The minimum wage and the Lithuanian labour market

This paper presents a comprehensive and non‐standard labour market analysis based on univariate and multivariate models for wages. The novelty of this paper lies in the use of non‐normalized cointegrating vectors for labour market analysis. Wages are the basis of labour market models, as well as the key factor for employees and employers; therefore, the central analytical axis is a classical wage bargaining process, where one side requires and the other side proposes a certain level of wages. Analysis is divided into two parts: foremost, a careful analysis of Lithuanian wages is conducted and a univariate model for the investigation of interactions between the minimum wage and the rest of the wages is proposed; only after the minimum wage model is drafted can the multivarate model for the whole economy be built up. Briefly, the methodology used in this article can be annotated as a synthesis of sequential theoretical and empirical considerations that combine the results of theoretical macroeconomics with data‐generating patterns and stylized facts. The model is considered as the final one only if macro‐theory preconditions, statistical prerequisites, and stylized real‐world requirements are met and fulfilled. In addition, this article gives an example and a quantitatively, as well as qualitatively, motivated suggestion as to how to incorporate minimum wages into econometric models and puts forward an explanation for why it is necessary to include minimum wage dynamics into labour market analysis. The article is nothing but an empirical case study that demonstrates how many minor details have to be taken into account until a realistic labour market model is built up. Although the paper deals with the labour market, the suitable application of time series methods is the main subject of the analysis.     

Education and the minimum wage in the United States

This article shows that, across the US states, the level of education has a causal effect on the minimum wage. More specifically, it argues that a one-percentage point increase in the proportion of college graduates implies a 0.4–0.5% decrease in the real value of the minimum wage. This is the first article that uses System GMM in order to examine the effect of education on the minimum wage. Given the structure of the available data, this is the most appropriate econometric technique. System GMM not only controls for endogeneity and for fixed effects but also maximizes the precision of the estimates by using all the available variation in the data.     

The impact of minimum wages on employment of low‐wage workers

This study provides empirical evidence on the impact of a minimum wage increase on employment of workers in the formal sector who have wages below the minimum level in Vietnam. Using the difference‐in‐differences with propensity score matching and the Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys of 2004 and 2006, the article finds that the minimum wage increase in 2005 reduced the proportion of workers having a formal sector job among low‐wage workers. Most workers who lost formal sector jobs became self‐employed.     

The effect of education on the minimum wage

This research shows for the first time that the level of education has a causal, negative effect on the minimum wage. I use 2SLS, with historical educational data as an instrument for the level of education in 2010, and I find that across the US states a one percentage point greater proportion of college graduates is associated with a real minimum wage that is lower by 1.5%–1.6%. Also, in order to control for state-level omitted variables, I regress the change in the minimum wage on the change in education and I find again a negative, and significantly at the 1% level, effect. Minimum wage is a policy that is chosen by governments according to voters’ preferences. The results of this research imply that when the level of education increases voters prefer a lower minimum wage.     

Spillover effects of a minimum wage increase – evidence from Slovenia

This article Analysis the effects of a large increase in Slovenia’s minimum wage in March 2010 on the wage distribution using an administrative matched employer–employee panel database. We find that the minimum wage hike increased the concentration of low-paid workers, creating a much more pronounced spike at the minimum, particularly in market services, and for the young, the least educated and those with the least work experience. Our analysis also shows that the March 2010 minimum wage increase also produced sizeable spillover effects. The spillover effects were higher among young and older workers, especially for wage levels near the new minimum wage. The results are based on a difference-in-differences approach comparing changes in wages during the control and treatment periods as experienced by workers in the wage group immediately above the level of the new minimum wage and workers in wage groups higher up in the wage distribution.     

Wage and employment effects of a wage norm

Most transition countries used tax‐supported wage norms in the early 1990s, as a part of their market liberalization programmes. This article analyses how a firm‐level tax (or subsidy) on deviations from a pre‐set wage norm may promote employment by rotating the labour demand curve perceived by the workers’ union around the value of the norm. We derive the conditions under which it yields a positive employment effect. We test the effect of the norm on the wages on a sample of Polish firms in 1990 and 1991. The data support the role of the wage norm on the position of the perceived labour demand curve and the role of the tax rate on its slope.     

The contribution of minimum wage valorization policy to the decline in household income inequality in Brazil: A decomposition approach

There is a vast literature that estimates the effect of the minimum wage on wage inequality in various countries. However, as the minimum wage directly affects nonlabor income of families in some countries (in the Brazilian case via the benefits of the pension system and of certain social programs), this article extends the empirical analysis by studying the effects of the minimum wage on the level of inequality of household income as a whole. To accomplish that we employ a decomposition method that gauges the contribution of the increases in the minimum wage that occurred in recent decades in Brazil through the labor and nonlabor sources of household income. The results show that the minimum wage had a contribution of 64 percent to the observed fall in income inequality between 1995 and 2014 and that pensions were the most relevant channel over this period.     

Combining minimum wage and exchange rate policy to release the external constraint on growth

In this article we analyse the combination of a minimum wage and a devaluation/depreciation so as to release the external constraint on growth. The policy maker aims at achieving both balanced trade and higher growth. These may be reached by devaluating the domestic currency, which however supports traditional industries characterized by high price elasticity and low income elasticity of demand. The release of the external constraint in the short term then yields a stronger constraint in the longer term. If traditional industries are unskilled and labour‐intensive, the setting of a minimum wage distorts the specialization towards sectors with high demand growth. Devaluation/depreciation and minimum wage may thus be combined to release both the short term and longer term external constraint. We determine the condition for such a policy to be efficient. This combined policy must come with an educational policy that supports skill upgrading. It is typically tailored to ‘advanced emerging countries’ which aim at changing their specialization without slowing their growth.     

A regional analysis of flows into and out of the UK national minimum wage

This article utilizes the panel element of the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) to identify for individual regions total inflows and outflows and hazards for those individuals paid at or below the National Minimum Wage (NMW). In particular, it examines the extent and direction of the correlation between low-pay inflows and outflows and the economic cycle. Further, it examines the impact of regional variations in the bite of the NMW on regional flows into and out of the NMW.     

The German generation internship and the minimum wage introduction: evidence from big data

The new German minimum wage applies a specific exemption clause for internships, where internships that last up to three months are exempted while internships that exceed three months are due to the minimum wage. Negative minimum wage effects on internships are heavily debated as internships are mostly non-productive. Difference-in-difference analyses that exploit establishment and regional variation in the bite of the minimum wage do not show a reduction in the number of internships. In addition, we pursue an innovative approach by using Google search data to analyse how the search intensity for internships changed in course of the minimum wage introduction. Difference-in-difference comparisons with other countries in Europe do not reveal an effect on the search for internship positions in general, but we observe a significant reduction in Google search for ‘generation internship’. This suggests that the underlying societal phenomenon of a generation entering internships without a perspective for regular jobs has lost in relevance.     

A mathematical note on Msgr. John A. Ryan's thought on the minimum wage

This paper examines Msgr. John A. Ryan's economic thought regarding the mechanics by which an increase in the minimum wage is funded. In particular, a mathematical comparative-static model is used to explore Msgr. Ryan's economic assumptions concerning the channels by which income is redistributed to workers from other factor owners. The analysis shows that Msgr. Ryan's approach includes assumptions regarding economic relationships and implies specific values of wage elasticities.     

我国最低工资标准农民工就业效应分析——对全国、地区及行业的实证研究

文章探讨了我国最低工资标准对农民工就业的影响。研究表明,最低工资标准对农民工就业的影响存在一个阈值。在该阈值之前,最低工资标准的增加会促进农民工就业,而超过该阈值后,农民工就业就会随着最低工资标准的增加而减少。进一步的地区及行业分析表明,最低工资标准东、西部为正作用,中部为负作用;制造业为正作用,建筑业为负作用。文章最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

Temporary employment and segmentation in the Spanish labour market: An empirical analysis through the study of wage differentials

We aim to add empirical evidence to the already studied field of wage differentials between temporary and permanent workers in Spain. Our goal is to find out which determinants of wage differentials are relevant when explaining such differences. Furthermore, the endogeneity of such feature (the type of contract) is controlled for. The same exercise is done with two data sets: the ECHP and the Structure of Earnings Survey. Results show that wage differentials between temporary and permanent workers are explained by the differences in the distribution of personal and job characteristics in both groups, but not by differences in the rewards for those characteristics. These results remain mostly unchanged during the second part of the 1990s, using information from five waves of the ECHP, and are robust to different changes in the econometric specification.JEL Classification: J31, J41The authors would like to thank the participants in the 3rd Summer School of Labour Economics (organised by IZA in Amersee, Munich), in a seminar in the University of Alcalá and in another seminar in the European University Institute in Florence and especially Alison Booth, Luis Toharia, Juan F. Jimeno, Juan José Dolado and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Florentino Felgueroso kindly helped us with the handling of data. The usual disclaimer applies. The ECHP is being used on behalf of the contract reference ECHP/15/00 between the University of Alcalá and EUROSTAT.     

Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany

Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced a nationwide statutory minimum wage to reduce income inequality by improving the labour income of low-wage employees. However, the employment effects of wage increases depend on time and region specific conditions and, hence, they cannot be known in advance. Because negative employment effects may offset the income gains for low-wage employees, it is important to evaluate minimum-wage policies empirically. We estimate the employment effects of the German minimum-wage introduction using panel regressions on the state-industry-level. We find a robust negative effect of the minimum wage on marginal and a robust positive effect on regular employment. In terms of the number of jobs, our results imply a negative overall effect. Hence, low-wage employees who are still employed are better off at the expense of those who have lost their jobs due to the minimum wage.     

Flexible Labour,Firm Performance and the Dutch Job Creation Miracle

Unlike internal (‘functional’) forms of flexibility of labour, external (‘numerical’) forms of flexibility (i.e. high shares of people on temporary contract or a high turnover of personnel) yield substantial savings on a firm’s wage bill. Savings on wage bills lead to higher job growth, but do not translate into higher sales growth. Externally flexible labour appears to be related to lower labour productivity growth, the effects being different for innovating vs non‐innovating firms. We discuss these findings from firm‐level and worker‐level data against the background of the Dutch job creation miracle during the 1980s and 1990s. Modest wage increases and flexibilization of labour markets may indeed create lots of jobs. However, this is likely to happen at the expense of labour productivity growth, raising serious doubts about the long‐run sustainability of a low‐productivity–high‐employment growth path.     

Tracing the impact of large minimum wage changes on household welfare in Indonesia

Minimum wage legislation has been introduced and expanded in many developed and developing countries, in the hope that it would improve the living standards of the poor and reduce inequality. This study examines the impact of large minimum wage changes in Indonesia. The results indicate serious limitations of the minimum wage for improving living standards and reducing inequality.     

劳动力异质性与中国最低工资标准就业效应分析

最低工资是当今世界各国广泛应用的经济政策,也是经济学家关心的议题。我国的最低工资标准偏低,且执行程度欠佳,所以我国的最低工资覆盖情况实际上符合部分覆盖的假设。同时由于我国劳动力的异质性以及最低工资制度的实施,导致未覆盖部门的低技能劳动力就业增多,而覆盖部门的高技能劳动力就业比例增多,总的就业效应方向并不明确。     

The effect of minimum wage on firm markup: Evidence from China

Our paper examines the impact of minimum wage on firm markup in China. We find that minimum wage generates a positive effect on firm markup. More value-enhancing innovative activities, TFP improvement, and efficient labor resource allocation are the potential channels. Further, the positive influence of minimum wage is more pronounced for privately-owned firms, for firms with higher labor intensity and firms with less financial constraints. Besides, these findings are generally robust to different estimation methods. Our results provide new insights into understanding the channels through which labor regulation may cause the change of markup for the emerging markets countries.     

The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage

Out-of-sample employment forecasts for 33 U.S. industries which are likely to be sensitive to the federal minimum wage are, more often than not, more accurate when information about the minimum wage is not taken into account. This is true even in instances where this information improves wage forecasts. When employment forecasts conditional on the minimum wage are better, the improvement is typically small. These results are invariant to the number of workers previously making less than the new minimum wage, and to the value of the minimum wage relative to industry average wages. First version received: August 1999/Final version received: July 2000     

Hit by the Silk Road: how wage coordination in Europe mitigates the China shock*

Coordination in collective wage setting can constrain potential monopoly gains to unions in non-tradable industries. Countries with national wage coordination can thus stabilize overall employment against fluctuations and shocks in the world economy. We investigate this argument by exploring within-country variation in exposure to competition from China in 13 European countries. Our estimates demonstrate that in countries with uncoordinated wage setting, regions with higher import exposure experienced a marked fall in employment, while countries with wage coordination experienced no such employment effects. We show that our findings are robust to alternative measures of wage coordination, industry classifications, and trade exposure.