Fiscal policy and indeterminacy in models of endogenous growth

This paper investigates the dynamic behavior of two-sector models of endogenous growth with sector-specific external effects, and government expenditure financed by distortionary taxation. When this type of external effect is combined with a sufficient degree of capital taxation in a Lucas-Uzawa endogenous growth model, continua of equilibria will emerge in the region of the balanced growth paths. By contrast, indeterminacy is not possible when either sector-specific external effects or factor taxation are added to the model in isolation. In the second part of the paper, we demonstrate that if labor supply is endogenous, indeterminacy can be consistent with much lower degrees of increasing returns to scale. Furthermore, certain types of fiscal policy will be associated with multiple balanced growth paths and the existence of a poverty trap. Finally, in the last part of the paper, we demonstrate that if physical capital is employed in both sectors of the economy, indeterminacy will emerge for varying combinations of factor taxation and external effects, even when returns to scale are constant at the social level.     

Contagion of the Global Financial Crisis and the real economy: A regional analysis

This paper investigates the contagion effects of the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009) by examining ten sectors in six developed and emerging regions during different phases of the crisis. The analysis tests different channels of financial contagion across regions and real economy sectors by utilizing dynamic conditional correlation from the multivariate Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH (FIAPARCH) model. Evidence shows that the GFC can be characterized by contagion effects across regional stock markets and regional financial and non-financial sectors.However, Developed Pacific region and some sectors in particular Consumer Goods, Healthcare and Technology across all regions seem to be less affected by the crisis, while the most vulnerable sectors are observed in the emerging Asian and European regions. Further, the analysis on a crisis phase level indicates that the most severe contagion effects exist after the failure of Lehman Brothers limiting the effectiveness of portfolio diversification.     

Regional and sectoral dynamics of the Dutch staffing labor cycle

This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of staffing employment across different business sectors and across different geographical regions in The Netherlands. We analyze a micro data set of the market leader of the Dutch staffing employment market, i.e. Randstad. We apply the dynamic factor model to extract common information out of a large data set and to isolate business cycle frequencies with the aim of forecasting staffing and total employment. We identify regions and sectors whose cyclical developments lead the staffing labor cycle at the country level. The dynamic factor model exploits these leading characteristics at the disaggregate level to forecast the country aggregate. Finally, both dynamic and static factors turn out to be predictive summary statistics of the micro data set when employed to forecast total employment at the country level.     

Fiscal Spending,Relative‐Price Dynamics,and Welfare in a World Economy*

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin model where foreign asset holdings and capital accumulation are independently determined by optimizing agents. Each country has two production sectors, both of whose products are used for consumption, and an investment sector, which uses one of the two commodities to accumulate real capital. In this setting we examine the effects of fiscal spending on the equilibrium paths of interest rates and prices and each country's lifetime utility. The welfare effect is found to consist of the static terms‐of‐trade effect, the dynamic foreign asset effect and the direct income‐loss effect.     

A dynamic two country Heckscher–Ohlin model with non-homothetic preferences

We examine the properties of a two-country dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model that allows for preferences to be non-homothetic. We show that the model has a continuum of steady state equilibria under free trade, with the initial conditions determining which equilibrium will be attained. We establish conditions under which a static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem will hold in the steady state, and also conditions for a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem to hold. If both goods are normal, each country will have a unique autarkic steady state, and all steady state equilibria are saddle points. We also consider the case in which one good is inferior, and show that this can lead to multiple autarkic steady states, violations of the static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem in the steady state. Furthermore, there may exist steady state equilibria that Pareto dominate other steady states. These steady states will be unstable if discount factors are the same in each country, although they may exhibit dynamic indeterminacy if discount factors differ.     

Portfolio optimization using dynamic factor and stochastic volatility: evidence on Fat‐tailed errors and leverage

The portfolio optimization problem is investigated using a multivariate stochastic volatility model with factor dynamics, fat‐tailed errors and leverage effects. The efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate model parameters, and the Rao–Blackwellized auxiliary particle filter is used to compute the likelihood and to predict conditional means and covariances. The proposed models are applied to sector indices of the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX), which consists of 33 stock market indices classified by industrial sectors. The portfolio is dynamically optimized under several expected utilities and two additional static strategies are considered as benchmarks. An extensive empirical study indicates that our proposed dynamic factor model with leverage or fat‐tailed errors significantly improves the predictions of the conditional mean and covariances, as well as various measures of portfolio performance.     

Patent law and complementary innovations

This paper explores which patent policy should be applied to complementary innovations that are aggregated into broader technologies. I compare a setting in which complementary innovations must be bundled prior to patenting, with a second setting in which they can be patented separately. The first setting can improve static efficiency by avoiding the costs resulting from the scattering of complementary patents. But it also limits the disclosure of small innovations, which may lead to inefficient R&D cost duplications. A model capturing these effects shows that patenting complementary innovations separately is not efficient when innovations can be developed rapidly. This result justifies the enforcement of a severe “inventive step” or “non-obviousness” requirement in sectors where complementary innovations are frequent.     

A four-sector macroeconometric model for Greece and the evaluation of the community support framework 1994–1999

This paper describes a macroeconometric model for Greece and its use for the evaluation of the effects that investment inflows from European Union in the form of the Community Support Framework (CSF) might have on the economy. The model consists of four sectors of economic activity, namely those of traded and non-traded goods, the public and agricultural sectors, and includes a detailed system of price formation, wage setting and public finances. The model is subjected to a number of stylised shocks in domestic and international variables, so that the dynamic properties and multipliers can be analysed. The evaluation of likely CSF effects is conducted by first constructing a benchmark forecast until 2010 and then assess the impact of CSF actions. CSF flows cause both a rise in total demand and in domestic supply through positive supply-side externalities and the evaluation distinguishes between a very low and a full degree of utilising the plausible opportunities. The universal conclusion is that, in the absence of externalities, CSF actions produce only a temporary rise in activity and employment. After the period of inflows expires, the economy will return to the course that would have been the case without the funds. However, if externalities are assumed to operate even at a moderate scale, the picture changes starkly: output, productivity, employment and the exporting capacity of the country improve significantly.     

Offshoring and product innovation

We propose an endogenous growth model with offshoring to investigate its effects on product innovation and growth in the country of origin. Offshoring is associated with reduced feedback from offshored plants to domestic labs as well as coordination problems between the offshored and domestic divisions of firms. Production and transport cost parameters affect the static decision to relocate plants but not R&D. Hence, offshoring may be chosen by firms when it damages the growth rate of their countries of origin. In particular, if offshoring reduces the feedback from plants to labs, it is likely to bring dynamic losses when the countries of origin are large, especially in sectors in which R&D is cheap and product differentiation is strong. It is also likely to slow growth in sectors in which contractual incompleteness gives a strong bargaining power to offshored divisions in intra-firm transactions. We thank Thierry Verdier, an anonymous referee and participants to the Final Conference of the EU funded Research Training Network “Trade, Industrialisation and Development”, held at Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques on 26–27 October 2006, for helpful comments. The second author gratefully acknowledges financial support from MIUR.     

Error correction modelling and dynamic specifications as a conduit to outperforming the random walk in exchange rate forecasting

The proposition that dynamic exchange rate models can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting, in the sense that they produce lower mean square errors, is examined and disputed. By using several dynamic versions of three macroeconomic exchange rate models, it is demonstrated that dynamic specifications outperform the corresponding static models but improvement in the forecasting power may not be sufficient for the dynamic models to perform better than the random walk. The results are explained by suggesting that any dynamic specification or transformation of the static model leads to the introduction of a lagged dependent variable, which in effect is a random walk component. The analysis leads to the conclusion that it is implausible to aim at beating the random walk by augmenting a static model with a random walk component.     

Scale and structure in economic modelling

In this paper an attempt is made to put together, within the same model, the supply and the demand side of the economic process. This is done by integrating the progress attained in two fields which have traditionally been considered separate: the input-output approach and the macroeconometric final demand approach. The composition of each traditional macroeconomic variable, determined within the model, is analysed into the functional headings which are peculiar for each variable (family budgets headings for personal consumption expenditures, investing sectors for investments, I-O sectors for output and so on). We can then identify for each variable a scale component - absolute level of the aggregated variable - and a structure component - its inner composition - which are mutually consistent. Two types of applications of the same model are then compared: simulation, where the parametric set is used to obtain the dynamic path of a specific scenario; and integrated impact multiplier analysis where scale and structure effects are evaluated with reference to all the potential behaviour of the system.     

The economic and trade effects of the UK–Korea free trade agreement on the United Kingdom,Korea, Japan,China, and the European Union

We explored a comparative static computable general equilibrium model with six regions and 12 sectors to estimate the impacts of the recent UK–Korea free trade agreement (FTA) along with the European Union (EU)–Korea FTA. The empirical results provide quantitative evidence of the impact on national GDP, national exports and imports by sector, and the changes in exports or imports among the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the EU. The UK–Korea FTA, along with the EU–Korea FTA, increases GDP and welfare for the United Kingdom and Korea; moreover, there is a large increase in automobiles, transport equipment, and machinery exports between Korea and the United Kingdom. The GDP and welfare level of non-member countries such as Japan and China will slightly decline. Exports from the United Kingdom and Korea to non-member countries are also expected to decrease in most manufacturing sectors. The UK–Korea FTA will lead to increases in imports between the United Kingdom and Korea due to mutual trade creation effects and trade diversion effects. However, non-member countries such as Japan's exports are expected to experience a large decline in automobiles to the United Kingdom and in most manufacturing products to Korea due to the negative impact of the UK–Korea FTA.     

Amenity driven price effects and conservation reserve site selection: A dynamic linear integer programming approach

Most conservation reserve design models presented in the literature are static and ignore the dynamic economic aspects of site selection. Typically conservation programs operate under time-related (e.g. annual) budgets and purchase land over time in a sequential manner. The uncertainty of land development has been incorporated in a few dynamic reserve selection formulations using stochastic dynamic programming. However, the existing formulations do not explicitly deal with inter-temporal price and location linkages. We address this issue here and present a two-period linear integer programming model for conservation reserve design that incorporates amenity driven price feedback effects inherent in the reserve development problem. In addition, the model includes spatial and ecological criteria. We then use this model to answer the question “How suboptimal is ignoring amenity driven price effects in reserve design models?” We apply the model to artificially generated data sets and compare the results with the results of an iterated static model that considers only one period at a time. We find that the dynamic model with price feedback effects selects sites at a lower per-site cost. The policy implication of this finding is that conservation programs should avoid purchasing land in the same neighborhood over multiple time periods.     

Individual incentives in the supply of public inputs

The free-rider hypothesis states that, in the decision on public-goods and private-good provision, individual incentives are such that public goods will tend to be undersupplied. This paper examines the free-rider argument as it applies to public intermediate goods. It is shown that, unlike in a static model, in a dynamic world there may exist incentives for firms to act cooperatively in determining the supply of public intermediate goods. In a dynamic context there is a cost to free riding: what one firm does now affects what others will do in the future. Provided future profits are not discounted too heavily, the free-rider problem may disappear when a time dimension is added to the theory.     

Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models

This paper extends probit recession forecasting models by incorporating various recession risk factors and using the advanced dynamic probit modeling approaches. The proposed risk factors include financial market expectations of a gloomy economic outlook, credit or liquidity risks in the general economy, the risks of negative wealth effects resulting from the bursting of asset price bubbles, and signs of deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals. The model specifications include three different dynamic probit models and the standard static model. The out-of-sample analysis suggests that the four probit models with the proposed risk factors can generate more accurate forecasts for the duration of recessions than the conventional static models with only yield spread and equity price index as the predictors. Among the four probit models, the dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models outperform the static and autoregressive models in terms of predicting the recession duration. With respect to forecasting the business cycle turning points, the static probit model is as good as the dynamic probit models by being able to flag an early warning signal of a recession.     

The effects on agriculture in the United States of an oil import fee

This paper focuses on the effect that a crude oil import fee would have on the various producing sectors, consuming sectors and household categories in the United States where the interrelationships between these entities is explicitly considered. Special attention is given to the agricultural sectors of the economy. Thus, in the context of a general equilibrium model, the effect of a $5.00 per barrel import fee on the producing sectors in general and the three agricultural sectors plus forestry in particular, on the consuming sectors, on households and on the government is calculated. Over the period 1984–90 with such an import fee (relative to the absence of a crude–oil import fee), the model results suggest that there will be a reduction in output by all producing sectors (except the crude-oil industry) by about $13,924 billion, there will be a fall in the consumption of goods and services by about $318 million and there will be a decline in aggregate social welfare (measured as utility) by about $208 mill ion. The government will realize an increase in revenue of about $3,622 billion. The agricultural sectors in the aggregate can expect to see a fall in output of $769 million with an attendant increase in the price of its goods as a consequence of the oil import fee.     

Wage-setting coordination in a small open economy*

This paper studies wage-setting coordination in a two-sector, open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Two large sectoral unions anticipate the effects of their wage demands on aggregate variables. In an open economy, there are externalities that the unions can take into account to increase aggregate welfare, but the strategic interaction between the sectoral unions tends to erode this gain. When wage coordination takes place through a wage norm set by either of the sectors, this minimizes the strategic interaction. However, wage norms create welfare losses as sector-specific wage adjustment is required to make an efficient adjustment to shocks.     

Plant location and strategic environmental policy with inter-sectoral linkages

In recent debates on trade liberalisation the concern has often been expressed that with more competitive international trade governments will be worried that by setting tougher environmental policies than their trading rivals they will put domestic producers at a competitive disadvantage, and in the extreme case this could lead to firms relocating production in other countries. The response by governments to such concerns will be to weaken environmental policies (‘eco-dumping’). In competitive markets such concerns are ill founded, but there is a small amount of literature which has analysed whether governments will indeed have incentives for eco-dumping in the more relevant case of markets where there are significant scale economies; even here there is no presumption that the outcome will involve eco-dumping.In this paper we extend the analysis of strategic environmental policy and plant location decisions by analysing the location decision of firms in different sectors which are linked through an input-output structure of intermediate production. The reason why we introduce inter-sectoral linkages between firms is that they introduce an additional factor, relative to those already analysed in the literature, in the plant location decision, which is the incentive for firms in different sectors to agglomerate in a single location. This has a number of important effects. First, there is now the possibility of multiple equilibria in location decisions of firms. Following from this there is the possibility of catastrophic effects where a small increase in an environmental tax can trigger the collapse of an industrial base in a country; however there is also the possibility that a country which raises its environmental tax could attract more firms to locate in that country, because of the way the tax affects incentives for agglomeration. Finally, and again related to the previous effects, there is the possibility of a hysteresis effect where raising an environmental tax in one country can cause firms to relocate to another country, but subsequently lowering that tax will not induce firms to relocate back into the original country.We consider a simple model with two countries, two industries, an upstream and a downstream sector, and two firms per industry. The analysis proceeds through a three-stage game: in the first stage the governments of the two countries set their environmental policies; in the second stage the firms in both industries choose how many plants to locate and where; in the third stage firms choose their output levels, with the demand for the upstream firms being determined endogenously by the production decisions of the downstream firms. We assume that there are no limits to production capacity, so that firms do not build more than one plant in any country. However, firms may build plants in different countries because of positive transport costs. Although the model appears very simple, it cannot be solved analytically, so all the conclusions must be drawn from numerical simulations.     

非对称信息条件下技术转移的成本分析

分析了非对称信息条件下静态技术的转移模式及其成本约束.在此基础上,通过对影响技术转移活动各种成本的动态分析,探讨了多主体参与时动态技术转移的成本约束及缓解约束的条件,进而提出促进技术转移顺利实施的几点措施.     

Capital taxation in a dynamic general equilibrium setting

The familiar two-factor, two-commodity incidence model is extended to a dynamic setting in which the supply of capital is variable and the government can use money or bonds to balance its budget in addition to neutral lump sum taxation. The dynamic incidence effects of a sectoral tax on capital are qualitatively similar to the static incidence effects when the government balances its budget with neutral taxes, but are qualitatively different when the government uses money or bonds. In this case, while capital bears the burden of the tax in the short run, it is able to shift it in the long run.