刍议缓解人民币升值压力的对策

自1999年4月国际货币基金组织正式将人民币汇率制度列为“传统盯住汇率制”以来,人民币由于我国国际收支的持续顺差一直面临升值的压力。2002年12月日本提出人民币升值问题,西方主要发达国家先后加入这一行列。人民币继亚洲金融危机后再次被推向世界经济的风头浪尖。本文尝试从人民币面临升值的缘由与困境方面解释我国现行的人民币汇率政策。     

对人民币升值问题的几点思考

自金融危机后,国际经济恢复缓慢,但中国经济逆势而升,始终保持着较快得增长,吸引了世界的目光。相应地,人民币是否升值也是这几年的热门话题,一方面世界上许多国家要求人民币升值;另一方面,在中国国内,对于人民币是否升值也是意见不一。但不可否认的是,这几年,人民币呈现明显的升值趋势,着实影响到了我国经济社会的发展。本文以人民币汇率为主要内容,通过回顾中国汇率制度的演变,结合当下的经济状况,探讨人民币的升值压力以及升值后带来的短期长期影响。     

人民币汇率波澜再起——人民币又临升值季

中国经济的高速增长，使得人民币汇率总是逃不过世界关注的目光。2009年中国经济较快克服金融危机冲击实现8．7％的增长，在全世界一枝独秀，2010年继续巩固复苏趋势，经济增长率将高于2009年。以美国为代表的发达经济体为了促进本国出口、增加就业，要求人民币升值的呼声再现。人民币升值压力正在不断增加。     

人民币汇率波澜再起

<正>中国经济的高速增长,使得人民币汇率总是逃不过世界关注的目光。2009年中国经济较快克服金融危机冲击实现8.7%的增长,在全世界一枝独秀,2010年继续巩固复苏趋势,经济增长率将高于2009年。以美国为代表的发达经济体为了促进本国出口、增加就业,要求人民币升值的呼声再现。人民币升值压力正在不断增加。     

人民币汇率与市场环境分析

中国人民币汇率徘徊在6.28左右。美国经济复苏的步伐缓慢。美国时不时会对中国施加压力,指控中国政府操纵汇率。中国汇率升值预期过高的基本原因是货币性的,而实际上实体经济层面升值压力并不大,人民币将会在双向波动、小幅升值过程中保持相对稳定,并在适当时机适度扩大浮动区间。当前,汇率对世界贸易基本格局的影响已经弱化,不能依赖汇率自发调整贸易失衡。中国应强化内需主导战略,与亚洲国家一起在经济和货币上逐步摆脱对美国的过度依赖。     

金融危机下人民币汇率形成机制研究

2008年的金融危机让世界经济发生了翻天覆地的变化,对于中国来说,人民币汇率受到的冲击是十分明显的.人民币汇率自2005年汇改以来到2008年的三年多时间里,一直都是保持着强劲的升值趋势,累计升值幅度超过了20％.然而,由于美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机使得与世界逐步接轨的中国受到的波及,种种迹象显示,这次金融危机带来的影响使我国经济发展速度放缓、企业利润下滑、通胀压力回落、贸易顺差收窄——这一形式似乎也打断了人民币此前的升值步伐,人民币开始有了贬值的危险.数据显示,自2008年7月中旬以来,人民币对美元汇率一直维持震荡格局,甚至还出现过连续的小幅度贬值.     

浅析中国汇率政策问题

中国汇率升值预期过高的基本原因是货币性的,而实际上实体经济层面升值压力并不大,人民币将会在双向波动、小幅升值过程中保持相对稳定,并在适当时机适度扩大浮动区间.当前,汇率对世界贸易基本格局的影响已经弱化,不能依赖汇率自发调整贸易失衡.中国应强化内需主导战略,与亚洲国家一起在经济和货币上,逐步摆脱对美国的过度依赖.     

人民币升值对中国和世界经济影响分析

针对目前国内外学术界、政界和媒体争论较多的“人民币升值论”，本文在深入评析人民币出现升值压力原因的基础上，从正反两方面探讨人民币升值对中国经济的影响，并进一步阐述了对世界，特别是美国、日本和亚洲经济的负面影响，为今后人民币汇率体制改革提出了合理的建议。     

走出人民币升值的误区

最近,国际上要求人民币升值的声音甚嚣尘上,日本、美国和欧洲联合起来向人民币施加压力。 1997年亚洲金融危机中,中国政府坚持人民币不贬值,中国保持汇率稳定在国际上带来的掌声犹然在耳,但时过境迁,现在笼罩在人民币周围的却是不断要求其升值的声音。     

国际货币体系失衡下的中国汇率政策

中国汇率升值预期过高的基本原因是货币性的,而实际上实体经济层面升值压力并不大。人民币将会在双向波动、小幅升值过程中保持相对稳定,并在适当时机适度扩大浮动区间。当前,汇率对世界贸易基本格局的影响已经弱化,不能依赖汇率自发调整贸易失衡。中美应加强合作,共同进行经济结构调整。中国应强化内需主导战略,与亚洲国家一起在经济和货币上,逐步摆脱对美国的过度依赖。     

Health, Wealth, Fertility, Education, and Inequality

The authors use a new cross-country dataset to estimate the strength of the links between different dimensions of social and economic development, including indicators of health, fertility, and education, as well as material wellbeing. This differs from previous studies in employing data for different income groups in each country in order to provide direct evidence on factors driving inequality, and in using a unique measure of material wellbeing that does not rely on PPP comparisons.     

Inflation,money, interest rate,exchange rate,and casuality: the case of Egypt,Morocco, and Tunisia

This study provides further evidence of the inflationary efects of the rates of growth of money supply, gross domestic product, efective exchange rate, and imported inflation for Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia using quarterly data from 1964 to 1990. In addition, it examines the Granger causality between inflation and money supply as well as between inflation and the real exchange rate in the countries under consideration. Most of the results are consistent with extant theory and empirical evidence.     

IPR,Trade, FDI,and Technology Transfer

In this survey, we discuss how intellectual property rights （IPR） protection in the South affects trade flows, foreign direct investment （FDI） flows, and technology transfers from the North to the South. We also discuss optimal IPR policies and their effect on innovation. Our discussion covers both theoretical studies and empirical evidence. This survey is both comprehensive and critical. It aims to give readers the current state of IPR and globalization literature. Some issues have been studied more thoroughly, whereas for others the surface has only been scratched upon. This survey gives readers a clearer picture of the literature and may help them find future research topics.     

Trade,Remittances, Institutions,and Economic Growth

This paper empirically investigates the role of trade, remittances, and institutions in economic development in a large sample of developing countries using recently developed instruments for all these variables. Both cross-country (over 30 years) and dynamic panel data (over 5-year periods) regressions of growth rates on instrumented trade, remittances, and institutions provide evidence of a significant impact of trade, institutions, and remittances on growth. While institutions foster growth, remittances hamper it. The effect of trade on growth is positive in cross-sectional regressions but ambiguous in dynamic panel data regressions. These results are indicative of a more important role for trade in explaining growth in the very long run compared with over shorter horizons.     

Ageing,government budgets,retirement, and growth

We analyze the short and long-run effects of demographic ageing – increased longevity and reduced fertility – on per-capita growth. The OLG model captures direct effects, working through adjustments in the savings rate, labor supply, and capital deepening, and indirect effects, working through changes of taxes, government spending components and the retirement age in politico-economic equilibrium. Growth is driven by capital accumulation and productivity increases fueled by public investment. The closed-form solutions of the model predict taxation and the retirement age in OECD economies to increase in response to demographic ageing and per-capita growth to accelerate. If the retirement age was held constant, the growth rate in politico-economic equilibrium would essentially remain unchanged, due to a surge of social-security transfers and crowding out of public investment.