中国技术贸易与经济增长关系研究

第二次世界大战后,国际技术贸易开始形成规模并迅速扩大,已经成为推动各国乃至世界经济发展的助推器。本文从中国技术贸易与经济发展的现状出发,运用协整与误差修正模型对1985～2020年中国技术贸易与经济增长的长期均衡与短期调整关系进行了实证分析。研究认为,技术贸易收支比对GDP增速在短期和长期均有负向影响,但长期影响比短期影响大;技术贸易收支比对GDP增速之间具有短期反向调整机制,但调整力度较小。     

Are remittances good for economic growth? The role of political institutions

Within a sample of 109 developing countries for the period 1975–2014 and controlling for country and time-fixed effects, this article presents evidence that workers’ remittances are more effective in promoting growth in developing countries with strong democratic institutions. The evidence is robust to alternative samples and different measures of democratic institutions.     

Do remittances dampen the effect of natural disasters on output growth volatility in developing countries?

This article examines whether or not remittance inflows help mitigate the effects of natural disasters on the volatility of the real output per capita growth rate. Using a large sample of developing countries and mobilizing a dynamic panel data framework, it uncovers a diminishing macroeconomic destabilizing consequence of natural disasters as remittance inflows rise. It appears that the effect of natural disasters disappears for a remittance ratio above 8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, remittances aggravate the destabilizing effects of natural disasters when they exceed 17% of the GDP. Finally, the article shows that current and lagged remittance inflows significantly reduce the number of people killed by natural disasters and the number of people affected, respectively.     

Measuring economic freedom: an alternative functional specification and subsequent ranking

ABSTRACT

The widely cited Economic Freedom of the World index is an aggregate measure of economic freedom calculated by using a simple arithmetic mean of scores over five sub-dimensions: (1) size of government, (2) legal structure and security of property rights, (3) access to sound money, (4) freedom to trade internationally and (5) regulation of credit, labour and business. The use of a simple arithmetic mean implicitly assumes that the different sub-dimensions are ‘perfect substitutes’. To explore the implications of this assumption, we compute an aggregate economic freedom score and ordinal ranking of countries, by taking a geometric mean of the five sub-dimensions. For this alternative specification, the marginal impact of each sub-dimension on the aggregate score is no longer independent of the other sub-dimension scores. Consequently, countries with inconsistent levels of economic freedom across sub-dimensions are ‘punished’ to a greater degree than are countries with less variability across sub-dimensions. Our alternative specification results in considerable movement in terms of country rankings. The geometric mean measure does not appear to explain economic growth as well as the arithmetic mean measure.     

What drives trade in services? Lessons from the Nordics

This article makes an empirical assessment of the relative importance of non-actionable institutional and cultural factors and actionable policy measures for services market integration, using the Nordic countries as a case study. The Nordics are an ideal case as they are perceived to be a cluster of similar countries, but they have chosen different relations to the European Union (EU) and the rest of the world. First, comparing actionable and non-actionable determinants of services trade, I find that policy-determined free trade agreements (FTAs) boost services trade by 75% and a single market by an additional 45%, while the accumulated effect of all standard non-actionable shared geographical, institutional and cultural features (sharing a land border, language, colonial past and legal origin) almost triples services trade. Having controlled for all these determinants, intra-Nordic trade in services is more than three times the predicted value. An unexplained Nordic bias of this magnitude indicates that full integration of services markets may rely on deeper institutional and cultural factors.     

进口贸易结构对我国经济增长的影响——基于技术进步视角的实证分析

文章采用1980-2008年的相关数据,运用协整理论、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型等方法,基于技术进步视角实证分析了进口贸易结构对我国经济增长的影响.结果表明:初级产品、工业制成品的进口都能促进我国技术进步,工业制成品进口对技术进步的作用大于初级产品;然而,初级产品中的食品及主要供食用的活动物类、饮料及烟草类和工业制成品的轻纺产品、橡胶制品矿冶产品及其制品类的进口对技术进步具有阻碍作用.进口贸易结构与技术进步之间不存在双向因果关系,技术进步还未从总体上改善我国的进口贸易结构,进口贸易结构改善与技术进步之问的良循环并未形成.最后,提出进一步优化我国进口贸易结构的政策建议.     

Product Market Integration and Wages in Unionized Countries

This paper addresses the effects of product market integration on wages. We develop a two–country general equilibrium model of international trade with imperfectly competitive product markets and unionized labor markets. Integration is modelled as either a fall in fixed or variable trade costs. A reduction in fixed trade costs leads to an unambiguous decrease in wages, whereas a reduction in variable trade costs has an ambiguous effect on wages.
JEL classification : F 15; J 5; L 13     

Exploring Utopia (Limited) with a Companion

For economic development, the central importance of commerciallaw, private enterprise and public infrastructure are undeniable.Yet trying to transplant such in situations when they are foreigncan add political turmoil to economic stagnation. Drawing onThe Elgar Companion to Development Studies (2006), this dilemmais explored with implications for the appropriate definitionof ‘institutions’; the meaning of property rightsand the mechanisms of conflict resolution.     

对我国外贸发展规模与质量问题几点思考

改革开放二十多年来，我国对外贸易已具有了相当规模，对我国经济增长做出了巨大的贡献。但同发达国家相比还存在着很大的差距。召集世界经济陷入低迷状态，我国还要履行入世承诺。在这种“内外双紧”的环境下，我国对外贸易保持适度的发展规模，同时改善外贸质量显得尤为重要。     

外商直接投资、对外贸易与环境污染的实证研究

文章通过中国30个省(市、区)2000-2005年面板数据,对FDI与外贸的环境污染效应进行了实证分析.对外贸易与FDI整体上都促进了中国经济增长,其中,进口对经济增长的作用较小;出口与FDI加剧了中国环境污染;进口贸易可抑制环境污染,但作用比较小;人力资本具有显著的促进经济增长与抑制环境污染的双重功能.本文的政策建议是,调整出口与引资政策,发展教育,促进人力资本积累.     

Remittances channels and the physical growth of Honduran children

Ensuring the availability of food and other resources for young children is important for sustaining physical growth. We examine the role of remittances and its associated implications in determining heights and weights of 4459 children aged 0–5 years in Honduras in 2004. To address the endogeneity problem with household remittance receipt, we take advantage of the timing of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 to construct instrumental variables that are exogenously related to migration decisions made before children included in the later survey were conceived. We find that children are significantly taller and heavier for their age and gender in households receiving remittances. Further investigation of household spending indicates significant changes in food purchases and dietary diversity. Households receiving remittances are more likely to include fish, fruits, and meats in their diets. Additional findings also indicate that households receiving remittances spend absolutely more on food, health care, education, and durable goods. Overall, the findings provide strong evidence that remittances change household consumption and increase children’s body sizes.     

Does human capital constrain the impact of foreign direct investment and remittances on economic growth in Ghana?

This article empirically investigates whether human capital constrains the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and remittances on economic growth in Ghana. An economic growth model for Ghana is specified and estimated using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator and employing annual data spanning the period 1965 to 2008. Empirical results indicate that FDI and remittances are key determinants of economic growth in Ghana. Results indicate that human capital enhances the impact of FDI and remittances on economic growth. Although both government expenditure and trade openness are growth-enhancing, government expenditure appears to crowd-out private investment. Empirical results also indicate that domestic inflationary pressures, unstable political environment and volatile global economy exert a negative impact on economic growth in Ghana.     

Are OECD policy recommendations for public sector reform biased against welfare states? Evidence from a new database

Policy advice by the OECD has long been at the heart of academic debates on welfare state reform, with frequent claims questioning the ideological orientation of recommendations. This paper constructs an indicator of perceived reform need for 24 countries, quantifying the policy advice contained in the OECD Economic Surveys around 1985, 1995, and 2005. These recommendations describe a policy consensus that is based on competition, work incentives, monetary reform, fiscal discipline, and labor market reform. Empirically, perceived need for reform is well explained by preceding levels of economic freedom. In particular, countries with more government intervention, lower property rights protection, and more regulation are perceived to have a bigger reform need. In turn, perceived reform need has no explanatory power for subsequent changes in social expenditure and welfare state entitlements. Only in countries with right wing governments, perceived reform need might be followed by marginal reductions in welfare state entitlements, but definitely not in social expenditure.