The Political Economy of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Empirical Evidence for Developed and Developing Countries, 1960–2010

Empirical results of testing the PPP hypothesis have constantly shown that relative prices do not converge to the same level, either in the short or the long run. Therefore, the PPP explanation of the real exchange rate does not provide a reasonable measure of competitiveness at the international level. This article puts forth a different approach based on the works of Ricardo, Marx, Harrod and Shaikh. It argues that the real relative unit labor cost is the main factor explaining the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. The second section of the article explains the theoretical underpinnings of our approach. The third section analyzes the role of the real interest rate differential in explaining real exchange rate misalignments. In the fourth section, we present a graphical analysis of the interrelation among the real effective exchange rate, the real unit labor cost ratio, the short-run real interest rate differential and the trade balance for 16 OECD countries, Taiwan and three developing countries for the period 1960–2010. The fifth section investigates the long-run relationship between the latter three indexes through co-integrating and error correction models using the ARDL–ECM framework. The last section provides our conclusions.     

The Impact of Agricultural Import Tariff on Economic Growth： Evidence From Mercosur Countries

This research paper attempts to determine the relationship between agricultural import tariff and economic growth of Mercosur countries over the period 1996-2007 using regression analysis as well as evaluates the gains and losses from the group＇s trade policy over the same period. The introductory part of this paper focuses on the dynamics of changes in economic growth, trade, and import tariff of these countries over the last two decades. The results of the performed regression analysis of panel data suggest that trade liberalization has a quantitatively significant positive effect on growth. By using the coefficient estimates on tariff, the authors perform a quantitative evaluation of gains and losses from trade policy, for which tariff measures to trade （imports） are used as a proxy.     

‘A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall’: The Global Financial Crisis and Developing Countries

The global financial crisis of 2008–09 is the deepest downturn in the world economy since the Great Depression of 1929–33. Though its effects have been felt most noticeably in the developed countries, it has affected many developing countries. This article assesses what we know about the impact of the crisis on developing countries, and how the crisis may affect long-term development outcomes. It also examines the implications of the crisis for some key issues in development policy and thinking.     

India’s Green Revolution: Economic Gains and Political Costs

Research and development (R&;D) promotion policies are critical for economic development in the sense that they contribute to technical progress. Although it is true that policy space is restricted under the World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are still some R&;D promotion policy measures made available to developing countries. It is thus necessary for developing countries to utilize such available measures. In addition to explaining the R&;D promotion measures available under the current WTO regulations, I provide suggestions for modifying the Uruguay Round Subsidies Code with respect to the R&;D promotion policies of developing countries from the viewpoint of “distributional fairness” in international trade relations.     

Economic Growth,Happiness and Socialism: Durkheim’s Critique of Economic Reason and Beyond

The paper argues that Durkheim’s positions on happiness and socialism are relevant in today’s neoliberal and post-affluent societies. Durkheim dissociates happiness from economic progress and makes it contingent upon the relationships between the individual and society. An important component of Durkheimian happiness is the dynamic equilibrium between desires and means. Therefore, his friendly criticism of the socialist project is that it promises to fulfil the desires that were released by a disembedded market economy. Durkheim’s point helps us to understand why the social democratic promise was broken and how the neoliberal imperatives of competition and unlimited wants sow unhappiness.     

U.S.-China Economic and Political Relations: Youths’ Perceptions

This paper is a study of the perceptions of young adults in the U.S. and China on the relations between the two nations. We conducted a case study by distributing a 17 question survey to 201 American undergraduate students (NYC) and 164 Chinese undergraduate students (Shanghai). The questions probed their views of U.S. and China’s economic and political systems, the future economic growth and political power in the world of the two nations, and the future political and economic relations between the two powers. The results of our study reveal a number of important perceptions that both U.S. and Chinese students have, some being similar and others being in sharp contrast. Most students in both countries view future political and economic relations between the U.S. and China predominantly as cooperative but only based on each nation’s self-interests. Both Chinese and American students agree that China is gaining political strength and economic influence among the advanced and the emerging nations of the world. While most of the U.S. students believe that China has been and will continue to grow at a much faster rate than the U.S., Chinese students are more likely to believe that this rate of growth is unsustainable. The results from our survey are compared and contrasted to the findings of national surveys for both countries. We believe that the study provides valuable insights into the similarities and differences in viewpoints of the next generation of adults in both nations about future U.S.-China relations.     

Globalization and Income Gap from the Perspective of Developing Countries

Using political economic theory, this paper analyzes the impact of economic globalization on international income distribution, including the income gap between developed countries and developing ones, the income gap among the developing countries. The paper states that because the economic globalization is the globalization of capitalism manufacture style and developed countries dominates the process, the income gap between developing countries and developed one is difficult to be narrowed, and the income gap in developing countries will enlarge.     

The Time-varying Impact of China’s Economic Rebalancing on Korea’s Exports to China

While China seeks to shift from exports and investment to a consumption-oriented economy and to increase the self-sufficiency rate of exports, this study uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) to examine the impact of economic structural changes in China on Korea’s exports to China over time. The study results suggest that the impact of China’s export shocks on Korea’s exports has weakened, which demonstrates the slowdown in regional production fragmentation, considering that Korea’s export goods are mainly intermediate goods. Instead, the influence of China’s domestic demand shock on Korea’s exports has expanded, which implies that China has increasingly become the final destination of intermediate goods made in Korea.     

The Impact of Chinese Economic Increase on Economy of Northeast Asia

Chinese economic total quantity has leaped to the sixth m the world because ot the tast development for nearly 30 years, and become the world economics powerful nation gradually. The Chinese economic growth has influenced tremendously on the world economic development. Being Chinese close neighbor, how has the Northeast Asia be influenced？ This paper will elaborate from the following three aspects： Chinese economic increase made China become important strength to promote the process of regional cooperation; Chinese economic increase made the pattern of Northeast Asian cooperation in economy and trade changed; competition and difference that Chinese economic increase brought to Northeast Asia. The increase of Chinese economic has positive influence on the economy of Northeast Asia, and is one of the powers causing the Northeast Asian economy to grow. At the same time, this kind of influence is mutual. In particular the economic cooperation with Japan is the key to establish the integration of the Northeast Asian economy.     

Empirical Regularities of Financial Market Volatility and Good Modelling Process: Developing Countries’ Exchange Rate Markets Perspective

A survey of contemporary literature suggests that empirical studies on developing economies are few or almost non-existent. Engle and Patton (2001, What good is a volatility model. Quantitative Finance, 1, 237–245) as well as Poon (2005, A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility. New Jersey: Wiley.) suggest that a good volatility model is one that utilizes the empirical regularities of financial market volatility (of which most were observed on industrialized economies markets). This paper uses exchange rate series from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania to show that;

1. they are not different from other financial markets as they exhibit most of the empirical regularities including volatility sign asymmetry, non-normal distribution and volatility clustering. It is however observed that the three exchange rate series are very volatile, with induced volatile shocks highly persistent and asymmetric, and extreme prices commonplace;

2. the ARCH technique (which has been well documented to capture these empirical regularities and produce good forecasts) generally produced a good fit to the three exchange rate series when compared with volatility forecasts generated using the EWMA technique. In the simple analysis of a day-ahead volatility forecast abilities of estimated models, it was observed that best fit does not necessarily ensure best forecast.

     

Beyond Myths,Lies and Stereotypes: The Political Economy of a ‘New Scramble for Africa’

Commentators across the political spectrum have increasingly drawn attention to a ‘new scramble for Africa’. This ‘new scramble’ marks the latest chapter of imperialist engagement, with not only Western states and corporations but also those of ‘emerging economies’ seeking to consolidate their access to African resources and markets. The ‘new scramble for Africa’ involves therefore significant transformations related to shifts in global politico-economic power. However, as this article elaborates, much of the burgeoning literature on the ‘new scramble for Africa’ is premised upon problematic substantive, theoretical and ontological claims and debates. In particular, the article seeks to challenge two commonplace and related narratives. Firstly, the highly questionable representations of the scale and perceived threat of emerging powers' (particularly China's) involvement in Africa, in contrast to the silences, hypocrisy and paternalistic representation of the historical role of the West. Second, and relatedly, debate and analysis are framed predominantly within an ahistoric statist framework of analysis, particularly that of inter-state rivalry between China and other ‘emerging’ states vs. Western powers. Absent or neglected in such accounts are profound changes in the global political economy within which the ‘new scramble for Africa’ is to be more adequately located.     

The Opportunities and Perils of Growing China's Economy

ModernizingtheeconomyhasbeenoneofthemostcontentiousandformidabletasksfacingChineseleadersinthemod ernera.SincethefoundingofthePeople'sRepublicofChina,Chineseeliteshaveexperimentedwithsemi-autarkicdevel opmentstrategiesthatemphasizednormativemeanstoenhance…     

The Efficiency of Active Labor Market Policies: A Comparative Analysis of Tunisia and OECD Countries’

ABSTRACT

On the third anniversary of the Egyptian revolution and against the backdrop of lingering political instability and deteriorating economic conditions, we diagnose the constraints to sectoral growth in Egypt using the 2011 Egyptian revolution as a natural experiment. We combine quantile regressions to study sector outliers with a difference in difference methodology to capture sectoral behavior before and after revolution. We find that the revolution's effect has been adverse, on average, but heterogeneous across sectors. We identify and characterize sectors most and least impacted. Results reveal that Egypt's fastest growing sectors before Revolution have been the most vulnerable after Revolution. This evidence is supported by our diagnosis approach that shows that faster growing sectors are constrained by continuous increases in prices that threaten export competitiveness (as they erode the benefits accrued to nominal depreciation of currency). Such sectors also benefited from higher monetary growth and fewer constraints on credit availability that have mitigated somewhat the speed of deterioration in the aftermath of the revolution. Our results, which hold under several robustness checks, inform policy priorities as to how to revive investors’ confidence, boost competitiveness, and design priorities in industrial policy to ease structural impediments and align sectoral growth with macro priorities.     

The Opportunities and Perils of Growing China's Economy

1ARemunerativeViewofCrisis:TheGreatLeapForwardTheGreatLeapForwardwasthefirstandperhapsmostseriousendogenouslygeneratedcrisistofacetheChineseleadership.OneyearafterZhouEnlai shumiliatingapologyforblocking“rashadvance”,studentsandteachersatPekingUniversit…     

The New Division of Labor in the Globalized Economy: Women’s Challenges and Opportunities

The way in which the new international division of labor (NIDL) in the globalized economy affects gender inequalities has not been sufficiently explored yet. The body of literature on commodity chains that has attempted to assess the welfare effects of the NIDL, especially in less developed countries, has paid sparse attention to gender issues. Globalization has entailed the deverticalization of commodity supply chains and the emergence of highly concentrated financial groups and transnational companies linked to a network of firms operating as affiliates and suppliers, namely the global commodity chains. The NIDL could worsen gender inequality, due to the particular organizational strategies in global commodity chains that privilege power, instead of trust and market exchange, as the major form of governance and means for resource allocation. Because women represent the poorest swathe of the world’s population, they suffer the most from the growing wealth inequality and the concentration of power produced by the NIDL. Moreover, because of the traditional sexual division of labor and because of their low status in society, women are the most harshly exploited subjects in the system. The general conclusion of the paper is that in the NIDL the main means of resource allocation are not competitive markets, as often suggested by the GCV literature and mainstream economics, but are instead power relations that ultimately stem from the patriarchal culture of violence and domination.     

The New Division of Labor in the Globalized Economy: Women’s Challenges and Opportunities

The way in which the new international division of labor (NIDL) in the globalized economy affects gender inequalities has not been sufficiently explored yet. The body of literature on commodity chains that has attempted to assess the welfare effects of the NIDL, especially in less developed countries, has paid sparse attention to gender issues. Globalization has entailed the deverticalization of commodity supply chains and the emergence of highly concentrated financial groups and transnational companies linked to a network of firms operating as affiliates and suppliers, namely the global commodity chains. The NIDL could worsen gender inequality, due to the particular organizational strategies in global commodity chains that privilege power, instead of trust and market exchange, as the major form of governance and means for resource allocation. Because women represent the poorest swathe of the world’s population, they suffer the most from the growing wealth inequality and the concentration of power produced by the NIDL. Moreover, because of the traditional sexual division of labor and because of their low status in society, women are the most harshly exploited subjects in the system. The general conclusion of the paper is that in the NIDL the main means of resource allocation are not competitive markets, as often suggested by the GCV literature and mainstream economics, but are instead power relations that ultimately stem from the patriarchal culture of violence and domination.     

The Contractionary Short‐Run Effects of Nominal Devaluation in Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances

This article extends the model developed by Krugman and Taylor (1978 Krugman, P. and Taylor, L. 1978. Contractionary effects of devaluation. Journal of International Economics, : 445–56. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) to take into account interesting features of the evolving structure of global trade. The growing presence of transnational production chains and differential pricing behaviour of exports destined for industrial and developing countries are accommodated. Individual country and panel data pass‐through estimates derived from several econometric approaches are provided to justify the latter extension. The likelihood of contractionary short‐run effects of devaluations is shown to be positively related to: 1) the proportion of a country’s exports destined for other developing countries; and 2) the presence of transnational corporations (TNCs) in either the export or home goods‐producing sector. Unlike the Krugman‐Taylor case, devaluation will generally have a contractionary impact even if: 1) trade is initially balanced; 2) consumption behaviour does not differ between wage and profit earners; and 3) the government sector has a high marginal propensity to consume in the short run. The resulting policy implications underline the need to take into account these increasingly important nuances of international trade while designing exchange rate policies for developing countries.     

Domestic Energy Consumption and Country’s Income Growth: A Quantitative Analysis of Developing and Developed Countries Using Panel Causality,Panel VECM,Panel Cointegration and SURE

Journal of Quantitative Economics - The present study is an attempt to test the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for developed and developing counties. For this purpose,...     

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Global temperatures have increased at a historically unprecedented pace. This paper finds that the negative effect of temperature on output in countries with hot climates runs through reduced investment, depressed labor productivity, poorer human health, and lower agricultural and industrial output. We find that hot low-income countries suffer the largest costs. In a median low-income country, aggregate output is about 2 percent lower and investment is about 10 percent lower seven years after a 1 degree increase in average annual temperature. We also find that economic development, in general, helps to shield countries from temperature shocks, with hot regions in high-income countries on average sustaining less economic damage from rising temperatures than hot regions in low-income countries.     

The ‘Value’ of Europe: The Political Economy of Culture in the European Community

During the 1970s and 1980s the “cultural sector” became one of the primary motors for wealth creation in the European Community. At the European and national scales, a group of actors helped transform Europe's vast array of practices and services (tourism, heritage, books, audio-visual products, etc.) into “cultural industries” and pushed the EC to develop a common cultural policy to support these industries. Documenting these changes at the European scale, I argue that the perceived impact of cultural policy for particular national economic competitiveness was also significant. Italian MEPs and members of Italy's national government were especially important, as they fought to protect the country's historical heritage and promote tourism. France pushed the strongest and I show how that country's efforts were primarily intended to protect its audio-visual and publishing industries from the EC internal market's liberalisation policies, which were vocally supported by Britain because they would have served that county's national economic interests.