Demand substitution across US cities: Observable similarity and home price correlation

This paper studies demand substitution in the context of US cities. Demand substitution occurs when individuals on the margin between certain city pairs affect demand patterns in the aggregate, causing certain cities to be better substitutes than others. Using a discrete model of city choice, I derive two predictions for migration flows and test them empirically using city-to-city migration data from the US Census. I show that cities which are similar on a variety of observable measures have higher levels of gross migration flows in the steady state and higher net migration flows in response to labor demand shocks. Finally, I propose pairwise correlation in metropolitan home prices as a price-based measure of substitutability and show that it contains substantial predictive power for migration flows relative to observable similarity.     

ECONOMIC SYSTEM CONVERSION AND MIGRATION TRANSITION IN RUSSIA

This paper examines migration changes in Russia due to the transition of the economic system. As expected, great changes in migration patterns occurred in Russia. The correlation coefficients between federal investment and interregional migration are positive and large during the Soviet period, indicating that political incentives played a major role in migration patterns in the USSR. However, the regional development policy implemented in the Soviet era may not have been socially efficient in causing migration inflows and excess labor supply in the Far North regions. In addition, it can be said that the government could not control population flows perfectly even in the planned economy.     

GOVERNING MIGRATION THROUGH SMALL TOWNS: Dispersal and the Production of Spaces of Transit

Based on qualitative long-term fieldwork conducted in a peripherally located small town in East Germany, this article compares the dispersal of repatriates from the former Soviet Union with that of recent refugee arrivals. It shows that in this small town the dispersal and local governance of refugees builds on previous approaches to dealing with repatriates. Such approaches repeatedly result in cycles of localized distribution and subsequent small-scale segregation, short-term integration activities, the detachment of both groups from the town and, finally, migrants’ subsequent outmigration and relocation to other (mostly larger) cities. To make sense of this path dependency in terms of its specific patterns and characteristics, and to explore the relationships between dispersal, local policy framings, and in- and outmigration to and from small towns, I apply a studying through dispersal approach. This approach reveals that dispersal is an important factor in making and unmaking local migration policies. It can turn small towns into productive sites for migration governance, often transforming them into mere waiting zones and transit spaces. This not only continues migrants’ experiences of displacement but also impacts on the image of the small town, where migrants themselves may not want to reside permanently.     

The role of U.S. Investors in international equity market inflows,outflows, and net flows for selected emerging asian markets

This paper investigates the relationship between international equity flows and returns in the eight largest emerging Asian markets from 1988 through March 2002. Both the feedback-trading hypothesis, which states that past returns affect flows, and the information hypothesis, which states that flows affect returns, are tested. Volatility effects are included, and effects of the 1997 Asian crisis on the relationships are also studied. While past studies have focused on net flows, this paper investigates outflows and inflows separately to determine whether their behavior patterns follow those of net flows.     

Improving Statistics on International Migration in Asia

International migration has reached unprecedented scale, diversity and political, economic, social and demographic significance in Asia over the last decade. Despite this data collection of migrant stocks and flows remains very limited in most Asian countries. Accordingly, policy making on migration in the region lacks an evidence base and is influenced by interest groups, anecdotal evidence and prejudice. This paper argues that the heightened security consciousness since 911 together with the development of efficient computer based collection and analysis of migration data systems has created a propitious environment for bringing about a parametric improvement in data collection on international migration in Asia. A number of suggestions are made in this regard, especially the inclusion of relevant international migration questions in the 2010 round of population censuses.     

THE IMPACT OF RURAL OUTMIGRATION ON REGION OF ORIGIN IN KOREA*

To assess the impact of rural outmigration on regions of origin, this paper borrows from international trade theory to develop a model of rural-to-urban migration. Borrowing from theories of nontraded goods and Dutch Disease, a model is developed for application to Korea. The model finds that rural outmigration can be detrimental to the rural sector when outmigration reduces farm profitability and triggers deterioration in the rural service sector. Farm profitability falls because of rising labor costs that cannot be passed on to consumers. The rural service sector falters when outmigration reduces market demand while raising input costs. County (kun) level Korean census data are used to test the model.     

Household demand for financial assets: A life-cycle analysis

This paper examines the demand for major financial assets by householders during different stages of their lives using the life-cycle theory of consumption and saving and cross-sectional data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Unlike most studies on money demand, data used in this study are microeconomic and free from the identification problem frequently encountered in the literature. Regression results show that the propensities to hold financial assets out of labor income, wealth, and net worth differ substantially among young, middle-age, and old householders. Also, the impacts of relative rates of return and demographic variables on asset demands vary among householders of different ages.     

INTERNAL MIGRATION IN TURKEY, 1965–1985: TEST OF CONFLICTING FINDINGS IN THE LITERATURE

The purpose of this paper is to bring new insights to some of the conflicting findings in the migration literature about developing countries by using detailed analyses of Turkish migration data. The possible reasons behind inconsistencies in the findings are explained in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics of the data, and by national macro factors (mainly the level of urbanization and the characteristics of the urban systems). Tested were rural out-migration and push factors; changes in the size of rural-to-urban and urban-to-rural return migration; the effect of distance; and the share and effect of rural-to-urban migration in the urban growth and in the unbalanced population distribution in developing countries.     

Rural-Urban Migration Rates and Development: A Quantitative Note

There have been two earlier efforts to estimate how rural outmigration rates evolve over the development process. In one the sample was too small and possibilities of a non-monotonic pattern were precluded. In the other inverted U-shaped migration rate patterns were estimated on the basis of an urbanization logistic curve. It is argued here that estimates based on such a curve would tend to be biased downward at very high per capita income levels. The reason is the relatively small rural populations of most industrialized countries. In such countries relatively high rates of rural outmigration could still be consistent with relatively slow rates of urbanization. Using more direct estimation techniques inverted U-shaped patterns were confirmed, but the turning points occurred much later in the development process and the migration rate estimates were sharply higher (up to five times at the highest per capita income levels) than those of the logistic estimates or even those estimated here on the basis of an LDC only sample. Finally, when the effects of income growth rates on migration rates were estimated directly, the high sensitivity levels found in the logistic study (where growth rates were treated simply as a shift parameter) could not be replicated.     

A fuzzy bi-level method for modeling age-specific migration

Modeling and forecasting international migration are significant research areas since migration forecasts are vital in decision making and policy design regarding economy, security, society, and resource allocation. The methods for modeling and forecasting migration rely on strict subjective or statistical assumptions which may not always be met. In addition, lack of a universally accepted definition of the term “migrant” and the ambiguities in data due to recording and collection systems result in inconsistencies and vagueness in migration modeling. Considering these, in this paper, a fuzzy bi-level age-specific migration modeling method is proposed. The bi-level structure embedded in the model makes use of the well-known Lee-Carter method as well as fuzzy regression, singular value decomposition technique, and hierarchical clustering to reflect the general characteristics of the country of concern together with the distinct emigration and immigration behaviors of the age groups. Bayesian time series models are fitted to the time-variant fuzzy parameters obtained through the proposed method to forecast future migration values. The proposed method is applied on female and male age-specific emigration and immigration counts of Finland for 1990–2010 period and Germany for 1995–2012 period, and the future values are forecasted for 2011–2025 and 2013–2025 respectively. The method is compared with an existing Bayesian approach and the numerical findings display that the proposed fuzzy method is superior to the existing one in modeling and forecasting age-specific migration values within significantly narrower prediction intervals.     

Voting with their feet: Relative economic conditions and state migration patterns

Over the past decade, state and local policymakers and business leaders across the U.S. have expressed concern regarding the ability to attract and retain skilled workers, given the economic climate of their states compared with other parts of the nation. Examining the factors underlying state-level migration trends is important to determine what role, if any, public policy might play in addressing their potential impact on local labor supply. Using data from the Internal Revenue Service for each of the 48 states in the continental United States from 1977 through 2006, this paper examines the role of three economic factors—namely labor market conditions, per capita incomes, and housing affordability—in determining domestic state-to-state migration flows. Estimates from a logistic model of out-migration show that while all three measures of relative economic conditions are significant determinants of migration, the magnitude of their impact varies and has changed considerably over time. For example, the importance of per capita income as a determining factor has fallen considerably since the late 1970s, while that of housing affordability has risen. Interestingly, the role of labor market conditions—while significant throughout the entire 30-year period—was most prominent in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Estimates from the model are used to forecast migration for 2009 for selected states. The results from this exercise are surprisingly accurate when compared to actual state migration patterns for that year.     

DOES MIGRATION REDUCE REGIONAL DISPARITIES? THE ROLE OF SKILL‐SELECTIVE FLOWS

The existence of income per capita disparities is a striking feature of European regional development, while increasing internal migration is often cited as a convergence factor. This paper states that this argument is too simple if migration concerns skilled workers. To support this statement, the focus is on skill-selective migration flows: first, it is shown how easily they can happen (for instance, they can be caused by different regional wage settings); then, a model is used to investigate the effects of different regional endowments of immobile factors on migration. The model shows that skill-selective migration can, in some cases, lead to increasing income per capita disparities and, for this reason, policy makers need to pay attention when attempting to narrow regional disparities by easing interregional migration.     

U.S. interstate labor force migration: An analysis of trends, net exchanges, and migration subsystems

The rich geography and complex temporal trends of U.S. interstate labor force migration are portrayed. The most commonly reported net migration statistics hide multi-faceted patterns of state-to-state exchange. Maps depicting net migration balances show that much population redistribution has been taking place counter to the popularly conceived Frostbelt-to-Sunbelt flow. Significant net migration exchange takes place within each of the major regions of the U.S. as well as between them.

Principal component analyses carried out on gross state-to-state flow tables for 1960–1965, 1965–1970, and 1970–1975 suggest the existence of a set of remarkably stable migration subsystems, despite the heralded net migration turnarounds in nonmetropolitan-to-metropolitan and south-to-north patterns of flow.     

Aggregation across countries in stochastic population forecasts

Stochastic methods of multi-state population modeling are less developed than methods for single states for two reasons. First, the structure of a multi-state population is inherently more complex than that of a single state because of state-to-state transitions. Second, estimates of cross-state correlations of the vital processes are a largely uncharted territory. Unlike multi-state lifetable theory, in forecasting applications the role of directed flows from state to state is often less important than the overall coherence of the assumptions concerning the vital processes. This is the case in the context of the European Union. Thus, a simplified approach is feasible, in which migration is represented by state-specific net numbers of migrants. This allows the use of existing single-state software, when simulations are suitably organized, in a multi-state setting. To address the second problem, we provide empirical estimates of cross-country covariances in the forecast uncertainty of fertility, mortality, and net migration. Together with point forecasts of these parameters that are coherent across countries, this produces coherent forecasts for aggregates of countries. The finding is that models for intermediate correlations are necessary for a proper accounting of forecast uncertainty at the aggregate level, in this case the European Union.     

价格波动性与股票预期回报——基于中国市场的初步证据

基于国际资本市场数据的研究发现,股票价格的波动率和股票未来的回报率负相关,而且风险差异不能解释这个现象,文章使用中国股票市场的数据发现了相同的结论。在1998年1月到2003年12月期间内,基于过去一个月内股价波动率的对冲组合在未来六个月内能够取得0.32%的月风险调整超额回报率。M iller(1977)认为股价波动性代表了投资者对股票价值评估的不确定性和异质性,因为卖空限制的存在,波动性高的股票的价格更多地反映了乐观投资者的看法,因而出现高估价值的错误定价。文章分析认为M iller的错误定价理论能够解释股价波动率与未来回报率之间的负相关关系。     

Migration within England and Wales and the Housing Market

Economic conditions exert a strong influence on regional migration. On the one hand, strong labour market conditions, as exemplified by low unemployment rates and high earnings, draw migrants into regions. On the other hand, strong housing market conditions can prevent movement since commuting may often be an alternative to migration. This can be thought of as giving rise to a migration equilibrium where high house prices choke off migration caused by strong labour market conditions. Expected capital gains in housing, however, can offset high levels of house prices, an effect ignored in previous literature. Migration can also be influenced more directly by the availability of housing relative to population without this being mediated through prices. This paper, by Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, presents evidence on inter‐regional net and gross migration between the regions of England and Wales that is broadly in accord with these expectations.     

Migration and gender differences in the home labour market: Evidence from Albania

This paper examines the role of migration in affecting the labour market opportunities of male and female household members left behind. We address this question by analyzing the impact of international migration flows from Albania, where migration is a massive and male-dominated phenomenon. We find that the labour supply of men and women responds differently to current and past migration. Controlling for the potential endogeneity of migration, estimates show that having a migrant abroad decreases female paid labour supply while increasing unpaid work. On the other hand, women with past family migration experience are significantly more likely to engage in self-employment and less likely to supply unpaid work. The same relationships do not hold for men. These results suggest that while left-behind women in Albania may take on the extra burden associated with the migration of male family members, they gain employment opportunities upon their return.     

Fitting Observed Demographic Rates with the Multiexponential Model Schedule: An Assessment of Two Estimation Programs

The process of finding the best fitting model can often be very time consuming and tedious. Most computer programs are very specialized, and many require initial parameter estimates to fit a particular curve. Those that are most useful are ones that are versatile in applications, and ones that allow inputs of "rough" parameter estimates for finding the optimal ones. This paper focuses on current approaches for fitting observed age-specific demographic data with the multiexponential model schedule and uses two curve-fitting computer programs: MODEL and TableCurve2D. These two programs are assessed according to how well, and how simply, they can be used to fit age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration rates.     

Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models

Multicointegration, in the sense of Granger and Lee (1990), frequently occurs in models of stock-flow adjustment and implies cointegration amongst I(2) variables and their differences (polynomial cointegration). The purpose of this article is two-fold. First, we demonstrate that based on a multicointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) two equivalent error correction model (ECM) representations can be derived; the first is expressed in terms of adjustments in the flows of the variables (the standard I(2) ECM), and the second is expressed in terms of adjustments in both the stocks and the flows. Secondly, we apply I(2) estimation and testing procedures for multicointegrated time series to analyze data for US housing construction. We find that stocks of housing units started and completed exhibit poly- nomial cointegration (and hence the flows are multicointegrated) and the associated ECM's are estimated. Lee (1992, 1996) also found multicointegration in this data set but without explicitly exploiting the I(2) property.     

The efficiency of interprovincial migration in Canada, 1961-1978

A programming model is used to analyze the impact of the efficiency of migration flows on regional income disparities in Canada. A new method to measure such efficiency is presented in an attempt to show that occupations involving high-level skills and training have efficient migration patterns. The relationship between income differentials and internal migration is discussed.