Welfare‐reducing Domestic Cost Reduction*

We show that cost reduction by a domestic firm may reduce domestic welfare if it changes a foreign firm’s production strategy from foreign direct investment to export. Domestic cost reduction can be welfare reducing when the domestic market is sufficiently small and domestic firm’s marginal cost of production is higher than the foreign firm’s marginal cost of production under foreign direct investment, which is a usual feature of trade between developed and developing countries. So, developing countries with small domestic markets need competent competition policies when encouraging domestic innovation and also trying to attract foreign direct investment.     

Does foreign direct investment increase exports’ productivity? Evidence from developing and emerging countries

Raising the productivity content of exports is an important issue for developing and emerging countries. What role do foreign firms play in this process? This question has not been adequately studied. We contribute to the literature by generalizing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the host country’s export productivity level. Using panel data, we present new empirical evidence suggesting that FDI boosts the overall productivity level of the developing and emerging countries’ exports.     

Growth and export expansion in developing countries: Some empirical evidence

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between economic growth and export expansion in developing countries as observed through an intercountry cross-section. Employing data from 55 middle income developing countries for the period 1960–1977, bivariate tests revealed significant positive associations between growth and various other economic variables including the growth of manufacturing output, investment, total exports, and manufacturing exports. A production function model was also specified and estimated with the cross-sectional data. The results indicated that export performance was important, along with capital formation, in explaining the intercountry variance in GDP growth rates during the 1960–1977 period.     

Absorptive capacity and quality upgrading effect of OFDI: Evidence from China

Does outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from developing countries affect firms' competitiveness in international markets through quality upgrading of export? Using highly disaggregated Chinese product level data and the firm level information on overseas investment from 2000 to 2006, we attempt to provide an answer to this question. We employ the propensity score matching approach and difference-in-differences specification to deal with the sample selection bias and the potentially endogenous problem in inferring the causal effect of OFDI on quality upgrading. The results reveal that investment abroad could significantly push China export up on quality ladders. The firms with OFDI have higher quality products when compared with the firms remaining invest in their home country at product-export destination level. This quality upgrading effect is more pronounced where firms export to high-income countries. Furthermore, we show that the learning mechanism works and the absorptive ability of firms could reinforce the quality upgrading effect of OFDI. The learning mechanism also works for the firms with difference OFDI strategies.     

Export Product Diversification and Public Revenue’s Dependence on Resource Revenue

ABSTRACT

This article tries to reconcile two major priorities for countries, notably resource-rich countries on the international development agenda: export product diversification with a view to helping them better integrate into the multilateral trading system and tax reforms with a view to reducing the dependence of total public revenue on resource revenue, and therefore developing a more sustainable stream of public revenue. The analysis therefore involves examining empirically the impact of export product diversification on countries’ overall public revenue dependence on resource revenue, this dependence being measured by the share of resource revenue in total public revenue. The empirical analysis shows that export product diversification exerts a negative and significant impact on resource revenue share of total public revenue, and therefore could help facilitate tax reforms towards lower resource revenue dependence. Hence, while tax policy is the main policy tool to conduct tax reforms, export product diversification would likely contribute to facilitating the implementation of these reforms.     

Determinants and Implications of Cyclicality: Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures.     

Technological Constraints,Firm Heterogeneity,and Location Choice of Multinational Enterprises

This paper aims to examine the relationship between the location choices of multinational enterprises and their productivity considering the North–South differences in regard to technological constraints. We find that home firms with the highest level of productivity choose to undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) in the developed countries and they choose to export to, rather than do FDI in, developing countries. This result explains why not many high tech industries exist in developing countries. Using Japanese firm level data, we also confirm that Japanese high tech firms tend to undertake FDI in developed countries, but hesitate to invest in developing countries empirically.     

Aid,Terrorism, and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Insight Conditioned on Corruption Control

ABSTRACT

This paper checks the effect of foreign aid on terrorism–foreign direct investment (FDI) nexus, while considering the extent of domestic corruption control (CC). The empirical evidence is based on a sample of 78 developing countries. The following findings were established: the negative effect of terrorism on FDI is apparent only in countries with higher levels of CC; foreign aid dampens the negative effect of terrorism on FDI only in countries with high level of CC. Also, the result is mixed when foreign aid is subdivided into its bilateral and multilateral components. While our findings are in accordance with the stance that bilateral aid is effective in reducing the adverse effect of terrorism on FDI, we find that multilateral aid also decreases the adverse effect of other forms of terrorism that can neither be classified as domestic or transnational. Policy implications are discussed in the paper.     

World Bank Trade Adjustment Loans and Export Policy Distortions

Abstract

This work investigates whether World Bank loans fostering trade liberalization are associated with less distorted export policies, by employing some gravity model‐based measures of anti‐export bias, and a Herfindhal index of export revenues concentration. When accounting for non‐random selection in a sample of 88 developing countries over the period 1980‐2000, the receipt of trade adjustment loans seems to have reduced the policy distortion under scrutiny. Such a beneficial influence, however, vanishes when a longer time horizon is considered, casting doubts on the country ownership of waves of liberalizations supported by the Bank.     

Export surges

How can developing countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, we examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least 7 years. We find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation, which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. We examine why the exchange rate is important in developing countries and find that the depreciation is associated with a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation stimulates entry into new export products and new markets. These new exports are important, accounting for over 40% of export growth on average during the surge in developing countries. We argue that a large real depreciation induces firms to expand the product and market space for exports.     

异质性与跨国公司的战略选择

新新贸易理论将公司异质性引入到国际贸易理论中,从微观层面解释了公司国际化的战略选择。但它们通常假定两国是同质的,所以公司国际化的选择仅局限于出IZl贸易和水平型直接投资。本文构建了三国模型,考察了跨国公司的三种战略选择模式。理论研究表明,生产率最高的公司选择水平型直接投资,生产率较高的公司选择出口平台直接投资,生产率较低的公司选择出口贸易,生产率最低的公司只供应国内市场。发达国家的相对工人工资水平越高、发展中国家建厂成本越小,选择出口和水平型直接投资的公司会越少,而选择出口平台的直接投资公司会越多。     

技术进步、优势转换与中国FDI的发展

技术进步、全球化的深入发展改变了发展中国家FDI的相对技术优势,自动化控制技术的发展使小规模定制成为一种时尚,大大降低了规模经济的门槛,使发展中国家原有的小规模技术优势不断弱化,全球化导致的全球消费文化的趋同也大大削弱了发展中国家固有的技术地方化优势;但技术进步导致的产业链拉长,各国产业结构差异的扩大却进一步提升了发展中国家的边际产业比较优势和技术创新升级优势;技术与分工的复杂化,基于价值链和竞合原则的现代分工模式也使逆向技术整合,新产业的蛙跳成为可能,也使所有权优势,内部化优势和区位优势成为自足的对外直接投资条件,进一步增加了发展中国家对外直接投资的机会。只有充分认识到技术进步对发展中国家相对技术优势带来的影响,我们才能抓住技术进步带来的机遇,促进中国跨国企业FDI的更大发展。     

Foreign Direct Investment,Technological Spillovers and the Agricultural Transition in Central Europe

The article reports on spillovers from foreign direct investment to related industries in Central European transition countries. In particular, the impact of foreign investment in the sugarbeet-processing industry on the wider agro-food sector is investigated. The empirical findings indicate that foreign direct investment brings not only much needed capital to the region but also managerial and technological skills which are in similarly short supply. Technical support in the form of training programmes, pilot demonstration projects and innovative contract designs is found to help foreign affiliates secure sufficient high quality raw material supplies, while inducing sector-wide improvements in agricultural productivity and agri-business practices.     

China–US trade War: an Indonesian perspective

ABSTRACT

This paper takes a holistic approach to the effect of US-China trade war on Indonesia. The paper starts by laying out the context of the rise of protectionism and nationalism, comparing developed and developing country context, and its various causes such as unequal distribution of benefits and responses to the rise of China. The new US approach focusing on goods trade deficit, targeting mainly China but also other countries, including Indonesia and it should be seen as a tool to address the real concerns of the US regarding unfair trade, such as technology transfer, industrial subsidies and trade and investment distortions. It also reflects the US view of the inadequacy of the WTO. In terms of direct impact, the US-China trade war is creating uncertainities to global growth and in particular any decline in China’s growth is likely to hit Indonesia and other ASEAN countries given that China has become their number one trading partner. As for benefit from trade diversion and investment relocation to avoid the trade war, given the structure of its exports and lack of integration in the Global Value Chains, Indonesia is unlikely to benefit compared to several other Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam. However, any net benefit from this, will far outweigh the cost of the uncertainty in the rules based multilateral trading system (MTS) and the retreat of the US leadership to safeguard the MTS. The paper looks at how the current US unilateralism is framed in a carrot and stick approach, which does not benefit developing countries like Indonesia. To fill the leadership vacuum to maintain an open rules based order, other countries need to take the leadership position. This can be done by pursuing their own unilateral agenda of structural reforms, increasing regional economic integration and take collective leadership to conduct necessary reforms of the WTO especially on issues that are at the heart of the US-China trade war such as industrial subsidies, strengthening IPR, investment issues related to technology transfer, and competition policy and the level playing field.     

美国跨国公司服务中国市场-为什么偏爱出口贸易?

直接投资和出口贸易是跨国公司服务东道国市场的两大主要方式,然而就美国跨国公司而言,与其服务大多数东道国的方式不同,其服务中国市场时主要以出口贸易为主。为此,我们以异质性贸易理论为基础,分析了跨国公司方式选择的理论基础和美国跨国公司和中国作为东道国的比较优势,并借助多个国家的制造业行业数据进行实证检验,试图解释美国跨国公司服务中国市场的经济行为。研究表明,美国服务中国市场的方式主要以混合型直接投资为主,这是美国跨国公司更偏爱出口贸易的主要原因。此外,本文还发现,运输成本越大、生产率异质性越大和工厂水平固定成本越小,跨国公司就会更加偏爱直接投资而不是出口贸易。     

Why is U.S. direct investment in China so small?

While the United States is the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world, and China is the largest FDI recipient among developing countries, U.S. direct investment (USDI) in China has been surprisingly small. This article investigates the determinants of USDI through a relative-demand model with time-series data. Evidence presented in this article indicates that the small USDI cannot be fully appreciated without understanding differences between USDI and Hong Kong direct investment (HKDI), the latter being the dominant source of FDI in China. Empirical results suggest that the USDI in China was primarily motivated by market access and that the HKDI was export oriented. The small USDI thus is a result of U.S. investors' preference for market access and China's export-promotion FDI regime, along with the troubled Sino-U.S. relations and political instabilities in China.     

The Reverse Direct Investment: The Case of the Korean Consumer Electronics Industry

This paper discusses the nature of foreign direct investments by firms from developing countries in industrialized country markets, which is coined as “reverse direct investment.” On the basis of the experiences of the Korean consumer electronics firms operating in the U.S., this paper identifies the nature of the investment as “defensive” and “premature“ strategic moves of firms in their internationalization process. There investment are made not to exploit firms' monopolistic firm-specific advantages, but to protect their export markets at an earlier time than economic forces might have led them to do. However, in the process, firms try to convert their home country-specific advantage (e.g. low labor cost) into firm-specific ones as much as possible. [440]     

Institutional foundations of export diversification patterns in oil-producing countries

While it is well known that resource exporting countries have higher export concentration, it is lesser known that there is substantial variance in export concentration fortunes within resource-based countries. Using several estimation techniques and other sensitivity checks, this paper offers a new explanation for success and failure in export diversification patterns in oil countries, an explanation which has an institutional and political background. In measuring the number of years between the beginning of oil production and the attainment of political independence in oil developing countries, we found that the greater the number of years, the higher the degree of export diversification ceteris paribus. Our interpretation of this result is grounded in an analysis of political constraints to diversification in resource-based countries. Institutions, unfavorable to diversification, which arose from the pre-independence period, were blocked in their positive evolution by national political elites in the post-independence period. This result contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of institutions in resource-based countries.     

出口导向贸易政策与发展中国家间FDI竞争——基于寡占竞争模型的理论分析

文章建立了一个两国竞争模型,重点分析了进口关税与出口补贴等战略贸易政策对发展中国家吸引FDI竞争的影响。研究发现:(1)当两国都采取出口补贴的外资激励政策时,工资水平和进口关税对发展中国家间FDI竞争并没有直接影响;(2)对全要素生产率较高的国家来说,当两国的关税水平都较高时,出口补贴政策增加流向本国的FDI,而当两国关税水平大幅下降后,出口补贴政策反而不利于本国FDI竞争。文章的结论对当前我国战略引资和出口退税等政策的调整具有重大的指导意义。     

Trade taxes and international investment

Abstract .  This paper demonstrates that international investment disturbs the conventionally understood equivalence between import tariffs and export taxes. Fundamentally, remittances to foreigners introduce an additional pecuniary channel between countries so that two-good Lerner Symmetry generally will not hold. Moreover, because tariffs subsidize investors in the local import competing sector while export taxes can extract rent from foreign investors in the export sector, the pattern of international investment will influence government preferences over trade policy  instruments  as well as levels. Notably, trade tax symmetry is restored by introducing a third policy tool in the form of a direct a tax on international remittances.