ACCOUNTING FOR GOLD: THE SOUTH AFRICAN CASE

Real output measures in the UN System of National Accounts should be continually re-evaluated, to ensure they are providing indicators appropriate for user needs. The South African gold mining industry is an intriguing case in which the conventional output indicators are highly misleading for various analytical purposes, largely because the usual background assumptions are particularly invalid. Due to the size of the industry, its precise treatment can have sizeable effects on estimates of the growth of GDP, particularly over periods when the price of gold changes. A number of easily produced additional output measures are suggested to help analyse productivity growth and differences between the growth of real output and real incomes.     

TO TAX OR NOT TO TAX? THE CASE OF ELECTRONIC COMMERCE

Despite the intensifying debate over the taxation of Internet commerce, the relevant issues have not been given a systematic treatment in the context of the literature on optimal taxation. This article presents such an analysis and investigates separately the taxation of business purchases of intermediate goods, the taxation of consumer purchases of final goods and services, and the various issues of administration and compliance costs as they apply to the development of E-commerce. The authors conclude that generally the optimal tax literature cannot be used in support of a blanket tax exemption for Internet purchases. Certain conditions could lead to the optimality of an exemption, but those conditions are not likely to be met in practice.     

ASSESSING THE WELFARE IMPACT OF TAX REFORM: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2001 U.S. TAX CUT

This paper implements a relatively simple methodological approach to estimate the impact on family welfare of a specific tax reform. The measured impact can differ greatly from simple marginal tax rate comparisons, and conclusions about the distribution of the welfare impact can vary depending on the basis of comparison. For example, absolute welfare gains from the 2001 U.S. tax reform were concentrated among the highest and lowest income families, whereas welfare gains measured as a share of pre‐tax income are found to be nearly monotonically declining in income.     

REEXAMINING THE BORDER TAX EFFECT: A CASE STUDY OF WASHINGTON STATE

Without an income tax, Washington State relies heavily upon its sales tax revenue to fund public goods and services. Bordering Idaho and especially Oregon, where the sales tax is substantially lower, the juxtaposition of the different tax structures generates the border tax effect in Washington's border counties. Controlling for unobservable county‐specific characteristics and spatial autocorrelation, we find that the price elasticity generated by the sales tax discrepancy over the years 1992–2006 is ?3.11. We estimate that elimination of the sales tax differential between Washington and its neighboring states would generate tax revenue in excess of $145 million at the state level and over $21 million at the county level in border counties. (JEL C23, D12, E62, H71)     

THE ACCOUNTING PRICES OF THE FACTORS OF PRODUCTION: AN ESTIMATION OF THEIR PARAMETERS IN THE CASE OF GREECE

It is widely acknowledged that when accounting prices are used instead of market prices in project analysis they provide more adequate indicators of the social acceptability of the alternative investment projects. The first objective of this paper is the formulation of the methodology required for the determination of the accounting prices of the factors of production capital and labour in the case of Greece. The second is the estimation of the parameters needed for their valuation and the third is the derivation, under certain assumptions, of the actual accounting prices of capital and labour and their comparison with market prices in the case of Greece.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE TIMING OF FIRST MARRIAGE*

Among first marriages in the United States, grooms are on average 1.7 years older than their brides. Traditionally, this fact is explained by sex differences in income. We use a general equilibrium, overlapping generations search model economy to show instead that sex differences in fecundity are essential to account for the age gap at first marriage, whereas sex differences in income play a secondary role. Our model economy also accounts for other facts on the timing of first marriages that the literature has overlooked.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF SKILL MEASUREMENT FOR GROWTH ACCOUNTING

In a growth accounting context one usually constructs a quality adjusted index of labor services by aggregating over predefined groups of workers, using the groups' relative wage bills as weights. In this article we suggest a method based on decomposing individual predicted wages into a skill‐related part and a part unrelated to skill, where the former consists of both observed and unobserved components. The predicted wages, associated with individual skill attributes, are sorted and classified into deciles. The median predicted skill‐related wage in each decile is used to construct an alternative skill‐adjusted index of labor services. We find that total factor productivity (TFP) growth decreases significantly when using the latter method. This means that when using the alternative method one explains more of the growth in labor productivity than what a more traditional labor quality adjustment procedure does.     

ACCOUNTING FOR POPULATION AGEING IN TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING BY SURVEY REWEIGHTING*

This paper investigates the use of sample reweighting, in a behavioural tax microsimulation model, to examine the implications for government taxes and expenditure of population ageing in Australia. First, a calibration approach to sample reweighting is described, producing new weights that achieve specified population totals for selected variables. Second, the performance of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) weights provided with the 2000–2001 Survey of Income and Housing Cost (SIHC) was examined and it was found that reweighting does not improve the simulation outcomes for the 2001 situation, so the original ABS weights were retained for 2001. Third, the implications of changes in the age distribution of the population were examined, based on population projections to 2050. A ‘pure’ change in the age distribution was examined by keeping the aggregate population size fixed and changing only the relative frequencies in different age‐gender groups. Finally, the effects of a policy change to benefit taper rates in Australia were compared for 2001 and 2050 population weights. It is suggested that this type of exercise provides an insight into the implications for government income tax revenue and social security expenditure of changes in the population, indicating likely pressures for policy changes.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY

The analysis of international trade, finance and adjustment is hampered by major statistical inadequacies. In theory current account balances of all economies that make up the world economy should add to zero. However, available balance-of-payments data and other major statistical sources show a huge discrepancy. A major source of the discrepancy is found in the inadequate recording of international financial assets and liabilities and related factor income payments. In this paper the author proposes a global economic accounting framework, labelled as the World Accounting Matrix (WAM), which integrates world investment-savings balances, trade flows, factor payments and international flow of funds into one consistent data system on a source-use basis. Data discrepancies can thus be traced and adjusted more systematically. The WAM will provide a new tool for studies on international trade, debt and adjustment and present the accounting framework and the consistent data basis for models of the world economy.     

RATIONALE FOR DISSENT: THE CASE OF FOMC MEMBERS

This paper investigates monetary policymakers' rationale for dissent to test for a hypothesized difference in policy preferences between bank presidents and members of the Board of Governors. The paper analyzes the cited reasons for dissent, the identity of the dissenter, and uses multiple regression to make inferences regarding the differences.
Examining the identity of dissenters and the given reasons for dissent yields four conclusions, (i) A broad base of bank presidents dissent for tighter policy because they want to control inflation by keeping monetary aggregates within targeted ranges. (ii) On the other hand, board members' dissent for tighter policy is dominated by one man–Henry Wallich—who apparently was disturbed by the inflationary outbreak during the late 1970s and early 1980s. (Hi) Several board members dissent for looser policy to stimulate the real economy, (iv) But only a few bank presidents, primarily from the Northeast, dissent for looser policy with the same objective.
Regression analysis supports the assertion that bank presidents dissenting for tighter policy do so to keep monetary aggregates on target in order to control inflation. The analysis confirms Wallich's focus on inflation during the late 1970s and early 1980s. It also allows for the possibility that the various board members dissenting for looser policy either have an inherent preference for looser policy or have diverse reasons for dissent.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE DEMAND FOR TOURISM: THE CASE OF SWITZERLAND

Abstract.  An understanding of the nature of demand is critical for the formulation of a tourism development program. It is also important for developed countries where tourism is an important source of export. Thus, the aim of this paper is two-fold. First, it attempts to estimate an equation of the demand for tourism in order to analyse the different variables that influence the number of nights spent in a given destination. Second, by breaking up the total number of nights according to country of origin, it studies the reaction of tourists to given economic variables according to their origin.     

CURRENT COST ACCOUNTING: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEFINITION AND MEASUREMENT OF CORPORATE INCOME

This paper is in 7 sections. Section 1 gives as background a chronological account of the steps taken in the United Kingdom, from 1974 to late 1977, towards the development of a new system of accounting in company reports which would allow for the effect of changing costs and prices on the measurement of profit and of capital employed in the business. Section 2 discusses the main features of the system, known as current cost accounting, as it is seen in the United Kingdom. Section 3 surveys the relationship between current cost accounting and the national income and expenditure statistics, and the likely implications of the introduction of current cost accounting upon the quality of macro-economic statistics, including estimates of national and sector balance sheets. Section 4 describes some of the problems of implementing current cost accounting, particularly in special situations, and outlines the solutions which were proposed in the "Exposure Draft" published in 1976 by the accountancy profession in the United Kingdom. Section 5 considers the definition of distributable profit in relation to the need to maintain capital, considering the concept of gain, the system of valuing assets and liabilities, and the enterprise's capacity to take on additional debt as a means of financing its assets. Section 6 briefly surveys the implications for taxation, price control and price setting. Section 7 concludes by surveying the scene at the end of 1977 and by looking at likely future developments.     

THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF THE NRU FOR POLICY MAKING: THE CASE OF DENMARK

We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisions. We show that the unemployment rate does not gravitate towards the NRU due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay between lagged adjustment processes and growth in dynamic labour market systems. We choose Denmark as the focal point of our empirical analysis and find that the NRU explains only 33% of the unemployment variation, while frictional growth accounts for the remaining 67%. Therefore, our theoretical and empirical findings raise doubts as to whether the NRU should play such a key instrumental role in policy making.     

STRATEGIES FOR RAPID ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE CASE OF HONG KONG

This paper reviews factors that significantly affected Hong Kong's rapid economic development in three consecutive periods: (i) the period of industrialization from 1952 to 1974, (ii) the period of diversification from 1974 to 1980, and (iii) the period of economic integration with China since 1980. The paper discusses the role of Hong Kong's government in the territory's development process, examines the advantages and drawbacks of Hong Kong's development strategy, and analyzes the territory's economic future. The analysis relates Hong Kong's development experience to the "endogenous growth" theory.     

INCOME REDISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE TAX SYSTEM: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF TAX REFORM

In this paper, we consider reforming the tax system to a comprehensive income tax model in order to amend the differential treatment of income sources. Our simulation analysis shows that the tax reform improves the effectiveness of the tax system on the redistribution of all sources of income including earned income, financial wealth income, and imputed rent. The analysis of incidence of the tax reform suggests that the tax burden for young renters decreases the most and that for young loan-free land owners increases the most through this tax reform.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE EFFECTS OF NEW AND DISAPPEARING GOODS USING SCANNER DATA

With the "discovery" of scanner data by statistical agencies and researchers comes a wealth of new information upon which price index calculations can be based. Old problems, such as the appearance and disappearance of goods over time, are likely to be an important feature of such data. However, given that scanner data includes the prices and quantities of the population of transactions we have more information than is traditionally available to deal with the new and disappearing goods problem. We adopt a recently developed approach using the Constant Elasticity of Substitution cost function to provide a detailed empirical analysis of the effects of new and disappearing goods for an Australian scanner data set of supermarket products. Our results indicate that the failure to account for new and disappearing goods in the cost-of-living index leads to a significant upward bias.