共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
文章对资本账户开放程度以及法定与事实汇率制度之差异的共同决定过程进行了研究。文章以世界各国自布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来的相关数据为基础,利用离散变量联立方程模型进行计量经济学分析。经验分析的结果表明,资本账户的开放程度,对于法定与事实汇率制度的差异有显著影响,但后者对前者的影响并不显著。此外,无论是资本账户的开放程度,还是法定与事实汇率制度的差异,都存在显著的状态依赖性。 相似文献
2.
文章分析了发展中国家汇率制度安排名与实不符现象的分布与演变,并对其成因提出了一些假说。文章使用面板数据多元混合Logit模型的计量分析发现,较高的通货膨胀导致恐惧浮动现象,而较高外汇储备或严格的资本管制则导致恐惧固定现象,这在很大程度上支持了我们提出的关于发展中国家汇率制度安排名与实不符现象成因的假说。 相似文献
3.
Anne Sulling 《Economics of Transition》2002,10(2):469-490
Estonia has been operating a currency board arrangement tied to the deutschemark, now the euro, since 1992. Optimal currency area considerations, policy orientation and the flexibility of prices and wages in Estonia support a case for monetary union with the eurozone. But the European Union requires Estonia to wait until EU accession and subsequent Eurosystem accession before it can adopt the euro. In the meanwhile, gains expected from euroization — lower and more stable interest rates, lower transactions costs in trade and increased transparency, all of which would promote trade, investments and economic growth — would be forgone. In this context, the paper raises the question, should Estonia go ahead and euroize now? JEL classification: E42, E58, F33. 相似文献
4.
It is well known that the exchange rate regime (ERR) declared to the IMF is often different from the actual regime. Several alternative schemes for de facto regime classification have been developed. In this article, we compare the ability of four popular schemes to track exchange rate variability (ERV). We find that the existing ERR classifications do not match well with the degree of ERV, especially for intermediate regimes. For instance, in the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2003) coding, the intermediate regimes exhibit greater ERV than the floaters. On the other hand, for the Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) coding, the fixers show greater variability than some intermediates. 相似文献
5.
基于2005年7月～2011年2月的省际月度数据,通过面板协整和面板GLS方法对人民币汇率的传递效应进行了实证研究。研究表明,人民币汇率传递弹性的估计值为0．22,即人民币汇率升值1％导致CPI增加0．22％;对国内物价水平影响最为明显的是货币发行量以及通货膨胀预期,两者对物价的影响弹性系数分别达到0．484和0．46。 相似文献
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7.
Emiliano Libman 《International Review of Applied Economics》2018,32(1):39-61
The literature on exchange rate regimes has paid little attention to the effects of exchange rate policies on real exchange rate misalignments. This paper contributes to filling that gap by exploring such relation empirically. Because the underlying model is probably not linear and the treated individuals differ from non-treated individuals, we rely on Matching models rather than on standard regressions. Our main finding is that pegs are associated with more overvaluation. The results are robust to different exchange rate regime classifications, misalignment indexes, and matching estimators. The evidence presented suggests that policy-makers concerned with overvaluation should avoid sticking with rigid arrangements for too long. 相似文献
8.
Leslie Elliott Armijo 《New Political Economy》2015,20(1):42-62
‘Financial statecraft’, or the intentional use of credit, investment and currency levers by the incumbent governments of creditor – and sometimes debtor – states for both international economic and political advantage, has a long history, ranging from money doctors to currency wars. A neorealist, zero-sum framing of international monetary relations is not inevitable, yet casts a persistent shadow especially during periods of prospective interstate power transitions when previously peripheral countries find themselves with unexpected new capabilities. This article seeks to understand and theorise the financial statecraft of emerging economies, moving beyond the traditional understanding that closely identifies the concept with financial sanctions imposed by a strong state on a weaker state. We propose that the aims of financial statecraft may be either ‘defensive' or ‘offensive’. Financial statecraft may be targeted either ‘bilaterally' or ‘systemically’. Finally such statecraft may employ instruments that are either ‘financial' or ‘monetary’. As emerging market economies have moved up in the ranks in the interstate distribution of capabilities, they have also expanded their financial statecraft strategies from narrowly defensive and bilateral to those involving offensive tactics and targeted at the global and systemic level. Historical and contemporary examples illustrate the analysis. 相似文献
9.
Capital inflows to and outflows from emerging market economies (EME) have increased significantly since 2000. This rapid increase, accompanied by a sharp rise in volatility, has amplified the complexity of macroeconomic management in EME. While foreign capital provides additional financing for productive investment and offers avenues for risk diversification, unbridled flows exacerbate financial and macroeconomic instability. In this paper, we focus on the experience of six emerging Asian economies (EAE) in dealing with capital flows. Using quarterly data, we identify the waves of capital flows experienced by these EAE and the efficacy of the various policy measures taken. The policy choices include negotiating the trilemma (i.e. balancing the need for monetary policy autonomy, exchange rate flexibility and capital account openness), as per the demands of the macroeconomic situation. The paper also analyses the extent to which intervention in the foreign exchange market and imposition of short‐term capital flow management measures have aided countries to negotiate the trilemma. The efficacy of these responses have been varied across countries, implying that a judicious mix of these measures, along with improvement in financial and institutional development, is required to effectively counter the vagaries of capital flows. 相似文献
10.
人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易影响的实证研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文在既有文献的基础上,通过结合我国经济转型的特点,研究了人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易的影响。文中提出了更加合理的模型,引入关税(出口退税额)、政府支出、贸易条件等变量,通过Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等计量方法进行了实证检验,结果表明,1978￣2005年,人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易产生负面影响。其后,运用二元离散选择模型(Logit模型)进一步对二者关系进行了考察,得出了人民币实际汇率错位幅度与净出口呈负相关的结论,即汇率错位幅度越小,越有利于出口,从而出现贸易顺差。 相似文献
11.
Terry Robinson 《International Review of Applied Economics》2006,20(2):213-221
Prior to nationalisation British gas undertakings were faced with a choice of three different regulatory schemes linking the price charged for gas with the amount of dividend that could be paid. The three schemes, the maximum price system, the sliding scale and the basic price system possessed varying incentive properties. This paper investigates, empirically, the characteristics of firms under each regime. The multinomial logit results suggest that larger firms with lower unit costs were more likely to opt for regulatory options with more powerful incentive mechanisms. 相似文献
12.
The objective of this article is to present a review of the workings of the macroeconomic policy regimes in Brazil since 2003 in order to show that both the macroeconomic policy tripod and the new macroeconomic matrix were not capable of ensuring macroeconomic stability in the medium- to long term due to their incapacity to avoid a persistent overvaluation of the real exchange rate or to stop the increasing trend in primary expenditures/gross domestic product, which produced a major fiscal crisis in 2015. 相似文献
13.
This study examines implications of the current exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic and growth performance of five Arab oil-producing countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Sudan, Algeria and Yemen. The study evaluates alternative exchange rate regime policy options towards exploring an optimal exit strategy to ensure successful transition to more sustainable exchange rate regime, especially in the fixed regime economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This study proposes the adoption of a transparent broad basket, band and crawl (BBC) regime by the Arab oil economies in order to provide a better alternative to the existing fixed pegs or dirty floats. However, it is imperative to note that, the timing of the exit from the current regime and the extent of institutional development and market sophistications are very critical to successful transition to more sustainable regime that would provide a larger scope for counter-cyclical policies and diversification in these economies. 相似文献
14.
This article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the central bank, financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures. We find that capital controls change market participants’ behaviour, and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow. Referring to the source of order flow, we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the Real is driven by financial customers’ activity. Instead, commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the Real within our model. 相似文献
15.
基于构建开放经济条件下包含内外部生产要素的多变量生产函数模型,并利用1994-2008年的省际面板数据,实证检验人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国实际产出的作用效应以及区域间的影响差异,结果表明:实际产出对人民币实际有效汇率的弹性系数为-0.179,人民币升值不利于我国的产出增长;与此同时,东、中、西和东北部四经济区域实际产出对人民币实际有效汇率的弹性系数分别为-0.280、-0.080、-0.339和-0.115,人民币升值对四经济区域的实际产出均产生不利影响,但存在着显著差异,且人民币升值会进一步拉大中国东、西部之间的经济差距。 相似文献
16.
Jesse Russell 《Applied economics》2013,45(32):4187-4197
It is difficult to pin down the factors that determine states’ choice of exchange rate regime because those very factors present a moving target. Many scholars have taken on the same question: what are the determinants of exchange rate regime choice? But as a group they have been unable to identify a stable answer. The reason for this is that the factors that best predict exchange rate regime vary dramatically across time. An explanation for this variation is offered: rational herding, or information cascades, can explain why one factor becomes prominent for a period of time then suddenly drops off and is replaced by a better predictor. 相似文献
17.
This paper uses a panel of 17 advanced countries over the annual period of 1899–2013, to analyze for the first time, the role played by geopolitical risks in predicting recessions. After controlling for other standard predictors based on a logit model, we find that while aggregate geopolitical risks do not have any predictive ability, geopolitical acts enhance the probability of future recessions, with geopolitical threats reducing the same. 相似文献
18.
中国资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
开放经济下,资本流动、利率和汇率三者相互联动、相互协调、自动平衡。利率市场化是资本账户开放和汇率制度弹性化的前提条件;资本控制程度影响利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化;利率和汇率相互作用、相互传导。一国宏观经济调控政策的效果不仅仅取决于资本控制程度和利率或汇率水平的变动,更取决于资本控制、利率和汇率三者的联动效应。中国金融自由化改革进程中,必须正确处理好资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化之间的关系,发挥三者联动协同效应,实现内外均衡。 相似文献
19.
This study examines the relationship between the labour-force age structure and industry composition in a multi-region and multi-sector framework. Relying on a panel dataset of Chinese provinces, the simultaneous equations model reveals two-way influences between age and industrial structures. Population aging induces a (an) reduced (increased) secondary-sector (tertiary-sector) employment share. The industrial structure then changes the age structure of the local labour force via the migrations of young workers as non-agricultural sectors expand. With an improved Leslie model, we predict a province-level population aging and industry structure trend. Accordingly, municipalities, developed coastal provinces and the three northeastern provinces face greater pressure from population aging and a rapid structural, industrial transformation. Further considerations of the ‘two-child policy’ via simulation results show that relaxed birth restrictions could slow population aging in some but not all these provinces. 相似文献
20.
将2003—2012年细分为8个时间段,具体分析8个时间段内中国短期国际资本流动的情况及其影响因素。结果显示:正的国内外利差对短期国际资本流入的吸引力较小;2003—2012年期间的2个短期国际资本流入高峰是由人民币快速升值引致的;高股价收益率的持续时间较短,其对短期国际资本流入的总体影响较小;正的房价收益率能够引致稳定的短期国际资本净流入。 相似文献