Estimating the COVID-19 cash crunch: Global evidence and policy

In this paper, we investigate how the COVID-19 health crisis could affect the liquidity of listed firms across 26 countries. We stress-test three liquidity ratios for each firm with full and partial operating flexibility in two simulated distress scenarios corresponding to drops in sales of 50% and 75%, respectively. In the most adverse scenario, the average firm with partial operating flexibility would exhaust its cash holdings in about two years. At that point, its current liabilities would increase, on average, by eight times, suggesting that the average firm would have to resort to the debt market to prevent a liquidity crunch. Moreover, about 1/10th of all sample firms would become illiquid within six months. Finally, we study two different fiscal policies, tax deferrals and bridge loans, that governments could implement to mitigate the liquidity risk. Our analysis suggests bridge loans are more cost-effective to prevent a massive cash crunch.     

Reform of the regulations on marginal employment lacks cohesion

Conclusion If the federal government is concerned to avoid restricting labour market dynamics in the low-income segment, it should seek a solution that tears down the ‘wall’ represented by the ceiling on marginal employment. This is not achieved by the envisaged reform concept. In fact the way forward was set out in the new government’s coalition agreement. There the government’s intention is expressed to incorporate all forms of paid employment, i.e. including self-employed activities, into the social insurance system. This would tear down the wall consisting of a high marginal tax and contribution burden that still blocks the transition from marginal work to regular part-time employment. Yet this would also require the courage to abolish flat-rate taxation in favour of an extension of individual income taxation. It seems that such a reform—as is the case with a comprehensive concept for a re-regulation of the labour market and a reform of social security—cannot be implemented in the short run. Consequently, the reform of marginal employment should be placed on the agenda of the ‘Alliance for Jobs’: these tripartite talks between employers, unions and the government, that are to be chaired by the Chancellor personally, should serve not only to bring about a reduction in German unemployment in the short-term, but also to find new, sustainable regulations for the labour market and social security. One advantage, at least, of the proposed reform of marginal employment is that it is in fact so marginal that it will not constitute an obstacle to a more comprehensive reform.     

Confidentiality of student records: The professor's obligation

Recent Federal legislation has secured more firmly the rights of students to control the accumulation and dissemination of information about them. This situation would seem to compel professors to be more knowledgeable of student rights so as not to abuse them. This paper reviews the current status of student rights vis-a-vis their educational records and discusses a potential dilemma for the professor created by the legislation which established those rights. Knowledge of the law is particularly important to the accounting professor because his or her typically close liaison between the student and employment recruiter increases the risk of violation.     

Apply with Caution: Introducing UK‐Style In‐Work Support in Germany*

Estimates of the labour supply effects of recent UK reforms in the area of direct taxes and benefits show that policy can have significant influence on the level of employment. We confirm this in a simulation of an in‐work support system introduced into the German tax and benefit system. Our simulation results suggest that introducing in‐work tax credits in Germany would increase the employment of single individuals by over 105,000 but would result in a reduction of labour supply among individuals living in couples by about 70,000, among both women and men. The result found for men is especially important as it is markedly different from all results for the UK, where the net response among men has always been found to be positive. Our estimation results call for a high degree of caution as far as ‘importing’ UK‐style tax credits to Germany is concerned. In‐work support based on family income would reinforce the existing work disincentives for secondary earners, reducing the employment levels of both men and women living in couples.     

Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel

This paper analyzes the effect of terror on the economy. Terror endangers life such that the value of the future relative to the present is reduced. Hence, due to a rise in terror activity, investment goes down, and in the long run income and consumption go down as well. Governments can offset terror by putting tax revenues into the production of security. Facing a tide in terror, a government that acts optimally increases the proportion of output spent on defense, but does not fully offset the tide. Thus, when terror peaks the long run equilibrium with an optimizing government is of lower output and welfare. Next, we show that this theory of terror and the economy, helps to understand changes in trend and business cycle of the Israeli economy. The estimates show that terror has a large impact on the aggregate economy. Continued terror, at the level of the death toll by about the same size as due to car accidents, is expected to decrease annual consumption per capita by about 5% in 2004. Had Israel not suffered from terror during the last 3 years, we estimate that the output per capita would have been 10% higher than it is today.     

社会保险费的就业效应:综述与启示

社会保险费的经济归宿主要受到劳动力市场供求弹性、工资弹性和缴费-收益预期的影响。如果社会保险费不能完全转嫁给劳动者,将对就业产生不利的效应,而在二元劳动力市场特征明显的国家,还可能会带来显著的非正规就业问题。我国当前社会保险费的制度缺陷、最低工资标准的逐年提高和《社会保险法》的实施,可能存在严重的就业风险。     

On the employment effects of productivity shocks: The role of inventories, demand elasticity, and sticky prices

Whether technological progress raises or lowers employment in the short run has been the subject of much debate in the recent years. We show that cross-industry differences in inventory holding costs, demand elasticities, and price rigidities potentially all affect employment decisions in the face of productivity shocks. In particular, the employment response to a permanent productivity shock is more likely to be positive the less costly it is to hold inventories, the more elastic industry demand is, and the more flexible prices are. Using data on 458 4-digit U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1958-1996, we find statistically significant effects of variations in inventory holdings and demand elasticities on short-run employment responses, but less conclusive evidence pertaining to the effects of measured price stickiness.     

我国服务业的就业特征分析

我国服务业的就业特征是,总体上来看,就业人口总量及其占全社会就业人口的比重不断提高,但就业比重一直低于产值比重,结构偏离度为负值,这表明服务业存在一定的就业空间;从服务业内部的就业结构来看,传统服务业的就业空间越来越小,对劳动力素质要求较高的现代服务业则存在一定的发展空间.因此,我们应采取有效措施,优化服务业的就业结构,以充分发挥其就业主渠道的作用.     

Overtime reductions: Negligible employment effects

Summary Overtime hours were worked in Germany during the period 1990–1997 primarily by well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers. In addition, it is evident that overtime is increasingly being compensated by flexible leisure schedules. The scope for potential employment effects from a reduction of paid overtime is thus constantly decreasing and is much lower than the figures cited by unions in the current discussion. If the regulations to make working time more flexible being discussed in the “Alliance for Jobs’ were to be implemented, this would reinforce the observed trend towards compensation for overtime through leisure, further diminishing the potential employment effects. If the bargaining parties or the legislators would implement a reduction of overtime nonetheless, well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers in western Germany will suffer income losses.     

Monitoring technical change and employment

In October 1981 the UK Manpower Services Commission approached the Technology Policy Unit of the University of Aston with the idea of establishing a ‘technology monitor’ to research into the introduction of new technology and its implications on employment and skills. The monitor was to look at specific short-term changes (over five to ten years) in employment levels and patterns that would be of relevance to policy makers in the manpower field. The author, who has led this research, describes the setting up of the monitor, its major aims and possible future developments.     

Cognitive representations of the future: Survey results

This paper reports the results of a web-based survey concerning how people think about the future. Five hundred and seventy-two people from 24 countries completed the survey. The results indicate that when the respondents hear the word ‘future’, they think about a point in time 15 years into the future, on average, with a median response of 10 years. Respondents think less about the future than the present. On the other hand, they tend to worry more about the future than the present. Respondents’ ability to imagine the future goes ‘dark’ around 15-20 years into the future. Most of the respondents are optimistic about the near term, but become more pessimistic about the longer term. Respondents believe that humankind is not acting very responsibly with respect to a whole host of environmental and social issues but is acting responsibly with respect to technology. Almost half of the respondents would not wish to have been born in the future. Most of the other respondents would have preferred to have been born 50-500 years into the future. Approximately 45% of the sample believes that humankind will become extinct. The data suggest that Christians are more optimistic and less worried about the future and do not believe that we will become extinct. Males worry less but also think more about the future. There is a strong correlation between thinking about the future, clearly imagining the future, and being optimistic about the future. It is concluded that individuals have diverse and rich conceptions about the future but that they think less about the future than futurists might hope. Individuals’ considerations of the future are highly influenced by their identities and worldviews. Future research should focus on better unraveling these relationships and on understanding their implications for futures-oriented policy making.     

Quantifying the employment effects of micro-electronics

The paper attempts to quantify some of the compensatory effects on employment which may offset the direct displacement effects of faster technological change. It is argued that technological change will not necessarily increase unemployment levels. There are a number of compensating effects which may reduce and even outweigh any initial displacement effects. The study uses simulation techniques with a detailed model of the UK economy. One conclusion is that, even if the UK does not innovate as fast as its major competitors, a more rapid rate of diffusion of new technology may result in higher employment than would otherwise be the case.     

Household Level Economic Incentives, Unemployment Trap and Job Finding Probability

This paper considers the sensitivity of the household's disposable income with respect to the labour market states and the labour market transitions of unemployed workers. The paper analyses the following questions: (i) which are the determinants of starting wages? (ii) how many unemployed are in the unemployment trap? (iii) how do household level economic incentives affect the conditional probability of finding a job? The empirical analysis is based on individual panel data covering the years 1987–1993 in Finland, when the unemployment rate rose from about 4% to 18%. We have estimated the starting wage equation to calculate the effects of hypothetical re-employment on the household's disposable income and to evaluate the frequency of the unemployment trap. To analyse factors affecting the transition out of unemployment to employment in open labour market, we estimate unemployment duration using a semi-parametric proportional risk model. The paper shows that the impact of the economic incentives, measured by the hypothetical change in household disposable income, on employment is more important in the recession than in the boom.     

Financing the Gig Economy

Unlike traditional firm production, gig economy workers provide their own physical capital. As a consequence, the low-income households for whom gig economy opportunities are most valuable often borrow to participate. In the context of ride share, difference-in-difference analysis reveals increased vehicle purchases, borrowing, utilization, and employment around entry, but financially constrained individuals cannot participate. To assess the equilibrium importance of financing, I build and estimate a structural model of the gig economy. Access to finance proves critical for the gig economy's growth: without finance, equilibrium quantities would be 40% lower and prices 90% higher, and only higher-income households could participate as drivers.     

The Tobin tax proposal : Background, issues and prospects

Less exchange rate volatility facilitates trade, investment and employment, for which, however, substantial international policy collaboration is needed. Tobin's proposal for a small uniform tax on foreign exchange transactions would be an important step, reducing fiscal deficits while discouraging exchange speculation. The fear of hostile reaction from the globalized financial markets makes putting the proposal on the table a more delicate matter for individual governments than for the UN. Doing so would strengthen the UN's claim for a slice of the prospective revenue.     

On‐the‐Job Learning and News‐Driven Business Cycles

This paper proposes a new channel of on‐the‐job learning to explain the positive comovement between consumption and employment following good news about future productivity. The new recruits can generate an additional stream of output production in all future periods, and the firm's labor demand is thus characterized by the forward‐looking property. Therefore, the firm is motivated to hire more new recruits in advance in response to good news about future productivity. Once the increase in labor demand is greater than the decrease in labor supply caused by the income effect, the coincident rise in consumption and employment can be driven by the news shock. When such a channel is paired with investment adjustment costs and the endogenous capacity utilization rate, this paper provides a plausible explanation for simultaneous booms in current consumption, investment, output, and employment to match the empirical evidence under the news shock.     

New technology and banking employment in the EEC

Retail banking is traditionally highly labour-intensive and employment in the industry has been rising steadily for many years. However, new technology is now being introduced which is beginning to have an impact on levels of employment. In the European Economic Community it is likely that productivity will increase only slightly faster than demand up to 1990 and that employment will not fall substantially. After that date, it will almost certainly fall faster. Negotiations between management and unions, at a national and international level, should ensure that the introduction of new labour-saving technology be complemented by reductions in working time and the creation of more stimulating, labour-intensive positions.     

美国金融监管体系的重大变革——《美国金融监管体系现代化蓝图》评析

近日,美国财政部公布了《金融监管体系现代化蓝图》,以建立新的适应金融业发展的现代金融监管体系。蓝图在梳理现行金融监管体系的基础上,提出成立三个层次的监管机构,统一监管目标、监管框架和监管标准,以提高金融监管的有效性。作为"大萧条"以来最大规模的金融监管体制改革方案,一旦实施,蓝图将改变美国现行金融监管体系明显滞后于当代金融业发展的现象。但是,为平衡长远利益与当前利益,蓝图表现出明显的局限性,而动荡的金融市场环境及政治制约导致的多方争议也决定了蓝图的实施将是一个漫长的过程。     

The psychological effects on tariff choices for car insurance

Insurance customers increasingly choose between conventional flat-rate car insurance tariffs and innovative usage-based car insurance tariffs such as a pay-per-mile tariff. Usage-based car insurance tariffs require traffic telematics. In this paper, we analyze the decision-making behavior of insurance customers concerning tariff choices as well as the psychological effects. In other service areas, it can be observed that customers often prefer a flat-rate tariff even if their billing rate would be lower on a pay-per-use tariff for a given amount of usage. In study?1, we show that the purchase intention of car insurance tariffs is influenced by psychological effects as well as the customer’s personal experience with the insurance provider and that it is higher for a flat-rate car insurance tariff compared to a pay-per-mile tariff. Customers who have had positive experiences with an insurance provider induce a higher purchase intention for car insurance than customers who have had no experience with an insurance provider. In study?2, we show that the probability of choosing a flat-rate car insurance tariff is higher with increasing monthly kilometers.     

从“首次雇用合同法案”的流产看法国青年就业政策改革的艰难

近年来,法国政府非常关注和推进青年就业政策改革的主要原因是法国失业问题比较严重,青年失业问题更为突出,高福利政策加重企业负担并导致企业不愿雇用青年人。此外,社会保障水平与法国经济发展之间也不协调;法国青年就业政策选择的视角存在一个转变的过程,这就是从最初的努力提供就业机会,改善就业环境,提供公共就业服务以促进青年就业的政策视角,转变为通过给企业提供比较宽松与自由的雇用环境,刺激企业尽可能扩大雇用规模以促进青年就业的政策视角;法国青年就业政策改革所面对的主要阻力是法国社会始终把劳动权视为神圣权利,这不利于法国青年就业政策的改革。完善的劳动法典成为法国劳工维护劳动权的法律武器,也逐渐成为劳工对抗政府就业政策改革的政治工具。特别是近年来,法国社会改革不断引发的罢工与示威运动,也增加青年就业政策改革的困难。