Supply and Demand in the Theory of Long-run Growth: Introduction to a symposium on demand-led growth

Recent developments in growth theory have encouraged a revisionist interpretation of the field. According to this interpretation long-run growth should be, and always has been, interpreted as a supply-side process. The focus of this symposium is the macro-economics of demand-led growth. As a precursor to the contributions that follow, two central insights of demand-led growth theory are highlighted. First, chronic effective demand problems create a role for aggregate demand in determining the utilization rates of productive resources, even in the long run. Second, the demand-led actual rate of growth influences both the accumulation and productivity of factor inputs, and hence the economy's potential rate of growth.     

Pricing the Groove: hedonic equation estimates for rare vinyl records

ABSTRACT

This contribution adds to the economic literature on the market value of rarity in markets for cultural collectible goods by studying the price of rare audio recordings (chiefly vinyl) sold on the online marketplace Discogs. Community-based variables serve as proxies for (inverse) rarity and (potential) demand. Results show that the elasticity of price with respect to our measure of inverse rarity (demand) ranges between ?0.120 and ?0.140 (0.150 and 0.160). In addition, effects of hedonic characteristics such as the popularity or collectibility of an artist can be identified. Finally, the study provides evidence for premia for rarity at the top end of the distribution of prices.     

How stable is the demand for money in Greece?

Abstract

The cointegration technique is now a common method of estimating any money demand function. Numerous studies that applied this technique to estimate the money demand function in Greece, interpreted their finding of cointegration as a sign of stable money demand. In this paper, after incorporating CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests into cointegration analysis, we show that even though M1 and M2 monetary aggregates are cointegrated with income and interest rate, the M2 money demand function is unstable while M1 is stable.     

Effective Demand: Securing the Foundations

Abstract

This paper is one of three contributions to a symposium commenting on papers previously published by the other authors. Allain (Allain, O. (2009) Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, 21, pp. 1–22) argues that Keynes elides a distinction between aggregate demand and global expenditure that is necessary to explain the formation of price expectations by individual entrepreneurs. Allain's conclusions depend upon redefinitions of aggregate and effective demand and the consumption function. Hartwig (Hartwig, J. (2007) Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the principle of effective demand, European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 14, pp. 725–739) argues that entrepreneurs must take into account the state of the economy as a whole, in order to form price expectations independently and not as a market equilibrium determined by aggregate supply and demand. This leaves demand price expectations to be determined outside the principle of effective demand. Neither author does full justice to Keynes's own treatment. We still need to agree by what mechanism individual entrepreneurs form a collective and mutually consistent state of expectation in The General Theory.     

The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.     

Determinants of innovation behaviour and investment estimates for west-german manufacturing firms

In this paper, the determinants of innovation behaviour and investment are explored with a large micro-data panel from West-German manufacturing firms. The estimates are discussed within a microeconomic model with monopolistic competition, demand uncertainty and a delayed adjustment of capacities and the production technology. The estimates reveal positive firm-size effects which hint towards scale economies associated with innovations. Market power promotes innovations but not investment, and exporters innovate more but exhibit less investment expenditures. Finally, excess demand promotes innovations. This indicates a complementarity of innovations and investment and hints towards permanent productivity effects of temporary demand shocks.     

The challenge to china’s enterprises from increasing labor costs: the product quality perspective

ABSTRACT

Using China Employer–Employee Survey data, this paper investigates the possible heterogeneous results of increasing labor costs of different firms. The paper finds that, unskilled labors have a higher wage growth rate than the skilled labor. Firms with higher product quality employ more skilled labor, and thus are less affected by the increasing labor costs. On the other hand, firms with higher product quality have less elastic demand, which makes it possible for them to increase their prices without demand decreasing. The conclusions are well supported by the data. Therefore, we should treat the challenge of increasing labor cost in a new way. The real challenge of increasing labor cost is greater for low-quality firms. The empirical results suggest that some of the low-quality firms should upgrade their quality to a higher level to offset their labor cost increase.

Abbreviations: CEES: China Employer-Employee Survey LP: Labor productivity LTP: Lewis turing point TFP: Total factor productivity     

The existence of R&D spillovers: A cost function estimation with random coefficients

This is a study of the effects of R&D spillovers on the cost and production structures of Finnish manufacturing firms. Confidential data on firms is used to estimate a translog cost function system with random coefficients. Although the results suggest that intra-industry spillovers are present in Finnish manufacturing, the findings regarding inter-industry spillovers are inconclusive. The variable cost reduction associated with spillovers is positive, but relatively low. Spillovers reduce the demand for labor but increase the demand for materials. Spillovers also reduce the willingness to pay for capital inputs.     

Understanding alcohol consumption across countries

ABSTRACT

With unpublished data from the International Comparison Program that cover the consumption of three alcoholic beverages in over 150 countries, we analyse drinking patterns around the world with an index-number approach, by estimating a demand system, and by studying the interaction among beverages in generating utility. We consider a separate demand system for each income quartile and find that tastes are not too different across quartiles. Broadly speaking, the results are robust to rolling sub-samples of countries, an alternative demand model and sample selectivity issues. The differences in the cost of alcohol across countries are also investigated, as is its role in affecting the degree of price-sensitivity of consumption.     

On wage- and profit-led demand regimes: learning from the evidence

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical research around the “wage-led” or “profit-led” demand regimes. It first reviews how Kalecki, and then Steindl, approached the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Then, empirical analysis carried out under the probabilistic approach to econometric modeling shows statistical evidence, estimated through cointegration analysis, that in the long run, in three very open economies—Mexico, France, and Korea—the wage share is positively associated with demand and output. It finally discusses the macroeconomic dilemma that almost all countries have to face, i.e., a positive effect of a high-wage policy on demand and employment may diverge from a negative effect on output compatible with external equilibrium.     

A peculiar archaeology: Searching for Mr Giffen's behaviour

Abstract

It has been claimed that references to ‘Giffen behaviour’ constituted a single research project, driven by attempts to establish whether an initial ‘conjecture’ by Alfred Marshall had empirical validity. There is no stable basis for that claim because Marshall's discussion was contradictory and Robert Giffen rejected a key assumption made by Marshall. By the mid-1920s, discussion of an upward-sloping demand curve attached no particular significance to a Marshallian story. The formulation of the Irish famine Giffen exemplar by P.A. Samuelson illustrates how Giffen behaviour was stabilised as the single possible exception to the law of demand in the 1960s.     

Determinants and Implications of Cyclicality: Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures.     

The Point of Effective Demand

Abstract

Keynes's principle of effective demand conceives competitive equilibrium in terms of the choices of entrepreneurs, investors and consumers, rather than of the optimal allocation of factors of production. In The General Theory, effective demand is distinguished from aggregate demand and from income, expected or realised, and there is no suggestion that equilibrium means the convergence of expectations. Reconsideration of Keynes's use of time and equilibrium periods leads to the conclusion that he treats employment as in continuous equilibrium, at the point of effective demand, determined by the state of expectation, the correctness of which is strictly irrelevant. The nature of the equilibrium represented by the point of effective demand is here described, not in terms of the multiplier, but in terms of the continuous equilibrium of supply and demand in short-term forward markets. This reading is faithful to Keynes's conception of aggregate demand as dependent upon the expectations of entrepreneurs, and it resolves the meaning of his ‘long-period employment.’ Formal appendices identify the differences between Keynes and Walras and the nature of the multiplier. The paper concludes that the Keynesian cross and ‘Swedish’ analysis should be abandoned, and the Walrasian conception recognised as only the limiting case of general competitive equilibrium in a monetary economy.     

Strategic Product R&D Investment Policy under International Rivalry in the Presence of Demand Spillover Effects

Abstract

We develop a model of product (i.e., quality-improving) research and development (R&D) investment competition in a horizontally differentiated duopoly. In particular, based on a third-country market model, we consider the optimal product R&D investment policy under international rivalry in the presence of demand spillover effects associated with improving the quality level of a product. We show how the optimality of a non-cooperative and a cooperative R&D investment policy depends on the strength of demand spillover effects. Furthermore, we consider the same issues in the case of heterogeneous consumers and alternative utility functions.     

Solving Foreign Trade Puzzles in Post-Communist Transition

This article deals with the foreign trade of East-Central European countries in post-communist transition. It is primarily concerned with explaining certain early transition developments, unexpected and often neglected by policy makers and experts alike. The contribution of foreign trade to the generally unexpected steep output fall registered by each of these countries is discussed, stressing the inevitability of the disappearance of distorted demand patterns with the fall of communism and explaining why distorted demand was bound to affect not only the level of domestic output but also imports associated with the distorted demand. Exports to other former CMEA countries therefore fell precipitously. Other issues analysed in the article concern causes and beneficial effects of the rapid Westward reorientation of foreign trade, as well as the disappearance of another legacy of the communist past, East-Central European Countries', that is dual export structure.     

Growth Rate and Level Effects,the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier

Abstract

The paper presents a simple but complete formal version of the Sraffian supermultiplier model in which (i) growth is led by the autonomous components of demand that do not create capacity; (ii) private productive investment is an induced expenditure; and (iii) income distribution is exogenous. We show that the main results of the long-period and fully adjusted versions of the model in terms of growth rate and level effects are quite similar and therefore that such results in no way require the full adjustment of capacity to demand. We then analyze a simple set of sufficient dynamic local stability conditions that allow the long-period positions to gravitate towards the fully adjusted position in which capacity is adjusted to demand and that also provide the upper limit to demand-led growth paths. Finally, we show how some critics of the model have misinterpreted it as being supply-led and how this has led to a further confusion between the analysis of the tendency towards a constant value of the capacity-saving-determined warranted rate of growth and the proper stability analysis of the opposite process of adjusting capacity to demand (which tends to adjust the warranted rate endogenously to the growth rate of autonomous demand).     

Firm-level productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean

While the accumulation of factors of production, both physical and human capital, has helped Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to narrow the income gap with developed economies, aggregate productivity is still relatively low. Although there are numerous determinants of aggregate productivity, it is largely based on the underlying productivity of all firms in the economy. Using firm-level data from several waves of the World Bank Enterprise Survey and Chile's National Manufacturing Survey, we explore the ‘what’ question on productivity dispersion in LAC. We document three stylized facts: (i) there are significant differences in firm productivity within industries – the firm at the 90th percentile of the productivity distribution produces almost seven times as much output (using the same measured inputs) as the 10^th percentile firm; (ii) productivity differences persist over time – regressing a firm's current productivity on its one-year lagged productivity yields an autoregressive coefficient of around 0.9; and (iii) most of the growth in aggregate productivity comes from improvements in the productivity of existing firms.     

Modelling with flexibility through the business cycle: using a panel smooth transition model to test for the lipstick effect

ABSTRACT

Consumer spending typically declines during periods of economic distress, but observers have noted that lipstick purchases appear to increase during recessions, which is often referred to as the lipstick effect. However, the existence of such effect has remained empirically unconfirmed. Using weekly retail scanner data on lipstick sales from 2006 to 2016 in the United States, we applied a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) demand model to test the relationship between economic distress and lipstick sales. This flexible demand specification allows regression coefficients to vary as a function of an exogenous macroeconomic variables and fluctuate asymmetrically, non-linearly, and time-varyingly across an unlimited number of regimes. Empirical results show the income elasticity of demand for lipstick decreased rapidly from 0.31 to 0.05 during the 2007–2009 recession, then slowly rebounded to 0.31 by the second quarter of 2014, thus first empirically confirming the existence of the lipstick effect.     

Unemployment durations and local labour market conditions

ABSTRACT

Unemployment durations vary across local authority districts in the UK. We explore the extent to which this variation is explained by differences in local labour demand as opposed to composition, business cycle and regional effects. We use seventeen waves of the British Household Panel Survey to identify the determinants of the duration of unemployment spells. Once we adjust for individual-level, business cycle and regional controls, we do not find evidence that living in a local authority district with relatively high unemployment is associated with longer spells of unemployment. This indicates that differences in labour demand operate at larger geographic scales, such as between large regions. Our findings have implications for the design of policies to help high unemployment districts.     

A new model to evaluate the long-term cost effectiveness of orphan and highly specialised drugs following listing on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme: the Bosentan Patient Registry

Abstract

Background: Pharmaceutical subsidy schemes are under increasing pressure to evaluate the cost effectiveness of new highly specialised and orphan drugs for universal subsidy. In the absence of longer-term outcome data, drug sponsors often present modelled data, which can carry a significant level of uncertainty over longer-term projections. Risk-sharing schemes between drug sponsor and government may provide an acceptable method of balancing the uncertainty of longer-term cost effectiveness with the public demand for equitable and timely access to new drugs.

Methods: The Bosentan Patient Registry (BPR) is an example of a unique risk-sharing model utilised in Australia aiming to provide clinical evidence to support the modelled predictions, with the registry survival outcomes linked to future price. Concomitant medication, health and vital status data was collected from clinicians, government health departments and death registries.

Results: The BPR has identified a number of issues surrounding registry governance, ethics and patient privacy, and the collection of timely and accurate data, which need to be addressed for the development of a generic registry model for systematic evaluation.

Conclusion: The success of a generic drug registry model based on the BPR will be enhanced by addressing a number of operational issues identified during the implementation of this project.

Material in this paper was presented in an oral presentation to the National Medicines Symposium: Quality Use of Medicines, 7–9 June 2006, Canberra, Australia.