Does food aid have disincentive effects on local production? A general equilibrium perspective on food aid in Ethiopia

This paper examined impacts of food aid on domestic food production employing a computable general equilibrium modelling technique and using data from Ethiopia. The simulation experiments have shown that food aid has unambiguous disincentive effects on domestic food production. The removal of food aid caused a modest increase in food prices but this stimulated food production. Employment and income generation effects of the latter outweighed the adverse effect of the former. Consequently, the removal of food aid led to improvements in aggregate household welfare. Contrary to some concerns in the food aid literature that any reduction in food aid would hurt the poor, the simulation experiments suggested that actually poor rural households and urban wage earners are the ones who benefit most in absence of food aid but entrepreneurs are more likely to encounter a marginal welfare decline. We have distinguished between in-kind food aid and cash equivalent transfers in order to isolate the disincentives that in-kind transfers would make to domestic production from those that are related to household purchasing power problem. The expansionary effect of removing food aid becomes significantly larger when it is accompanied by cash equivalent payments because the latter would provide demand side stimulus to agriculture while the removal of in-kind transfers would stimulate supply side, with the supply and demand side effects reinforcing each other. In our modelling framework, the only adverse effect would be a modest deterioration in the external current account, because the expansionary effects of food aid would cause imports to rise but exports to fall.     

Women and food aid: a developmental perspective

The unique aspect of food aid projects is that food, rather than money, is used for achieving developmental objectives. As food is usually controlled by women, they benefit most from considering it to be of economic value. Poor women seem to be short of resources--time and money--which can be supplemented by food aid. Through its income-transfer effect, food aid can enable women to work fewer hours/day and thus have more discretionary time. It can also provide, directly or indirectly, the cash necessary for women to use skills they already possess to set themselves up in small businesses. Food aid projects achieve their developmental objectives through: the nutritional content of the distributed commodity; the income transfer effect; cooperatives or associations; specific activities associated with the project; community improvement aspects resulting from the project; and provision of budgetary support to release resources for additional developmental activities. There are a number of ways through which food aid exerts its effect on women from a developmental perspective. Consumption of the food aid commodity provides women with an improved diet. Food aid as an income transfer can enable women to have more discretionary time. Providing women with opportunities for income-generating activities is an important aspect of development. Women's cooperatives or associations funded by food aid commodities can provide women with income. Current food aid projects, if properly planned, can be beneficial to women without the incorporation of specific activities or skills training. One way that food aid helps women gain more time is by freeing them from wage employment. Another way is to use the income transfer for the purchasing of consumer goods that reduce their labor.     

The food system transformation in developing countries: A disaggregate demand analysis for fruits and vegetables in Vietnam

Food systems in developing countries are currently undergoing a rapid transformation towards high-value products and modern supply chains. While supply side aspects of this transformation have been analyzed previously, issues of consumer demand have received much less attention. This article analyses demand patterns for fresh fruits and vegetables in Vietnam, using household survey data and a demand systems approach. Demand for products from modern supply chains – particularly supermarkets and non-traditional imports – is highly income elastic, and the income effect is stronger than the impact of prices and supermarket penetration. This highlights the importance of considering demand side aspects when projecting future trends. Our results imply a continued restructuring of the food sector in the further process of economic development.     

Do the urban poor face higher food prices? Evidence from Vietnam

Whether there is a poverty penalty, in terms of food prices, is unsettled in the literature after more than four decades of study. Unit values from household surveys suggest that prices vary with income while outlet surveys typically find food prices varying with store type but not with neighborhood income. Most outlet surveys are from rich countries, with just one spatially limited study from a developing country. In this paper we use especially collected food price data from metropolitan areas of Vietnam to test whether the urban poor face higher food prices. Food prices in low-income neighborhoods are 1% lower, on average, than in other neighborhoods. Unit values give a different answer to the question of whether the poor face higher prices and are not suited to answer such a question.     

Integrating climate change,food prices and population health

The inter-related nature of food, health and climate change requires a better understanding of the linkages and a greater alignment of policy across these issues to be able to adequately meet the pressing social and health challenges arising from climate change. Food price is one way through which climate change may affect health. The aim of this study of the global and Australian food systems is to provide a whole-of-system analysis of food price vulnerabilities, highlighting the key pressure points across the food system through which climate change could potentially have the greatest impact on consumer food prices and the implications for population health. We outline areas where there are particular vulnerabilities for food systems and food prices arising from climate change, particularly global commodity prices; agricultural productivity; short term supply shocks; and less direct factors such as input costs and government policies. We use Australia as a high-income country case study to consider these issues in more detail. The complex and dynamic nature of pricing mechanisms makes it difficult to predict precisely how prices will be impacted. Should prices rise disproportionately among healthy foodstuffs compared to less healthy foods there may be adverse health outcomes if less expensive and less healthy foods are substituted. Higher prices will also have equity implications with lower socio-economic groups most impacted given these households currently spend proportionately more of their weekly income on food. The ultimate objective of this research is to identify the pathways through the food system via which climate change may affect food prices and ultimately population health, thereby providing evidence for food policy which takes into account environmental and health considerations.     

Consumer acceptability of yellow maize products in Zimbabwe

This study analyzes consumers’ awareness of and attitudes towards yellow maize products in Zimbabwe and suggests intervention strategies that will ensure increased production and consumption of the crop, which is rich in provitamin A to help prevent the incidence of vitamin A deficiency prevalent among vulnerable groups. Data from 360 randomly selected rural and urban households show that yellow maize is known to all but few are aware of its nutritional qualities or consume it. The main source of supply is imported food aid. Rich in oils, carotenoids and fructose, yellow maize easily undergoes chemical changes to produce unacceptable organoleptic properties (or bad taste) if poorly handled during importation. These two factors are responsible for it being perceived inferior to white maize by consumers. Quality assurance during importation can improve consumer confidence but a long-term strategy will be to vigorously promote domestic production of yellow maize varieties rich in high levels of β-carotene that meet the preferences of consumers. Drawing from a probit model regression analysis, nutritional education can potentially promote yellow maize consumption, especially if targeted at low income households. Domestic production and consumption of yellow maize will decrease vitamin A deficiency among vulnerable groups and improve food insecurity through reduced grain prices and increased incomes for farmers. These results draw attention to the need for policy makers in developing countries to review their agricultural policies to ensure that they do not undermine the local production and consumption of nutritionally valuable crops.     

Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: A Mixed Demand approach

Food subsidy is one of the policies considered to protect consumer welfare against food price increases, in particular when the insufficient local production has to be complemented by food imports with volatile prices. Egypt has experienced several “food crises” (the latest in 2008), which put an halt to attempts to reform in depth the system of food subsidies because of social unrest. In this paper, we use a Mixed Demand approach to analyze the consumption structure of Egyptian households. Our model specification takes into consideration the characteristics of the Egyptian food subsidy system, where some food items have predetermined quotas while others are associated with predetermined (subsidized) prices. Price, income and quota elasticities are estimated from the Egyptian family expenditure survey, and welfare change measures are derived by income class. Simulations of various options to eliminate subsidies on selected food items are conducted. We estimate the negative welfare impact of the reforms, especially in the context of increasing food prices, by comparing welfare effects of policy options by income quartiles and by household category (rural, urban).     

Tracing feeding programme drop-outs

Supplementary feeding programmes have been used as one outlet for the food aid which is sent to developing nations. In the November 1978 issue of Food Policy, Simon Maxwell analyzed the costs and benefits of supplementary feeding projects, in terms of both nutritional and non nutritional results.¹ In considering the importance of such results, trie rate and health status of programme drop-outs can significantly affect conclusions. An exercise demonstrating the differences in results, depending on assumptions about dropouts, is presented here for a World Food Programme (WFP) feeding project in Mexico.     

Does peer monitoring influence choices between cash and food? Findings from a field experiment

To explore whether choices for transfers are influenced by peer monitoring, we examine private versus public choices among monetarily equivalent values of cash and food in northern Kenya. Many northern Kenyan communities face high-levels of chronic food insecurity and are tightly-knit, often sharing food aid transfers. Yet, humanitarian cash transfers are relatively new to the area. Whether cash will be subject to the same sharing norms is not well understood. Utilizing a randomized block experiment, we find that assigning a respondent to choose in front of peers decreases the likelihood of choosing a cash transfer relative to at least some food. We argue that peer monitoring decreases the value of cash relative to food in two inter-related ways. Choosing food in public, first, provides an opportunity for respondents to publicly demonstrate a commitment to local food aid sharing norms. Second, choosing cash in public may be riskier since cash does not yet have established sharing norms. A critical implication is that transfer choices and retargeting of resources within the community can be influenced by use of public or private discussions when eliciting community views, especially in communities where sharing is a salient social norm.     

Food aid,domestic policy and food security: Contrasting experiences from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Food aid, both for short-term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium-term food “deficits”, is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries. This study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid (India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Zambia) regarding food production, trade, markets, consumption and safety nets, as well as the policy responses to food emergencies. The widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure, is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers, and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security. However, food aid is not the only, or in many cases, the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity. In many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in-kind.     

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

In recent times, considerable attention has been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in the international food prices which took place in 2007–8 and 2010–11. While understandable, this growing focus has perhaps obscured the impact of other variables affecting malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the long-term impact of agricultural policies on food supply and prices, large and persistent seasonal variations in food prices, and the impact of famines which still affect parts of the continent. This paper focuses on the relative impact of these factors on child malnutrition (measured by the number of child admissions to feeding centres) in Malawi and Niger, two countries which closely represent the situation of other small, landlocked, subsistence agricultural economies facing severe food security problems. Our analysis shows that in these countries the drivers of changes in domestic staple prices and child malnutrition are related not only – or not primarily – to variations of international food prices but also to the impact of agricultural policies on food production and prices, in a persistent food price seasonality, and in recurrent and poorly managed famines. These factors can exert a strong upward pressure on food prices and child malnutrition even during years of falling international prices.     

Does how you pay influence the share of healthy items that you Buy? Assessing differences in nutritional quality of food purchases by payment type

Shoppers that use cash as a form of payment are more likely to evaluate the necessity of an item they purchase than shoppers that pay with other forms of payment, such as credit cards. In this paper, we hypothesize that the use of cash may nudge shoppers to buy more healthful food items. We empirically evaluate whether the payment method affects the nutritional quality of food purchases. We also test whether the effect of payment type differs between food-at-home and food-away-from-home events. Specifically, we test whether shoppers purchase a higher share of nutritious food items when they pay with cash compared to when they use credit and debit cards. We use the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) data that tracks individual’s food purchases over one week. Using the Guiding Stars Program (GSP) algorithm to measure the nutritional quality of food items, we calculate the share of healthy items purchased at each event. We find that shoppers using cash purchase a higher share of healthy items than when they use credit or debit cards, and this nudging effect is primarily driven by food-away-from-home purchases.     

Farmers' consumption of an imported cereal and the cash/foodcrop decision: An example from Senegal

The effects of key agricultural policies on Senegalese farmers are analysed through a survey combining farming systems research methods, family budgets, dietary and anthropometric studies for the same rural households. Policies impact their food consumption through farm and non-farm incomes, prices of inputs, extension and research, and the prices of basic foods. Food consumption is closely related to family success in mixed cropping, but millet remains the basic rural food. Although rice has deeply penetrated rural markets, a maintenance of export earnings will require simultaneous gains in yields for both cash and traditional foodcrops.     

Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices

Crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices. The literature, however, does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes. To fill the gap, we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural commodity and food policy analysis. Using a world market model with short- to long-run yield response, we show the impacts of sustained energy price shocks on global cereal supply and demand. The results highlight substantial differences in quantity and price effects depending on the yield elasticities. These results demonstrate the need to recognize yield response when assessing impacts of energy prices or biofuel production on food uses or, more generally, on food security in the face of income and population growth, evolving dietary patterns, climate change implications, or other long-run pressures.     

A welfare measure of consumer vulnerability to rising prices of food imports in the UAE

The recent and expected continuing rise in food prices has re-ignited concern and discussion in the United Arab Emirates about the country’s vulnerability to food supply shocks. Defining vulnerability as the compensating variation relative to household income, we find that although UAE households in the lowest income quintile spend on food on average less than a quarter of what households in the highest income quintile spend, the former are 3.5 times more vulnerable to rising prices of food imports than the latter.     

Syrian food security in the 1970s and 1980s

An analysis of changes in domestic production, foreign trade and aid in Syria from 1970 to the late 1980s reveals a marked contrast between the two decades. In the 1970s per capita incomes expanded rapidly due to the regional oil boom. Demand for food grew quickly and, despite respectable supply growth, food imports as a percentage of consumption increased. During the 1980s income per capita stagnated and demand growth slowed. At the same time a series of poor rainfall years reduced domestic supply growth and increased production variability, yet food imports showed no trend     

Hospitals: The Market for Health Care Facilities

Health care facilities include hospitals and nursing homes. Demand for beds and occupancy depends on income, prices and insurer restrictions. The supply of beds is limited by regulatory certificates of need. The implied equilibrium vacancy leads to a trade-off with rate increases. Rate increases establish an asset price for a hospital bed. If prices of health care rise faster than income and nonhealth prices, patients demand less bed availability and occupancy. Rising vacancy and rising prices occur, consistent with the empirical observations for U.S. health care facilities. For 1980–2001, the equilibrium vacancy rate for U.S. hospitals is between 27% and 36% depending on capacity adjustments, bed availability and price expectations. Equilibrium vacancy is near the actual rate after 2000, but that rate is 11 percentage points higher than in the early 1980s when the number of beds was nearly one-third higher. Usually rent regulation leads to excess demand. But in a general equilibrium model with income, relative prices, expectations, supply and capital markets, price regulation can coexist with excess supply.     

New agricultural technology and smallfarmers in Latin America

Biased income distribution in agriculture as a result of the green revolution towards better agricultural regions and larger farmers has been justified by declining prices for rice and wheat making consumers the main beneficiaries of this new technology. But, there are two arguments for focusing future agricultural technology towards small farmers and poorer resource regions. First, evidence suggests that there is little productivity or nutritional improvement from migration. Second, unless the supply of prime areas can be made more elastic, most of the small farmer food crops, even with new technology, will not be sufficiently profitable to displace the high value activities currently found in these areas in Latin America.     

Do poverty and poor health and nutrition increase the risk of armed conflict onset?

We analyze the effects of improving the economic, food security and health status on the risk of armed cotntectflict onset, focusing on the factors related to the millennium development goals. We employ the discrete-time hazard model that allows us to examine the time-varying effects of socioeconomic factors controlling for the reverse effect of conflict. Our results show that income poverty and poor health and nutritional status are more significantly associated with armed conflict onset than GDP per capita, annual GDP growth, and the ratio of primary commodity exports over GDP. In particular, poor health and nutritional status seems to play a key role in inducing armed conflicts in poor countries. These results indicate that, when a majority of the poor and the malnourished resides in rural areas and depends on agriculture directly or indirectly, investments in public goods for agriculture and rural areas can be effective tools to achieve the multiple goals of reduced poverty, food security and armed conflict, including riots in early 2008 triggered by high food prices. Food policy can be an effective element of efforts to maintain stability.     

From `food aid' to `aid for food': into the 21st century

Food aid deserves much credit for having pioneered in the 1950/60s the transfer of large quantities of resources to the poorest nations and people inflicted with poverty and hunger. In recent years, the magnitude of this aid has drastically diminished. Fortunately, many of the programs that used to receive food aid are now funded by financial aid. The paper argues that it may have become counter-productive to plead for `food aid', because it distracts attention from the fact that many food shortages can be alleviated as well, or even better, with financial aid. It might be more effective to solicit `aid for food' and to assure an adequate allocation of overseas development assistance for the purpose, irrespective of the supply of food aid.The policies, of which food aid was a by-product and which have led to the accumulation of large food surpluses in the industrial countries and the inhibition of the efficient functioning of food markets in the developing countries, have by now become thoroughly discredited. Is it in parallel, not also high time to question the appropriateness of the public distribution of food to nations and people, short on food?