我国外商直接投资地区分布影响因素研究——基于空间面板数据模型

外商直接投资(FDI)在我国空间分布的显著非均衡性引发了大量有关FDI区位选择的经验研究,但相关研究往往忽视了FDI的空间依赖性对其区域分布的影响.基于此,本文选取我国1990-2004年28个省区的数据资料,从地区固定效应和时间固定效应两方面对空间面板数据模型进行估计,考察FDI的空间相关性对我国FDI地区分布的影响.研究发现,空间面板数据模型对现实FDI地区分布的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国各省FDI的区位分布存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区吸引外资的增加能够带动本地区吸引更多的外商投资.     

Pricing to Market of German Exporters: Evidence from Panel Data

This paper investigates pricediscrimination of German exporters across differentforeign markets. We examine the degree of pass-throughof exchange rate fluctuations in the pricing of 70export items. The model is estimated using panel dataon export unit values. Parameter estimation relies onGMM first difference, fixed effects, LAD, OLS firstdifference, and the random coefficients model. Themain results for 70 manufactured goods and 15destination countries between 1990–1994 are: Thedegree of pricing to market differs among destinationsand products. Highest pricing to market is observedfor U.S., Japan, Italy and Spain. Pricing to market ismore prevalent in exports of chemicals and fertilisersthan in machinery products.     

Pollution Control and Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico: An Industry-Level Analysis

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into developing countries have been increasing dramatically over the past decade. At the same time, there has been widespread concern that lax environmental standards are in part responsible for this surge. This paper revisits the question of the existence of a pollution haven effect by examining the extent to which the pollution intensity of production helps explain FDI in Mexico. We focus on pollution intensities, which are directly related to emission regulations, rather than unobservable pollution taxes and allow for substitution between capital and pollution. Examining several different pollutants, we find a positive correlation between FDI and pollution that is statistically and economically significant in the case of the highly regulated sulfur dioxide emissions. Industries for which the estimated relationship between FDI and pollution is positive receive up to 30% of total FDI and 30% of manufacturing output. Although we confirm the importance of Mexico’s comparative advantage in labor-intensive production processes, consistent with the previous literature, our results suggest that environmental considerations may matter as well for firms’ investment decisions.      

基于动态面板数据模型分析FDI的环境效应

外商直接投资在对中国经济增长起到积极推动作用的同时,我们也不可忽视其可能会对我国环境造成的影响。文章通过构建环境污染综合指数,并且以东中西部为三个横截面建立动态面板数据模型来分析外商直接投资对各个地区环境的影响。结果显示,外商直接投资和东部中部地区的环境污染指数之间有正相关关系,和西部地区的环境污染指数之间是一个负相关关系。     

外商直接投资就业效应的省际分析

外商直接投资对东部、中部和西部地区的就业存在显著性的影响,但是三地区的影响是不同的,其中中部地区就业量对FDI最敏感,东部地区次之,西部地区最小。     

The welfare effects of FDI: A quantitative analysis

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can increase productivity and wages. However, it is also often accompanied by primary income deficits as foreign-owned firms repatriate their profits. The welfare effects of FDI are thus ambiguous. A particularly illustrative example of this phenomenon are the Visegrád 4 (V4) countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). This paper investigates whether FDI can be beneficial in the presence of profit repatriation using a general equilibrium model calibrated to the V4 economies. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the benefits of FDI outweigh the costs for these countries. On average, a 1% increase in the share of foreign firms is associated with a 0.17% increase in welfare. However, incentivising foreign firms to reinvest more of their profits domestically is, ceteris paribus, welfare-improving. A 10-percentage-point increase in the profit repatriation rate is associated with a 1.06% welfare gain on average.     

Foreign direct investment and its impact on real wages: evidence from Turkish micro-level data

This paper analyzes the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on wages, using Turkish firm-level data from 2003 to 2010, a period which coincides with significant FDI inflows both in manufacturing and service sector firms in the region. We explore the possibility of increased foreign presence translating into shifts in either labor demand or supply curves thereby resulting in changing the total wage bill or wage per worker in the host country. To empirically test this relationship we employ a dynamic specification of the wage equation. After addressing endogeneity concerns, the results reveal that foreign presence measured in terms of intra- and inter-sectoral linkages is related to higher wage bills in the host economy, hence strengthening the argument for attracting greater foreign investment to enhance labor welfare.     

Manufacturing FDI and economic growth: evidence from Asian economies

Previous empirical studies on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth generate mixed results. This article suggests that the ambiguous results might be caused by the use of total FDI. We study the heterogeneous effects of different sector-level FDI inflows on host country's economic growth. Data from 12 Asian economies over the period of 1987 to 1997 are employed. Strong evidence shows that FDI in manufacturing sector has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in the host economies. FDI inflows in nonmanufacturing sectors do not play a significant role in enhancing economic growth. Furthermore, without the decomposition of total FDI inflows, the effect of manufacturing FDI on host country's economic growth is understated by at least 48%.     

我国城市劳动力市场的就业效率

本文借助协整分析、面板数据模型等方法和工具,运用劳动部门公布的全国部分城市劳动力市场供求情况的数据和国家统计局公布的经济运行的相关数据,分析经济形势的变化对劳动力市场的影响,发现我国的经济增长与城市劳动力市场的求人倍率之间存在着较为稳定的均衡关系,发展第三产业是吸纳更多劳动力的有效途径,各行业投资吸纳就业的能力没有差别,因此,着重投资于居民服务和其他服务业等行业,可以有效引致更多劳动力需求。     

集聚经济、公共基础设施与劳动生产率——来自中国城市动态面板数据的证据

文章采用2001-2007年中国城市面板数据实证检验了集聚经济、公共基础设施与城市非农劳动生产率的关系。结果表明:在控制住其他影响因素后,一个地区的就业密度和公共基础设施对其非农劳动生产率都有着显著为正的影响,但在忽略城市公共基础设施的情况下,集聚经济的估计值明显偏高了。     

“母市场效应”:来自中国制造业对外贸易面板数据的证据

文章通过模型的建构证明了母市场效应的存在性。文章采用Bergstrand(1989)的引力模型,考察了中国制造业中出口额较大、出口国较多的HS码共28章产品。通过对各章产品面板数据的回归分析发现,除了陶瓷品外,其余27章产品均存在显著的母市场效应。其中钢铁、无机化学和车辆等产品呈现较强的母市场效应,而纺织品、精密仪器等产品则呈现较弱的母市场效应。28章产品中除了陶瓷外其余均为劳动密集型产品,而且绝大部分产品对伙伴国来说为奢侈品。距离、是否接壤和是否有共同语言等变量对中国制造业产品的出口影响并不太显著,对各章产品影响方向也不一致。自由贸易协定对中国制造业产品出口具有显著的促进作用。     

Impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Africa: Evidence from three decades of panel data analyses

This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Africa and presents estimations based on panel data of 50 African countries during the period from 1980 to 2009, and the system generalized method of moment (SYS-GMM) estimators as proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998). It finds that FDI inflows had a significant impact on economic growth in the African region during the period of interest. It also finds that while the low level of human resources did not limit the impact of FDI, and that the impact of FDI on economic growth was negative during the period from 1980 to 1994 and positive during the period from 1995 to 2009.     

外商投资对中国就业影响的实证分析

外商投资存在直接就业效应和间接就业效应,可以用外商投资流量和存量分别加以度量,运用中国1984～2005年的数据进行计量分析的结论表明：1993年以前外商投资的直接就业效应非常显著,负的间接就业效应也很显著;1993年以后年外商投资的直接就业效应减小。负的间接就业效应也减弱。     

我国对外直接投资理论研究综述

对外直接投资是我国企业发展到一定阶段的必然选择，而我国关于对外直接投资的理论研究无疑对于指导我国企业的FDI活动具有重要的意义。因此本文在研究国外对外直接投资理论的基础上，着重综述了我国学者的相关研究成果．以明确以后的方向。     

Externalities from foreign direct investment in the Mexican retailing sector

This contribution to the discussion on the impact of foreigndirect investment in developing countries is based on an empiricalstudy of the consequences of transnational corporations' presencein the Mexican retailing sector, particularly Wal-Mart. First,it is shown that the arrival of foreign firms accelerates themodernisation but has a negative impact on local firms' performanceas well as local worker remuneration as a result of the growingcompetitive pressure in the sector. Second, the changes thatoccurred in supply chain governance and the tremendous increaseof imports initiated by Wal-Mart are described, and some probableimplications for local suppliers are suggested.     

Do channels of financial integration matter for FDI’s impact on growth? Empirical evidence using a panel

This paper adds to the debate on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth which suggest that the link between FDI and economic growth is rather the consequence of both FDI and growth responding endogenously to economic integration. We investigate if the impact of FDI on growth is dependent on the channel of integration used to attract FDI. We use four different indexes of economic integration including Trade Openness, Chinn-Ito, and KOF and our newly constructed index of financial integration. We employ these four indexes to investigate the role played by economic integration in linking FDI and growth. We use a panel consisting of 134 developing countries and data spanning the period 1989-2017 estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. The results show that FDI is an important determinant of growth. The results also suggest that at least some of the integration variables do matter and work as channels to attract FDI leading to growth. However, after stratifying countries by income level, we also find that integration matters mainly for high income countries. Integration variables for other income groups do not show much significance. These are interesting results and may have important policy implications.     

Reform, Interaction of Policies, and Economic Growth: Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data

Based on provincial panel data, we tested the effects of openness, denationalization, fiscal reform, and their interactions on Chinese regional economic growth. We found the following: (1) Openness, especially the growth of foreign-direct-investment/gross-domestic-product ratio, has been important in enhancing China’s growth since the mid-1980s, while this effect is not so significant in western China. (2) Fiscal reform is another significant factor for economic growth. If local governments deregulate, higher growth will be obtained. In particular, reducing extrabudget expenditure helps push economic growth, especially in western China. (3) The interaction of economic policies, such as openness, denationalization, and fiscal reform, also plays an essential role in local economic growth. Both for the whole nation and for the eastern area, denationalization does not affect growth independently but expands the effects of deregulation. (4) After controlling economic policies and their interactions, conditional convergence exists. (5) With other factors controlled, eastern China achieved higher growth, while the middle and western areas did not differ significantly in growth. (6) Western China, where policy variables have lower explanatory power for growth, has a growth pattern different from those of the eastern and middle areas. Translated from the World Economic Papers, 2005, (1) (in Chinese)     

The causality between FDI and sector-specific production in Turkey: evidence from threshold cointegration with regime shifts

This article considers bidirectional nonlinear cointegration relation between FDI and industrial output in Turkey. The data cover the monthly period 2005:1–2013:10 for the time series of total industrial production, 36 sub-industrial sectors’ production and FDI. Following nonlinear threshold cointegration and VECMs, the article yields that (i) total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions have positive long-run impact on FDI with significant error corrections, (ii) six sub-industrial productions have short-term influence on FDI, (iii) FDI has long-run positive impulse on total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions with some significant error corrections and (iv) FDI affects four sub-industrial productions in the short run as well as in the long run. The results of VECMs from (i) also reveal that the all short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in 10 typical regimes (Regime-1s) and in 5 extreme regimes (Regime-2s). Finally, the outcome of VECMs from (iii) yields that short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in two typical regimes and in four extreme regimes. Eventually, considering FDI’s positive impact in the short and long run, this article suggests that policymakers promote specifically the FDI inflows to the sectors of intermediate goods, manufacture of beverages, manufacture of rubber and plastic and manufacture of other nonmetallic mineral products.     

外商直接投资、就业与经济增长的关系研究——以安徽省为例

鉴于外商直接投资（FDI）对一国经济的重要作用,积极引进FDI已成为发展中国家发展国内经济的一项重要政策。而关于FDI对就业和经济增长的影响,理论界仍存在争议。本文尝试对FDI、就业和经济增长的关系进行实证研究,运用Cobb—Douglas生产函数和Eviews5．0统计软件,以安徽省为例,利用安徽省1991—2006年外商直接投资（FDI）、就业与经济增长的相关数据,研究FDI对就业和经济增长的作用。研究结果显示：当年实际利用外商直接投资额（增量FDI）与就业呈负相关关系,而年底累积外商直接投资额（存量FDI）与就业呈正相关关系。由此可见,外商直接投资对就业的影响是长期的创造效应与短期的挤出效应并存。Granger因果关系检验结果显示,FDI所带来的就业与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。