Empirical analysis on China money multiplier

The paper firstly represents two kind statements of China money multipliers and theoretically analyzes the relationship between each structure factor and China money multiplier. Secondly, it summarizes the several features and the move trends of China narrow and broad money multipliers and their structure factors. Thirdly, the paper empirically analyzes how and what degree the each structure factor affects China narrow and broad money multipliers holding everything else constant. At last two important conclusions are got, that is, the required reserve ratio is the most associated with China money multipliers and the saving deposit ratio is more associated with that, the required reserve ratio and the interest rates can be used as the ways of affecting money aggregate by the People＇s Bank of China.     

Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece

This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, equilibrium correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece over 1976–1994. The aggregate M3 was targeteduntil recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines. In spite of financial innovation, financial liberalization, and large fluctuations in the inflation rate, the estimated model is remarkabli stable. Dynamics are important, with price and income elasticities being much smaller in the short run than in the long run. The model provides a better understanding of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation and the effects of monetary policy in Greece.The authors are staff economists in the Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA, and the Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA, respectively. They may be reached on the Internet at ericsson@frb.gov and ssharma@imf.org. The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting those of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the International Monetary Fund, or other members of their staffs. We wish to thank the Bank of Greece for providing the data; Sophocles Brissimis, Nicholas Paleocrassas, and George Simigiannis for offering insights into institutional aspects of the Greek financial system; and Richard Agénor, Caroline Atkinson, Adi Brender, Julia Campos, Dimitri Demekas, David Hendry, Katarina Juselius, Tim Lane, Helmut Lütkepohl, Jaime Marquez, Jürgen Wolters, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. An earlier version of this paper appeared as Ericsson and Sharma (1996). All numerical results were obtained using PcGive Professional Versions 8 and 9: see Doornik and Hendry (1994a, 1994b, 1996, 1997) and Hendry and Doornik (1996). The data may be obtained from the Internet, http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/ oekonometrie/engl/data.html     

The stability of german money demand: Not just a myth

The stability of German money demand has been analyzed in a series of papers in recent years, especially since unification. In this paper the critical question of stability is reviewed, using various estimation techniques and testing procedures for long-run stability. To take financial innovations into account, the opportunity cost measure is calculated by differentiating between traditional savings deposits and special savings facilities, which are a major form of financial innovation in Germany. Overall, there are strong indications of a stable long-run money-demand relationship.I am indebted to G. Coenen, D. Gerdesmeier, B. Landau and A. Worms of the Deutsche Bundesbank, H.-E. Reimers, J. Wolters, two anonymous referees, as well as the participants in the workshop on Money demand in Europe for valuable comments. The data may be obtained from the internet, http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/oekonometrie/engl/data.html     

Financial innovation and regional money

This article studies the effect that financial innovation, which has been very common in recent years, has on money. Using Japanese regional data and the money demand specification, we first provide evidence of instability in the simple money-output relationship. However, when this relationship is extended to include a proxy for a comprehensive measure of financial innovation, the model is found to be stable. Furthermore, consistent with economic theory, evidence is obtained of financial innovation leading to decreased demand for liquid financial assets. In this respect, in Japan demand deposits seem to possess very similar characteristics to cash over recent years.     

Financial development,financial liberalization and social capital

The relationship between financial liberalization policies and financial development is controversial. The impact of these policies differs greatly across countries. In the literature, the quality of formal institutions has been identified as an important source of this heterogeneity, as countries with a weak institutional environment generally fail to benefit from financial liberalization. Using panel data covering 82 countries for the period 1973–2008, we find evidence that social capital may substitute for formal institutions as a prerequisite for effective financial liberalization policies. In particular, we find that during the post Washington-consensus period countries with a high prevailing level of social capital can ensure that financial liberalization positively influences financial development, despite the poor quality of their formal institutions.     

Financial liberalization,financial regulation and bank efficiency: a multi-country analysis

This article investigates the impact of financial reforms on bank efficiency. More specifically, we distinguish between two different types of financial reforms, i.e. financial liberalization measures and measures of the quality of bank regulation and supervision (i.e. financial regulation), and study their relationship to bank efficiency separately. Moreover, we analyse whether the impact of financial liberalization on bank efficiency is conditional on the quality of regulation and supervision of the banking system. We apply stochastic frontier analysis to calculate bank efficiency at the individual bank level and use a new and detailed database that measures different aspects of financial reforms. The data-set consists of 87 312 bank-year observations covering 61 countries for the period 1996–2005. Overall, we show that the impact of financial liberalization policies on bank efficiency is conditional on the extent to which bank regulation and supervision has been adopted and developed.     

An Institutional Perspective to Finance and Development as an Alternative to Financial Liberalisation

This paper argues that financial liberalisation as practiced recently worldwide engenders widespread financial crises precisely because of the weak foundations of its theoretical framework and poor empirical performance. Financial liberalisation is critically evaluated on both theoretical and empirical grounds, which suggests that an alternative is vitally necessary. Based on institutional theory,a new approach is proposed the focus of which is on ways to affect financial and banking transformation that is more consistent with economic development. We demonstrate how this theoretical approach can be applied in the real world, and indeed how the theoretical propositions we put forward in this contribution, very different from those of financial liberalisation, produce a more developmentally oriented set of policies for the countries that are prepared to pursue them.     

Carl Menger and the network theory of money

Carl Menger has occasionally been cited as a forerunner to the network theory of money. This article analyses Carl Menger's monetary theory and evaluates whether he was aware of the network characteristic of money from a retrospective angle. The result is mixed. Menger is one of the first to discuss the marketability and liquidity of an asset, which in German he denotes Absatzfähigkeit. This concept has a strong connection with the network aspect of a commodity. However, he is not distinct enough in his analysis and there is a lack of depth in his understanding.     

Limited participation,private money,and credit in a spatial model of money

Summary. The purpose of this paper is to explore the implications of private money issue for the effects of monetary policy, for optimal policy, and for the role of fiat money. A locational model is constructed which gives an explicit account of the role for money and credit, and for limited financial market participation. When private money issue is prohibited, there is a liquidity effect as the result of a money injection from the central bank, but this effect goes away when private money is permitted. Private money issue changes dramatically the nature of optimal monetary policy. With private money, fiat currency is no longer used in transactions involving goods, but currency and central bank reserves play an important part in the clearing and settlement of private money returned for redemption.Received: 5 May 2003, Revised: 1 December 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E4, E5.The author thanks seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Duke University, conference participants at the Texas Monetary Conference at U.T. Austin, February 2002, and the Conference on Recent Developments in Money and Finance at Purdue University, May 2003, as well as Gabriele Camera, Ed Nosal, Will Roberds, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

结构式凯恩斯乘数理论与积极财政政策优化——基于消费矩阵的实证研究

2007年以来中国经济发展的外部环境急剧恶化,如何通过积极财政政策扩大内需成为当前最为关键的问题.国内外的经验和教训表明,积极财政政策发挥效应是有条件的,为了启动处于衰退中的经济,政府不仅需要采取扩张性的政策干预经济,而且由于各部门的乘数效应不同,政府更需要采取结构性的干预政策,通过对不同产业部门的不同支出以改进财政政策效率.文章回顾了国内外在结构式凯恩斯乘数理论领域的研究进展情况,认为结构式乘数的基础研究与应用实践,将为中国政府应对外部冲击和经济衰退风险提供更加科学的分析视角与更加丰富的决策手段.     

Wealth effects on money demand in the euro area

We investigate the determinants of money demand (M3) in the euro area, considering that this variable remains an important co-determinant of monetary policy making by the European Central Bank. Regressing the real stock of M3 on real GDP, interest rates and wealth variables (real housing and stock prices) within an error-correction framework provides evidence of positive wealth effects on money demand in the long run. Correcting for this wealth effect, money demand in the euro area has grown almost exactly in line with the official reference value of 4 1/2% per annum. This article builds on research that was conducted in preparation of the annual OECD Economic Survey of the euro area and reported in Boone et al. (2004). The authors thank their colleagues in the Economics Department and the European Central Bank and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. The authors assume full responsibility for any remaining errors and omissions. The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily represent those of the OECD or its member countries     

动量化货币的哲学原理与经济学实验

运动是宇宙物质的普遍存在方式,货币的基本特征是运动。笔者尝试把物理学的动量定理与经济学的交易方程式进行类比,将货币量与货币速度结合起来,建立了动量化货币的指标。对动量化货币、传统货币与货币服务指数(圣路易斯联邦储备银行的指数货币)进行的经验分析表明:动量化货币具有绝对的比较优势;货币的交易速度是重要的宏观经济变量;货币的重要性依赖于它的数量和速度。主流经济学派排斥货币的交易速度,是经济理论的重大失误。     

Financial development and relationship evolvement among money supply,economic growth and inflation: a comparative study from the U.S. and China

With the rapid development of financial markets, economic financialization degree can no longer be ignored for its influence on the relationship among money supply, economic growth and inflation. Combined with the horizontal comparison of China, this article concentrates on the financial development and evolution from the period of industrialization to economic financialization in the U.S., systematic and comprehensive analysis is first done on the variation of overall economic operation. Then impulse response function based on VAR model is applied to study the dynamic influence of economic financialization degree on the relationship evolvement. The empirical results show that economic financialization makes good explanation of the deviating phenomenon among money supply, economic growth and inflation, and the interactive relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is becoming closer and closer. Furthermore, compared to the U.S., China still belongs to the process of transforming from the period of industrialization to economic financialization.     

Financial liberalization and the relationship-specificity of exports

We investigate the causal impact of equity market liberalizations on sectoral export performance across 91 countries (1980–1997). The increased availability of external finance has boosted trade of industries that intensively use relationship-specific inputs, and lowered exports of industries using standardized inputs.     

Liberalisation,Financial Risk,and Formal Financial Participation in Pakistan: Hyperinflationary Microeconomic Responses to Moderate Volatility in a Developing Economy

With formal financial inclusion much lower than its neighbours, Pakistan has been the focus of intensive efforts to ‘bank’ the ‘unbanked’. Yet, after a drop in deposits in the wake of Pakistan’s 2008 crisis, deposits are still struggling to return to their mid-1990s’ levels. Focusing on distortions in the banking sector, the Central Bank attributes this to ‘crowding out’ amidst a steep rise in the propensity to consume. This study draws on extensive fieldwork, identifying heightened financial risk driven by multifaceted monetary instability since the liberalisation of the rupee and of Pakistani markets. It proposes that heightened monetary risk has translated into a broad-based shift out of the rupee akin to hyperinflationary responses, but revealed in relatively moderate monetary conditions. It argues that, exposed to global markets, national currency itself has become a risky asset, pushing store-of-value and transactional holdings into unconventional liquid assets. This suggests that monetary stability, expressed in the currency itself and in broader pricing patterns in the economy, is key to the uptake of financial intermediation. The issue at the root of disintermediation in Pakistan, it is argued, is less one of ‘crowding out’ than of disruption to the role of national currency as money itself.     

Intertemporal complementarity and money in an economy out of equilibrium

The role of money clearly stands up in a truly irreversible process of economic change, like the building up of an altogether new productive capacity. Money has an essential role in this process, although not in the usual sense of modifying the real equilibria of the economy. As a matter of fact the problem to be faced in the context considered-where focus is on the process of change in itself rather than on its outcome-is theviability of the process of change. This paper shows that it is indeed the availability of financial resources at the right moment during the process that determines its viability, and that this stresses the fact that, out of equilibrium,real choices cannot be separated from financial decisions.     

A simple search model of money with heterogeneous agents and partial acceptability

Summary. Simple search models have equilibria where some agents accept money and others do not. We argue such equilibria should not be taken seriously. This is unfortunate if one wants a model with partial acceptability. We introduce heterogeneous agents and show partial acceptability arises naturally and robustly. There can be multiple equilibria with different degrees of acceptability. Given the type of heterogeneity we allow, the model is simple: equilibria reduce to fixed points in [0,1]. We show that with other forms of heterogeneity equilibria are fixed points in set space, and there is no method to reduce this to a problem in R¹.Received: 4 September 2002, Revised: 23 September 2002JEL Classification Numbers: C78, E40.A. Shevchenko, R. Wright: We thank seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Indiana University, Purdue University, University of Toronto, the 2002 Midwest Macroeconomics Conference at Vanderbilt University, and the 2001 Conference on Economic Dynamics at the University of Essex. The National Science Foundation and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provided financial support. Braz Ministerio de Camargo and Gabriel Camera provided some helpful suggestions. Correspondence to: R. Wright     

Distributional aspects of the divisibility of money: an example

Summary. I highlight the importance of the distributional aspects of moneys divisibility by comparing a search-theoretic model with random transfers of indivisible money balances, to one with deterministic transfers of partially divisible balances. Randomization allows price flexibility, as if money were fully divisible. Partial divisibility does not, but allows money redistributions. An example of the relevance of such extensive margin aspects of divisibility is provided.JEL Classification Numbers: D30, D83, E40.I thank Dean Corbae and seminars participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, University of Texas at Austin, Purdue University, the Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings, the Central Bank Institute of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and the meetings of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory, where this work has been presented during the years 2002 and 2003.     

Trend productivity growth and the government spending multiplier

The paper analyzes the effects of government spending shocks under alternative rates of trend growth in a New-Keynesian model characterized by price and wage rigidity. We show that the presence of trend growth makes the impact on output and consumption of government spending shocks smaller but more persistent with a hump shaped impulse response. Our results imply that the impact government spending multiplier decreases while the cumulative multiplier increases with trend growth.