人民币实际汇率与进出口国别结构实证分析

笔者运用中国和美元区、日元区、欧元区(以德国为例)、韩元区、东盟区(以新加坡为代表)等五大货币区1981年～2003年的年度数据,通过Panel Date 分析人民币实际双边汇率变化对中国进出口国别结构的影响,并就1994年前后人民币实际双边汇率对进出口国别结构的影响进行了结构性诊断检验,研究结果表明:1994年前,人民币实际汇率变化与日本、美国在华进口流向指标存在着较高的正相关关系,与德国、新加坡在华进口流各指标存在着较强的负相关关系;1994年后,人民币实际汇率变化与德国、新加坡在华进口流量指标存在着较强的正相关关系.与美国、日本、韩国在华进口流量指标存在着较强的正相关关系.     

汇率决定理论的新近发展:文献综述

传统汇率决定理论对于现实经济中汇率实际变动情况的解释能力十分低下.20世纪80年代以来,学术界不断寻求突破,以期为汇率如何决定这一基本命题提供更为合理的解释.在这一过程中,不断有新的文献出现,从不同的方面对传统的汇率理论进行补充、发展和替代.鉴于此,本文试图对汇率决定理论的新近发展进行梳理和介绍,借以为国内经济学界研究汇率决定问题提供一个理论参考.     

Coordination versus flexibility in wage formation: a focus on the nominal wage impact of productivity in Germany,Greece, Ireland,Portugal, Spain and the United States

Wage coordination between countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) aims at aligning nominal wage growth with labour productivity growth at the national level. We analyse the developments in Germany, the EMU’s periphery countries Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain along with the United States over the period 1980 to 2010. Apart from the contribution of productivity to nominal wages, we take into account the contributions of prices, unemployment, replacement rates and taxes by means of an econometrically estimated nonlinear equation resulting from a wage bargaining model. We further study the downward rigidities of nominal wages. The findings show that in past times of low productivity, price inflation and reductions in unemployment still put significant upward pressure on nominal wage growth. The periphery countries are far from aligning nominal wage growth with productivity growth. German productivity is a major wage determinant, but surely not the only one. Within the context of a free bargaining process between employers and labour unions, policy-makers can effectively use the replacement rate to steer the nominal wages outcome.     

经常项目逆差会导致货币危机吗

经常项目逆差与货币危机之间存在着相互关系。从理论上分析,汇率变动率可分解为经常项目差额变动率、资本项目差额变动率以及综合影响比率三者之和;但从实证角度看,汇率变动与其影响因素的变动关系相当复杂。研究显示,该关系很难直接通过线性回归模型来表达。通过相关分析,我们揭示出经常项目逆差与汇率贬值存在较明显的正相关关系;汇率贬值与GDP增长有较强的负相关性。但中国的情况似乎有些特殊,仍有待进一步考察。     

Social cost of CO2 abatement from energy efficiency and solar power in the United States

Frequently cited empirical analyses ask whether we should make the transition from reliance on fossil fuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and conclude that the transition is too costly so we should, instead, focus policy on how to adapt to global warming. This paper makes two improvements in the analysis. First, this empirical analysis accounts for existing low-cost alternatives that are substitutes for fossil fuels. Second, this empirical analysis incorporates existing estimates of externalities from fossil fuels. These two basic improvements in the analysis alter the conclusion; policy should focus on how rapidly and extensively to make the transition from reliance on fossil fuels to the alternatives. The corollary is that we should focus on the efficacy and cost of policy options that are designed to accomplish the transition.     

Determinants of the real exchange rate in the long-run for developing and emerging countries: a theoretical and empirical approach

This paper presents a new framework for the determinants of real exchange in the long-run in developing and emerging countries (DECs). We assume that currencies should be regarded as an asset. In consequence, dealers in the foreign exchange market play a crucial role on its dynamics. To set our model, we connect the model developed by Kaltenbrunner, which is grounded on chapter 17 of the General Theory, with productivity’s differential effect. By doing so, it states that even short-run factors and monetary variables affect the long-run real exchange rate. Moreover, it points out that the hierarchical nature of the international monetary system is crucial to understand exchange rate movements in DECs. Besides presenting such theoretical approach, our contribution is to test it empirically for 45 DECs from 1990 to 2008 by applying econometric techniques appropriate for panel data. We use a new data-set, which comprises, among other variables, foreign portfolio flow, interest rate differential, external vulnerability measures, and international liquidity, on annual basis. The empirical results endorse this framework. Overall, it shows the primacy of financial factors as determinants of the long-run real exchange rate and points to the endogenous and self-perpetuating nature of international monetary system hierarchy.     

Toward a multilateral framework for identifying national security threats posed by foreign acquisitions: with special reference to Chinese acquisitions in the United States,Canada, and Australia

This article presents a framework for differentiating between foreign acquisitions of companies that might plausibly pose a national security threat to the home country of the target acquisition and those that do not. This framework originally derives from the experience of the United States. The framework is then shown to be relevant and useful for foreign acquisitions in Canada and Australia. In each case, Chinese acquisitions of US, Canadian, or Australian firms are highlighted. The article concludes by arguing that this framework can serve as an effective nondiscriminatory basis for separating genuine from implausible national security threats from foreign acquisitions across OECD states, to include all countries around the world.     

聚集效应、劳动力市场分割与城市增长机制的重构--转轨时期我国农村劳动力转移的一个新古典模型的拓展

文章从经济中的劳动力市场存在着异质性、部门经济增长存在着聚集效应以及农村劳动力收入分配服从平均主义原则的假设出发,构建了一个解释二元经济城市增长机制的拓展的新古典一般均衡模型,并据此对我国现阶段城市化进程的基本规律及未来的演变进行了深入分析。文章认为,我国城市化过程的基本表现形式是农村劳动力向城市的转移,而这种转移将在城市正规部门与非正规部门两个不同的层次上同时进行。在一段时期内,城市正规部门的发展将决定农村中高素质劳动力的转移速度,而城市非正规部门的发展则决定了农村中低素质劳动力的转移速度。但从长期看,城市化进程的速度将取决于城市正规部门和非正规部门中具有聚集效应的那一部分经济的发展速度,而且更有意义的是,具有聚集效应的城市非正规部门的发展还将在极大程度上影响我国农村高素质劳动力向城市的转移和我国城市化层次的提高。     

Devaluation and Marx's Law of the tendential fall in the rate of profit

Marx's law of the tendential fall in the rate of profit predicts that the rate of profit will decline over the long term as the forces of production develop, and move cyclically in a way that explains crises and economic recoveries. This interpretation is substantiated with textual evidence, and with a method for measuring the dynamic of devaluation and revaluation which Marx uses to explain the profit rate cycle. This method is shown to be consistent with temporalism, meaning it avoids the transformation problem created by dual system interpretations, and the problem of the Okishio Theorem created by simultaneist interpretations. The article also includes a temporalist way to estimate the Monetary Expression of Labour Time, and empirical results for the effect of devaluation on the stock of fixed assets in the United States since 1930.     

新中国党的经济理论与思想发展评析

本文总结了党的十一届三中全会以前经济理论上的主要失误和经验教训,回顾了社会主义初级阶段理论的提出与发展,党的十一届三中全会以来从理论上弄清什么是社会主义和如何建设社会主义,并评析了我们正在实践的社会主义市场经济,对于认清当前重大经济理论问题有一定的指导意义。     

Firm-Level TFP Growth in the Chinese Automobile Industry

China has been the world’s largest automobile producer since 2009,but it still lags behind other countries in terms of productivity. Based on theNational Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) firm-level data and the improvedapproach proposed by Ackerberg et al. (2015), this paper investigates thecontribution of total factor productivity (TFP) growth to the Chinese automobileindustry and evaluates the impact of firm entry and exit on TFP growth. Theempirical results show that the TFP of the Chinese automobile industry grows at10.7% per year. Joint venture and foreign-owned firms have a significantly higherTFP growth rate than others. Large-scale firms have a higher TFP growth rate thando small-scale firms, but the latter have caught up after 2004. Moreover, the entryof new firms and exit of old firms significantly improve the aggregate TFP growthrate.     

Human appropriation of net primary production in the United Kingdom, 1800-2000 : Changes in society's impact on ecological energy flows during the agrarian-industrial transition

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the United Kingdom's society's long-term intervention into the energy flows of domestic terrestrial ecosystems through the human appropriation of aboveground net primary production (aHANPP) covering the period 1800-2000. The depicted aHANPP trajectory and the historical development of its components are discussed in view of a continuously increasing population and the transition process from an agrarian to an industrial socioecological regime. During the 19th century, aHANPP shows a steady decline from its level of 71% in 1800. While even higher levels were reached during the mid 20th century, the trend during the last forty years of the period under investigation again shows a reduction of aHANPP, which lies at 68% in the year 2000. The high values of aHANPP in the United Kingdom are primarily attributable to the limited amount of forest in comparison to large agricultural areas. At the beginning of the studied period, the relative stabilisation or even decrease in aHANPP in comparison to population development was made possible through the area expansion of and productivity increases on cropland and permanent pastures. Later this was made possible through the outsourcing of biomass harvest, by satisfying local nutritional demands by means of overseas imports, and as from the mid 20th century through huge amounts of fossil fuel based inputs into agriculture (e.g. increased amounts of fertilizers and motorized traction) which allowed increases in biomass harvest to be decoupled from HANPP.     

财政支农的市场一体化效应及其政策

以增加农民收入从而支撑具有产业、区域特征的市场一体化为视角,对财政政策不同的支农方式和支农工具所产生的不同的农业市场一体化效应进行了分析,认为直接收入补贴明显好于价格支持;间接支农优于直接支农;而且不同的支农项目对市场一体化的促进作用差异显著。为此,提出了逐步减少价格支持,增加直接收入补贴,增加财政间接支农力度,引导农业生产要素多渠道利用,促进农业系统内外部合作,重视三农无形资产,建立适当监督机制等政策建议。