Finding "Lost" Profits: An Equilibrium Analysis of Patent Infringement Damages

We examine the impact of patent infringement damages in an equilibriumoligopoly model of process innovation where the choice to infringeis endogenous and affects market choices. Under the lost profitsmeasure of damages normally employed by U.S. courts, we findthat infringement always occurs in equilibrium with the infringingfirm making market choices that manipulate the resulting marketprofit of the patent holder. In equilibrium, infringement takesone of two forms: a "passive" form in which lost profits ofthe patent holder are zero and an "aggressive" form where theyare strictly positive. Even though the patentee's profits areprotected with the lost profits damage measure, innovation incentivesare reduced relative to a regime where infringement is deterred.     

Credit rationing and the adjustment of the loan rate: An empirical investigation

In this paper, models of credit rationing are analyzed using quarterly data on domestic bank loans of four countries. First, models of temporary (dynamic) credit rationing are considered. The price (interest rate) equation proposed by Bowden is estimated assuming equal and unequal adjustment speeds under excess demand and supply conditions. Second, the stability of the interest-rate equation is tested. We motivate this test by the fact that permanent (supply-side equilibrium) credit rationing implies instability of this regression relationship. Statistically significant credit-rationing effects are found for the countries considered, with the exception of the U.S.     

Prediction of volatility based on realized-GARCH-kernel-type models: Evidence from China and the U.S.

We propose three Realized-GARCH-Kernel-type models which do not make the distribution assumptions on the return disturbance terms. We use this type of model to predict the return volatilities of the 50ETF in China and the S&P500 index in the U.S. The semiparametric kernel density estimator of our models, which captures the skewness, asymmetry and fat-tail of financial assets, performs well both statistically and economically. Our models have more predictive power than other eight comparable volatility models that need to pre-specify the distribution of the disturbance terms. Our results are robust to eight measures of realized volatility. Using option straddle strategies, we show that our models generate larger trading profits and greater Sharpe ratios than the other competing models.     

中美贸易的反比较优势之谜

通过统计分析,本文发现中美贸易间存在"反比较优势之谜"。即美国在其具有技术上比较优势的行业,对中国出口相对较少,且在其比较优势越大的行业,对中国出口量相比世界其他地区越少;相比之下,中国对美国的出口则符合比较优势原理。为进一步检验该现象,本文将Eaton-Kortum模型扩展到多部门,并将其应用于中美贸易结构影响因素的经验分析。结果显示:在控制了行业生产规模和贸易成本等因素后,比较优势在中美双边贸易中的不对称作用依然存在,且结果稳健。     

The deep roots of economic development in the U.S. states: an application of Putterman and Weil (2010)

The “Deep Roots” literature investigates the effects of ancient cultural variables on economic outcomes. We extend Putterman and Weil’s (Q J Econ 125(4):1627–1682, 2010) inquiry into the effects of State History and Agricultural History to the economic output in ethnically and racially diverse fifty U.S. States. The ethnic and racial differences across the populations of the fifty U.S. states vary considerably due to historical immigration and slave flows that, as a result, produced radically different State History and Agricultural History scores across the states. Results derived from Putterman and Weil’s methodology do not robustly predict per capita levels of economic output across U.S. States. We also investigate the institutions channel, and find that they impact some measures of institutions, but they do not impact the quality of economic institutions which may be essential for promoting economic growth and development.     

The Costs of U.S. Hegemony: Military power,military spending,and U.S. trade performance

For David Gordon and his collaborators in the social structures of accumulation (SSA) tradition, the willingness to threaten potential adversaries with military forces capable of acting on a global scale was seen to positively affect the U.S. terms of trade. U.S. hegemony yielded specific supply side benefits as favorable terms of trade reduced relative input prices and boosted profitability. Although Gordon and his co-authors recognize the potential costs of sustaining a large, globally active military apparatus, these costs are not incorporated in the econometric models supporting the SSA theory. This paper attempts to extend the SSA analysis by empirically measuring the effects of both military spending and military power on U.S. trade performance over the 1951–1987 period. It is shown that while military power and spending commitments may have positive effects on the terms of trade, these military variables had direct and indirect negative impacts on the U.S. net export balance and therefore domestic aggregate demand. In the context of a model of U.S. growth performance open to international transactions, the overall effect of the postwar military system on U.S. economic growth was likely negative in the cold-war era     

Overnight Covered Interest Parity:Theory and Practice

This study shows, both theoretically and empirically, that in a world where capital as well as exchange markets are imperfect it is incorrect to employ mid-market rates to estimate CIP relationships. Developing and using the correct specification, we estimated covered interest parity relationships between the overnight U.S. Euro-dollar and Canadian interbank markets, for the 1986-1992 period. It was found that covered interest parity holds for both directions. However, the speed and pattern of adjustments with which potential arbitrage profits are eliminated are not symmetric between U.S. Euro-dollar and Canadian interbank markets. [GI51     

The Sensitivity of U.S. Inpayments and Outpayments to Real Exchange Rate Changes: Asymmetric Evidence From Africa

ABSTRACT

A strand of the literature concentrates on assessing the impact of exchange rate changes on a country’s inpayments from and outpayments to its trading partners. Most studies have considered the U.S. experience with partners from OECD but not for those from Africa. We fill this gap by including 14 African partners in our study. We assess not only the symmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the U.S. inpayments from and outpayments to each African partner, but also the asymmetric effects which requires incorporating nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate. While we found asymmetric effects in the trade with almost all partners in the short run, in a limited number of cases the short-run effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects. All in all, our findings are partner specific, but they provide more support for using nonlinear models.     

U.S. EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT: IS IT DISORDERLY? IS IT UNIQUE? WILL IT DISRUPT THE REST OF THE WORLD?

This article focuses on the historical experience with U.S. external adjustment, that is, narrowings of the trade deficit. Using data from the past 35 years, we compare economic performance in episodes during which the U.S. trade balance declined against episodes during which it rose. We find that trade balance adjustment has been generally benign: U.S. real gross domestic product growth tended to fall but not to a statistically significant extent; housing construction slumped; inflation generally rose modestly; and although nominal interest rates tended to rise, real interest rates fell. The article then compares these outcomes to those in foreign industrial economies. We find that the economic performance of the United States during periods of external adjustment is remarkably similar to the foreign experience. Finally, we also examine the performance of the foreign industrial economies during the periods when the U.S. trade deficit widened and narrowed. Contrary to concerns that U.S. adjustment will prove injurious to foreign economies, our analysis suggests that the foreign economies fared reasonably well during past periods when the U.S. trade deficit narrowed. ( JEL F32, F41)     

Taxes and entrepreneurial risk-taking: Theory and evidence for the U.S.

How does the tax law affect individual incentives to engage in entrepreneurial risk taking? We first show theoretically that taxes can affect incentives due to differences in tax rates on business vs. wage income, due to differences in the marginal tax rates faced on losses vs. profits through a progressive rate structure and through the option to incorporate, and due to risk sharing with the government. We then provide empirical evidence using U.S. individual tax return data that each of these aspects of the tax law have clear effects on individual behavior, and together have had large effects on the amount of entrepreneurial risk taking.     

Stability and bifurcations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">IS-LM</Emphasis> economic models

In this note, we analyze the local dynamics of a general non-linear fixedprice disequilibrium IS-LM model. We assume investment behavior as a general nonlinear function avoiding any Kaldor type assumption. By proving the existence of a family of periodic solutions bifurcating from a steady state, we confirm and extend some results in the literature for IS-LM models reducible to Leinard’s equation. We use bifurcation theory and study the effect of a change of the adjustment parameter in the money market upon the solutions of the model as the steady state loses stability. We establish analytically that the values of the adjustment parameter in the money market may affect the equilibrium relative to the product market and the government budget constraint. (JEL: C62, E32)     

Do state borders matter for U.S. intranational trade? The role of history and internal migration

Abstract.  Empirical evidence of the impact of borders on international trade flows using the gravity equation approach abounds. This paper examines the empirical relevance of state borders in U.S. interstate trade for various specifications of the gravity equation. We find a large and economically significant subnational border effect for some specifications. However, two model specifications drastically reduce (if not eliminate) the border effect: (i) dynamic panel specifications controlling for past levels of trade and (ii) models conditioning on internal migration.     

Commercialization of a demand-enhancing innovation: The release of a new apple variety by a public university

The upsurge of patented fruit varieties developed by university plant-breeding programs motivated this re-examination of optimal commercialization strategies when an innovator cares about profits for both itself and the licensees. Our theoretical findings suggest that the optimal licensing arrangement that maximizes weighted joint profits depends on the innovation level size, number of firms, and the weights assigned to the innovator and licensee profits. We designed an experiment to test the case with a small number of firms and found that the joint profits are the greatest under an exclusive per-unit royalty scheme. However, when the number of firms is large, as may be the case for a varietal introduction into the U.S. apple industry, our model suggests that the joint profits will be the largest under a nonexclusive contract, either with a two-part tariff, if the innovation level is high, or a per-unit royalty if the innovation level is low.     

WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING TO AGGREGATE CONCENTRATION IN THE U.S. ECONOMY IN THE TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY?

This paper extends earlier data series on aggregate concentration in the U.S. economy—the percentage of aggregate economic activity that could be attributed to the largest “X” companies—into the first two decades of the twenty‐first century. We find that there has been a moderate but continued increase in aggregate concentration since the mid‐1990s. This increase appears in data on employment and payrolls that have been compiled by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as employment and profits data that are drawn from the annual “Fortune 500” lists. This increase does not, however, appear to have raised aggregate concentration above the levels of the early 1980s. (JEL L10, L11, L19)     

Offsetting Versus Mitigation Activities to Reduce $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis for the U.S. and Germany

This paper studies the voluntary provision of public goods that is partially driven by a desire to offset for individual polluting activities. We first extend existing theory and show that offsets allow a reduction in effective environmental pollution levels while not necessarily extending the consumption of a polluting good. We further discuss the impact of an increased environmental preference on purchases of offsets and mitigation activities. Several theoretical results are then econometrically tested using a novel dataset on activities to reduce \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions for the case of vehicle purchases in the U.S. and Germany. We show that environmental preference triggers the stated use of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) offsetting and mitigation channels in both countries. However, we find strong country differences for the stated purchase of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) offsets. While such activities are mainly triggered by a high general awareness of the climate change problem in the U.S., the perception that road travel is responsible for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions to a large extent is more important for driver’s license holders in Germany.     

全球经济失衡的调整趋势 ——基于美国中心的视角

本文对以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式进行了趋势性分析。尽管外部失衡呈现出周期性的调整，但这些调整过程也是围绕着美国的经济和利益中心而展开的。对于美国而言，它并不需要刻意对其逆差大小进行调整，而主要通过金融渠道的资本流动收益为其贸易逆差提供融资；其外部失衡的调整是贸易失衡对象的转换，而不是贸易余额的逆转。对于顺差方，外部失衡的调整意味着贸易条件的恶化和经济结构的调整，出口贸易地位将逐步被弱化和替代。以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式将继续存在，除非美元崩溃和美国经济霸主地位丧失。     

The administered Bank rate and the Canada-U.S. spot exchange rate: 1975–1979

This paper analyzes, for the period 1975–1979, the announcement effect of the unanticipated Canadian administered Bank rate changes (the Bank rate is analogous to the discount rate in the U.S.) on the Canada-U.S. dollar spot exchange rate. Leading and/or lagged announcement effects are also investigated. By examining the behaviour of the residuals, on and surrounding the announced Bank rate changes, derived from an autoregressive equation of the daily changes (4:30 p.m. to noon the following day) in the logarithm of the spot $ Canadian/$ U.S. rate the evidence seems to indicate, on the average, a significant adjustment (appreciation of the Canadian dollar for Bank rate increases and depreciation for Bank rate decreases) of the exchange rate on the day of the effective unanticipated administered Bank rate changes regardless of the assumptions made with respect to the probability distribution of the residuals — whether it be normal, symmetric stable with a characteristic exponent of 1.8, or nonparametric.     

The Intertemporal Equilibrium Modeling of Intra-EMU and Global Trade Imbalances

The intertemporal equilibrium approach to current accounts analyzed the impacts of respective intra-European Monetary Union (intra-EMU) and Asian-U.S. financial integration between 1999 and 2007 on the intra-EMU current account and global trade imbalances. Moreover, Farmer and Ban (2014) find in a three-country, two-region overlapping generations model that financial integration between both the EMU core and periphery and between Asia and the U.S. induce trade surpluses in the EMU core and Asia, while in the EMU periphery and in the U.S., trade balances become negative when the global economy is dynamically inefficient. In this paper, we first show that in a numerically specified Farmer-Ban model, steady-state trade balance to gross domestic product ratios are too low compared to the empirically observed counterparts. We suggest avenues to ameliorate this problem.     

Partisan Cycles in Offshore Outsourcing: Evidence from U.S. Imports

The wage and employment effects of offshoring roil politics in the United States and around the world. Firms that offshore either outsource their activities to unaffiliated businesses, or internalize production by establishing subsidiaries from which they import intrafirm. We argue that the political environment in trade partner countries influences U.S. offshoring patterns in ways that have been ignored in the extant literature. Drawing on the political business cycle literature, we expect higher production costs and lower profits for firms in capital (labor) intensive sectors when the Left (Right) is in power. These partisan cycles, in turn, shape the sectoral composition of exports from the partner to the United States, and the degree to which trade is conducted intrafirm. Under a Left‐ (Right‐) leaning government in a partner country, U.S. intrafirm imports of capital‐ (labor‐) goods increase relative to total imports in these industries. Examining highly disaggregated U.S. import data, we find strong support for our argument. Our results indicate that the effect of partisan governments on offshore outsourcing depends on factor intensities of production, which vary across industries. The degree of internalization in global sourcing is shaped in part by the distributional objectives of partisan governments, and not by economic factors alone.     

The reaction of spot and forward rates to new information

This paper examines the impact of new information on the term structure of exchange rates. In particular, the response of spot and forward exchange rates to anticipated and unanticipated weekly U.S. and Canadian money growth announcements, and the speed of adjustment of the foreign exchange market to these announcements are investigated. The results indicate that the unanticipated component of the announced changes in the U.S. money supply has an immediate negative effect on the foreign value of the U.S. dollar. This is entirely consistent with the assetmarket theory of exchange rate determination that postulates that exchange rates immediately adjust to reflect ‘new information’. The response of the forward market, however, appears to be weaker, lending support to the overshooting hypothesis.