GDP dynamics and unemployment changes in developed and developing countries

We design a new specification of Okun’s model that takes the following features into account: estimation of the relation in first differences, the possible lagged effect of GDP dynamics on unemployment changes, the persistence of unemployment rate dynamics, the possible different values of Okun coefficients under recession (with respect to periods of increases in GDP), the existence of cross-country institutional and structural differences (i.e. country-specific Okun coefficients), the additional effect on unemployment caused by large adverse shocks such as financial crises.

A distinctive feature of this article is its consideration of a large set of countries for which we find differentiated Okun coefficients. Moreover, we focus in particular on the distinction between developed and developing countries, and on the additional impact of financial crises. From an econometric point of view, the model developed belongs in the family of linear mixed-effects models. The estimation method uses an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Our results confirm the general validity of ‘Okun’s law’; they show the Okun coefficient differences between high- and low-income countries; and they evidence an additional impact of some types of financial crisis on the unemployment dynamics of developed economies.     

Unemployment,institutions, and interdependencies: identifying successful reforms

Labor market reforms, which reduce institutional rigidities, are assumed to be a well-suited approach to lower unemployment. However, it is still not perfectly clear which reforms actually lead to a fall in unemployment. One crucial issue is that reforms do not work in isolation, but have labor market effects which depend on other institutional factors. Such institutional interactions have rarely been considered in empirical macroeconomic studies in a systematic way, mainly due to model uncertainty. As a solution to this problem, a Bayesian model averaging approach is adopted in this paper to identify robust and significant institutional interactions for unemployment. Using a panel data-set for 17 OECD countries from 1982 to 2005, five robust and significant interaction terms are identified, and country-specific reform effects for the institutional indicators are derived.     

The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?

The migrant crisis is one of the most challenging tasks the EU has ever faced. This paper uses a Panel Error Correction Model to assess the direction of the impact of immigration on domestic unemployment, in the short and in the long run, for a sample of 15 EU countries between 1997 and 2016. We test for different effects in core and periphery countries based on differences in macroeconomic fundamentals and labor market characteristics. In the long run, immigration is found to reduce unemployment in peripheral countries only, whereas in the short run, we find that immigration reduces unemployment for the whole sample. However, country-specific coefficients based on interactions with labour market characteristics indicate that short-run impacts are larger in Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon countries. Conversely, Italy, Greece and Portugal show the smallest impacts. Our results suggest that negative sentiments toward immigration due to labour market competition are mostly unjustified.     

Revisiting the Okun relationship

Our article revisits the Okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2013. We find that the share of temporary workers (which includes a high and rising share of young workers) played a crucial role in explaining changes in the Okun coefficient (the impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate) over time. The Okun coefficient is not only different for young, prime-age and older workers but also it decreases with age. From a policy perspective, it follows that an increase in economic growth will not only have the desired outcome of reducing the overall unemployment rate but it will also have the distributional effect of lowering youth unemployment.     

Restrictive Macroeconomic Policies and Unemployment in the European Union

This paper looks at the impact the European integration process has had on the unemployment level of European Union member countries. While the persistence of relatively high unemployment in Europe is often attributed to supply-side factors, such as the rigidities of the labour market, this study contends that the major cause for the rise of unemployment in the EU has been the very macroeconomic policies of the EU itself. The paper argues that the continuous pursuit of deflationary policies and the macroeconomic constraint imposed first by the membership of the European Monetary System and, secondly, by the convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty, have been the real impediments to reducing unemployment.     

Does the ban on trans-fats improve public health? In search of the optimal policy response

This paper examines the contribution of the regulatory ban on trans-fats and voluntary trans-fat regulation to public health outcomes for a sample of 39 countries in the period 1990–2015. To this end, we exploit within-country variation in trans-fat legislation to estimate the impact of the trans fat ban on cardiovascular mortality and obesity rates. Our difference-in-difference estimates indicate modest and beneficial effects of the trans-fats ban in reducing cardiovascular mortality and obesity rate. We find that the ban on trans fats tends to decrease the mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular diseases while the effects on the obesity rates are significant, especially among children and adolescent age group. By contrast, voluntary regulation of trans fats and demand-driven regulatory strategies are generally not associated with a marked drop in the obesity rate. By controlling for country-specific time trends, we show that the estimated mortality- and obesity-related impact of the ban is not driven by pre-existing trends, and does not affect non-cardiovascular mortality rate.

     

Drowned by numbers? Stabilization properties of an EU-wide unemployment insurance system

The recent crisis has given rise to proposals for the creation of a European unemployment insurance system. We simulate an EU-wide mechanism under various scenarios, varying methods of financing (common or country-specific contribution rates) and triggers for pay-outs (all time or contingent clauses). We analyse the impact of the system using different measures of stabilization under different fiscal multipliers. A system operating during bad times (periods where the increase in unemployment is large) would reduce GDP growth variability but also growth correlation among member countries. Hence, there is a trade-off between stabilization and synchronization of national business cycles.     

What Have We Learned about the Employment Effects of Severance Pay? Further Iterations of Lazear Et al.

In this study we examine the effect of severance pay on employment and unemployment, using data on industrialized OECD countries. Our starting point is Lazear’s [(1990) Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, 699–726] dictum that severance payment requirements unfavorably impact the labor market. We extend his sample period and add to his parsimonious specification a variety of fixed and time-varying labor market institutions. While the positive effect of severance pay on unemployment garners some support, there is no real indication of adverse effects in respect of the other employment outcomes identified here, namely, the employment-population ratio, the labor force participation rate, and long-term unemployment. Moreover, with the possible exception of collective bargaining coordination, the role of institutions is also more muted than suggested in the literature. We thank, without implicating, an anonymous referee for most helpful comments on the first draft of this paper.     

Redistribution,trade and corruption: an empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

This article explores the role of institutional quality in the trade and inequality nexus. Does corruption shape the relationship between trade and inequality through its impact on redistribution? Our answer to this question builds on the hypothesis that trade raises inequality and that governments may want to intervene through appropriate redistribution schemes that aim at taxing the gains from trade in a way that offsets the negative effects of trade on inequality. Moreover, we argue that this mechanism may be distorted by corruption and bad institutions in general. Quite to the contrary to common wisdom, we find that trade reduces inequality in countries with high institutional standards by means of a low level of corruption but increases inequality in countries with low levels of institutional quality.     

Trade openness and child health: a heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we examine the impact of trade openness on child health, based on a cross-country panel data set covering 66 countries for the period 1960–2013. To account for the time-series properties of the data and potential cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of trade openness, the study employs heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques that are robust to omitted variables and endogeneity problems. The results reveal that trade openness and child health are cointegrated, and that trade works to reduce the child mortality rate significantly in the long-run. The results are robust to the methodology and trade openness and child health indicators employed, as well as to the presence of cross-sectional dependence and changes in the sample composition. The findings also suggest that the impact of trade on child health tends to be stronger in countries with better institutional quality, lower corruption, good governance, political stability, and sound policies that promote private sector development.     

Is Tinkering with Institutional Quality a Panacea for Firm Performance? Insights from a Semiparametric Approach to Modeling Firm Performance

There is a large and growing literature on the impact of institutional quality on economic performance and the broad consensus is that “good” institutions facilitate better economic performance. The literature that provides micro‐level support for the policy discourse about institutional quality does not, however, account for significant intra‐country variation in reactions of firms to changes in business environments, even within the same industry, and it generally ignores the possibility that the impact of institutional quality on firm performance may not be neutral. In this paper, we analyze the impact of institutions on firm performance using an approach that enables us to overcome these problems with the stylized approach. Using cross‐country firm‐level data, we demonstrate that not only does the marginal impact of institutional quality vary significantly within countries, but also that the impact is economically significant only at the two extremes of the distribution. We view this as prima facie evidence that policies that tinker with institutional quality on the basis of the popular wisdom about the impact of these institutions on the average firm may not have the desired or expected impact, at least at the micro level.     

WHAT CAN CHANGES IN STRUCTURAL FACTORS TELL US ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE?

This paper examines the impact of temporal variation in labour market institutions and other structural factors on unemployment in Europe. A system comprising a labour demand and a wage equation is estimated on pooled time‐series data for the six largest EU countries for the 1980s and 1990s. The results suggest that changes in regional mismatch, trade union density and the ratio between consumer and producer prices are positively associated with structural unemployment. This result is robust to a wide variety of different specifications. No consistent role is found for other institutional factors (such as social security benefits, employment security and minimum wage).     

The Nature of Institutional Change in Transition

Contemporary empirical evidence of transition in Central and East European countries proves the importance of institutional change, as was claimed by advocates of this field of transition. The article assesses institutional change in the first phases of transition from the perspective of competing strategies: rapid changes versus gradualism. After pointing to some inconsistencies in this debate, the article discusses the possibility and prospects for development of a market for institutions in European transition countries. The main criterion which is used is the requirement for the rule of law as one of the foundations of a market economy. It concludes that undeveloped endogenous factors of institutional change still do not enable development of markets for institutions. Reluctance of national governments to act according to a long-run perspective is at present to a certain extent compensated by the presence of external factors of institutional change.     

New Powers and the Distribution of Preferences in Global Trade Governance: From Deadlock and Drift to Fragmentation

ABSTRACT

Existing theories make divergent predictions about the impact of new powers on the global political economy. Some argue that a more even distribution of power will erode international cooperation, while others argue that cooperation can continue with the help of international institutions to overcome collective action problems. We argue that this debate overlooks a critical determinant of the shape of power transitions: the distribution of preferences amongst the major powers. It is primarily in the context of divergent preferences that power transitions are likely to give rise to conflict. Moreover, even where preferences diverge, the gains of cooperation provide a strong incentive to continue to pursue goals through multilateralism. This situation leads to forms of institutional change unanticipated by established theories. These include deadlock in expansive multilateral fora, institutional drift as old rules cannot keep up with the changing political and economic context, and fragmentation as countries seek minilateral solutions that reduce preference diversity. We develop this preference-based, institutional argument by examining the distribution of preferences and institutional change at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its Doha Round, where the power transition is relatively advanced.     

Regional and gender differentials in the persistence of unemployment in Europe

The persistence of unemployment increased during the recent great recession in many European countries, although with diversified impacts. We therefore analyse such impacts in four European countries – Italy, Spain, France and the UK – which represent different institutional frameworks and may reflect the so-called continental European and Anglo-Saxon frameworks. We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence using individual-level data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) panel for the period 2007–2013. These data enable us to take into account initial conditions and state dependence in addition to individual and household characteristics. We focus on gender and regional effects, which have a strong impact on the persistence in the state of unemployment. We find that gender gap is significant in Italy and the UK, implying that male workers show a higher probability of remaining unemployed. In Italy, such a pattern is due to the worsening of male workers’ conditions during the crisis, whereas in the UK, male workers show higher unemployment rates than women. Regional effects are significant in all countries analysed and underline a relevant structural factor that should be addressed on policy grounds in Europe. Such effects are greater in Spain and Italy.     

When does FDI have positive spillovers? Evidence from 17 transition market economies

We use rich firm-level data and national input–output tables from 17 countries over the 2002–2005 period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). We document that backward linkages have a consistently positive effect on productivity of domestic firms while horizontal and forward linkages show no consistent effect. We also examine how the strength of spillovers varies by sector, FDI source, institutional environment (corruption, red tape, level of development), firm’s distance to the technological frontier, and other firm- and country-specific characteristics.     

Cost analysis: treatment of chemotherapy-induced anemia with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents in five European countries

Abstract

Objective:

Cost-analysis comparing darbepoetin-alfa (DARB), epoetin-alfa (EPO-A), and epoetin-beta (EPO-B) for treatment of chemotherapy-induced anemia in Belgium concluded that costs for DARB-treated patients were significantly lower than costs for EPO-A- or EPO-B-treated patients. The objective of the present study was to extend the Belgian analysis to Austria, France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, estimating differences in costs between erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) in each country.

Methods:

Differences in epidemiology and treatment patterns between countries were adjusted using data from Eurostat, national cancer registries, IMS sales data, and reimbursement and treatment guidelines. Belgian unit costs were replaced with country-specific costs. Costs were analyzed using a mixed-effects model stratifying for propensity score quintiles.

Results:

All populations were comparable to the Belgian population in terms of age, gender, ESA, and blood transfusions use. After adjusting for country-specific chemotherapy use and cancer incidence, total management costs per patient (Euro, 2010) were 19–26% (France, Spain) lower with DARB compared with EPO-A (p?<?0.0001) and 20–36% (Portugal, Austria) compared with EPO-B (p?<?0.01). Anemia-related costs with DARB were between 12% (Portugal; p?=?0.0235) and 38% (Italy; p?<?0.0001) lower compared with EPO-A (p?<?0.01; all remaining countries), and between 13% (Austria; p?=?0.064) and 19% (Portugal; p?=?0.0028) lower compared with EPO-B (p?<?0.05; all remaining countries except Italy; p?=?0.0935).

Limitations:

Not all differences could be accounted for by a lack of country-specific data; however, the potential under- and over-estimation of costs should be similar for all three ESAs.

Conclusions:

These findings are in line with the Belgian analysis. In all countries, total and anemia-related costs were lowest in patients receiving DARB vs EPO-A or EPO-B. This study demonstrates the feasibility of adapting real-life country-specific data to other settings, adjusting for differences in patients’ characteristics and treatment strategies. These findings should be valuable in healthcare decision-making in oncology patients treated in each of the countries studied.     

The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

Distance and beyond: What drives financial flows to emerging economies?

A major theme in the empirical literature is whether country-specific ‘pull’ or external ‘push’ factors drive international capital flows. In this paper we show that pull-push interactions matter: the response of international investors to country-specific developments depends on global volatility/liquidity stress conditions. We model asset-trade behaviour of investors: with limited information, strong institutional quality ‘pulls’ asset demand; mounting tensions in global markets amplify portfolio adjustments. We derive an empirically testable equation for cross-border bank flows to emerging economies (EMEs) and focus on pull-push interactions that trigger financial vulnerabilities. We find that global volatility amplifies demand for institutional quality, prior to the recent crisis, implying that EMEs with weak institutional settings are exposed to sharp capital retrenchments. In the aftermath of the crisis, the liquidity easing in advanced economies drives down concerns for EMEs' developments, boosting flows and challenging EMEs' ability to use capital controls to mitigate unbridled flows.     

A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies

This paper analyses the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the eight countries from Central and Eastern Europe which joined the EU in 2004. Unit root tests allowing for nonlinearities and structural changes suggest that the unemployment rate is not stationary in most of the sample countries. Tests allowing for fractional integration, however, reveal that shocks are highly persistent, implying a slow rate of convergence to the natural rate of unemployment. The unemployment rate is least persistent in Hungary and Slovenia, more persistent in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltic States and extremely persistent in Poland. The degree of persistence appears to reflect the different levels of economic and institutional development in the countries and possibly also the role of the government.