Can Russia Resettle the Far East?

Russian scholars, politicians and media have been alarmed by the declining population of the Far East, seeing it as a step towards eventual takeover of the region by China. This article shows that the progressive depopulation of the Far East is a reality and will continue in the coming decades. In addition to natural decline, the Far Eastern population will shrink faster than that of Russia because of net outmigration. Economic stagnation will keep migration from the South of the region at its present low rates. Recovery will increase mobility and allow the present deferred migrants to leave for European Russia. In the unlikely event that the Far East outperforms the rest of the country economically, it will attract migrants. However, any inflow is likely to be small because of the shrinking populations in European Russia and other ex-Soviet republics, and the competition for migrants from other parts of the world.     

Trading Out of the Global Food Crisis? The World Trade Organization and the Geopolitics of Food Security

The geopolitics of the Global Food Crisis and international trade has received limited scholarly attention, a significant omission given the major roles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in structuring world food production and trade flows and as a principal inter-state governing mechanism of the global agro-food system. Analysing recent international policy actions framing the WTO as a ‘fix’ to the Global Food Crisis, this article points to the value of a critical geopolitics of agro-power sensitive to the spatial reconfiguration of production and power in the global agro-food system, problematising geospatial categories such as ‘North’ and ‘South’, and that takes seriously contests for control of geopolitical agents such as the WTO.     

More is Less? Regulation in a Rent Seeking World

Competition between two interest groups that engage in strategic lobbying to influence regulatory decisions is examined. It is shown that increases in gross surplus can be detrimental to all parties. The circumstances under which this might occur, along with several applications, including the decision to deregulate, are considered. It is also shown that a simultaneous increase in both groups marginal lobbying costs benefits the low cost group and harms the high cost group.     

Do real interest rates converge across East Asian countries based on China?

This study applies the sequential panel selection method (SPSM), proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009), to assess the non-stationary properties of the real interest rates relative to China for ten East Asian countries. SPSM can classify the whole panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series. We clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes and provide robust evidence to indicate that RIRP holds true for five countries. It implies that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal policies in the East Asian economies will be highly influenced by external factors originating from China. Also, our findings point out that real interest rate convergence relative to China is mean reverting toward RIRP equilibrium values in a non-linear way.     

What is the long run growth rate of the East Asian Tigers?

New panel data estimates for the four East Asian Tigers show that the contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to growth is much higher than past estimates. An extended production function with learning by doing implies that TFP is about 3.5% and these countries will grow at this rate in the long-run.     

How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?

China's global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007. Many argue that a renminbi appreciation would help to rebalance China's trade. Using a panel dataset including China's exports to 33 countries we find that a 10% renminbi (RMB) appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12% and processed exports by less than 4%. A 10% appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce processed exports by 6%. A 10% appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10%. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are sophisticated, capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure-switching towards US and European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or of other Asian currencies alone.     

Can Bitcoin become money? The monetary rule problem

The growing literature on Bitcoin can be divided into two groups. One performs an economic analysis of Bitcoin focusing on its monetary characteristics. The other one takes a financial look at the price of Bitcoin. Interestingly, both of these groups have not given much more than passing comments to the problem of whether or not Bitcoin has the right monetary rule in order to become a well‐established currency. This paper argues that Bitcoin in particular, and cryptocurrencies in general, do not have a good monetary rule and that this shortcoming seriously limits its prospect of becoming widely used money.     

Should Smaller Countries Be More Protectionist? The Diversification Motive for Tariffs

This paper examines the diversification motive for tariffs under trade‐related uncertainty when there is incomplete international and domestic risk sharing. In the context of a two‐country Ricardian continuum‐of‐sectors model with shocks to foreign technologies or preferences, tariffs allow a country to mitigate external risk by diversifying across sectors. Given sufficiently high risk and risk aversion, the optimality of tariffs depends primarily on a country's ability to diversify, rather than its market power, such that small countries gain most.     

Where does return and volatility come from? The case of Asian ETFs

We analyze return and volatility of Asian iShares traded in the U.S. The difference in trading schedules between the U.S. and Asia offers a unique market setting that allows us to distinguish various return and volatility sources. We find Asian ETFs have higher overnight volatility than daytime volatility, explained by public information released during each local market's trading session. Local Asian markets also play an important role in determining each Asian ETF return. Nonetheless, returns for these funds are highly correlated with U.S. markets, indicative of the effects of investor sentiment and location of trade. Finally, returns in the U.S. market Granger-cause returns in all six Asian markets are analyzed.     

The politics of growth: Can lobbying raise growth and welfare?

We consider a setup where lobbyist firms undertake contributions to an office-motivated policy maker in exchange for profit increasing regulations, in a general equilibrium model of R&D-driven growth. We find that, despite increasing concentration—which leads to higher prices and less varieties—lobbying may stimulate growth and increase welfare by means of an expansion in aggregate demand if its real costs are small. This conclusion is supported by a simple calibration exercise.     

Can judicial efficiency improve territorial attractiveness to FDI? The Italian experience

This paper explores the role that judicial efficiency may play as a determinant of inward FDI at sub-national level. Italy is an ideal case to deal with this still unexplored issue since the same law apply in all the national territory, but the degree of law enforcement varies considerably across different courts. We found that judicial efficiency affects positively FDI inflows. This result, though heterogeneous across different economic sectors, is robust to different specifications and sample selections. Our results have interesting policy implications, since they highlight the importance of non-targeted FDI policies as factors driving inward flows.     

Can distortions in agriculture support structural transformation? The case of Uzbekistan

The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in the development process of a country. However, the tools used to trigger economic development are objects of controversy in theory and practice. While neoclassical theory contends that state interventions and protectionism create inefficiencies and sub-optimal allocation of resources, heterodox authors argue that those measures can be instrumental in fostering growth. Uzbekistan has applied heterodox distortive measures in agriculture. This paper investigates the implications of those distortions for the Uzbek economy. I argue that state interventions in agriculture, through surplus extraction and economies of scale, have facilitated investments in added-value industries, driving national structural transformation.     

Can taxes raise output and reduce inequality? The case of lobbying

One of the key institutional elements for reducing inequality is the tax and transfer system. However, economists and policymakers usually view high taxes as detrimental to economic growth. We isolate one important mechanism by which higher taxes reduce inequality and raise per capita gross domestic product (GDP) at the same time. This mechanism operates in the presence of unproductive lobbying. Higher taxes induce a reallocation from lobbying toward production. This raises overall output and reduces the consumption gap between those who benefit from lobbying and those who bear its negative effects.     

Does vertical separation reduce cost? An empirical analysis of the rail industry in European and East Asian OECD Countries

The main purpose of this study is to analyze structural separation policies, especially vertical (i.e. operation-infrastructure) and horizontal (i.e. passenger-freight service) separation. Using the total cost function of a railway organization, we evaluate whether or not vertical separation and/or horizontal separation can reduce costs. For this analysis, we selected 30 railway organizations in 23 European and East Asian OECD countries over 14?years, from 1994 to 2007. Our findings show that horizontal separation reduces railway cost. As for vertical separation, effects change according to the train density of a railway organization. With lower train density, vertical separation tends to reduce cost, while with higher train density vertical separation increases cost.