走出去战略:维护国家经济安全和可持续发展的重要战略

走出去战略是中国面向21世纪的大战略。然而,自上个世纪90年中期我国提出实施走出去战略以来,无论是从对这一战略紧迫性认识上,还是从具体协调实施上,比之西部大开发都显得力度不够。近来我国又提出振兴东北老工业基地的战略,那么,这三大战略究竟应是怎样的关系．中国实施走出去战略究竟有怎样的意义？又有哪些具体问题?为此,在全国政协十届二次会议期间,本刊记者采访了十届全国政协委员、中国进出口银行行长羊子林,他以其独到的见解,就实施走出去战略问题谈了看法。     

A foresight strategy for future generations

This paper briefly considers three key areas where forward thinking is particularly vital: education, business and government. Drawing mainly upon examples from the Australian context, it suggests a broad rationale for establishing a ‘national foresight strategy’. The latter is supported by a more general model for developing social foresight. A further stimulus to forward thinking and future vision is to consider what advice future generations might offer us if they had the chance.     

Global trade and the future of national health care reform

As a result of economic globalization, health care reform is no longer strictly a matter of domestic health policy and politics. This paper argues that international trade agreements impose institutional constraints on governments’ abilities to implement health care reform, and, if left unchallenged, could frustrate social reforms. The thesis is developed through three case studies that examine the implications of various trade agreements for health care reform in the United States, Canada, and Australia. The findings are discussed in the context of theoretical debates concerning the impact of globalization on the autonomy of nation states and the relevance of national politics.     

我国金融运行状况和未来改革与发展策略

本文总结了中国金融业改革与发展的成绩和经验,指出在后危机时期,金融业面临的机遇和挑战。今后将进一步深化金融改革和扩大开放,充分发挥市场在金融资源配置中的基础性作用,促进国民经济又好又快地发展。     

On the usefulness of the contrarian strategy across national stock markets: A grid bootstrap analysis

This paper statistically evaluates the usefulness of the contrarian investment strategy across the national stock markets of 18 developed countries. The contrarian strategy implicitly assumes that asset prices tend toward a fundamental value path over time. Conventional bootstrap analyses and panel unit root tests are often consistent with such a hypothesis. However, these results might be contaminated by small-sample bias and/or by not controlling cross-section dependence. Correcting for small-sample bias nonparametrically, I find extremely slow mean reversion rates, which provide strong evidence against the usefulness of the contrarian strategy.     

并购保证及补偿保险：机理、释义及展望

随着全球经济的企稳回暖和政府"走出去引进来"战略的实施,我国企业跨国并购交易稳步增长。但在并购过程中,风险无处不在。企业应如何转移、规避并购交易风险?学术界往往从企业和政府角度探讨解决方案,忽视了保险的重要作用。本文在分析我国企业跨国并购趋势及风险的基础上,从经济学视角剖析了并购保证及补偿保险的产生机理,对其主要术语进行了释义,并展望了其在我国的应用前景。并购保证及补偿保险将成为我国企业跨国并购的"稳定器"和"助推器"。     

The energy outlook: combining the options

Where can we get all the energy we will need for the rest of the century to heat our homes, cool our offices, run our hospitals, and keep our factories going? Not from the conventional sources of energy at home and certainly not from foreign oil, say these authors. According to their calculations, U.S. supplies of oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear power will be inadequate, and U.S. importation policy has already made us dangerously dependent on the unstable, unpredictable Middle East. To lessen our dependence on imported oil, they say, requires a balanced program of adopting reasonable conservation measures, developing solar power, and producing energy from our usual domestic sources under new incentives.     

Monitoring the future. Building an early warning system for the Dutch Ministry of Justice

To determine the sustainability of the policy, an Early Warning System (EWS) has been developed for the Dutch Ministry of Justice. An EWS is used to monitor various developments and to place them within the perspective of future scenarios. Without actually predicting the future, this makes it possible to determine which scenario is the most relevant at any given moment, allowing the department to adapt its policies. Regular modifications to the EWS make it possible to monitor in the direction of which scenario society appears to be moving. This creates a path to the future with which the sustainability of (new) policies can be tested periodically.     

The importance of threat,strategy, and resource appraisals for long-term proactive risk management among forest owners in Sweden

In natural hazards management, it is important to understand what motivates people to act when they or their property are threatened by natural hazards. Despite the importance of both threat and coping appraisals for responses to threats, less is known about the relations between threat and coping appraisals when risk management is long term. The present study examined appraisals of threat (cognitive and emotional), personal resources (cost and self-efficacy), and strategies (response-efficacy) as predictors of proactive management responses (past behavior and future intention) among forest owners in Sweden by means of a questionnaire (n = 1482). A path analysis revealed that threat appraisals and response-efficacy were direct predictors of past risk management behavior and the intention to respond in the future. Appraisals of resources, including cost and self-efficacy, were indirectly – via forest susceptibility and threat appraisals – related to threat responses. Although the model displayed reasonable fit for both owners more and those less involved in forestry, the cognitive appraisals variable was not a significant predictor of responses among owners less involved in forestry. In the full sample, the examined model explained approximately 50% of the variance in threat appraisals, and 28 and 17% in future intention and past behavior, respectively. Theoretical implications for how threat and coping appraisals are related during long-term risk management, and practical implications for forest risk management, are discussed.     

仅靠国企承担国家战略是错误思维

这个分论坛的主题涉及到国企重回市场.理解这个主题不是说国企已经离开市场了,其实国企真的离开市场,民企是很欢迎的.问题是,国企一直没有离开市场,坦率讲,国企一直在市场当中.理解这个主题的关键是,国企在市场中应该以一种什么样的行为方式在市场中存在和在市场中活动,这才是问题的关键.也就是说我们要改变国企在市场中的行为方式或者说活动方式.     

Organising the human world: An evolutionary outlook

Based on a concept that the evolution of man and mankind moves in successive phases, each characterised by a certain organisation determined by its scope, this study examines the relationship between external and internal evolutionary factors. It describes the basic evolutionary mechanism of human systems which alternates between stability and mutation, and is similar to that of non-equilibrium physical systems. In the human system this mutation means fluctuations towards a higher, more complex level, and—because of the designing capacity of man—increasingly conscious management of dynamic regimes. This has so far happened at the levels of ecological and social organisation. Now, with fluctuations passing to the level of cultural organisation, we can attempt to design new codes of social ethics, new social institutions, or new social systems.     

Long-term care financing: options for the future

The aging of the baby boomers will have an enormous impact on the future of long-term care costs. This article projects the magnitude of that impact, discusses sources of financing, and considers the cost and feasibility of three options for financing future long-term care services. The authors investigate the alternatives of increasing personal savings, raising payroll taxes and expanding employer-sponsored private long-term care insurance coverage, respectively.     

Practical bioregionalism: A philosophy for a sustainable future and a hypothetical transition strategy for Armidale, New South Wales, Australia

To reorientate society towards sustainability, a clear vision based on a coherent philosophy is needed to act as a compass point. This research describes one possible ‘eco-utopian’ approach, and uses it to develop a hypothetical set of transition strategies aimed at the transformation of an Australian regional community. The vision combines bioregional principles with ecological modernisation theory to present a model of a small-scale society that is socially and ecologically responsive. In this model, communities are organised primarily around naturally defined regions, but are outward looking and globally engaged. Political decision-making is democratic, participatory and collaborative. An ethos rooted in the notion of a global civil society provides vision and desirable levels of accountability. Production and consumption are local, cooperative and use natural resources efficiently. Existing social and political trends suggest that the bioregional model developed in this paper is both pragmatic and possible. A hypothetical case-study approach is used to illustrate how such ‘practical bioregionalism’ may be successfully adopted. An initial 25-year plan, with five desired outcomes, is outlined for the Armidale Plateau region of New South Wales, Australia. Key strategies include use of Local Agenda 21 processes, the development of a bioregional strategic plan and partial economic localisation. Implementation requires active participation of the community, including government and business actors. It is argued that the proposed transition strategy is also of direct relevance to achieving sustainability goals in larger urban areas and the global South.     

China's search for the future: A genealogical approach

This paper is a dialectical inquiry, presenting a genealogy of, China futures discourses and visions from ancient times through to the, present. It uses both structural and macrohistorical based approaches. The identified worldviews are placed in their broader historical, epistemes; asked why change has occurred, how it fits within patterns of, history and what kind of futures are offered. It is unique in that I use, the futures triangle methodology to discuss the “pulls” of the future in, each historical era with the corresponding “pushes” of the present and, “weights” of the past. The article concludes with a theory of futures in, Chinese history and looks at which philosophies are likely to play a role, in the possible futures of China. The aim is to highlight which visions, and images have been victorious is affecting the present and influencing, the future.     

Forecasting the future: pitfalls in controlling for uncertainty

Whatever the specific definition, the common denominator of any kind of forecast is a reference to the future. This implies that all sources of uncertainty associated with describing present and past must also be associated with forecasting—and one more: the specification error inherent in the future dimension. In particular, this error should be associated with the distinction between causality and correlation, i.e. the understanding of behaviour, the necessary prerequisite for prediction. Thus, the key representational problem, the gap between model and reality, and the conditions for controlling that gap, becomes particularly evident in forecasting. This article is an attempt at clarifying some of the uncertainties most prevalent in forecasting, as a means to show with what respect they must be treated. The discussion relates to forecasting in general, but with some special references to air traffic.