试论国内区际贸易与对外贸易利益的关系

对外贸易的发展理应建立在国内区际贸易充分开展的基础上。国内区际贸易的开展对对外贸易利益的取得具有重要的意义。我国改革开放过程中的国内市场分割现象,使得国内区际贸易滞后于对外贸易快速发展,并制约了对外贸易利益最大化的实现。本文的政策结论是通过加快改革逐步实现国内经济市场化和一体化以提高外贸利益。     

对外直接投资与国内产业空心化

本文针对一些西方学者关于美国、日本对外直接投资导致国内产业“空心化”的观点,提出了不同的见解。首先, 第一、第二产业比重下降, 第三产业比重上升是一国产业结构演进的一般规律, 与对外直接投资无关; 其次, 一国的对外直接投资规模巨大与贸易逆差并无直接联系; 第三, 对外直接投资增强了投资者的国际竞争力; 第四, 对外直接投资对一国的就业机会影响甚微。总之, 对外直接投资为投资国和对外直接投资者带来巨大利益, 而不会导致国内产业“空心化     

Foreign Direct Investment,Merchandise and Services Trade in a Transition Economy: The Case of Cambodia

Since the liberalization of trade and investment in the 1990s, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) has been seen to play a greater role in forging trade flows, integration into the regional and international markets and economic development for a transition economy such as Cambodia. Despite her recent progress in attracting FDI and fostering trade, the direction of causality between inward FDI, exports and imports of merchandise as well as services has not been empirically explored. The findings show that inward FDI not only can promote both merchandise and services exports but also indicate the presence of backward and forward linkages, which could result in positive externalities. However, based on the impulse response analysis, it seems that merchandise exports are more vulnerable than services exports to an unanticipated shift in FDI inflows in the medium run.     

Outward FDI,Total Factor Productivity and Domestic Output: Evidence from Germany

This paper examines the impact of outward FDI on domestic output and total factor productivity by applying cointegration techniques to macroeconomic time series data for Germany. We find a positive relationship between outward FDI and domestic output as well as between outward FDI and total factor productivity. Furthermore, our results indicate that there is bidirectional causality between outward FDI and domestic output, and outward FDI and total factor productivity, suggesting that increased output and productivity are both a consequence and a cause of increased outward FDI. Overall, the results of this paper can be interpreted as evidence of productivity-enhancing, and thus growth-enhancing, effects of outward FDI, which is inconsistent with the simplistic idea that outward investment represents a diversion of domestic economic activity.     

外商直接投资"挤入"还是"挤出"了国内投资

本文构建了外商直接投资FDI对国内投资的绝对挤入挤出模型,由此修正了已有的相对挤入挤出模型存在的不严谨之处;并在此基础上讨论了FDI对我国国内投资的挤入、挤出影响。最终结论表明:在全国范围内,FDI对国内投资的挤入挤出效应不显著;而在我国东部地区则存在明显的挤出效应;在中部地区存在明显的挤入效应;在西部地区,FDI的挤出效应不显著。     

国际贸易和国际直接投资一体化的理论基础探析

传统的新古典国际贸易理论否定国际直接投资的存在空间,但经济全球化的迅速发展现实则表明国际贸易和国际直接投资是相互促进发展的。本文回顾了国际贸易和国际直接投资理论融合的历史和现状,着重分析了内在规模经济（内在比较优势）的理论渊源,探讨了贸易投资一体化的理论基础是基于内在规模经济的国际分工。     

外商在华直接投资与中美贸易平衡问题

文章研究发现:(1)中国对外商品出口、从外商品进口分别与外商在华直接投资之间没有稳定的协整关系,但是存在有外商在华直接投资变动到中国对外贸易(出口、进口)发展变动的单向因果关系.(2)在95%置信水平下中国对美商品出口、对美贸易顺差分别与外商在华直接投资之间存在有双向影响关系,这与依据美国统计的月度数据计量的结论是相一致的.(3)外商在华投资企业和中资企业共同生产和出口美国必需的劳动密集型、资本密集和技术成熟型产品.美中贸易逆差属于互补性商品贸易逆差,已超越中美两国贸易范围,很大程度上是由外商在华直接投资包括美国在华直接投资所产生的贸易逆差转移和贸易替代效应造成的.     

外资流入对外贸影响的实证分析

蒙代尔认为,如果满足要素价格均等化的条件,贸易与投资具有完全替代作用,而后来的一些学者则认为资本要素的国际流动或者直接投资与商品贸易之间不仅存在替代性,而且在一定条件下存在互补关系。应该说这两种关系在不同发展阶段、不同国家、不同的条件下是表现不一的。本文主要通过近10年来我国外商投资与对外贸易的实证教据分析,侧重说明外商直接投资与对外贸易的互补关系,分析FDI流入对我国贸易的带动作用。     

中国房地产投资与经济增长的计量分析

近几年,中国房地产市场比较热,不断掀起投资的浪潮,中国的经济随之也较快地增长。但是金融危机席卷全球,对于2009年,中国的房地产投资与经济增长又如何呢？本文立足于现实情况,采集了15年的数据先对房地产投资和GDP进行组合预测,然后运用计量经济的相关知识对这十几年的数据进行定量分析,提出自己的见解,并展望未来。     

贸易自由化、外商直接投资与出口贸易地区差异

文章检验了贸易自由化、外商直接投资流入与出口贸易地区差异的关系。通过构建3×2×2空间一般均衡模型和使用2002-2008年全国28个省份面板数据,研究发现外商直接投资与地区出口贸易之间关系不确定,外商直接投资流入与贸易自由化共同造成出口贸易地区间差异。此外,中国与东盟贸易自由区更利于内陆地区出口贸易,劳动力禀赋对出口没有显著影响,物质资本和人力资本禀赋对出口具有正向影响,人民币升值会促进而非抑制出口贸易。     

内陆开放地区对外贸易、资本投资与就业分析——以重庆市为例

根据重庆市1987-2009年的统计数据,利用协整理论和向量误差修正模型(VECM),对重庆市对外贸易、资本投资与就业的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:从长期来看,重庆市进出口与就业之间存在唯一的协整关系;出口对就业具有拉动作用,而进口对就业有阻碍作用,并且出口对就业的促进作用小于进口对就业的抑制作用;而资本投入在一定程度上对劳动力产生了替代性.重庆市应通过协调产业发展、打造对外贸易新平台、均衡资本在区域、行业间的投入促进就业.     

投资形态差异与经济增长关系的实证分析——以江苏为例

以东部地区典型省份为代表,从投资角度出发,通过划分不同的投资形态,实证研究了不同投资形态对东部地区经济增长的作用。首先,江苏经济增长与不同投资形态的协整分析表明,变量间存在长期均衡关系;其次,格兰杰因果检验显示,不同滞后期的投资形态与GDP之间互动关系存在差异;最后,分析了1983—2009年间不同投资形态对江苏经济增长的影响,并对东部地区利用不同投资形态提出了政策建议。     

加工贸易、FDI对环境污染的影响分析——基于VECM模型的实证分析

本文基于1983年～2008年我国加工贸易出口额、FDI（实际使用的外商直接投资额）和环境污染的数据,通过建立VECM模型以及进行Granger因果关系检验研究加工贸易、FDI对环境污染的影响。结果表明：从长期看FDI的流入能够在一定程度上减轻我国的环境压力,短期两者的因果关系不明显;而无论长期还是短期,加工贸易都在相当程度上恶化了我国的环境。     

International Integration,Trade, and the Great Recession

In the wake of the Great Recession, almost all countries suffered a severe and synchronized trade collapse unlike any seen since the Great Depression. To the extent that economic integration fosters trade among countries, this paper examines the role that international integration played in moderating the negative shock caused by the Great Recession on trade. The methodology adopted is a modified gravity model in which we control for the Great Recession, different forms of integration, as well as the interaction between integration and the recession. Measuring integration in three different ways, the findings show that countries that were more integrated fared better in trade – the extent of trade collapse was milder – than less integrated countries. Specifically, Regional Trade Agreement, as a form of trade integration, had a positive and robust effect on trade during the Great Recession. This positive effect is also robust across regions and countries around the world. In a nutshell, countries that are into some form of trade agreements are better-positioned to absorb negative demand-side shocks caused by economic recessions than similar countries without such agreements.     

FDI对浙江省机电产品出口规模影响的实证研究

笔者根据浙江省1984年~2009年的相关经济数据,运用协整检验方法考察了FD I对浙江省机电产品出口规模的影响。认为:FD I对机电产品出口规模有着一定程度的促进作用。应采取产业结构升级、实施优惠的招商引资政策等措施,促进浙江在吸引和利用外资方面发展得更好更快,推动浙江机电产品出口贸易进一步发展壮大。     

Strategic Environmental Policies in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment

We analyze strategic environmental standards in the presence of foreign direct investment. A number of foreign firms located in a host country compete with a domestic firm in another country to export a homogeneous good to a third country. When the number of foreign firms is exogenous, the host country applies a stricter environmental regulation than the other producing country. However, under free entry and exit of foreign firms, the host country may apply a less severe standard under both non-cooperative and cooperative equilibrium. We also find that the nature market structure does not affect the equilibrium values of total pollution if export subsidies are also used.JEL Classification: F2, H2     

Autocracy,Democracy, and FDI Inflows to the Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between political regimes and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the developing countries for a sample of 134 countries over the 1983–2002 period. Using two categorical measures of regime type and three different measures of FDI, this study finds that, regardless of the measures of regime type, democracies are not significantly associated with either FDI in level or FDI as a ratio to GDP; democracy is positively related to a higher level of per capita FDI, but this result is not robust to alternative measures of political regime. Taken as a whole, there is no evidence of a systematic relationship between democracy and FDI inflows. This result suggests that being a democracy does not help attract higher levels of FDI.     

International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts,Mechanics, and Policy Implications*

International production/distribution networks in East Asia developed in the 1990s and after have distinctive features in their significance, extensiveness, and sophistication. This paper first lists “18 facts” on production/distribution networks in East Asia that have been identified by a number of studies using international trade data, microdata of Japanese multinational enterprises, and casual observations. It then presents a concept of two-dimensional fragmentation as a starting point of theoretically formalizing the phenomena of fragmentation and agglomeration. It finally discusses the policy environment in which the formation of production/distribution networks has been accelerated and policy implications of the existence of such networks for economic integration in East Asia.     

FDI对内资建筑企业影响机制的实证分析

FDI对建筑业的外溢作用在东、中、西部地区存在明显差别。FDI对全要素生产率的影响,在东部地区为负,中部为正且外溢值较高。中部地区FDI挤入了国内资本,而在西部却产生了挤出效应。