Executive compensation and risk: The case of internet firms

A major prediction of agency theory is that there is a trade-off between risk and incentive compensation. Aggarwal and Samwick (1999) [Aggarwal, R., Samwick, A., 1999. The other side of the trade-off: the impact of risk on executive compensation. Journal of Political Economy, 107, 65–105.] directly test and find results consistent with agency theory—pay-performance sensitivity is decreasing in risk. However, Prendergast, 2002, Prendergast, 2000 [Prendergast, C. 2002. The tenuous trade-off between risk and incentives. Journal of Political Economy 110 (5), 1071–1102; Prendergast, C. 2000. What trade-off risk and incentives? The American Economic Review 90 (2), 421–425.] offers a number of reasons why the sensitivity of pay to performance can be higher in risky environments. We use data from a sample of Internet firms for 1997–1999 to provide empirical evidence on these competing arguments regarding the relation between risk and CEO compensation. Consistent with Aggarwal and Samwick (1999), our results show that pay–performance sensitivity declines with increases in variance in a base model. After controlling for size, we find that pay–performance sensitivity is positively related to risk, consistent with the theoretical predictions in Prendergast, 2002, Prendergast, 2000. However, sensitivity tests in later periods show that the Aggarwal and Samwick (1999) results are more robust to changes in the economic environment.     

Risk and return: Long-run relations,fractional cointegration,and return predictability

Univariate dependencies in market volatility, both objective and risk neutral, are best described by long-memory fractionally integrated processes. Meanwhile, the ex post difference, or the variance swap payoff reflecting the reward for bearing volatility risk, displays far less persistent dynamics. Using intraday data for the Standard & Poor's 500 and the volatility index (VIX), coupled with frequency domain methods, we separate the series into various components. We find that the coherence between volatility and the volatility-risk reward is the strongest at long-run frequencies. Our results are consistent with generalized long-run risk models and help explain why classical efforts of establishing a naïve return-volatility relation fail. We also estimate a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (CFVAR). The model-implied long-run equilibrium relation between the two variance variables results in nontrivial return predictability over interdaily and monthly horizons, supporting the idea that the cointegrating relation between the two variance measures proxies for the economic uncertainty rewarded by the market.     

Social media and price discovery: The case of cross-listed firms

In this article, we examine whether social media information affects the price-discovery process for cross-listed companies. Using over 29 million overnight tweets mentioning cross-listed companies, we examine the role of social media for a link between the last periods of trading in the US markets and the first periods in the UK market. Our estimates suggest that the size and content of information flows on social networks support the price-discovery process. The interactions between lagged US stock features and overnight tweets significantly affect stock returns and volatility of cross-listed stocks when the UK market opens. These effects weaken and disappear 1 to 3 hr after the opening of the UK market. We also develop a profitable trading strategy based on overnight social media, and the profits remain economically significant after considering transaction costs.     

Distributive inefficiency in horizontal mergers: Evidence from wealth transfers between merging firms and their customers

The ultimate goal of antitrust enforcement is to maximize the surplus consumers enjoy by enhancing production efficiency and eliminating market power. Previous literature focuses on the average net wealth effects on merging firms and their stakeholder firms and reports evidence of efficiency gains while no evidence of market power in horizontal mergers. In this paper, we examine how efficiency gains distribute between the merging firms and their customer firms. We find a significant negative relation between the combined abnormal returns on the merging firms and those on their customer firms, demonstrating a wealth transfer effect. Such a negative relation is more pronounced when market power is likely to be more intensive. On average, the merging firms gain, and their customers do not lose. Our results suggest that market power allows merging firms to withhold merger gains that would have been passed to the downstream under perfect competition and prevents customers from enjoying the whole consumer surplus. Distributive inefficiency exists in horizontal mergers.     

Shunning careers in public accounting firms: The case of Indonesia

A rapidly growing emerging economy such as Indonesia has an increasing need for qualified accountants to service the many needs of business. However, the current dearth of qualified accountants is becoming critical, and this situation will only get worse as Big 4 firms, mid-tier firms and local firms struggle to recruit enough trainees to qualify as professional accountants. This study examines the plight of the Indonesian accounting profession by investigating why accounting students are shunning the profession, possibly leading to the demise of the Indonesian profession as we know it today.The study shows that although career intention constantly changes as new experiences are encountered, background factors matter. Ethnicity, living in an urban or rural environment, and where one is educated all matter to career intention. Further, one's own self-efficacy, such as English language ability, and other people's views are all influential in where we want to work.To address this looming crisis in the profession the Indonesian government needs to implement policies that ensure that the education curriculum addresses English language literacy, especially in rural areas; and the profession needs to engage more with remoter universities in rural locations to recruit high achieving students to provide greater diversity in the profession.     

Risk and return in real estate

Basic information is provided on the returns and risks from 1978 through 1985 for unleveraged equity real estate compared with stocks and bonds. Data sources include the Russell-NCREIF index, the Evaluation Associates index, and the Goldman Sachs equity real estate investment trust index. Findings reveal that the aggregate return for the publicly traded equity real estate investment trust index in nearly twice that of the other real estate series, and more than twice that of the Standard & Poor index. The equity real estate investment trust is far more volatile than the other two real estate series. Neither the Goldman Sachs nor the other two indexes exactly measure the returns or risks on equity real estate. The volatility of the equity real estate investment trust leads it to overstate the risk of this investment category, while the other two indexes are not return indexes. Estimates from this study indicate that real estate risk lies plausibly midway between that of stocks and bonds, in the 9 percent to 13 percent range.     

Risk,return, and dividends

Using only the definition of returns, together with a transversality assumption, we demonstrate that given a dividend process, any one of three variables—expected return, return volatility, and the price–dividend ratio—completely determines the other two. By parameterizing only one of these processes, common empirical specifications place strong, and sometimes counter-factual, restrictions on the dynamics of the other variables. Our findings lend insight into the nature of the risk–return relation and the predictability of stock returns.     

Risk and return of short-duration equity investments

We analyze short-duration equity investments using traded claims on index dividends. We show that investment strategies with constant short maturity outperform a systematic long position in the underlying equity index on a risk-adjusted basis and in absolute terms. Furthermore, we find higher international diversification benefits for this strategy, compared to traditional equity indices. We relate the observed outperformance to market downside exposure, in particular an options-based downside risk factor. We use three alternative models to extract ex-ante risk premia implied in the prices of dividend derivatives and find evidence for substantial time variation in expected returns.     

Determinants of the guarantee circles: The case of Chinese listed firms

China's external capital market has been developing rapidly since the establishment of its stock markets. However, financing from the internal capital market, especially through the guarantee system provided by other associated firms (the guarantee circle), remains significant for some Chinese firms. We analyze the importance associated with the guarantee system in China with a focus on the macro and micro determinants that affect Chinese firms' participation in the guarantee circle. Our findings suggest that both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors have significant impact on a firm's involvement in the guarantee circle. Firms in regions with higher economic growth, less developed banking system and worse legal protection are more likely to receive guarantee from firms associated with the controlling shareholders. On the other hand, firms controlled by the state are less likely to receive guarantee but more likely to provide guarantee, while firms with alternative financing sources are more likely to provide guarantee. Firms within a complex group with more pyramidal layers are more likely to get involved in the guarantee circle, either as a guarantor or a guarantee. Our findings have implications to general guarantee systems with the presence of agency and moral hazard problems.     

Determinants of the guarantee circles: The case of Chinese listed firms

China's external capital market has been developing rapidly since the establishment of its stock markets. However, financing from the internal capital market, especially through the guarantee system provided by other associated firms (the guarantee circle), remains significant for some Chinese firms. We analyze the importance associated with the guarantee system in China with a focus on the macro and micro determinants that affect Chinese firms' participation in the guarantee circle. Our findings suggest that both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors have significant impact on a firm's involvement in the guarantee circle. Firms in regions with higher economic growth, less developed banking system and worse legal protection are more likely to receive guarantee from firms associated with the controlling shareholders. On the other hand, firms controlled by the state are less likely to receive guarantee but more likely to provide guarantee, while firms with alternative financing sources are more likely to provide guarantee. Firms within a complex group with more pyramidal layers are more likely to get involved in the guarantee circle, either as a guarantor or a guarantee. Our findings have implications to general guarantee systems with the presence of agency and moral hazard problems.     

The impact of SFAS No. 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms: Evidence from the initial year of implementation

This study examines the impact of SFAS 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms. I expect a relative improvement in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy for merging firms versus non-merging peers after SFAS 141 adoption. I restrict the post-SFAS 141 sample to the initial year of SFAS 141 implementation. This research design disentangles effects of SFAS No. 141 from those of SFAS No. 142. The evidence from analysis of 48 pairs of merging and matched non-merging firms is consistent with expectations and confirms the increase in earnings predictability for merging firms versus their non-merging peers post-SFAS 141. Results of additional tests suggest that earnings predictability improvement more likely follows from extended disclosure requirements and the other changes in the Purchase Method (“better purchase” issue) than from the elimination of Poolings-of-Interest (“purchase vs. pooling” issue).     

Competing for underwriting market share: The case of commercial banks and securities firms

This study analyzes changes in the underwriting market share of securities firms and commercial banks over a 20-year period that encompasses the deregulation period of 1989–1999. The study finds that, after controlling for firm combination effects, there is no evidence that commercial banks gained share at the expense of ranked traditional underwriters. There is strong evidence that market breadth helps both securities firms and commercial banks to gain market share, whereas greater share in the underwriting of a specific security has the opposite effect on next year's market share. There is supportive but limited evidence that high-volume years favor commercial banks, whereas low-volume years favor prestigious underwriters. The influence of firm-specific factors is limited to a few markets, which may explain the stickiness of underwriting market share of ranked firms over time.     

Risk and return on long-lived tangible assets

Assuming rational expectations, a specialization of Ross' Arbitrage Pricing Theory is used to obtain a simple securities market valuation formula when dividends follow linear stochastic processes. The implications of this model for the use of accounting data to measure risk and for capital budgeting are explored. A new measure of riskiness based on accounting data is derived, and the use of risk-adjusted discount rates is evaluated.     

How do partial acquisitions affect the wealth of acquiring firms? The case of Japanese firms

This study examines how and why partial acquisitions affect the wealth of acquiring firms in Japan. Few studies have focused on acquiring firms in partial acquisitions, whereas many studies have investigated target firms. The empirical results show that the shareholder wealth of acquiring firms, which can increase through partial acquisitions, is much lower than that of target firms. In addition, acquiring firms and their targets differ in how they enhance their wealth from partial acquisitions—acquiring firms can enhance their wealth by exploiting the wealth of target firms, while target firms can enhance their wealth by obtaining support from acquiring firms.     

Earnings management induced by tax planning: The case of Portuguese private firms

In Portugal, a concept of taxable income associated closely with reported accounting income is used to determine the tax liability of firms. Recently, the Portuguese government legislated to introduce a system of “special payment on account” (SPA). Firms were required to pay an amount of income tax in advance that varied between a promulgated minimum and maximum. Although such a tax is unique to Portugal, other countries have tax arrangements that are similar in intent. Thus, Portugal's experience with the introduction of a SPA regime is likely to be instructive in fiscal policy deliberations in other settings.We assess the extent to which the SPA tax policy measure encouraged private Portuguese companies to manipulate earnings. We find that earnings manipulation appears to have been motivated by desire to minimize SPA. Firms whose estimate of SPA liability fell within the range of minimum and maximum limits of the SPA had higher levels of discretionary accruals than firms whose estimate was (equal to or) above the ceiling imposed by the new legislation. Firms with higher rates of income tax were found to reduce earnings to near zero. Firms with higher average income tax rates were more likely to manipulate their earnings than other firms.Our results reinforce the importance for auditors, stakeholders, and tax policy advisors to be alert to the close association between tax planning considerations and reported earnings in their monitoring, analysis, and policy advising activities.     

Risk measurement distortion: an improved model of return smoothing

We examine the effects of smoothed hedge fund returns on standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of return and on correlation of returns using a MA(2)-GARCH(1,1)-skewed-t representation instead of the traditional MA(2) model employed in the literature. We present evidence that our proposed representation is more consistent with the behavior of hedge fund returns than the traditional MA(2) representation and that the traditional method tends to overstate the degree of smoothing observed in hedge fund returns. We examine methods for correcting the distortive effects of smoothing using our representation.     

Risk and return: Janaury vs. the rest of the year

This paper examines the seasonality in the basic relationship between expected return and risk during 1935–82. The results reveal that the positive relationship between return and risk is unique to January. The risk premiums during the remaining eleven months are not significantly different from zero.     

Risk disclosure and cost of equity: The Spanish case

In this paper we make an empirical study of the relationship between risk disclosure and the cost of equity. In particular, the objective being pursued is to contrast whether or not the cost of equity for the company is related to its financial and non-financial risk disclosure. Our results show no statistically significant relationship between the latter and the cost of equity; and a statistically significant relationship, with a positive sign, between this cost and financial risk disclosure. This suggests that company risk disclosures appear to introduce unknown contingencies and risk factors rather than only update information about known risks.     

Risk and return in residential spatial markets: An empiric and theoretic model

The paper is concerned with price and rent fluctuations in predominantly owner-occupied residental real estate. It presents the owner-occupier household as a housing consumer as well as an investor. It conjectures that since risk and return are known to be positively related in financial markets, they might also be thus related in residential real estate markets. If that is so, neighborhoods that are known to yield high returns will be the ones less price and rent stable than low yielding ones.The Capital Asset Pricing Model is not helpful in explaining a possible risk/return relationship in housing markets. Its major assumption about portfolio diversification is contrary to the nature of owner-occupied residential real estate. An owner occupier household, by definition, holds one unit of the asset and acts simultaneously as an investor and consumer of housing. For the capital market investor, investment and consumption decisions are separable. Therefore, a new theoretical model of consumer choice is proposed. Tel-Aviv price and rent data during a volatile market period are used for testing the main risk/return conjecture as well as other related hypotheses stemming from the model. The findings lend support to the conjecture and shed light on possible spatial determinants of owners' risk.     

The impact of financial reporting quality on debt maturity: the case of private firms

We examine whether the debt maturity structure of privately held firms is associated with the quality of their earnings numbers. We argue that earnings numbers that are better able to predict future cash flows lower information asymmetry between privately held firms and their creditors, improving privately held firms’ access to long-term debt. Furthermore, we examine whether the relationship between privately held firms’ earnings quality and their debt maturity differs between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and larger privately held firms. Using detailed financial statement information from a sample of privately held Belgian firms, we find that earnings quality is positively associated with the likelihood of having long-term debt and with the proportion of long-term debt in total debt. Further, we report evidence that these associations are more pronounced for SMEs than for larger privately held firms, which is consistent with smaller firms entailing more fundamental risk for creditors.