Inflation‐Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

There is growing evidence from multi‐country studies indicating that there is a turning point in the relationship between inflation and economic growth beyond which the detrimental effects of high inflation offset the stimulating effects of mild inflation on growth. However, it is not clear whether it is appropriate to assume an identical turning point in the inflation and growth relation across countries at various stages of development. Using a non‐linear specification and the data from four groups of countries at various stages of development, this paper examines the possibility for a family rather than a single inverted U relation across countries at various stages of development. The estimated turning points are found to vary widely from as high as 15% per year for the lower‐middle‐income countries to 11% for the low‐income countries, and 5% for the upper‐middle‐income countries. No statistically detectable, long‐run relationship between inflation and growth is evident for the OECD countries. The results indicate the potential bias in the estimation of inflation–growth nexus that may result from combining various countries at different levels of development. The existence of such a degree of heterogeneity across countries at various stages of development also suggests the inappropriateness of setting a single, uniform numerical policy target applicable to all (developing) countries.     

发展中国家和地区汇率制度变革及其对中国的启示

本文介绍和分析了一些发展中国家和地区的汇率制度变革的经验和教训以及对中国人民币汇率制度改革可供参考的思路，这些启示将是重要和有价值的。     

Improving the Performance of Contingent Valuation Studies in Developing Countries

This paper discusses three main reasons why so many of the contingentvaluation studies conducted in developing countries are so bad. First,the contingent valuation surveys themselves are often poorly administeredand executed. Second, contingent valuation scenarios are often very poorlycrafted. Third, few CV studies conducted in developing countries aredesigned to test whether some of the key assumptions that the researchermade were the right ones, and whether the results are robust with respectto simple variations in research design and survey method. The paper concludesthat research on stated preference methods in developing countries iscritically important to the successful implementation of these methodsbecause (1) there is no empirical evidence to suggest that rapid,”streamlined” CV surveys yield reliable, accurate results, and (2)there is a significant risk that the current push for cheaper, simplerCV studies could discredit the methodology itself. Moreover, the policydebates to which CV researchers are asked to contribute are often oftremendous importance to the well-being of households in developingcountries. Because the costs of policy mistakes can prove tragic, itis critical that VC researchers push for excellence in this researchenterprise and that funding agencies think more carefully about thevalue of policy-relevant information in the fields in which thecontingent valuation method is being used to study household preferencesand behavior (e.g., water and sanitation services, urban air pollution,soil erosion, deforestation, biodiversity, watershed management,ecosystem valuation, vaccines for the poor).     

发达国家产业共性技术供给模式及其启示

产业共性技术对于各国产业的快速发展,巩固和提升产业竞争优势具有重大的意义,因此,主要发达国家都十分重视政府对于本国产业共性技术发展的支持。美国共性技术的供给采取"企业+政府"的双主体投资机制;欧盟则通过欧洲框架计划、尤里卡计划等较松散的组织来联合欧洲各国的科研力量,为各成员国提供产业关键共性技术;日本和韩国政府对于本国产业共性技术的支持主要是通过国立研究机构(如,日本产业技术综合研究所,韩国科学技术研究院)来实现的。目前,与发达国家相比,我国产业共性技术的供给存在明显不足,因此,应借鉴发达国家的经验,尽快成立综合性的或行业性的工业技术研究院,专门研究行业发展中重大的、关键性的共性技术,为应对日益激烈的国际竞争提供技术支持。     

International Integration and Growth: A Further Investigation on Developing Countries

The paper examines empirically the linkages between international integration and economic growth in a panel of 47 developing countries and 18 trade blocs over the period 1970–1989. Specifically, it attempts to identify through which channel(s) – notably, specialization according to comparative advantage and increased efficiency, exploitation of increasing returns from larger market, and technology spillovers through investment and trade–trade blocs can affect the economic growth of their member countries. The results suggest that (1) intra-bloc trade does not affect growth significantly; (2) income diversion among member countries contributes positively and significantly to growth; and (3) the size of the trade bloc does matter in the sense that the bigger is not always the better for the welfare of the member countries.     

规模、路径与动因:发展中国家企业的FDI行为探析

发展中国家的企业不仅关心如何通过FDI将利润最大化,也关心提高一般性经营资源的收益。本文应用二阶段理论,综合考虑两个市场、两个阶段和两种状态等因素,对优势企业和弱势企业的决策背景进行了比较,分析了制度学习效应、资源转移效应和国内市场竞争效应等发展中国家企业FDI动因,建立了弱势企业FDI规模的决策模型,该模型也可以用于发展中国家企业FDI行为的路径选择。     

Privatizing Monopolies in Developing Countries: The Real Effects of Exclusivity Periods in Telecommunications

Many developing countries have given newly privatized incumbent network utilities, especially telecommunications, exclusive rights to serve particular markets. Research to date has explored privatization, competition, and to a lesser extent, regulation. We know little, however, about the effects of the privatization transactions themselves and, in particular, how these exclusivity periods matter. I use original data to investigate this approach to privatization. I find that exclusivity periods are associated with significant increases in the firms sale price. Exclusivity periods are also, however, correlated with a significant decrease in the incumbents investment in the telecommunications network, payphones, mobile telephone penetration, and international calling.JEL Classification: L1, L5, L96, O12I am grateful for the thoughtful comments and suggestions of Luke Haggarty, Tom Hazlett, Phil Keefer, Roger Noll, Russ Pittman, Greg Rosston, David Sappington, Mary Shirley, Lixin Colin Xu, and two anonymous referees. I thank Troy Kravitz for research assistance. I am solely responsible for all mistakes.     

税收与收入分配:基于发展中国家个人所得税的思考

对于税收分配作用的不同理解和看法导致了税制设计方案的差异。发达国家普遍采用的累进综合个人所得税在发展中国家里面临着更高的管理成本、遵从成本、经济效率成本和政治成本,因而可能不是发展中国家实现收入分配职能的最优策略。对于中国而言,未来个人所得税的改革方向应当是在合理确定劳动所得和资本所得税负水平的基础上,根据纳税人家庭人口数量及就业状况对费用减除标准加以细分。在商品税方面,对日常生活必需品和农业生产资料免征增值税,将更多奢侈品纳入消费税的征收范围,并对与低收入群体日常生活密切相关的服务项目免征营业税。     

Nominal Wage Flexibility and Economic Performance: Evidence and Implications Across Industrial Countries

By considering the theoretical connection between labour and product markets, the paper evaluates the economic relationship of these markets within the contractual wage rigidity New Keynesian explanation of business cycles. The empirical analysis focuses on the short‐run cyclical behaviour of real output, prices and wages for 19 industrial countries. Time‐series and cross‐sectional regressions are estimated. Cross‐sectional cyclical correlations in the labour and goods markets are also evaluated across countries. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, aggregate uncertainty is an important factor in increasing the flexibility of the nominal wage in response to aggregate demand shocks. Wage flexibility accelerates price inflation and moderates the response of real output growth to aggregate demand shocks. Wage flexibility does not appear to be an important factor in differentiating the real and inflationary effects of energy price shocks across countries. Finally, aggregate uncertainty increases the responsiveness of output and price to productivity shocks.     

经济全球化对发展中国家经济发展的影响与对策

随着经济全球化的发展,经济全球化自身存在的诸多不足与局限也日益显现.这些不足和局限对发展中国家的经济发展也带来了多方面的消极影响.对此,发展中国家需要在国内和国际两个层面建立起有效的发展机制,才能实现自己的经济发展目标.     

Public Investment and Economic Performance in Highly Indebted Poor Countries: An Empirical Assessment

Understanding how public investment affects economic performance in highly indebted low‐income countries is crucial in order to implement effective fiscal policies for adjustment with growth. In this paper we provide an empirical analysis to investigate the relationship between public investment, private investment and output. A dynamic econometric procedure is implemented on a selected group of Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs). Our results provide empirical support for the crowding‐in hypothesis and a positive relation between public investment and output.     

Income Inequality and Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Developing Countries*

We study the effect of within‐country income inequality on the diffusion of mobile phones using data on market penetration in a sample of developing countries from 1985 to 1998. Mobile phones are an example of international technology, originating in industrialized countries and diffusing worldwide. We find that income inequality, as measured by the income share of the highest earning deciles, has a positive effect on the early diffusion of mobile phones and that the estimated effect becomes greater when a measure of agricultural endowments is used as an instrument. The instrumental variable results are robust to weak instruments. Our findings suggest that the diffusion of new technologies originating from industrialized countries may generate yet another channel that links inequality and development.     

现行国际货币体系的不公正性与发展中国家的策略

现行国际货币体系的基本特征是储备货币多元化和以浮动汇率制为主流的汇率制度选择自由化，发展中国家似乎摆脱了原有的布雷顿森林体系和纪律和约束。但实际上，在现行国际货币体系下，发展中国家在储备货币依赖、江率制度选择、国际收支调节和抑制国际投资本冲击等方面均受到不利的影响（甚至是伤害）。本文首先论述了现行国际货币体系对发展中国家不公正性的表现，然后深入分析了其根源，最后提出了发展中国家应采取的若干策略。     

中国对发展中国家出口的地区结构与影响因素分析

中国与发展中国家的贸易联系越来越密切.在当前金融危机下,促进中国对发展中国家的出口具有重要的意义.通过对中国与164个发展中国家贸易关系的考察,揭示了中国对不同地区和不同发展程度发展中国家出口的地区结构和贸易潜力以及决定因素.从政策上分析,中国可以利用区域性的优惠贸易安排和"走出去"战略,进一步促进与发展中国家特别是非洲和美洲中低收入国家的贸易联系.     

主要发达国家科技人才开发政策综述

发达国家一直是科技人才聚集地,凭借其优秀的科研环境和教育制度成为世界科技人才向往之地。在人才战争愈打愈烈的背景下,美国、日本、德国、法国、英国等发达国家不仅出台措施加大了对科技人才的吸引,并且更加注重通过科学奖励、产学研合作、国际交流等方式,加强本国科技人才的培养与开发,其科教人才开发政策出现侧重对青年人才、独创性人才、面向产业需求的人才及国际化人才的培养趋势。通过研究世界主要发达国家科技人才开发的政策与措施,揭示其科技人才开发的趋势及特点,以期为我国科技人才开发提供借鉴。     

Form of Ownership and Financial Constraints:Panel Data Evidence From Flow of Funds and Investment Equations

This paper analyzes the effects of the form of ownership on the substitutability between internal and external sources of finance in Italy. In particular, we test whether financial constraints are more severe for independent firms compared to members of large national business groups and subsidiaries of foreign multinational corporations. The results obtained from flow of funds and investment equations estimated for a panel of Italian companies imply that independent firms face more severe financial constraints. In fact, not only members of national groups and subsidiaries of multinational corporations find it easier to substitute cash flow with external finance when the former falls but they do not display excess sensitivity to cash flow and debt in their investment decisions.     

外部供需冲击视角下的东亚货币合作可行性研究

区域货币合作在维护区域金融稳定、促进区域经济发展方面具有不可替代的作用。欧洲主权债务危机爆发后,人们对东亚能否继续进行货币合作产生了疑问,有必要结合欧债危机产生的新情况、新问题,从新的视角探讨东亚货币合作的可行性。文章从供给与需求两方面的经济结构冲击对称性视角,对东亚10个经济体之间的冲击相关系数、冲击规模与调整速度进行了实证分析,证实了东亚区域不同经济体之间存在着不同的对称性,具有双边和次区域货币合作的经济基础。同时文章提出东亚区域未来货币合作的形式、实现路径和风险防范措施。     

供求冲击与我国经济外部失衡——基于DSGE两国模型的模拟分析

文章为分析我国经济外部失衡问题,运用当前国际经济学领域先进的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)两国模型研究方法,模拟了在不同消费替代弹性下以技术冲击为代表的供给冲击和以货币冲击为代表的需求冲击对一国经济外部失衡的影响。研究结果表明这两种冲击发生后该国的外部资产和汇率水平会从初始的0均衡状态偏离,而到最终收敛大约需要10年到15年的时间。这可以很好地解释当前我国的经济外部失衡,文章也依此提出了相应的政策建议。     

Determinants of initial technology adoption and intensification: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

In this paper, we examine determinants of initial adoption and subsequent intensification of commercial use of the internet. In contrast to previous examinations that have looked at initial adoption and intensification in the highest income countries, we study companies in Latin America and the Caribbean and so contribute to empirical understanding of the two types of adoption. Many variables such as company size and industry intensification previously identified as influential in high-income regions continue to be important determinants. Novel determinants are also found, including informal sector competition and regional influence. There are sharp differences in determinants between the two adoption types.