TESTING ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES

Product input–output (IO) tables are mainly constructed on the basis of product and/or industry technology assumptions. The choice is not trivial and deserves empirical analysis using input and output data at the level of establishments. This paper offers input–output compilers econometric tests to facilitate the construction of tailored hybrid technology-based product IO tables. We provide weighted likelihood ratios of the product and industry technology assumptions. Although the proposed econometric tests are aimed to be used ex ante, we construct four variants of hybrid technology-based product IO tables using establishment data from Andalusia (Spain) and contrast them to the official product IO table and the pure product and industry technology-based tables. Our econometric tests are not valid for industry IO tables.     

PROCESSING TRADE BIASES THE MEASUREMENT OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN CHINA

Vertical specialization (VS) is often measured by the import contents of the exports, using an input–output (I–O) framework. Half of China's exports are processing exports, which largely depend on imported intermediate inputs and tie up upstream as well as downstream trade partners. Thus, one would expect to find strong VS for China. Using the ‘ordinary’ I–O tables, however, this is not the case. Because the production of processing exports is only a small part of total production, the average input structure in the I–O table hides the typical features of processing exports. Using adapted, tripartite I–O tables (for 2002 and 2007) in which the processing exports have been singled out, indeed reveals the expected strong VS in China.     

THE BIAS OF THE MULTIPLIER MATRIX WHEN SUPPLY AND USE TABLES ARE STOCHASTIC

The literature on stochastic input–output (I–O) analysis has paid considerable attention to the bias in the Leontief inverse. This paper extends previous studies by assuming supply and use tables (SUTs rather than I–O tables or input coefficients matrices) to be stochastic. This is a natural starting point because SUTs have become the basic data sources for I–O applications. In a Monte Carlo simulation experiment, a given SUT is randomized in two different ways and the effects are determined for eight different multiplier matrices. The analysis is carried out for Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and Finland, using their SUTs for 2006. The findings indicate that, in general, biases are statistically significant but negligibly small. This corroborates earlier findings obtained for stochastic I–O tables.     

FROM INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES TO SUPPLY-AND-USE TABLES

In 1991, Statistics Netherlands introduced the supply-and-use tables as part of the national accounts. Since then, the supply-and-use tables have been the main statistics on the production structure of the Dutch economy. They form the basis from which input–output tables are derived. The time series of supply-and-use tables starts in 1987. However, there is a need for a time series since 1970 because benchmark revisions of the Dutch national accounts would become far easier if such time series were available. Therefore, a method has been developed to derive supply-and-use tables from existing input–output tables. This article presents the algorithm.     

Alternative Approaches of Physical Input–Output Analysis to Estimate Primary Material Inputs of Production and Consumption Activities

In the last few years, a number of studies have been presented that link material flow accounting and input–output analysis (based on monetary input–output tables) for the calculation of direct and indirect resource inputs for production and consumption activities. The compilation of the first physical input–output tables for some European countries in the 1990s opened new possibilities for linking physical accounting and input– output analysis. Physical input–output analysis has so far only been applied for selected materials, but it has not been used for comprehensive assessments of material requirements of economic activities. In this paper, possibilities and limits of this new input–output approach are clarified. We present and discuss a procedure similar to monetary input– output analysis and develop an alternative approach to account for primary inputs and waste otherwise not included in the analysis. Based on aggregated input–output tables for Germany, we present numerical examples intended to compare the alternative approaches of physical input–output analysis.     

New multi-regional input–output databases for Australia – enabling timely and flexible regional analysis

ABSTRACT

Decision-making at regional scales requires timely information. Within four months of the release of official national statistics, we have produced a time-series (2008–2015) of balanced sub-national, multi-regional supply-and-use tables (MR-SUT), integrated with a set of socio-economic and environmental accounts. This was achieved using the Australian IELab, where data used in this study are available (https://ielab.info/resources/91). Four multi-regional, environmentally extended supply-use tables regionalised in different ways were produced to demonstrate the flexibility of tailoring input–output models to specific research or policy questions. Results for satellite coefficients are sensitive to the chosen regional grouping and method for regionalisation. We demonstrate the relevance of such purpose-built information to government and corporate decision-makers by analysing the indirect economic and employment consequences of a slowdown of the mining boom in Western Australia. The demonstrated innovations in flexibility and timeliness will help move past some of the limitations that have historically hindered the uptake and utility of applied input–output analysis.     

Supply chain fragmentation,input–output tables and spillovers from foreign direct investment

The literature on the impact of multinationals on domestic firms' productivity points to supply chain linkages with multinational firms as the main channel for positive spillover effects. Local and multinational firms' relative positions in the supply chain are typically determined through the use of input–output tables. For a panel of Romanian firms, we show that the level of industry aggregation in these tables and the applied spillover definitions bear an important impact on estimated spillover effects. We find that the total impact of foreign presence – irrespective of the channel – is considerably larger when detailed IO-tables are used. When more aggregated tables are used, one is likely to misclassify a considerable number of supplier–client activity as within-industry competitive activity. Including within-industry supply and use in the measures of supplier–client activity results in a further increase of the spillover effect on local suppliers, whereas the within-industry spillover effect disappears.     

ESTIMATION OF SYMMETRIC INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES: AN EXTENSION TO BOHLIN AND WIDELL

This paper presents two optimisation models for use in the production of symmetric input–output tables (SIOTs) based on data contained within supply-use tables (SUTs). The first model produces commodity-by-commodity SIOTs derived from the selection of appropriate technology assumptions, while the second produces industry-by-industry SIOTs derived through the selection of appropriate sales structure assumptions. Both models address the problem of negative coefficients and also permit the use of rectangular SUTs as base input data. Additionally, this paper explores the development of a ‘comprehensive model’ enabling production of both commodity-by-commodity and industry-by-industry SIOTs that are conceptually and mathematically consistent.     

A CYCLING METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING INPUT–OUTPUT TABLE TIME SERIES FROM INCOMPLETE DATA

There are a number of approaches for constructing time series of input–output tables. Some authors generate an initial estimate for a base year, and then serially estimate tables for subsequent years using the balanced prior-year table as an initial estimate. Others first generate a series of initial estimates for the entire period, and then balance tables in parallel. Current serial methods are affected by sudden leaps in the magnitude of table elements, which occur straight after a period of data unavailability. Current parallel methods require two complete tables for base and final years in the same classification, and therefore do not work under misaligned or incomplete data. We present a new method for constructing input–output table time series that overcomes these problems by averaging over alternate forward and backward sweeps across the time series period. We also solve the problem of hysteresis causing forecast and backcast table estimates to differ.     

Accounting for value added embodied in trade and consumption: an intercomparison of global multiregional input–output databases

Global multiregional input–output (MRIO) tables constitute detailed accounts of the economic activity worldwide. Global trade models based on MRIO tables are being used to calculate important economic and environmental indicators such as value added in trade or the carbon footprint of nations. Such applications are highly relevant in international trade and climate policy negotiations, and consequently MRIO model results are being scrutinized for their accuracy and reproducibility. We investigate the variation in results from three major MRIO databases by comparing underlying economic data and territorial and consumption-based results across databases. Although global value-added accounts were similar across databases, we find some significant differences at the level of individual countries and sectors. Model disagreement was relatively stable from the territorial to the consumption perspective. Pairwise matrix comparison statistics indicated that the Global Trade Analysis Project and World Input-Output Database MRIO tables were overall more similar to each other than either was to the Eora database.     

Bayesian selection of technology assumptions for the transformation from supply-use to input–output tables

ABSTRACT

In the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them.     

THE ‘REST OF THE WORLD’ – ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF MISSING REGIONS IN GLOBAL MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES

Incomplete data for the economic structure of numerous countries hamper the compilation of global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) tables. By themselves, most of these countries are of only limited importance for the global economy and incumbent environmental issues. Hence, in most recent global MRIO tables these countries are either roughly estimated or summarised in one rest of the world (RoW) region. Combining a wide range of countries, this RoW region may play a significant role in global economic and environmental accounts. We conceptualise the importance of RoW in several environmental footprint accounts and present algorithms to estimate the structure of RoW. The approach utilises the information of the economic structure within known parts of the MRIO table to estimate the unknown structure. Using this method, global warming potential and employment footprints remain stable irrespective of the chosen initial estimates, whereas natural land use footprints and individual product impacts vary significantly.     

A new sub-national multi-region input–output database for Indonesia

ABSTRACT

As a large archipelago with significant geographical variation and economic diversity, Indonesia requires detailed regional information when subjected to economic modelling. While such information is available, it however has not been integrated and harmonised into a comprehensive input–output database, thus preventing economic, social, and environmental modelling for investigating sub-national regional policy questions. We present the new IndoLab, a collaborative research platform for Indonesia, enabling input–output modelling of economic, social, and environmental issues in a cloud-computing environment. Within the IndoLab researchers are for the first time able to generate a time series of regionally and sectorally detailed and comprehensive, sub-national multi-region input–output (MRIO) tables for Indonesia. By integrating a multitude of economic, social, and environmental data into a single standardised processing pipeline and harmonised data repository, the IndoLab is able to generate MRIO tables capturing up to 1148 sectors, and 495 cities and regencies. Researchers can freely choose from this detail to construct tables with customised classifications that suit their own research questions. First results from the IndoLab clearly demonstrate the unique characteristics of regions in terms of their sectors’ employment intensity. Thus, the IndoLab has great potential for investigating policy questions that cannot be comprehensively addressed using a single national database.     

REGIONAL WATER FOOTPRINTS OF THE YANGTZE RIVER: AN INTERREGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT APPROACH

Recently, researchers have applied the multi-regional input–output (MRIO) approach to water footprint (WF) analysis. The concept of interregional input–output (R-MRIO) was developed to analyse regional issues. Researchers have concentrated on the development of global or international input–output (N-MRIO) tables. Using the N-MRIO and the R-MRIO approach allows the study of global and regional issues, respectively. The WF is an indicator influenced by trade among nations and regions. However, the treatment of imports in an R-MRIO approach differs in whether international imports are separated or combined. We evaluate the effects of the difference between these models and discuss policy implications for the Yangtze River, China. The WF calculated using the combined type model is 11% larger than that by the separated type model. This difference can be ascribed to international imports, mainly internal consumption and interregional trade. We find that this difference affects social equity in water-abundant areas.     

HARMONISING NATIONAL INPUT—OUTPUT TABLES FOR CONSUMPTION-BASED ACCOUNTING — EXPERIENCES FROM EXIOPOL

Environmentally extended, multi-regional, input–output (MRIO) databases have emerged to fulfil the need for mapping the impacts of globalisation, following resource-intensive supply chains crossing country borders. EXIOBASE is one such data set designed for use in analysis relevant to resource use and European Union policy. It provides the most detailed harmonised sector classification in any MRIO and integrates data from a wide range of sources. We review the necessary steps in order to harmonise source data in MRIO databases, and describe methods to increase the product and industry detail of aggregate supply and use tables (SUTs) in order to provide a homogenous classification across countries that allows resource-specific modelling. We cover mathematical programming approaches used to reconcile data sets, and investigate some implications of reverse engineering symmetric input–output tables and disaggregating the SUTs. We focus particularly on the footprint multiplier at the product level, where policy formation is targeted.     

Hypothetical extractions from a global perspective

ABSTRACT

The hypothetical extraction method (HEM) has been widely used to measure interindustry linkages and the importance of industries. HEM considers the hypothetical situation in which a certain industry is no longer operational. HEM was developed for national economies, using national input–output tables. When performing HEM, it is assumed (often implicitly) that the input requirements that were originally provided by the extracted industry are met by additional imports in the post-extraction situation. Applying HEM to global multiregional input–output tables then causes serious problems. It is no longer sufficient to assume that the required inputs are imported. Instead, it is necessary to indicate explicitly how much is imported from each origin to replace the original inputs. Our adaptation of HEM is the global extraction method (GEM). As an illustration, GEM is applied to the extraction of the motor vehicle industry in China, the US, and Germany, using the 2014 WIOD input–output table.     

Estimating International Interindustry Linkages: Non-survey Simulations of the Asian-Pacific Economy

This paper evaluates a recently published semi-survey international input–output table for nine East-Asian countries and the USA with four non-survey estimation alternatives. A new generalized RAS procedure is used with stepwise increasing information from both import and export statistics as optimisation constraints on the four non-survey tables. The results show that the estimated table improves when increasing information from both sources is used, despite the well known inconsistencies between import and export data in trade statistics. It is concluded that the new procedure can be useful as a critical analysis of newly published (semi-)survey international tables and/or as an early updating tool during the construction process.     

Compilation of Input–Output Data from the National Accounts

In this paper, a new method is presented to derive an input–output table from a system of make and use tables. The method, which we call ‘activity technology’, is mathematically equivalent to the well-known commodity technology, but chooses another unit, i.e. the activity. We will argue that, in the activity technology model, negatives can only arise from causes such as heterogeneity and errors in the data. To apply the activity technology, very detailed make and use matrices are required, as well as additional data on the input structures of certain activities. We will describe a method that can incorporate this additional data within the activity technology framework. Statistics Netherlands has adopted the method     

EFFECTS OF SECTOR AGGREGATION ON CO2 MULTIPLIERS IN MULTIREGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSES

The past few years have seen the emergence of several global multiregional input–output (MRIO) databases. Due to the cost and complexity of developing such extensive tables, industry sectors are generally represented at a rather aggregate level. Currently, one of the most important applications of input–output analysis is environmental assessments, for which highly aggregate sectors may not be sufficient to yield accurate results. We experiment with four of the most important global MRIO systems available, analyzing the sensitivity of a set of aggregate CO₂ multipliers to aggregations in the MRIO tables used to calculate them. Across databases, we find (a) significant sensitivity to background system detail and (b) that sub-sectors contained within the same aggregate MRIO sector may exhibit highly different carbon multipliers. We conclude that the additional information provided by the extra sector detail may warrant the additional costs of compilation, due to the heterogeneous nature of economic sectors in terms of their environmental characteristics.     

Intercountry feedback and spillover effects within the international supply and use framework: a Bayesian perspective*

This paper proposes a new framework for the estimation of product-level global and interregional feedback and spillover (FS) factor multipliers. The framework is directly based on interregional supply and use tables (SUTs) that could be rectangular and gives a possibility of taking account of the inherent input–output data uncertainty problems. A Bayesian econometric approach is applied to the framework using the first version of international SUTs in the World Input–Output Database. The obtained estimates of the global and intercountry FS output effects are discussed and presented at the world, country and product levels for the period of 1995–2009.