Spillover effects of FDI inflows on output growth: An analysis of aggregate and disaggregated FDI inflows of 13 MENA economies

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on overall growth, as well as its sector-specific spillovers in the Middle Eastern and North African region during the period from 2000 to 2020. Our major innovation is our ability to disaggregate FDI into primary, secondary and tertiary and examine their individual impact on growth, as well as their sector-specific spillovers by using dynamic panel GMM methodology. We find prima facie evidence that total FDI significantly stimulates growth. However, when we turn to the disaggregated FDI data, primary sector FDI adversely affects the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the service sector and overall GDP growth. On the other hand, secondary FDI has a ‘double-edged’ effect, benefiting its own sector (the service sector's GDP growth), but not other sectors. In contrast, service sector FDI stimulates GDP growth in mining, manufacturing and service sectors, thereby enhancing overall economic growth. Our findings have important policy implications regarding the incentives provided by governments to encourage FDI, which need to be fine-tuned to attract certain types of FDI (tertiary), with less focus on the primary sector     

不同教育水平对全要素生产率增长的影响——来自中国省份的实证研究

本文计算了从1993年到2001年间中国29个省份的生产率增长数据的曼奎斯特指数，然后通过面板数据计量经济模型研究了不同教育水平对技术效率的影响。我们的结果显示，大学教育对效率改善和技术进步都具有有利影响，而中小学教育对于效率改善具有不利影响；而且，大学教育对效率改善的有利影响是通过具有大学教育水平的劳动者向更有效率的非国有企业再分配实现的。     

Long-run sectoral development: Time-series evidence for the German economy

In economic development, long-run structural change among the three main sectors of an economy follows a typical pattern with the primary sector (agriculture, mining) first dominating, followed by the secondary sector (manufacturing) and finally by the tertiary sector (services) in terms of employment and value added. We reconsider the verbal theoretical work of Fourastié and build a simple model encompassing its main features, most notably the macroeconomic influences on the sectoral development. Estimation and analysis with German data for the period 1850–2001 show that this model is quite capable of replicating the empirical facts.     

Inflation Dynamics in India: Relative Role of Structural and Monetary Factors

This paper examines the relative role of structural and monetary factors in the variation of inflation in India over the period 1996–1997:Q1 to 2013–2014:Q4. The paper finds that both the monetary factors and the output gap has significant role. The role of the output gap in inflation is found more prominent than the monetary factors like broad money growth, interest rate and change in exchange rate. The depreciation of exchange rate and broad money growth stimulates inflation where as the interest rate is identified as an anti-inflationary monetary instrument. In view of a comprehensive policy for price stability, it is imperative to know the role of sectoral output gap in inflation. The paper, therefore, enquires the relative role of the primary, secondary and tertiary sector output gap in inflation. Output gap of each of these three sectors provokes inflation where the contribution of tertiary sector output gap is found to be the maximum followed by the primary sector and the secondary sector output gap. The prominent role of the output gap and comparatively passive role of monetary factors does not necessarily imply a non-effective monetary policy but suggests that controlling inflation only through the monetary management may not be effective.

     

Hotelling and recycling

We study the exploitation of recyclable exhaustible resources such as metals that are crucial for the energy transition or phosphorus that is crucial for agricultural production. We use a standard Hotelling model of resource exploitation that includes a primary sector and a recycling sector. We study two polar cases: competitive and monopolistic extraction. We show that, when the primary sector is competitive, the Hotelling’s rule holds and the price of the recyclable resource increases over time. We then show a new reason why the price of an exhaustible resource may decrease: when the primary sector is monopolistic, the primary producer has incentives to delay its production activities in order to delay recycling. As a consequence, the price path of the recyclable resource may be U-shaped. Numerical simulations reveal that the monopolist has an incentive to delay extraction when the recoverability rate is high (because more recycled goods are produced) or when the recoverability rate is low (when fewer recycled goods are expected to be produced in the future). As a consequence, the date of exhaustion of the virgin resource is further away in time for high and low levels of recoverability than for intermediate levels.     

Labour misallocation in China: 1980–2010

This article measures labour misallocation in Chinese provinces over the period 1980–2010 and investigates possible causal factors of the misallocation. It finds that: (1) labour misallocation fell substantially in the first half of 1980s, but there was no monotonic trend of improvement since then. (2) Wage differentials cross primary, secondary and tertiary sectors accounted for a substantial portion of measured overall labour misallocation; the secondary sector’s wage deviations from value of the marginal product of labour (VMPL) also contributed to labour misallocation. (3) There was persistence in labour misallocation, but a higher level of urbanization, the development of the tertiary sector, increasing trade openness and the growth of the nonstate sector appear to have contributed to more efficient labour allocation.     

The Effect of the Quasi–market on the Efficiency–equity Trade–off in the Secondary School Sector

Britain’s education system was radically transformed during the 1990s following the Education Reform Act (1988). The primary objective of these reforms was to raise educational standards through the creation of a quasi–market based upon greater parental choice and the transfer of control over resources from local education authorities to schools. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of the quasi–market on efficiency and equity in the secondary education sector in England during the 1990s. Two primary questions are addressed. Has the quasi–market led to an improvement in efficiency in the secondary education sector? Has the quasi–market had any adverse consequences on the social segregation of pupils between schools? Using data obtained from the Schools’ Census and the School Performance Tables, we find strong evidence that the quasi–market has led to a substantial improvement in efficiency (as measured by a school’s exam performance and by the productivity of staff) during the 1990s. The same market forces have led to a greater social segregation of pupils between schools.     

Ownership relations in the presence of cross-shareholding

The direct ownership structure in a sector can be readily obtained from data on shareholding. Due to cross-shareholding, however, the true ownership structure may be hidden by a complex network of indirect relations. In studying the property structure, two important aspects are the size of the relations between primary owners (e.g. individuals) and secondary owners (e.g. companies), and the distance between them. The distance is obtained from the average number of secondary owners via whom the relation runs. As an empirical application, we study the banking sector in the Czech Republic, where also the relation between distance and separation of dividend and control rights is discussed.      

城市绿色隔离地区规划策略研究 ——以石家庄为例

在快速城市化进程中,中心城区向外迅速扩展,大城市绿色隔离地区不断遭到蚕食,对城市的生态环境构成威胁,亟须对绿色隔离地区的规划建设进行有效控制。运用生态空间效能分析、建设用地蔓延分析、生态敏感性分析、产业适宜性分析和村庄布点因子分析等方法,以石家庄绿色隔离地区为例,分析其现状特征及问题,从地价差异、收入差距、管理权限等方面揭示其空间演变动因,提出分级分类分区的空间管控、优先保育自然生态、“调一限二兴三”的产业发展,以及集中集聚调整村庄布点的规划策略,以期有益于中国大城市绿色隔离地区的规划建设。     

Economic impact of ocean fish populations in the global fishery

Our goal in this paper is to estimate the total output in an economy that is currently dependent (at least partially) on current fisheries output. We therefore applied the Leontief technological coefficients at current production and then estimate total output supported throughout the economy at the current level of production. Estimates of gross revenue from capture fisheries suggest that the direct value of output for this sector is US $80–85 billion annually (Sumaila et al., Journal of Bioeconomics 9(1):39–51, 2007; Willmann et al., The Sunken Billions, World Bank, FAO, Washington DC, Rome, 2009). However, as a primary or a potential economic base industry, there are a vast number of secondary economic activities—from boat building to international transport—that are supported by world fisheries, yet these related activities are rarely considered when evaluating the economic impact of fisheries. This study applies an input–output methodology to estimate the total direct, indirect, and induced impact of marine capture fisheries on the world economy. While results suggest that there is a great deal of variation in fishing output multipliers between regions and countries, when we apply the output multipliers to the capture fisheries sector at the global level, we find that significant indirect and induced effects place the impact of this sector to world output nearly three times larger than the value of landings at first sale, at between US $80–85 billion annually (Sumaila et al., Journal of Bioeconomics 9(1):39–51, 2007; Willmann et al., The Sunken Billions, World Bank, FAO, Washington DC, Rome, 2009). However, as a primary or a potential economic base industry, there are a vast number of secondary economic activities—from boat building to international transport—that are supported by world fisheries, yet these related activities are rarely considered when evaluating the economic impact of fisheries. This study applies an input–output methodology to estimate the total direct, indirect, and induced impact of marine capture fisheries on the world economy. While results suggest that there is a great deal of variation in fishing output multipliers between regions and countries, when we apply the output multipliers to the capture fisheries sector at the global level, we find that significant indirect and induced effects place the impact of this sector to world output nearly three times larger than the value of landings at first sale, at between US 225 and 240 billion per year.     

The Japanese information economy: Its quantification and analysis in a macroeconomic framework (with comparisons to the U.S.)

Japan is one of the leading information societies and there is official policy promotion of its information economy image. In this study the information sector of Japan is measured and analysed within a macroeconomic framework, using input-output techniques. Important benchmark statistics on both the primary and secondary information sectors are derived and compared to those obtained in an earlier study of the U.S. The analysis reveals the high growth potential of both information sectors in the two economies. However, important inter-country differences also emerge, in particular in regard to the amount of resources devoted to the information task at the disaggregated sector level. This leads to a discussion of the relationship between investment in the information sector, organisational design, informational efficiency and productivity growth, which is seen to be of crucial importance for the future success or failure of the two economies. Limitations of the approach adopted in this study and areas for further research are indicated.     

Economic reform and interprovincial inequalities in China

This note is an attempt to explore two issues: (1) the trend of interprovincial inequality in the post-1978 reform era in China; and (2) the factors behind the dynamics of interprovincial inequality. Using recently released provincial gross domestic product (GDP) data, we have shown that interprovincial inequality decreased in the fast half of the 1980s, but started to increase in the second half of the 1980s. To understand the impact of sectoral reforms on interprovincial inequality, the overall inequality in provincial per capita GDP is decomposed into the contributions by the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. It seems that the trend of interprovincial inequality has been largely induced by the reforms of the industrial sector which make up a large share of the secondary sector. In addition, national income data from the socialist national accounting system are used to identify the impact of interprovincial resource flows on interprovincial inequalities. The findings seem to suggest a relative decline in the role of redistributive budgetary transfers.     

WHO GETS MATERNITY LEAVE?: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

This paper evaluates a maternity leave policy designed to reduce gender inequality in the labor market. It examines the extent to which Malaysia's paid maternity leave policy provides working women with leave as a condition of their employment. Since all women are not the same, a policy may benefit some women and not others. Using data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey, the paper estimates the likelihood of a woman's receiving maternity leave as a function of demographic, employment, and occupational variables. The results show that being Indian, having higher education, holding jobs that are full-time and all-year, holding jobs with higher earnings at the start, and holding professional and clerical occupations increase the likelihood that a woman will receive maternity leave. These results imply that Malaysia's maternity leave policy does not provide broad coverage to working women—that is, only some women under some conditions in some occupations tend to receive leave. The evidence suggests that women in the primary sector of the labor market receive leave while women in the secondary sector do not.     

Recycling Redux: A Nash–Cournot Approach

We consider an industry characterized by simultaneous competition between the producer of a primary good, and N recylers who are Cournot rivals. Two important factors influence the effect of recycling on the equilibrium outcome and on the primary producer's market power: the structure of production costs, and the time lag between primary production and recycling. The presence of the recycling sector may increase the market power of the primary producer, as conventionally measured by the Lerner index. Some of the results raise doubts about the appropriateness of the Lerner measure of market power in certain contexts.     

“Opt out” or kept out? The effect of stigma,structure, selection,and sector on the labor force participation of married women in India

Using the 61st and 68th rounds of National Sample Survey data, we investigate the role of stigma, the economy’s structure, potential selection bias, and sectoral differences in explaining the low labor force participation (LFP) of middle and secondary educated women in India relative to low‐ and high‐educated women (the “U‐shape”). Estimating LFP regressions on a sample of prime‐aged married women, we show that, controlling for background characteristics, if a woman’s husband works in a white‐collar job in a region with a high share of blue‐collar jobs, she is less likely to participate in the labor market (stigma). We also find a positive effect of an increase in an index of white‐collar job growth (structure) on married women’s LFP. These effects are present in both rural and urban sectors but are strongest in the rural sector. However, middle and secondary educated women are still found to have substantially lower LFP than low‐ and graduate‐educated women in both sectors. Indeed, over time, the U‐shape persists in the rural sector and deepens in the urban sector. Because unobservables are quite large in the urban sector, we use the method of instrumental variables and find an increasing return at middle levels but stagnation at higher levels.     

Internal migration and youth entrepreneurship in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

This paper analyzes youth internal migration in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its impact on entrepreneurship startup in a fresh post‐conflict context. Building on a national representative survey conducted in 2005, a recursive bivariate probit specification is used to jointly estimate the decision models of both migration and entrepreneurship. To evaluate the robustness of results, the propensity score matching method is used to test the concordance of the results after eliminating the redundant impact of unobserved factors. The two main conclusions are that youth migration increases the probability of being an entrepreneur, but in the informal sector. In addition, like secondary and post‐secondary education, the duration of stay after migrating is an important factor to being an entrepreneur in the formal sector. These conclusions are expected to enlighten policy‐makers as to the importance of promoting secondary and post‐secondary education as well as inclusive growth investments that may absorb more youth labor in formal sectors. This is the first exercise in the case of the DRC and since it focuses on youth, the paper makes a unique contribution to the literature related to the link between migration and entrepreneurship in a post‐war context.     

Exports,capabilities, and industrial policy in India

An extensive literature argues that India’s manufacturing sector has underperformed, and that the country has failed to industrialize; in particular, it has failed to take advantage of its labor–abundant comparative advantage. India’s manufacturing sector is smaller as a share of GDP than that of East Asian countries, even after controlling for GDP per capita. Hence, its contribution to overall GDP growth is modest. Without greater participation of the secondary sector, the argument goes, the country will not be able to develop and become a modern economy. Standard arguments blame the “license-permit raj”, the small-scale industrial policy, and the labor laws. All these were part of the industrial policy regime instituted after independence. This regime favored the heavy-machinery subsector. We argue that despite its shortcomings and misallocations, the bias towards machinery, metals, chemicals, and other capital- and skilled labor-intensive products allowed Indian manufacturing to accumulate a wide range of capabilities. We show that India’s manufacturing sector is more diversified and sophisticated than one would expect given the country’s income per capita. This positions India well to continue expanding its exports of other sophisticated products. India’s failure, however, lies in not being able to diversify into labor-intensive sectors and generate the type of structural transformation seen in China.     

Regional and environmental impacts of expanding the heavy duty vehicle charge to the secondary road network in Austria

In road freight transport a particularly large share of the total social costs generated is not borne by road users. To correct for this, many European countries use pricing instruments specifically targeted at heavy duty vehicles, so far targeted almost exclusively at the primary road network. In line with the overall EU objective of greening the transport sector, we discuss the possibility of expanding the road charging system to a more comprehensive, area-wide one. The degree to which peripheral or disadvantaged regions are hit over-proportionally by such a measure remains an open question in the literature on heavy duty vehicle road pricing. We combine an input–output and a computable general equilibrium approach to analyse the case for Austria. We find that while it is not the sectors of highest economic importance in the periphery regions that are hit by the charge, those sectors that are hit are those which are relatively more important in peripheral regions (with up to a twofold share in value added) and for whom production price impacts tend to be relatively strong. The short term consumer price effect of extending the current primary road network charges to the secondary network is found not to exceed 0.15%. In terms of the principles of sustainable transport we find that extending charge coverage is compatible with most core principles, the exception being the principle of regional need. In terms of environmental impact, for example, expanding heavy duty vehicle charges to the secondary road network reduces heavy duty vehicle kilometres in the overall network (and related emissions) by roughly 2%. However, in order to comply with the needs principle, suitable complementary transfer policies need to be designed and implemented for peripheral regions.     

Skilled–unskilled wage inequality,product variety,public input and increasing returns: A static general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a four sector small open economy model with two traded final good sectors, a public intermediate good producing sector and a nontraded good sector producing varieties of intermediate goods. There are three primary factors: capital, skilled labour and unskilled labour. Industrial sector producing a traded good uses capital, intermediate goods and skilled labour as inputs. Intermediate goods producing sector also uses capital and skilled labour. Public input producing sector and the agricultural sector producing the other traded good use capital and unskilled labour as inputs. It is shown that, if production technologies are the same for the agricultural sector and the public input producing sector and if the scale elasticity of output is very low, then an increase in capital stock (unskilled labour endowment) raises (lowers) the skilled–unskilled wage ratio. However, an increase in skilled labour endowment does not produce any unambiguous effect. On the other hand, an increase in the tax rate on industrial output and/or an increase in the price of the agricultural product, armed with the same set of assumptions, lowers the skilled–unskilled wage ratio.     

PRIMARY VERSUS SECONDARY PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES IN U.S. MANUFACTURING

In this paper we analyze the determinants of material inputs into individual production activities as a function of their outputs. We use observations on a large cross-section of U.S. manufacturing plants from the Census of Manufactures, including those that make goods primary to other industries, to study differences in production techniques. We find that in most cases material requirements do not depend on whether goods are made as primary products or as secondary products. We thus elucidate support for the commodity technology model as a useful working hypothesis.