Unemployment and interindustry labour mobility in Canada in the 1980s

The determinants of interindustry mobility of labour, and its relationship to the unemployment rate is examined, using micro-data on Canadian workers from 1980/81, 1982/83 and 1985/86. It contrasts the implications of the ‘dynamic reallocation’ model (Lilien, 1982) in which rising aggregate unemployment is due to in creased dispersion in the net hiring rates of firms (implying positive covariance of interindustry mobility and unemployment rates) with the older ‘Keynesian’ perspective that high unemployment ‘chills’ labour market mobility, implying a neative relationship. Qualified support is obtained for the ‘chilling’ model, as well as standard results on the role of job tenure, hours worked, etc. The general moral is the cyclical sensitivity of labour market behaviour, i.e. individuals appear to react to the aggregate unemployment rate.     

Does the unemployment invariance hypothesis hold for Romania?

This article questions whether the unemployment invariance hypothesis of Layard et al. (2005), which states that movements in labour force do not significantly affect unemployment rates, holds true for Romania. Using quarterly labour force data for the 1996–2012 period, we explore the time-series properties of the two variables. We find that unemployment rates and participation rates have unit roots, and that they are not cointegrated, meaning that no significant long-term relationship exists between them. The analysis carried out on the first differences of unemployment rates and participation rates shows discouraged and added worker effects for Romania’s female labour force. This conclusion diverges from findings that point out to a stable, long-term relationship between unemployment and participation in several developed countries (Japan, Sweden, USA) and shows that Romanian labour market is highly adaptive, where changes in labour force participation do not lead to increases in unemployment. This finding can help model the influence of adverse developments such as ageing and emigration, and show their true impact beyond demographic doom scenarios. It also points out the role played by labour demand in shaping the evolution of the Romanian labour market.     

The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

The portfolio behaviour of pension funds in the US: an econometric analysis of changes since the new regulation of 1974

In most Western countries, the rate of unemployment has shown a rising trend over the last decades. One of the standard explanations for this is that the ‘natural’ rate of unemployment has risen. In order to investigate this hypothesis, a simple demand–supply model of the Finnish labour market was constructed and estimated. It is proposed that if the development of the unemployment rates can be explained is such a traditional model framework, this would suggest that changes in the ‘natural’ rate are not, after all, the crucial reason for the increasing unemployment rates.

According to the results, the simple model was able to account for the changes in the unemployment rate very well. Furthermore, they seem to support a traditional Keynesian view of the problem, emphasizing output level and labour productivity as the main explanatory variables. Indirectly, it can be concluded that there seem to be no clear signs of a rising ‘natural’ rate of unemployment.     

Financial constraints and unemployment equilibrium

The aim of this paper is to show that a robust determination of unemployment equilibria can be based on the integration of credit rationing into a general equilibrium model. We first review some of the Keynesian macroeconomic models. We show that the problems bequeathed by Keynes’ legacy are only partially solved by the strand of the new Keynesian economics based on market imperfections and endogenous rigidities. In order to overcome these problems we refer to credit rationing. In particular, we build a simple general equilibrium model in which prices are–in principle–perfectly flexible and credit rationing implies unemployment equilibria.     

Institutions,capital stock and wage setting in Spain

This article confronts two distinct perspectives of the labour market: the institutionalist view?–?highlighting equilibrium and labour market institutions?–?and the Chain Reaction Theory?–?emphasizing dynamics and the growth drivers’ role in labour market performance. We consider the ratio of public to private capital stock as a growth driver relevant to the labour market; provide different economic rationales for this ratio to exert a negative influence in wage setting; and explore its empirical relevance in the context of a wage setting curve for Spain comprising the standard variables. There are two main results. First, several institutional variables taken to be critical to explain unemployment in the mainstream literature are not relevant for the Spanish wage setting curve. Second, there is a negative and significant influence of the ratio of public to private capital stock, which is robust to different specifications of the wage setting equation.     

Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve

The canonical new Keynesian Phillips curve has become a standard component of models designed for monetary policy analysis. However, in the basic new Keynesian model, there is no unemployment, all variation in labor input occurs along the intensive hours margin, and the driving variable for inflation depends on workers’ marginal rates of substitution between leisure and consumption. In this paper, we incorporate a theory of unemployment into the new Keynesian theory of inflation and empirically test its implications for inflation dynamics. We show how a traditional Phillips curve linking inflation and unemployment can be derived and how the elasticity of inflation with respect to unemployment depends on structural characteristics of the labor market such as the matching technology that pairs vacancies with unemployed workers. We estimate on US data the Phillips curve generated by the model. While we can reject the baseline new Keynesian Phillips curve in favor of the search-frictions specification, we show it is still too stylized to fully describe the dynamics of firms’ marginal costs.     

Technology–Policy Interaction in Frictional Labour-Markets

Does capital-embodied technological change play an important role in shaping labour-market outcomes? To address this question, we develop a model with vintage capital and search-matching frictions where irreversible investment in new vintages of capital creates heterogeneity in productivity among firms, matched as well as vacant. We demonstrate that capital-embodied technological change reduces labour demand and raises equilibrium unemployment and unemployment durations. In addition, the presence of labour-market regulations (unemployment benefits, payroll taxes, and firing costs) exacerbates these effects. Thus, the model is qualitatively consistent with some key features of the European labour-market experience relative to that of the U.S.: it features a sharper rise in unemployment and a sharper fall in the vacancy rate and the labour share. A calibrated version of our model suggests that this technology–policy interaction could explain a sizeable fraction of the observed differences between the U.S. and Europe.     

Market forms and effective demand: Keynesian results with perfect competition ∗

In recent years there has been a flourishing of models with microfoundations based on imperfect (or monopolistic) competition that claim to yield Keynesian results which, it is held, are incompatible with perfect competi-tion. The paper shows that Keynes’s results do not depend on market forms but are contingent on his treatment of investment. In Keynes’s analysis, the existence of underemployment equilibria is demonstrated regardless of the assumed market form. Far from taking into account the importance of investment, recent models with ‘Keynesian results’ ignore investment altogether.

The article argues that if the investment demand function, with its distinctive characteristics, is removed, involuntary unemployment can be explained only by imperfections or rigidities that prevent producers from pushing their supply up to the level of full employment. A conclusion that Keynes wanted to avoid.

The introduction of a hypothesis of market forms different from imperfect competition may be useful in order to develop macroeconomics along more realistic lines, however, as the conclusions of the paper suggest, this hypothesis loses its analytical power if made separately from a satisfactory treatment of investment.     

Sectoral shifts and unemployment persistence

This paper deals with possible explanations of unemployment persistence within a sectoral approach to the Austrian labour market. First the concept of unemployment persistence is specified in terms of the time series properties of the unemployment rate. Sectoral job gains and job losses form the labour market flows in this approach. The standard matching model is replaced then by a model of the competition between the unemployed and new entrants in the labour market for new jobs as an ‘adding up’ demand system of the AIDS type. The estimations of different system specifications indicate, that the sectoral structure of job gains plays a role in the competition mechanism between unemployed workers and new entrants.     

国际失业属性理论回溯

失业属性是失业理论发展的重要观察视角.本文基于对失业属性的认识.从凯恩斯对劳动供求数量失衡的观察到"后凯恩斯主义"对劳动供求结构失衡的认识和人力资本理论对劳动供求质量失衡的认识,以及发展经济学对发展中国家工业化过程中劳动数量供给特殊性的观察,正是在人们对失业属性的认识逐步深化过程中,失业理论得到了不断发展.     

Unemployment,long-term employment relations and the determination of unit labour cost growth in US manufacturing industries

This paper examines the effect that unemployment and long-term employment relations exert on the determination of unit labour costs. The paper proceeds in three sections. Section one analyses the relationship between labour market conditions and unit labour costs by developping a simple model of a firm that relies upon dismissal threats to elicit work effort. The comparative static properties of this model suggest that a tightening of labour markets may result in an increase in unit labour costs. In addition, it is argued that the labour market disequilibrium that occurs at full employment levels of unemployment will likely result in an increase in the growth rate of unit labour costs. The second section of the paper reviews diverse theories of long-term employment relations (LTERs), each of which suggest that the presence of LTERs ought to reduce the effect that labour market conditions exert on unit labour costs. The third section of the paper presents empirical estimates of the effect unemployment and LTERs exert on unit labour costs. The central empirical findings can be briefly summarized. First, movements towards full employment increase the growth rate of wages, reduce the growth rate of labour productivity and increase the growth rate of unit labour costs. Secondly, where long-term employment relations are prevalent, the effect of unemployment on wage, labour productivity, and unit labour cost growth is diminished. The paper concludes by discussing the implications these findings have for effort regulation models and the macroeconomic foundations of microeconomic labour market structures     

An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data

This article proposes empirical tools to account for the role of heterogeneities in the labour matching process, and shows an application to the Andalusian labour market which relies on individual data. The central idea of the paper is that the labour market is segmented, and this segmentation can be treated empirically by grouping workers, jobs and matches into labour groups according to their characteristics. In a segmented labour market the probability that a match occurs in a particular job group affects the probability that a match occurs in a particular worker group or vice versa. We propose two empirical measures related to this idea: propensity to match, and segmentation in worker and job groups. The usefulness of this empirical framework is shown by its application to different labour market analyses. Firstly, we use a clustering methodology, based on a similarity measure, to obtain a better overview of the structure of the labour market. Secondly, we propose a measure of mobility based on our similarity measure, and estimate a regression model that relates mobility to worker and job characteristics and to the economic cycle. Finally, these tools are included in an unemployment duration model. The proposed methodology may be useful in labour intermediation by helping seekers to follow a ‘roadmap’ of successful paths.     

Search, Nash bargaining and rule-of-thumb consumers

This paper analyses the effects of introducing two typical Keynesian features, namely rule-of-thumb (RoT) consumers and consumption habits, into a standard labour market search model. RoT consumers use the margin that hours and wage negotiation provides them to improve their lifetime utility, by narrowing the gap in utility with respect to Ricardian consumers. This margin for intertemporal optimisation has not been studied yet, because this class of restricted agents has been mainly used in models with no equilibrium unemployment. Our approach allows for a deeper study of the effects of shocks on vacancies, unemployment, hours, wages and how they interact. As habits increase, RoT consumers find it optimal, after a positive technology shock, to negotiate lower hours and higher wages, and this mechanism reduces the simulated correlation between the real wage (or productivity) and total hours to values closer to those obtained empirically. Thus, with the interaction of RoT consumers and consumption habits, the labour market search model improves significantly in reproducing some of the stylised facts characterising the US labour market.     

Imperfectly competitive cycles with Keynesian and Walrasian features

We consider a multi-sector overlapping generations model with oligopolistic firms in the output markets and wage-setting trade unions in the labour markets. A coordination problem between firms creates multiple temporary equilibria which are either Walrasian or of the Keynesian unemployment type. There exist many deterministic and stochastic equilibrium cycles fluctuating between Keynesian recession and Walrasian boom periods with arbitrarily long phases in each regime. The cycles are in accordance with certain empirical regularities. Money is neutral and superneutral, but appropriate countercyclical fiscal policies stabilize the cycles in a textbook Keynesian way.     

Cross‐Country Differences in Unemployment: Fiscal Policy,Unions, and Household Preferences in General Equilibrium

We develop a five‐period overlapping generations model with individuals who differ by ability and with an imperfect labour market (union wage setting) for individuals of lower ability. The model explains human capital formation, hours worked, and unemployment within one coherent framework. Its predictions match the differences in the unemployment rate across 12 OECD countries remarkably well. A Shapley decomposition of these differences reveals an almost equal role for fiscal policy variables and union preferences. As to fiscal policy, differences in unemployment benefits play a much more important role than tax differences. Differences in households’ taste for leisure are unimportant.     

The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates

This article presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states – employment and unemployment – we consider a third state – out of the labour force. Second, we study net rather than gross flows, where net refers to the balance of flows between any two labour market states. Distinguishing a third state is important because the labour market flows to and from that state are quantitatively important. Focusing on net flows simplifies the complexity of interactions between the flows and allows us to perform a dynamic analysis in a structural vector-autoregression framework. We find that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drives the unemployment rate and the participation rate in opposite directions while a shock to the net flow from not in the labour force to unemployment drives the rates in the same direction.     

A DISEQUILIBRIUM MODEL UNDER BILATERAL MONOPOLY*

The paper points out a crucial difference between the conventional disequilibrium macro model and partial equilibrium models of wage bargaining, In the former the real wage is constrained to be less than or equal to the marginal product, whereas in the latter the real wage is frequently constrained to be greater than or equal to the marginal product. The paper builds a disequilibrium model under bilateral monopoly, paying explicit attention to the labour market. The well-known union model of McDonald and Solow forms the basis of the labour market analysis. Just as the three regions of Keynesian Unemployment, Classical Unemployment and Repressed Inflation are configured in the conventional case, an equivalent exercise is undertaken but with the addition of a collectively negotiated wage. The particular wage agreement used is the Nash bargain. The framework is then used to account for the unusual events that occurred in the UK labour market 1979–81, particularly the unprecedented rise in unemployment with no diminution of the inflation rate. It suggests that there was a shift in bargaining advantage in favour of employers, which resulted in an increased share of profits in national income. This regime change exacerbated the unfavourable circumstances for labour, which existed at that time.     

Labour market institutions in open economy: Sectoral reallocations,aggregate adjustments,and spillovers

We introduce frictional unemployment in a multiworker heterogeneous firm model with a dynamic matching process, one‐ and two‐sector equilibria, and international markets. A change in labour market policies transforms the share of exporters and affects average productivity. The closure of equilibrium with or without sectoral arbitrage plays an important role in generating macro‐level outcomes for employment subsidies. Unemployment benefits, on the other hand, make unemployment and openness rise, independently of sectoral reallocations. We also find that simultaneous implementation of labour market policies remove potential gain in the trade share, and, when it comes to unemployment benefits, may even be detrimental.     

Devaluation in a neo-Keynesian temporary equilibrium

We analyse a two sector open economy model in which prices are rigid and markets clear by quantity adjustments. We consider the case of Keynesian unemployment (excess supplies of labour and of the non-traded good), and derive conditions under which devaluation will be expansionary and will improve the balance of trade.