The Political Economy of Economic Reforms in Argentina

In 1989, Argentina entered a process of sweeping transformation of its economic institutions which provided for the (temporary) recovery of economic growth and the taming of inflation. The Argentine experience with market-oriented reforms has been regarded by the literature as a salient case of radical and 'unconstrained' reform. Yet, a closer scrutiny portrays that the building and maintenance of a pro-"reform coalition determined the pace, depth and characteristics of the 'new economic institutions'. The idiosyncrasies of Argentina's political institutions, in turn, conditioned this coalition-building strategy. The same idiosyncrasies were at play in the 2001/2002 collapse of the convertibility regime and ensuing social and political chaos.     

The Political Economy of India's Economic Reforms*

This paper analyzes the history of the relationship between the state and the private sector in India. It concludes that India's economic reforms, which made development policy more dependent on international trade and private initiative, depended on the evolution of technocratic and political conviction. Reformers needed the support of financial crises for overcoming the powerful vested interests opposed to reforms. Successful reforms involved largely homegrown strategies of policy and institutional change. They have produced impressive growth rates and have benefited the rich and the middle class. The challenge for development and sustainable reforms is to make it more inclusive for poor farmers and unorganized workers.     

The Impact of 2007/08 Financial Crisis on the Stability and Enlargement of the EMU

Before 2007/08, the European Monetary Union (EMU) was expected to be enlarged on schedule, but the European sovereign debt problem, triggered by the exogenous US sub‐prime crisis, not only has revealed the EMU's fiscal coordination failure, but also has weakened regional financial integration. The stagnation of financial integration will therefore increase the cost of sustaining a monetary union, which in turn slows EMU enlargement and ruins the reputation of the euro. This paper aims to measure the damage to financial integration and to provide a more precise answer on real interest rate parity (RIP) convergence. Our estimation indicates that RIP between the EMU and some accession candidates is still valid after the interruptions of the financial crises. However, convergence of real interest rates cannot be achieved until 2030. This implies the EMU authority must strengthen regional financial integration to solidify the EMU and then be able to re‐start enlargement.     

Capital Controls: a Political Economy Approach

The paper examines the economic consequences of political conflicts that arise when countries implement capital controls. In an overlapping‐generations model, agents vote on whether to open or close an economy to capital flows. The young (workers) receive income only from wages while the old (capitalists) receive income only from savings. The authors characterize the set of stationary equilibria for an infinite‐horizon game. Assuming dynamic efficiency, when the median representative is a worker (capitalist), capital‐importing countries will open (close) while capital‐exporting countries will close (open). These predicted patterns are consistent with data on liberalization policies over time and across various countries.     

The Political Economy of Social Pacts in the EMU: Irish Liberal Market Corporatism in Crisis

The economic crisis is a collective action problem. In the absence of currency devaluations, eurozone governments are faced with the painful social process of wage devaluations. This paper examines the strategic choices facing the government and organised labour in how they respond to this problem. It will argue that the European Monetary Union contains an implicit neoclassical assumption that labour markets will automatically adjust to downward wage flexibility. This ignores the politics of collective bargaining. Labour relations systems are the most regulated of all markets. Based on this institutional embeddedness, the paper will outline a typology of political choices facing national governments: neoliberal market adjustment, national or sectoral concertation and euro-coordination. Institutional pre-conditions of collective bargaining mediate what strategy governments adopt. It will subsequently examine the case of Ireland that tried and failed to negotiate a national pact in 2009. Social partnership was a central institution of Ireland's political economy for 20 years but could not internalise the adjustment constraints of the current crisis. The voluntary and exclusive nature of Ireland's corporatist wage pacts weakened the power resources of labour and enabled the government to pursue a neoliberal strategy of adjustment. As an institution, it was dependent upon the political executive of the state.     

Ecological Political Economy: Towards a Strategic-Relational Approach

This article identifies three distinct traditions in what might be described as ‘ecological political economy’. First, a ‘Promethean’ approach posits that capitalism has a relentless drive towards growth and bears responsibility for the wholesale transformation of nature. Second, critics of sustainable capitalism acknowledge the possibility of capitalist futures with a better management of natural resources and carbon emissions. The Strategic Relational Approach, developed by Bob Jessop and Ngai-Ling Sum, points to a unique third type of ecological political economy. Each approach is shown to have distinct views concerning the commodification of nature, the role of the state and ways to understand ecological and social transitions. The Strategic Relational Approach points to the possibility of counter-hegemonic strategies and collective mobilization to transform the state and so redirect, control and contain capitalist relations with nature.     

结构性冲击对中国经济的影响——兼论新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响

传染性疾病作为一种短暂而剧烈的结构性冲击对中国经济的影响以及政策选择因全球爆发的新冠肺炎疫情受到广泛关注.基于包含上下游生产结构、不同类型企业以及异质性金融摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型的研究发现,疫情冲击是对供给与需求同时产生影响的综合冲击,这一特征对评估其经济影响非常重要,并能解释疫情以来中国消费下滑幅度大于生产投资且恢复较慢的特征事实.结构性减税政策对经济的稳定效果显著优于宽松货币政策且福利损失更小,但两种政策组合使用可以带来更好的福利结果.这是因为货币扩张在稳定需求的同时恶化了信贷资源错配,结构性减税则部分纠正了信贷错配,而政策组合使用能充分发挥两种政策的优势.     

Income Taxation and the Diversity of Consumer Goods: A Political Economy Approach*

After‐tax income inequality has risen since the mid‐1990s, as increases in market income inequality have not been offset by greater fiscal redistribution. We argue that the substantial increase in the diversity of consumer goods has mitigated mounting political pressures for redistribution. Within a probabilistic voting framework, we demonstrate that if the share of diversified goods in the consumption bundle increases sufficiently with income, then an increase in goods diversity can reduce the political equilibrium tax rate. Focusing on OECD countries, we find empirical support for both the model's micro‐political foundations and the implied relation between goods diversity and fiscal policy outcomes.     

A New Approach to Identifying Structural Development in Economic Systems: The Case of the Queensland Economy

Recently, some economists have come to view economic development as a process of ongoing structural change which has self-organisational features. What is required is evidence concerning the self-organisational character of economic development. In other words, is economic growth associated with growth in the complexity of its structure and with a parallel rise in organisational interdependence? An extended version of qualitative input-output analysis, termed Minimal Flow Analysis (MFA), is used in this paper to analyse the structural linkages and changes that have occurred in the Queensland economy over the last two decades. The MFA evidence confirms that there has been a steady increase in the complexity of the Queensland economy. Economic coordination has occurred, to an increasing extent, through market intermediation. From a self-organisational perspective, it is clear that the Queensland economy has followed a rapid and coherent developmental path, marked by the emergence of bonded structures in its core and increasing complexity on its periphery.     

东扩对中国欧盟贸易发展的影响与对策

新入盟的中东欧新成员国与中国经济发展水平相近,产业结构类似,同中国在贸易领域具有较大的竞争性,东扩成为影响中欧贸易的重大事件.本文对东扩之后中欧贸易的发展分别进行了理论和实证分析,认为尽管理论分析的结果不容乐观,但是实际上由于诸多因素的共同作用.东扩之后中欧贸易仍然保持了良好的发展势头.本文还对东扩对中欧贸易的负面影响、进行分析,提出必须要高度重视这些负面影响,并对东扩后中欧贸易发展提出了针对性的对策建议.     

The Political Economy of IMF Conditionality: A Common Agency Model

The paper models the relationship between an aid‐providing international financial institution (IFI) and an aid‐receiving government whose economic policy choices are influenced by a domestic interest group. Two assistance schemes are evaluated: conditional aid in which the IFI makes assistance contingent on less‐ distorting economic policies and unconditional aid which is provided without such conditions. Conditional aid is shown to raise welfare of the receiving country and the world as a whole relative to unconditional aid. The paper also examines how conditional and unconditional aid schemes are influenced by the IFI's opportunity cost of providing assistance and the receiving government's political dependence on a domestic interest group.