How foresight creates unforeseen futures: the role of doubting

This paper defines foresight as being a mental model about the future and considers the role of foresight in shaping actions and events reflected in imperious, heroic, tragic and chaotic futures (defined within the paper). The paper contends that success in foresight is not about acquiring knowledge or using it to build pictures about the future. Rather, it is the expectations that come with such processes that cause organisational closure, and thus chaotic and tragic futures. The argument is made that firms need to doubt much more than they do.Two processes of doubting are described: the first (single loop doubting) shows how differences between expectations and perception cause doubt that (whenever the underlying mental model is sufficiently plastic) is accommodated by social processes without change. The second process, called double loop doubting, is based on genuine attempts to refute, rather than confirm, mental models about the future. The contention is that such processes would lower expectations and certainty, thereby opening the organisation and enabling mental models to be more accurate.

“I fear there can be no possible doubt about the matter”.

Jack in The Importance of Being Ernest, Oscar Wilde     

Mapping future through the study of the past and present: Estonian suburbia

One of the most visible features in Estonian settlement pattern has in the last decade been the emergence of residential developments, which are primarily situated amidst former agricultural landscapes. The planners and policy-makers often approach the urban sprawl as problematic and unprecedented in the history in this part of Europe and take the current situation as a baseline or Ground Zero in developing future scenarios. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that rapid change and adaptation have been the rule rather than an exception in Estonia (as elsewhere in the Western world) in the last century. Adopting a longer time perspective and advocating a relational rather than oppositional approach to rural and urban, nature and culture, as well as the insider and outsider perspectives and public and private spheres may be useful for understanding the spatial frame and historical context in drafting scenarios. Sketching personal narratives of place that have a focus on the choices made in the past and their physical expressions as indicated on the maps, future options and visions are illustrated. We explore the domestic entanglements of rural and urban in two specific locations in Estonia to find ways to loosen the hold of dualisms and outsider-insider perspectives and to construct a more relational approach. Shifting perspectives may help to demonstrate that the urban sprawl with its cultural and ecological consequences is a part of a continuing process not something negative or new. Mapping the personal and place history illustrates the variety and contributes to ceasing the possibilities instead of tackling the uncertainties as sustainability problems.     

Wendell Bell and the sociology of the future: Challenges past, present and future

As a sociologist dealing with futures studies, Wendell Bell encountered considerable obstacles because his topic - the future, imagined, projected and shaped - poses significant problems for contemporary sociology. The paper discusses Bell's engagement with these disciplinary difficulties and his search for conceptual and methodological solutions. The paper anchors Bell's achievements in a wider historical context, identifies some of the new challenges facing sociology and considers some openings for change in our knowledge practice.     

The past and the possible futures of Futures Studies: Some thoughts on Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

The need to explain the concepts and terms used in Futures Studies, as in other sciences, has existed for a long time. But the necessity to do so has increased since the Second World War and is clearly important in recent debates among different groups involved in the field. This article traces the historical timeline of some of these terms in relation to the social and cultural contexts in which they were coined and first used. It argues that concepts and terms used in Futures Studies are mainly of Western origin and suggests that research should be conducted in different social and cultural contexts for concepts and terms embedded, and possibly used, in cultures different from that of the West. The article also suggests that some sort of ‘liberation movement’ should be started in this direction.     

From change to progress: critical spirituality and the futures of futures studies

This paper argues that for futures studies (FS) to have a future that is relevant to current shifts in meaning and consciousness, then it must incorporate into its methods and practices a sense of mystery founded on a critically spiritual sensibility. Critical spirituality redefines rationality and empiricism by including within their framework both the somatic and the meditative as valid and necessary components of any research activity. In the short term this means a shift away from the current Western obsession with change and a stepping back to allow for critical distance in order to understand that it is in the appreciation of progress — a fundamental shift in consciousness to include the spiritual dimensions of human experience — that discourse will emerge to take FS to the heart of civilisational renewal. In allowing for mystery, silence and the meditative empiricism required to access these categories, critical spirituality lessens the gap between thought and action and thus enables truly transformative academic practice to emerge.The idea of progress has been central to the unfolding of the modernist project over the previous century. Yet as the century drew to a close it became increasingly hard to keep faith with the idea in the face of growing disillusionment and the obvious failure of modernism to deliver what people most wanted: happiness born of personal fulfillment. A growing range of voices in the critical futures field have been questioning the assumption that change in material terms equates with progress.These voices fall into four main areas.

• Post modernist and post structuralist thinkers;

• Feminists empowering postmodern discourse with value laden analyses of power;

• Post colonial thinkers with a debt to neo-Marxist and critical theorists;

• Neo-humanist thinkers with an investment in all three of the above, who work from a critically spiritual perspective.

In this paper I am going to argue that a Neo-humanist vision of the futures of Futures Studies is one which will fully engage the human potential by activating a critically spiritual methodology. This is important as many of the tools of futures work are actually intended for use in anticipating and managing change (uncritically) but have little relevance when considering the nature of progress. Those methods and techniques which engage with the less analytic more visionary process of futures are much more relevant to progress because they actively involve the individuals in the act of ‘futures building’ as opposed to ‘futures scanning’.‘Progress’ here is used to mean fundamental change in the consciousness of both the individual and collective mind. It is essentially spiritual and has no clear temporal or spacial restrictions being timeless, or as Joanna Macy would have it, anchored in “deep time” [1]. Change, on the other hand, is very much associated with technical and material movement, having no connection with the inner fabric of the human psyche. There is no appreciation of spirit here, though great attention is paid to gross national product and the latest technical innovation to hit the market.Futures Studies has the potential to be responsive to future human dilemmas. But to be so it will need to make the effort to embrace tools and concepts that lie beyond the narrow pall of academic rationality as it is currently constituted. A greater space is already emerging within the field that not only tolerates but promotes imaginative and creative processes that break down the intellectual prudery of those who are attached to their own discipline and have little capacity to envision beyond narrow and self imposed confines. Thus we find music and song, poetry and story, art and theatre effective vehicles for work on deeper forms of consciousness. Visioning and imaging workshops such as those run by Joanna Macy, Elise Boulding, John Seed and Warren Ziegler (to name but a few) are growing in power and sophistication. Meditation and other reflective practices — the spiritual quest — seeking to plumb the depth of the human soul become relevant when seen within a broadened definition of rationality and research.Clearly futurists need to be able to assess and describe likely changes in the short, medium and long term but their central goal should be to facilitate areas of human endeavor which can benefit from a closer linkage between action, the consciousness that informs and directs the action and the spirit that underwrites the consciousness. Equally clear is the fact that not all futures trends are as relevant to this deeper layer of operation within Futures Studies.     

Beyond payoff diagrams: how to present risk and return characteristics of structured products

The market for structured products in Germany and Switzerland experienced a decade of rapid growth before the financial crisis. When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, however, it became apparent that many private investors had not been aware of the risks involved in these certificates. There is evidence that the success of some of the most popular products was due to behavioral biases of investors. There is also concern that the complexity and diversity of the products was accompanied by low transparency. In practice, the information provided to investors is still often focused on payoff diagrams. For the future development of the market, it is important to improve investors’ information and understanding. To this end, this paper analyzes the information requirements and proposes a risk and return survey to provide relevant and comprehensive information on market risk. Specifically, we propose to (1) illustrate the return probability distribution in three different ways, in particular a rolling dice analogy, (2)  apply the Leland model to specify the risk and return tradeoff, and (3) include a specific measure of active risk. We illustrate these measures and information tools for a sample of stylized products.     

Narrative futures and the governance of energy transitions

Today's societies confront an enormous challenge with regard to governing complex energy systems change. We argue that futures approaches based on narrative strategies that encourage individual and collective storytelling and meaning construction offer a valuable tool for enhancing societal capacity to meet this and similar governance challenges. We report on a two-day scenario planning exercise that sought to implement and test these ideas. The exercise involved a diverse group of professionals in both energy and non-energy fields, with a question focused on the narrative construction and deliberation of scenarios about Arizona's energy future in 2050.     

How past becomes prologue: a sensemaking interpretation of the hindsight-foresight relationship given the circumstances of crisis

Foresight is rooted in deep understanding [A.N. Whitehead. Lecture notes from address to the Harvard Business School, 1931]. Such understanding requires that we shall have first looked back to the past before venturing forward into the future. This paper uses Weick’s and colleagues’ sense making perspective in order to explore this critical relationship between the past and the future [[2], [3], [4], [5], [6] and [7]]. In particular, key sense making properties will be applied to a crisis, an occurrence of school-place violence that occurred in the United States in 1999. We shall then ask how this organization and its diverse external stakeholders used their understanding of this event to learn how to prevent such crises from occurring in the future. In other words, how capably was hindsight constructed and then how was it used to strengthen foresight into the future? This paper will conduct a theory-based empirical examination of a crisis event and its aftermath to understand how hindsight can be sharpened and then used to improve organizational foresight.     

An examination of the Vietnamese emerging market economy: understanding how and why auditors have responded to the audit law reforms

Using New Institutional Sociology (NIS), we seek to explain the variation between what was intended with the Vietnamese reforms to audit in 2011 and the actual practice, and why there is variation. This paper reports findings from interviews with 70 individuals representing identified groups of stakeholders in the market for audit and assurance services in Vietnam. Overall, the findings indicate that there still exist business risks for foreign companies that pursue trade and commerce in communist Vietnam, particularly where non‐Big 4 audit firms are involved in the external audit function, as in some cases auditor independence is most likely compromised.     

The study of futures, and the analysis of power

This study attempts to find out in which direction global power distribution is shifting. This is expected to shed light on the chances we have to build a democratic, ecologically sustainable and socially just world future society. The paper raises and explores, to some extent, three questions: (1) Who is the emerging global ruling class, and does it develop some sort of class consciousness? (2) What are the means used by the global ruling class in the class struggle? and (3) What are likely consequences for the future of global society?     

Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

Index-futures arbitrage and the behavior of stock index futures prices

This article examines intraday transaction data for S&P500 stock index futures prices and the intraday quotes for theunderlying index. The data indicate that the futures price changesare uncorrelated and that the variability of these price changesexceeds the variability of price changes in the S&P 500index. This excess variability of the futures over the indexremains even after controlling for the nonsynchronous pricesin the index quotes, which induces auto-correlation in the indexchanges. We advance and examine empirically two hypotheses regardingthe difference between the futures price and its theoreticalvalue: that this 'mispricing' increases on average with maturity,and that it is path-dependent. Evidence supporting these hypothesesis presented.     

The fragmented futures of human rights and democracy: A review of recent literature

A wide spectrum of recent futures-oriented, English-language literature on human rights and democracy is surveyed. Human rights and democracy are seldom mentioned together, and the literature on each of these two important concerns is profoundly fragmented. An appreciative framework for integrative thinking is created here. The future of both human rights and democracy is found to be profoundly ambiguous, with many threats and opportunitities. Looking at all of them through a broad overview could hasten the progress of democracy and human rights, or retard decay.     

School, images of the futures and social processes in classrooms

Futures studies express a deep concern for the negative effect school education has on young people's images of the future and their proactive attitude to the future. Here, images are regarded as cultural maps and the article attempts to outline a model of interaction in the classroom, which may be useful for understanding how school practices affect images.Given the cultural perspective on images, the analysis focuses on the social processes that organise the creation, negotiation, and distribution of cultural inventories in the classroom, including the meanings and meaningful expressions about future.

Whenever a culture is understood to be a collective phenomenon, it needs a sociology. When this sociology is left implicit, the danger is greater than it is a weak sociology.Ulf Hannerz

     

A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory

Testing the two-parameter asset pricing theory is difficult (and currently infeasible). Due to a mathematical equivalence between the individual return/‘beta’ linearity relation and the market portfolio's mean-variance efficiency, any valid test presupposes complete knowledge of the true market portfolio's composition. This implies, inter alia, that every individual asset must be included in a correct test. Errors of inference inducible by incomplete tests are discussed and some ambiguities in published tests are explained.