Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques in a Decision Support System for Group Decision Making

This paper describes a group decision support system based on an additive multi-attribute utility model for identifying a consensus strategy in group decision-making problems where several decision-makers or groups of decision-makers elicit their own preferences separately. On the one hand, the system provides procedures to quantify the DMs or group of DMs preferences separately. This involves assessing the DMs or group of DMs component utilities that represent their preferences regarding the respective possible attribute values and objective weights that represent the relative importance of the criteria. On the other hand, we propose Monte Carlo simulation techniques for identifying a consensus strategy. An iterative process will be carried out, where, after the simulations have been performed, the imprecise component utilities and weights corresponding to the different DMs or groups of DMs are tightened to output more meaningful information in the next simulations to achieve a consensus strategy. Finally, an application to the evaluation of remedial strategies for restoring contaminated aquatic ecosystems illustrates the usefulness and flexibility of this decision support tool.     

Electronic Meetings and Intense Group Conflict: Effects of a Policy-Modeling Performance Support System and an Audio Communication Support System on Satisfaction and Agreement

Ad-hoc decision teams were used to examine the effects of an electronic meeting system (EMS) on group satisfaction and agreement. The decision task provoked intense conflict of values. The EMS had two core features - a policy-modeling group performance support system (incorporating structured decision methods and computer-supported cognitive feedback using Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis and Social Judgment Analysis), and an audio-based group communication support system (allowed dispersed members to communicate by voice). Policy groups reached higher agreement than conventional decision-making groups, apparently due primarily to the structure for cognitive-conflict tasks that was imposed on group discussion rather than computer-supported cognitive feedback displays. Audio groups were more satisfied with the conflict process than face-to-face groups. Decision agreement was equivalent across the two media. These audio effects for a highly equivocal task represent a further challenge to media richness theory.     

The Role of Information Feedback in the Management Group Decision-Making Process Applying System Dynamics Models

The research project addresses the influence of feedback information on the decision process supported by the application of system dynamics models. A user-friendly application was developed and used in the experiment with decision groups. The participants were 174 undergraduate management science students. They had the task of determining the optimum business strategy by maximizing the multiple criteria function under three experimental conditions: a ₁) an indivIDual decision process without the support of a system dynamics model, a ₂) an indivIDual decision process supported by a system dynamics model, and a ₃) a decision process supported by a system dynamics model and subject interaction via computer mediation. The hypotheses that the indivIDual decision process supported by a system dynamics model yields higher Criteria Function values than one without a system dynamics model, as well as the decision process supported by both a system dynamics model and subject interaction yields higher Criteria Function values than one supported by a system dynamics model alone were confirmed.     

A Distance-Based Collective Weak Ordering

A group decision-making approach can be seen as a two stage process. The first stage allows for multi-cirteria evaluation of the alternatives and the second aims at deriving a collective weak ordering from the partial orderings supplied by the members after the first stage. The problem of combining the weak orderings to form a collective ranking is investigated. An axiomatic structure relating to the concept of distance between binary relations is developed. An algorithm for deriving the collective weak ordering is proposed, based on the idea of ranking first the least dominated alternatives.     

INTERACT: Developing software for interactive decisions

This paper describes the development and use of a piece of software, INTERACT, for analyzing situations under the control of several interested parties. After briefly discussing forms of analysis used, it outlines the design philosophy of the software itself. Particular attention is paid to its intended use in a decision support role. The functions typically performed in the course of analysis are illustrated using a worked example. Finally, avenues for further development are outlined.An earlier version of this paper was read at the Conference on Decision Making under Conditions of Conflict, University of Waterloo, Ontario, August/Sept 1992     

Group Decision Support Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Causal Reasoning

Cognitive maps have been used for analysing and aiding decision-making by investigating causal links among relevant domain concepts. A fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is an extension of a cognitive map with the additional capability of representing feedback through weighted causal links. FCMs can be used as tools for both static as well as dynamic analysis of scenarios evolving with time. An FCM represents an expert's domain knowledge in a form that lends itself to relatively easy integration into a collective knowledge base for a group involved in a decision process. The resulting group FCM has the potential to serve as a useful tool in a group decision support environment. An appropriate methodology for the development and analysis of group FCMs is required. A framework for such a methodology consisting of the development and application phases is presented.     

Perspectives on representation and analysis of negotiation: Towards cognitive support systems

The rapid expansion of Decision and Negotiation Support Systems has been built mainly on decision-theoretic approaches. This has resulted in the decision maker being viewed through the lens of the problem. In this article, the focus is on the decision maker's view of the problem. Three levels of problem articulation are described. Special emphasis is placed on the needs level and the implications it carries for the cognitive and instrumental levels. The three levels of articulation, the organizational model of making decision in social settings, and the three basic approaches to decision making form the basis for computer support focused on understanding and change rather than preferences and outcomes. We argue that in the dynamic, interactive context characteristic of negotiations, a cognitive support system based on restructurable modeling provides a richer basis for support.     

Evaluating a Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision Support in Water Resources Management

In this paper we describe a framework for multicriteria modeling and support of multi-stakeholder decision processes. We report on its testing in the development of a new water level management policy for a regulated lake-river system in Finland. In the framework the stakeholders are involved in the decision process from the problem structuring stage to the group consensus seeking stage followed by a stage of seeking public acceptance for the policy. The framework aims at creating an evolutionary learning process. In this paper we also focus on the use of a new interactive method for finding and identifying Pareto-optimal alternatives. Role playing experiments with students are used to test the practical applicability of a negotiation support procedure called the method of improving directions. We also describe the preference programming approach for the aggregation of the stakeholder opinions in the final evaluation of alternatives and consensus seeking.     

Negotiation support using the Decision Support System GMCR

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution constitutes a unique and flexible approach to the representation, analysis, and understanding of strategic conflict. This methodology, as implemented in the Decision Support System GMCR, constitutes a useful tool for negotiation support. Because GMCR includes efficient algorithms for calculating the stability of states, it encourages extensive comparisons of the consequences of different models of negotiators' decision making. GMCR also facilitates modifications to the way in which the conflict is represented, encouraging sensitivity and what-if analyses. The applicability of GMCR to negotiations is discussed in general, and in the context of a specific case study in environmental conflict resolution.     

Combining GDSS and Gaming for Decision Support

Both gaming and group (decision) support systems (GDSS) are frequently used to support decision-making and policymaking in multi-actor settings. Despite the fact that there are a number of ways in which gaming and GDSS can be used in a complementary manner, there are only sporadic examples of their combined use. No systematic overview or framework exists in which GDSS are related to the functions of gaming or vice versa. In this article, we examine, why, how and for what purpose GDSS can be used to enrich and improve gaming simulation for decision support, and vice versa. In addition to a review of examples found in the literature, four games are discussed where we combined gaming and GDSS for complex decision making in a multi actor context: incodelta, a game about transportation corridors; infrastratego, a game about a liberalizing electricity market; containers a drift, a game about the planning of a container terminal, and; dubes, a game about sustainable urban renewal. Based on the literature and these four experiences, a classification is presented of (at least) four ways in which GDSS and gaming can be used in a complementary or even mutually corrective, manner: the use of GDSS for game design, for game evaluation, for game operation and the use of gaming for research, testing and training of GDSS.     

Decision making under conditions of conflict

A real-world application is employed to explain three general types of decision situations that can arise under conditions of conflict. In addition, meaningful connections and relationships among these areas of decision making are clearly pointed out. To permit useful decision technologies to be employed by practitioners for better understanding and for resolving a variety of actual decision problems, a range of flexible decision support systems is discussed. Subsequently, interesting research developments contained in the upcoming sequence of 12 articles on decision making under conflict are summarized and compared. The research articles not only present unique approaches to decision making involving multiple participants, each of whom may have multiple objectives, but suggest a variety of challenging research problems to be investigated in the future.     

Ethical Decision Making: A Comparison of Computer- Supported and Face-to-face Group

This study compares computer-supported groups, i.e., groups using group support systems (GSS), and face-to-face groups using ethical decision-making tasks. A laboratory experiment was conducted using five-person groups of information systems professionals. Face-to-face (FTF) and GSS groups were compared in terms of their decision outcomes and group members' reactions. The results revealed that computer-supported and face-to-face groups showed no significant difference in terms of the decision outcomes of choice shift and decision polarity. However, FTF groups reached their decisions more quickly and they were more successful in attaining group consensus than GSS groups. Subjects evaluated face-to-face communication more favorably than GSS interaction on most post-group measures related to perceived group processes and satisfaction. Despite these outcomes, some possibilities for using GSS technology in an ethical decision making context are examined.     

Accessibility of Computer-based Simulation Models in Inherently Conflict-Laden Negotiations

The use of computer-based simulation models has a long history in areas such as environmental planning and policy-making, and particularly in water management. Policy making in these areas is often characterized by inherent conflict among diverse stakeholders with divergent interests. Although simulation models have been shown to be helpful for such problems, they are typically under the control of a technical analyst or governmental agency and are not available to negotiators in real time. Recent trends in computer technology and user expectations raise the possibility of real-time, user-controlled models for supporting negotiation. But is such accessibility likely to be helpful? This study used a "compressed" longitudinal experiment to investigate the impacts of different scenarios of accessibility of computer-based simulation models. The task was based on a real-life problem in Colorado River water management. Results revealed no significant differences among conditions for either solution quality or satisfaction. These results suggest that the common notion of "more is better" may be inappropriate, and resources for improving computer support of negotiation might best be focused elsewhere.     

Multi-agent interaction processes: From oligopoly theory to decentralized artificial intelligence

This article examines the group processes studied in oligopoly theory and in decentralized artificial intelligence. We develop a unifying perspective for the research on the behavior of autonomous interacting agents. Among the many questions of interest in these disciplines are the ways of creating and reaching cooperation by a group of self-interested independent decentralized agents. In this respect, the models and results of oligopoly theory can also be used both in decentralized artificial intelligence and in many other areas of research, such as group decision making, negotiation support, and organizational theory. In particular, the important idea of reshaping goals with strategic information sharing and transmission—incentive communication—has received little attention outside the field of economics. On the other hand, oligopoly theory and experimental economics can especially benefit from the computational methods and tools of artificial intelligence and modern decision support technology. To demonstrate this we have built a prototype of an experimental market analysis environment. Its potential in the analysis of group processes is illustrated with examples.     

Cultural Dimensions and Prototypical Criteria for Multi-Criteria Decision Support in Electronic Markets: A Comparative Analysis of Two Job Markets

Electronic markets are virtual meeting places where buyers and sellers interact to trade products or services. The main motivation for both buyers and sellers to participate in an electronic market is the desire to maximize their private utility (Bakos 1998). Electronic markets therefore usually provide some form of communication, decision or negotiation aid for buyers and sellers to support their utility maximizing goals. This paper presents a comparative analysis of two electronic job market case studies conducted at a university in Europe (Brussels, Belgium) and in the United States (Newark, New Jersey). At the occasion of the universities’ career fairs, students (n = 392) and local companies (n = 57) were invited to participate in an electronic job market to identify the best job offers (n = 137) and students, respectively. Participants were able to create personalized software agents to aid their search and decision making activities in the market. Every software agent was embedded with a multi-criteria decision support tool to produce a rank ordered list of students or job offers. Preference data gathered from market participants’ use of the multi-criteria decision model allow us to construct relational preference structures using a technique based on the mathematical theory of fuzzy relations (Bandler and Kohout 1980). These preference structures express relationships among the criteria that students and companies have used to identify job offers and companies, respectively. The purpose of the paper is to present the communicative and cultural implications of these relational preference structures. The theories of Hofstede (1983), Hall (1977) and Trompenaars (1993) on cultural dimensions allow us to discuss cultural differences on the choice of prototypical criteria. The paper concludes with implications for the use of electronic markets in the staffing industry and the role of software agents in such job markets.     

Cognitive hurdles in the use of decision support systems to enhance problem understanding

Computer-assisted decision support systems have been widely promoted as a means of enhancing problem understanding in crisis and noncrisis decision making. Clinical observation of actual applications of a particular category of software for interactive decisions (CONAN, DECISIONMAKER) have identified cognitive hurdles in the use of such systems. These hurdles not only pose a challenge to the development of such normative interventions in the decision process, but also an opportunity for furthering the shift to a new psychologically informed paradigm for decision making.     

A multiobjective decision support system for multiresource forest management

A multiobjective and/or multiperson decision support system for analyzing multiresource forest management problems is developed in this paper. The procedure includes formulating the problem in a multiobjective and group decision making framework, and solving it using two solution techniques which consist of a distance-based compromise programming (CP) and a cooperative game theoretic approach of the Nash equilibrium type. The problem consists of five forest resources management objective functions to be maximized. Solving the problem using the two solution techniques enables determining a satisfactory compromise solution of the five forest resource management objectives. Sensitivity analysis of the two techniques shows compromise programming to be more sensitive to changes in the weight and the p-parameter of the technique while the cooperative game theoretic approach is relatively robust with respect to changes in the worst utility set.     

Rational Moralists and Moral Rationalists Value-Based Management: Model,Criterion and Validation

This paper considers ethical decision making by blending three streams of related research: cognitive moral development of the decision maker, rational choice theory and a subjective expected utility model. Ethical dilemmas can be defined as situations where moral certainty is compromised by rational cognition. In this paper, the authors assume that some people use a morality-first perspective and others a rationality-first perspective. Ethical scenarios were written and used to test hypotheses derived from this perspective. The instrument developed was shown to be in need of further refinement. Results are discussed in terms of relationships between participant-characteristics variables overall and subscale responses to the ethical scenarios.     

Using and Influence Level of Information to Explain the Non-consensus Process Loss

Much of the Group Support System (GSS) literature comparing GSS groups with manual groups has produced contrarian results. One of the more confusing is that GSS groups have a higher level of non-consensus than manual groups. Lack of consensus in GSS groups is considered to be a negative aspect of GSS. This paper argues that low levels of consensus are not necessarily harmful and should be expected given the assumptions about GSSs. This study uses an alternate measure to compare face-to-face groups with GSS groups; an influence level of information. Experimental results using an influence level of information show no difference between face-to-face group members and GSS group members. We discuss these implications, as well as additional directions for further consensus research.