Human Capital and Growth Cycles

This paper studies the dynamic interaction between human capital accumulation and economic growth. Capital market imperfections and an indivisibility in human capital investment prevent poor agents from accumulating skills, the acquisition of which positively affects technological progress. More productive technologies in turn require more sophisticated qualification and involve higher training costs. The equilibrium dynamics can be characterized by the joint evolution of productivity growth, the schooling costs, and the income distribution. Under our assumptions, individual incomes follow a non-linear Markov chain. This non-linearity generates endogenous fluctuations of schooling activities and the rate at which productivity improvements occur. We thank an anonymous referee for many helpful suggestions. Support from the German Research Foundation (DFG) under grant KA1519/2-2 is gratefully acknowledged.     

社会资本、人力资本与经济增长

笔者采用截面数据回归分析法及时间序列数据协整分析法对中国社会资本的不同维度——信任和民间组织与人力资本、经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,我国社会资本通过影响人力资本而影响经济增长,人力资本是我国社会资本作用于经济增长的机制之一。     

Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

Human capital plays an important role in the theory of economic growth, but it has been difficult to measure this abstract concept. We survey the psychological literature on cross-cultural IQ tests and conclude that intelligence tests provide one useful measure of human capital. Using a new database of national average IQ, we show that in growth regressions that include only robust control variables, IQ is statistically significant in 99.8% of these 1330 regressions, easily passing a Bayesian model-averaging robustness test. A 1 point increase in a nation’s average IQ is associated with a persistent 0.11% annual increase in GDP per capita.     

人力资本投资效率的经济增长效应研究——基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析

本文借助中国30个省份1998～2008年的面板数据,以数据包络分析(DEA)得到的人力资本投资效率来指代各省的人力资本情况,综合采用普通面板回归、空间面板回归、门限面板回归以及平滑转换面板回归这四种回归模型进行分析后发现:人力资本投资效率在对经济增长有着显著贡献的同时,还存在明显的空间外溢效应和门限效应.基于这一结论,本文认为应当加大对邻省较多、经济发展水平较高且人力资本投资效率较低省份的科教支出并努力提升这些省份的人力资本投资效率;而对经济发展水平较低且人力资本投资效率较高的省份,不适宜从改进人力资本投资效率的思路来追求更快速的经济增长.     

我国人力资本投资对经济增长作用的实证研究

我国作为世界上的大国,拥有世界1/5的人口,但是资源的稀缺约束着我国的发展。不过,我国所具备的充裕人力劳动资源是不可忽视的优势,若能将人力资源转化为人力资本,必定会推动我国经济进一步发展。通过计量经济学分析模式,剖析了我国人力资本投资对经济增长的贡献作用,阐明了人力资本投资对经济增长的促进作用。并就如何加强我国人力资本投资与建设提出了建议。     

人力资本积累、收入分布演化与经济增长

本文建立了一个同时含有物质资本、人力资本积累及收入分布演化的内生增长模型,来研究人力资本积累、收入分布演化与经济增长的相互作用.我们发现,更高的初始收入差异将通过直接降低人力资本增长率与间接提高下一期的物质资本与人力资本比这两个渠道对经济增长率产生负面影响.另一方面,降低收入差异能获得更高的人力资本与经济增长率,这将使得低收入国家有可能追赶上高收入国家.     

Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Convergence Approach

This paper estimates dynamic effects of public capital on output per capita. Based on an open economy growth model, I derive a version of the income convergence equation augmented with public capital. This equation is estimated using panel data of United States and Japanese regions. Sensible results are obtained when public capital is disaggregated into components. In both countries, the infrastructure component of public capital turns out to have significantly positive effects. The implied elasticity of output with respect to infrastructure is somewhere around 0.1 to 0.15. This suggests a modest contribution of infrastructure to postwar growth of the two countries.     

人力资本对经济增长推动作用研究

人力资本作为一种潜在的资本能量,在与物资资本相结合的生产过程中,价值创造功能会逐渐的显现出来。但在各国实际的经济发展过程中,人力资本发挥作用的物质载体有很大差异,因此这种能量的发挥也会受到具体条件的限制。本文从理论与实证的角度梳理了部分学者关于人力资本对经济增长推动作用的研究。理论上,人力资本通过非知识效应、收入效应、替代效应以及外部效应等相关作用机制对经济增长会起到推动作用,这得到了大家的一致认同;实证分析研究中,由于学者采用的人力资本存量计量方法的不同,结论也不尽相同;而学者在对我国经济增长的实证研究中显示,人力资本对我国经济增长的推动作用不足。     

我国人力资本投资对经济增长的贡献

本文在对人力资本与经济增长的文献综述的基础上,利用我国统计年鉴中有关经济、教育数据计算我国人力资本存量与物质资本存量,并利用有效劳动模型和人力资本外部性模型,估计我国人力资本对经济增长的贡献,发现在我国经济增长过程中,物质资本存量的作用更为关键,而且人力资本投资对经济增长的外部性作用明显。     

The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth

This paper analyzes the interaction between the distributionof human capital, technological progress, and economic growth.It argues that the composition of human capital is an importantfactor in the determination of the pattern of economic development.The study demonstrates that the evolutionary pattern of the humancapital distribution, the income distribution, and economic growthare determined simultaneously by the interplay between a local home environment externality and a global technologicalexternality. In early stages of development the local home environmentexternality is the dominating factor and hence the distributionof income becomes polarized; whereas in mature stages of developmentthe global technological externality dominates and the distributionof income ultimately contracts. Polarization, in early stagesof development may be a necessary ingredient for future economicgrowth. An economy that prematurely implements a policy designedto enhance equality may be trapped at a low stage of development.An underdeveloped economy, which values equality as well as prosperity,may confront a trade-off between equality in the short-run followedby equality and stagnation in the long-run, and inequality inthe short-run followed by equality and prosperity in the longrun.     

Human Capital, Growth, and Inequality in Russia

Our model captures the fact that Russia has both much human capital and an education system that produces the wrong skills for a market economy. We define a rule for the timing of educational restructuring that is Pareto optimal and that dominates all later times in a Paretian sense while simultaneously reducing inequality. We demonstrate that failure to implement restructuring early in the transition process is likely to produce a very long delay that will significantly reduce Russia's human capital. A retreat from subsidizing public education is likely to be counterproductive. We argue that early educational restructuring should be emphasized in Russia's transition strategy. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 618–643. Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, N.T., Hong Kong, People's Republic of China; University of Colorado, Denver, Denver, Colorado 88217; and Royal Holloway College, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 OEX, United Kingdom.     

Measures of Human Capital and Nonlinearities in Economic Growth

In this paper we study the relationship between human capital accumulation and economic growth using various measures of human capital frequently employed by researchers. We use semiparametric estimation techniques to uncover any nonlinearities that may exist. Using mean years of schooling measures of human capital we find a nonlinear effect on economic growth. There seem to be important differences in the growth effect of educational attainment by gender and level of education. Enrollment rates do not yield a nonlinear effect.     

论"人力资本产权"分歧的化解及其与智力资本的关系

人力资本、智力资本理论，本质上是“虚拟资本”问题，是对这些过去被看作是费用或成本的东西进行“资本化定价”。我国经济学界“人力资本产权”问题的分歧，关键在于没有从虚拟资本这个角度来思考“人力资本”这类问题。特别是由于在研究企业产权理论时，没有引进另一类虚拟资本——“智力资本”的概念。     

基于人力资本视角的陕西经济增长研究

随着知识经济时代的到来,人力资本已成为影响区域经济增长的一个重要因素.陕西作为西部大开发省份之一,其经济增长与本地人力资本水平是密切相关的.通过实证分析研究人力资本各项指标对陕西经济增长的影响,说明不同指标对陕西经济增长效应差异性,并分析其原因,在此基础上进一步探讨提升陕西省人力资本水平的政策措施.     

Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth

We study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an OLG model with a realistic survival law. Individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to work and at which they retire. Endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation-specific human capital. Favorable shifts in the survival probabilities induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on per-capita growth. The long-term relationship between fertility and per-capita growth is hump-shaped. Increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no-growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish. Solving numerically the equilibrium, demographic changes can have important medium-term effects even if long-term changes are very small. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 041, I20, J10.     

经济增长理论发展中的人力资本研究的方法论探析

在经济增长理论的发展中,由于新经济增长理论没有注意到新制度经济学的制度分析方法,人力资本理论研究陷入困境.分析其根源,在于受分析方法的局限,人们无法将制度纳入分析体系,从而比较客观地分析制度的影响和功能.制度学派的制度分析为经济增长理论发展提供新的思路和方法,但也存在过于绝对、片面地理解制度的决定作用的缺陷.人力资本与制度的辩证关系是人力资本起决定作用,制度起影响作用,因此,运用制度分析对于人力资本理论研究具有方法突破和政策意义.     

人力资本、财务资本与资本结构：理论和实证

当今社会已经从工业经济迈进知识经济时代，现有以财务资本为研究对象的资本结构理论在解释咨询、高新技术等人力资本较为密集的公司时难免会捉襟见肘。视企业为财务资本与人力资本共同的投资组合是现代资本结构理论研究刻不容缓的任务。本文以现有财务资本结构的研究为基础，通过引入人力资本变量拓宽现代资本结构的内涵，构造债务、股权和人力资本三者之间相互关系和作用的数理模型，结合对我国计算机应用服务业的实证分析，得出结论和启示。     

试论人力资本特性与公司人力资本风险防范

人力资本是经济增长和公司成长的重要因素,人力资本的使用效率对于公司整体的经济效益起着决定性作用.但是,由于人力资本的特有属性,即人力资本与其自然载体的不可分割性,使得公司在人力资本的使用中经常面临着人力资本关闭的风险.因而,公司应当通过完善治理结构,利用资本市场,优化融资结构,增加技术难度等措施防止人力资本风险问题,并可以借助于病假发生率,任务完成率等指标评价人力资本风险的大小.     

社会资本、金融发展与经济增长--基于中国东中西部省际数据的实证检验比较

社会资本对理解转轨情境下的当代中国金融发展与经济增长问题十分重要。采用中国东、中和西部的省际面板数据研究中国转轨时期不同制度水平下社会资本、金融发展及其联合效应对经济增长的影响。实证研究表明,正规金融的发展促进了经济增长,而社会资本对中国经济增长则具有显著的负影响。社会资本与正规金融发展的联合效应在东部和西部地区有利于经济增长,但非正规金融与社会资本的联合效应则不利于经济增长,并且制度越完善,这种负面效应越明显。因此,在深化制度改革和金融发展的同时,应注重社会资本结构优化和平衡,规范非正规金融发展。     

Growth and human capital: good data,good results

We present a new data set for years of schooling across countries for the 1960–2000 period. The series are constructed from the OECD database on educational attainment and from surveys published by UNESCO. Two features that improve the quality of our data with respect to other series, particularly for series in first-differences, are the use of surveys based on uniform classification systems of education over time, and an intensified use of information by age groups. As a result of the improvement in quality, these new series can be used as a direct substitute for Barro and Lee’s (2001; Oxford Economic Papers, 3, 541–563) data in empirical research. In standard cross-country growth regressions we find that our series yield significant coefficients for schooling. In panel data estimates our series are also significant even when the regressions account for the accumulation of physical capital. Moreover, the estimated macro return is consistent with those reported in labour studies. These results differ from the typical findings of the earlier literature and are a consequence of the reduction in measurement error in the series.