激励制度安排,股权激励的作用最终要落实到公司业绩增长上。本文通过对剔除行业影响后的上市公司高管人员股权激励效应进行实证研究,指出目前我国上市公司高管人员股权激励的长期效应不明显;从行业角度看,交通运输行业的上市公司股权激励效果最好。     

Global trends in real risk free rates

We examine real returns to government debt of the G7 countries, for both short and long maturities. Our focus is on returns to fixed income investing rather than contemporaneous yields. We find evidence that investments in the same maturity across countries may be modeled as a cointegrated process, in a vector error correction framework, with common trends separated into their permanent and transitory components for the system. Our findings are based on analysis of both short-term maturities and long-term maturities. However, the structure varies excessively across maturities and time frames, with recent data showing less integration.     

Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing

The economic impact from quantitative easing (QE) may be much less than assumed by the Federal Reserve. One focus is on the effectiveness of QE to stabilize a failing banking system, and the judgment here is largely positive. A second focus, especially in the US, is on evaluating subsequent rounds of QE that were implemented after the economy had resumed growth and after the banking sector had recapitalized and returned to profitability. For these subsequent rounds of QE, the reviews are decidedly mixed and heavily dependent on the assumptions embedded in the economic models used by the researchers. Researchers willing to assume that the US is a closed domestic economy tend to find a large impact on long-term interest rates from QE. If the US is part of a highly integrated global economy, a smaller effect is presumed. Then there is the more important and controversial evaluation of whether there is any impact on real GDP growth and job creation from QE once the economy is growing again, even if unemployment rates remain historically elevated. What one chooses to ignore or assume does not exist can be more important to the conclusions of QE evaluations than may meet the eye. Inappropriate assumptions can lead to poor decisions.