Nonlinear dynamics and the exports–output growth nexus

The untested assumption of a linear relationship between exports and output growth in previous empirical investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in five industrialized economies (Canada, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US) with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results from linearity tests show that nonlinearities do exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.     

Effects of Primary Exports on Industrial Exports and GDP: Empirical Evidence

This paper analyzes the effects of the growth of nonfuel primary exports on the growth of industrial exports and GDP in 74 economies between 1965 and 1992. There is clear evidence of positive effects, both in the short term and in the long term, of the growth of primary exports on the growth of industrial exports and GDP in more than two-thirds of the economies. Therefore, governments in developing countries should not discriminate against the export of primary products, as some earlier studies suggest. Instead, they should adhere to policies that aim at export promotion.     

Export–led growth and structural change: evidence from Malaysia

Many studies have tried to establish the causal link between export expansion and economic growth. This contribution is to recognize that structural changes will change the sources of growth and this will affect the export-growth relationship. A country case study approach is used focusing on Malaysia, a country with one of the world's highest sustained growth rates and a long history of commodity trade. We use VAR analysis of Malaysian quarterly trade and GDP growth from 1965 to 1996. Trade data are disaggregated into primary and manufactures exports and causality tests are applied to the entire period as well as two subperiods #150 the 1965 #1501980 period when policy emphasis was on import substitution and the 1981#1501996 period when policies favoured export-led growth. Statistical tests confirm export-led growth for the full period and for the period to 1980 but tests on the 1981#1501996 period show growth causing exports. Primary exports had a stronger direct impact on economic growth than manufactures. The weakening support for export-led growth after Malaysia shifted to an export-oriented development strategy is associated with structural changes associated with industrialization. Interaction among trade and growth variables becomes more complex with a broadening export base and more diverse sources of growth.     

Exports,policy choices,and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock

In a study of 43 developing countries in the 1973–78 period of external shocks, the author has shown that intercountry differences in the rate of economic growth are affected by differences in investment rates and by the rate of growth of the labor force, by the initial trade policy stance and by the adjustment policies applied, as well as by the level of economic development and the product composition of exports. The results show that the policies adopted have importantly influenced the rate of economic growth in developing countries. In particular, an outward-oriented policy stance at the beginning of the period and reliance on export promotion in response to these shocks, appear to have favorably affected growth performance. The results further indicate the possibilities for low-income countries to accelerate their economic growth through the application of modern technology in an appropriate policy framework as well as the advantages of relying on manufactured exports.     

A study of environmental impact on manufacturing products trade in Shandong,China

Based on the situation that the trade of manufactured goods takes the main position in Shandong Province,this paper identifies Shandong industrial pollutant discharge by three indices,which are industrial effluent discharge,industrial SO2 emission,and solid waste disposal.Furthermore,it conducts an empirical analysis of the trade terms of pollution content transfer on nine identified industrial sectors.The conclusion is that the increase in industrial effluent discharge,industrial SO2 emission,and solid waste disposal has paralleled the growth of the GDP in Shandong.The rapid economic growth brings obvious negative impact on the environment.Compared with that in 1998,the increase in the pollution content of exports in 2007 indicated that more environmental costs were generated with the economic development in Shandong.There is a need for optimization of foreign trade structure in Shandong,especially the need for increasing import of the pollution intensive products and decreasing the export of the pollution intensive products.The research on the relationship between manufactured goods trade and the environmental impact will make a contribution to the adjustment of foreign trade and environmental policies.     

An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971–2001)

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re‐examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon Feder's (1983 ) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks.     

The effect on income distribution of development,the growth rate and economic strategy

An analysis of cross-section and time series data for 83 countries confirms some, and contradicts other work on income distribution. New findings include: a dualistic socio-political system is highly unfavorable for equality. Neither the extent of government intervention in the economy nor the rate of manufactured exports are systematically related to income distribution. The analysis confirms that there is no systematic relationship between equality and the rate of economic growth. Educational participation and a reduction in the share of primary exports in GDP are both favorable for equality. There is some support for the Kuznets hypothesis that inequality increases as per capita income rises to about $400 and then declines, with further income increase, but the empirical support is not strong and may be weakening over time. These findings lead to more optimistic conclusions then other work: that rapid growth in a mixed economy is quite consistent with unchanged, or even improved, income distribution, even at early stages of development.     

Asymmetric effects of financial development on South-South and South-North trade: Panel data evidence from emerging markets

Using bilateral trade data in total and technology-and-skill-intensive manufactured goods for 28 developing countries that account for 82% of all developing country manufactures exports between 1978 and 2005, this paper explores the effects of financial development on the pattern of specialization in South-South and South-North trade. The empirical results using dynamic panel regressions and comprehensive sensitivity tests suggest that financial development in the South has an economically and statistically significant positive effect on the share of total and technology-and-skill-intensive manufactures exports in GDP, and total exports in South-South trade. In contrast, no such significant or robust effect of financial development is found in South-North trade. Overall, the positive effect of financial development is found to be asymmetric favoring South-South significantly more than South-North trade. In addition, financial development is found to be increasing technology-and-skill-intensive manufactured goods exports significantly more than total manufactured or merchandise goods exports.     

中国出口与经济增长关系的实证分析

为使中国出口与经济增长的实证研究结论具有解释力,关键是要保证计量模型有理论依据,并将出口置于经济增长系统之中来分析出口对经济增长的作用。本文采用出口扩展的C—D生产函数,分不同时期对我国出口与经济增长进行格兰杰因果检验及协整分析。分析结果表明,1979~2005年间,中国的国内生产总值与资本形成、劳动力及出口总额之间存在一种稳定的均衡关系,出口对经济增长有明显的促进作用;而1952~1978年间,没有明显的证据表明出口对经济增长有显著的促进作用。     

Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.     

The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis

The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is examined for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, the results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When only manufactured exports are examined, no support is found for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.     

Exports and economic growth: Further evidence

This paper investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth in a group of eleven developing countries that have already established an industrial base. Separate consideration is given to manufactured and to total exports; in the case of the latter, adjustment is made for domestic and foreign investment and for increases in the labor force.     

EXPORTS,EXPORT COMPOSITION AND GROWTH: A SIMULTANEOUS ERROR-CORRECTION MODEL FOR TUNISIA

The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data. Although this research has contributed to measure the impact of exports on economic growth, it still has three main drawbacks. First, the studies on cross-section data suppose homogeneous production techniques for the countries involved. Second, most of the research introduces a bias in the estimation of the export impact on economic growth since it neglects all effects of simultaneity between these two variables. Finally, most of the estimated regressions in these studies may constitute ‘spurious‘ regressions since the analysis of the stationarity of the variables is missing. This paper considers the Tunisian case and tries to study the dynamics between growth and exports through a simultaneous error correction model. The study shows the presence of a positive and significant relationship between exports and economic growth driven by manufactured exports rather than food-processing exports and international tourism. The measurement of such a relationship is understated if the simultaneity between export expansion and G.D.P growth is ignored. [C 32, C 51, C 52, F 43]     

Export composition and growth of selected low-income African countries: evidence from time-series data

This paper examines the hypothesis that economic growth is linked to export composition with the use of time-series data for some low-income African countries. On the basis of the regression results, the study supports the hypothesis of a positive linkage between the growth of non-fuel primary exports and growth. However, the results cast some doubt on the significance of the positive contribution of the manufactured exports sector to the growth process of the low-income African countries.     

On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China

Despite high economic growth during the past decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies strongly influence Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function, this article examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted into common and idiosyncratic components, the latter being stationary. The results indicate cointegration between the common components of GDP, the capital stock and exports. In equilibrium, exports increase GDP by more than their impact expected from the national accounts. While exports and capital are weakly exogenous, GDP responds to deviations from the long run. A similar adjustment pattern can be detected for most regions, except for some provinces in the Western part of the country.     

A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.     

Institutions,Institutionalism: 1776–1974

Since developing countries were relatively free from the trade regulations relating to export promotion policies until 1994, the northeast Asian dynamic economies could pursue export promotion policies aggressively during the period of rapid economic growth. Under the current World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are restrictions or even prohibitions on the developing countries' use of export promotion policies. One may doubt the fairness of the current WTO system, which regulates the use of export promotion policies regardless of different economic development levels. The current paper suggests various ways of allowing developing countries to develop their production capacities and exports of manufactured products. It also provides suggestions on modifying the current WTO regulations in favor of the export promotion policies of developing countries. Such special treatment of developing countries could be justified from the viewpoint of distributional fairness applied to international trade relations.     

我国加工贸易对经济增长影响的实证研究

利用我国1989～2009年国内生产总值和加工贸易进出口额,采用实证方法检验了加工贸易对我国经济增长的影响,发现加工贸易净出口促进经济增长,且净出口是GDP增长的格兰杰原因。     

中国出口贸易与内生经济增长——基于结构视角的实证分析

本文从出口结构视角重新审视了改革开放以来中国迅速增长的出口贸易和经济增长间的关系。在包括经济增长、技术进步、出口总量增长和结构变化的4变量系统中,利用LA-VAR模型的实证分析表明,无论是工业制成品占出口总额比重还是工业制成品出口中资本技术密集型产品比重的变化,均对我国经济增长和技术进步具有重要影响。本文的政策涵义是,要充分发挥出口贸易对经济发展的贡献,不应拘泥于出口总量的高低,而应深刻理解出口增长及其结构变化对我国宏观经济运行的全方位影响及其作用机制,致力于出口为国内产业结构升级、技术进步和增长方式的转型服务,取得出口贸易的动态效果。     

Export Sector Dynamics and Domestic Growth: The Case of Colombia

Analyses of Colombian data have generally failed to confirm the hypothesis of export-led growth. This paper generates several measures of export diversification and structural change in exports, and argues that these measures are useful in assessing growth externalities generated by the export sector. In a simultaneous-equations framework, increases in the rate of export structural change are associated with accelerated Colombian GDP growth. Export diversification, by contrast, is not a source of economic growth, and the reduced-form relationship between aggregate lagged export growth and GDP growth is weak.