Use of Input–Output Approach for Supporting Decisions in the Field of Economic Policy

This article presents basic guidelines of “input–output” approach for decision-making in the field of economic policy. Special attention is given to modern approaches to the analysis and forecasting of economic development by using a cross-sectoral approach. The paper discusses the limitations of structural development of the Russian economy and describes the capabilities of modern interindustry models in the field of macrostructural forecasting.     

Toolkit for the Input–Output Analysis of the Performance of Russian Economy in 1991–2013

Input–output analysis has been used to study the impact made by microstructure factors such as final demand and the matrix of input–output coefficients on the performance of the total gross output of the Russian Federation in 1990–2013. The contribution of these factors to the economic dynamics during the transformational recession in 1991–1998 and the subsequent restoration growth of 1999–2013 have been numerically estimated.     

Using Input−Output Tables for Analyzing and Forecasting the Sectoral Structure of Russian Economy

The paper describes the experience of analyzing and forecasting various aspects of Russian economy based on input?output tables (1st and 2nd quadrants) estimated by the authors from Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the period 1995–2016.     

Cooperation or Confrontation in U.S.–Japan Trade? Some General Equilibrium Estimates

Using a detailed calibrated general equilibrium model, we evaluate the effects of greater cooperation or confrontation in bilateral trade relations between the U.S. and Japan. Our numerical results indicate that, if a trade war between the two were precipitated, the U.S. would eventually benefit from the mutual imposition of reciprocally optimal tariffs. While this result appears negative for those who advocate free trade, it provides the key to overcoming an important incentive problem of liberalization. Specifically, we find that Japan gains more from U.S. unilateral liberalization than from bilateral liberalization and thus has an incentive to limit its commitment to removing trade barriers. Since the U.S. has a credible threat of retaliation, however, it can bargain with Japan to implement bilateral cooperation. In other words, the strategic environment is neither completely harmonious nor discordant. A credible threat of confrontation can secure the basis of cooperation. J. Japan. Int. Econ. June 1999, 13(2), pp. 119–139. Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan; and Department of Economics, Mills College, Oakland, California 94613, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, United Kingdom. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F13, F14.     

Socioeconomic status and judicial disparities in England and Wales, 1870–1910

In a criminal sentencing system based on optimal deterrence, groups will receive different average sentences based on disparities in conviction probabilities, with longer prison sentences balancing more frequent acquittals. A taste-based model makes no such prediction. I compare these models using trial records from England and Wales in 1870, 1883, and 1910, years with extensive jury trials and broad latitude in sentencing for judges. In the earlier years, higher status defendants accused of property crimes receive substantially longer sentences, with no such difference for violent crimes. In contrast, higher status defendants are less likely to be convicted at trial, both when accused of property crimes and of violent crimes. In a Heckman selection empirical model, selection into sentencing has a large effect on the magnitude of these sentencing patterns. For property crimes, there is negative selection on unobservable traits, possibly explained by using imperfect proxies for social class. I conclude that an optimal sentencing and deterrence model is more supported for property crimes than for violent ones, with judges balancing disparate rates of conviction from juries.     

Motor Vehicle Output and GDP, 1968–2007

In this paper, we assess the performance of the BEA series “value of motor vehicle output” as an indicator of the business cycle over the period 1968–2007. We statistically assess the causal relationship between real motor vehicle output (RMVO) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). This is accomplished by standard estimation and statistical methods used to assess vector autoregressive models. This assessment represents the initial results of a more encompassing research project, the intent of which is to determine the dynamic interaction of the transport sector with the overall economy. It’s a start to a more comprehensive assessment of how transport and economic activity interrelate.

The Reform on Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Intervention Models of Renminbi＇s Exchange Rate

This paper establishes a theoretical analysis framework by integrating both the foreign exchange rate regime and the issue of financial globalization. It also deals with the research and analysis on how to prudently push forward the reform on renminbi （RMB）＇s exchange rate, adjust and institute the free convertibility of RMB, so as to meet the demands of further expansion of the Chinese economic and financial reform and opening-up, participation in the economic and financial globalization, integration into the global economy and the acceleration of the Chinese economy, against the backdrop of financial globalization.     

Analysis of the Impact of Scientific and Technical Development on Economic Growth Using Input−Output Balance Tools

The article analyzes problems of measuring the level of technological development of the economy. A review of methods for measuring technological progress and derived estimates of the impact of technological development on economic growth is given. Input?output balance tools are considered, on which basis a structural cost analysis in the Russian economy is performed and alternative estimates of impact of technological changes on economic growth, including by type of economic activity, are assessed.     

Input–output coefficients in the evaluation of a scientific and technological component of the macrostructural forecasting

Approaches to the quantitative evaluation of technological development parameters based on input–output coefficients of the input–output table and possibilities of their application in the estimation of quantitative characteristics of scientific and technological forecasts have been considered. This work is a continuation of studies related to the assessment of the influence of the technological coefficient on the economic dynamics.     

Patenting in England,Scotland and Ireland during the Industrial Revolution, 1700–1852

There are two competing accounts for explaining Britain's technological transformation during the Industrial Revolution. One sees it as the inevitable outcome of a largely exogenous increase in the supply of new ideas and ways of thinking. The other sees it as a demand side response to economic incentives—that in Britain, it paid to invent the technology of the Industrial Revolution. However, this second interpretation relies on the assumption that inventors were sufficiently responsive to new commercial opportunities. This paper tests this assumption, using a new dataset of Scottish and Irish patents. It finds that the propensity of inventors to extend patent protection into Scotland and/or Ireland was indeed closely correlated with the relative market opportunity of the patented invention.     

Impact of RMB Appreciation on Trade and Labor Markets of China and the USA： A Multi-country Comparative General Equilibrium Model

Since the recent economic crisis, the undervaluation of China's exchange rate has been a focus in the debate on the global policy mix. Using a non‐competitive input–output table, we establish a comparative‐static general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of real exchange rate changes on Sino–US trade and labor markets. The simulation shows that the impacts of a 10‐percent RMB revaluation on the trade surplus of China and the labor market of the USA are more modest than is generally perceived, and the negative impact on the output of the non‐processing industry in China is more significant than that on the processing industry. The Sino–US trade imbalance will continue to deteriorate, China's non‐processing trade surplus will decline and the processing trade will increase, with the combined effect being small. For the USA, labor‐intensive goods imported from China will shift to different Asian countries instead of transferring back to the US market. The simulation results indicate that the impacts of an RMB revaluation on both Chinese and US labor markets would be limited.     

Adaptable and sustainable? Male farm service and the agricultural labour force in midland and southern England,c.1850–19251

This article argues that farm service was an adaptable and sustainable system of hiring labour in areas of midland and southern England after 1850, having much in common with the model recently identified for northern England and Scotland. Analysing the Census Enumerators Books from selected parishes in seven counties in 1851, 1871, and 1891, we reveal an intricate pattern of farm service ‘survival’ both within and between counties. We then use a range of reports printed between the 1860s and 1920s to examine the national picture. The later regional persistence of farm service has implications for broader debates on the rural workforce and social relations.     

Politics and economic theory in allied planning for peace, 1944–1945

Abstract

At the beginning of June 1919, a member of the British Delegation at the Paris Peace Conference, the young John Maynard Keynes, gave up hope of anyone listening to his views which were based on economic theory, or to his call for a sensible revision of the peace terms.